News Article: Coronavirus Part 3: Social Distance Yourself

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DaGap

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Tough to read that you have to close but it only makes fiscal sense.

Like a lot of people weve been barely keeping our heads above water but im not willing to sacrifice everything Ive worked for over the last 20 years.
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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Yeah its always an interesting thing.

Shut-ins happen then the stalling of capital expansions then demand resumes and continues to climb but because additiaonal production takes time to bring online you have a price surge.

If the saudis werent twits the would have let oil sit at 70 per barrel and everything would be balanced

The last brilliant price war idea costed the Saudi's 400B (250B of reserves burned, and took on 150B of debt). Likely they could have kept adding to their reserves if they gradually cut to keep prices up. I think i saw an estimate that overall the price war costed the Saudi's ~$600B vs supporting prices. Who knows what other benefits there would have been by letting shale burn through the Permian sweet spots with far less efficient methods than they were forced to create to survive the price crash.

Wonder how much this genius price war will cost the Saudi's. Guess it will cost other people too, and that's all that matters? The imaginary zero sum game that no one seems to win. Except the consumers I guess with cheap gasoline.
 

DaGap

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The last brilliant price war idea costed the Saudi's 400B (250B of reserves burned, and took on 150B of debt). Likely they could have kept adding to their reserves if they gradually cut to keep prices up. I think i saw an estimate that overall the price war costed the Saudi's ~$600B vs supporting prices. Who knows what other benefits there would have been by letting shale burn through the Permian sweet spots with far less efficient methods than they were forced to create to survive the price crash.

Wonder how much this genius price war will cost the Saudi's.

The last price war actually made sense in a market share perspective. Shale gas became viable in the USA.

This one makes no sense its just the new prince being special
 

oobga

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The last price war actually made sense in a market share perspective. Shale gas became viable in the USA.

This one makes no sense its just the new prince being special

Knowing the result though, the last one was a mistake. It would have been far better to let shale live like a hog in a fat house and just burn through good drilling locations with 2014/2015 technology. They suppressed the drilling, burned through their reserves keeping prices low, and then they finally gave up and shale went through 3 years of innovation before going wild on the good land, and that just kept prices low anyways. Saudi's still barely balancing the books by the end of it, $400B poorer than when the war they started began.
 

DaGap

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Knowing the result though, the last one was a mistake. It would have been far better to let shale live like a hog in a fat house and just burn through good drilling locations with 2014/2015 technology. They suppressed the drilling, burned through their reserves keeping prices low, and then they finally gave up and shale went through 3 years of innovation before going wild on the good land, and that just kept prices low anyways, Saudi's still barely balancing the books by the end of it.

Im guessing they will use this pandemic to suppress their population further resulting in the requirement for a lower oil price as right now they need around 86 per barrel to maintain all their social programs.

If anything Trump maybe be able to use the threat of moving the military out of their backyard if they dont know this shit off cause right now USA is the only reason iran hasnt moved in and in iraq usa soldiers are coming back home
 

CantHaveTkachev

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No you don't need another explosion of cases. It is a new infection rate of 110% which is an incremental daily increase and there is nothing to suggest that in the USA the incremental daily increase of cases is going to slow down.

Your number of cases is irrelevant as there was almost no testing being done in New York State March 4. There were/are probably hundreds of thousands walking around the USA right now who are positive and infectious but not presenting any or little symptoms. Right now one lab alone is reporting a backlog of 160,000 tests.
it actually does matter where the infection rate is though...a 110% incremental daily increase in Minnesota (689 positive cases) is completely different than a 110% in NY...unless you think New York is only gonna get worse

So at 110% per day you reach 1,000,000 cases in two weeks, and it the virus is doubling in new cases right now at a rate of every 3-4 days.

where are you getting your numbers?
United States Coronavirus: 215,215 Cases and 5,110 Deaths - Worldometer
according to the site above, it took over a week (March 25-April 1st) for cases to double
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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Im guessing they will use this pandemic to suppress their population further resulting in the requirement for a lower oil price as right now they need around 86 per barrel to maintain all their social programs.

If anything Trump maybe be able to use the threat of moving the military out of their backyard if they dont know this shit off cause right now USA is the only reason iran hasnt moved in and in iraq usa soldiers are coming back home

Yeah, it looks like the USA is really not interested in seeing their producers decimated. Sounds like the administration is giving it a lot of attention and has a plan.

Definitely agree with you too. This time around it's a pure ego trip by MBS.
 

48g90a138pts

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Jun 30, 2016
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It wont help 99% of the businesses

Business will have to make 4 payrolls, 2 months rents and expenses and still no help for the business

You need to prove 30% revenue loss because of Covid
You need to provide 25% of the wage
You only get 75% of the wage
And you get to do this every month

The only thing this does is give the Feds a different way of giving people ei

For a business owner thats only part of the problem

I sent 12 guys home today with pink slips. And informed my account to get the books ready for closing the company

What I've read is the business doesn't have to provide the 25% if it can't afford too. It was just Trudeau blabbering that Businesses should. But he's so out of touch from reality, we all know this.

I'm deeply sorry for you and your family and your employees. Truly am
 
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5 Mins 4 Ftg

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it actually does matter where the infection rate is though...a 110% incremental daily increase in Minnesota (689 positive cases) is completely different than a 110% in NY...unless you think New York is only gonna get worse

where are you getting your numbers?
United States Coronavirus: 215,215 Cases and 5,110 Deaths - Worldometer
according to the site above, it took over a week (March 25-April 1st) for cases to double

I think the number of cases will increase as hot spots in Louisiana, Florida, Chicago, Detroit and California get hotter. States that just implemented stay at home orders or have yet to will also see large growth over the next two weeks. Cases were expected to increase in New York till mid April according to Cuomo.

Numbers I have been using are Worldometer and the press briefings from Fauci who stated cases will be doubling every 3-4 days now.

United States Coronavirus: 215,215 Cases and 5,110 Deaths - Worldometer

I have been tracking US numbers on a spreadsheet since March 26. From March 26 to March 30 cases rose from 85k to 164k, nearly double over 4 days.

USATotal CasesDaily New Cases% IncDaily Deaths% IncTotal DeathsDeath Rate %
Mar 2685,43517,2241.222681.081,2951.52%
Mar 27104,12618,6911.094011.251,6961.63%
Mar 28123,57819,4521.045251.312,2211.80%
Mar 29143,49119,9131.023620.692,5831.80%
Mar 30163,78820,2971.025581.543,1411.92%
Mar 31188,53024,7421.229121.634,0532.15%
Apr 1215,00326,4731.071,0491.155,1022.37%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

DaGap

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What I've read is the business doesn't have to provide the 25% if it can't afford too. It was just Trudeau blabbering that Businesses should. But he's so out of touch from reality, we all know this.

I'm deeply sorry for you and your family and your employees. Truly am

They knew it was coming it was only a matter of time. I am paying them till the end of this month so hopefully they will get that money from the gov before then.
 
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