OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VII - READ THE OP

[eco's bones]

My wife was sick for maybe three-fours weeks from the middle of February to several days into March. She passed it to me and I had it from the end end of February through maybe the first week of March. I remember cancelling a dental appointment after they called me a week before and asked if I had been out of the country-no....or had been sick recently-yes. It was like a cold for me though---all in my head, nothing in my chest and I didn't lose smell or taste. My wife's though was a lot worse. She's been coughing off and on since February right until now.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Well, I’d wager there are more people who had mild Covid, or were asymptomatic carriers, and don’t figure into the total of confirmed cases because they’ve never been tested, than there have been unattributed deaths. The percentage of Covid infections that result in death would be lower than reported because there’s likely a large abundance of cases that have never been counted. May not really change much in the grand scheme of things, but it seems difficult to argue that the number of unreported positives is quite large due to cases too mild to bother getting tested, or completely asymptomatic situations.

It is possible and I do tend to agree. I suspect at some point in the future (no time soon) we see a roll back on the official COVID-19 death count, much like the severe flu season a couple of years ago. I think they revised down the death count by 20-25%. Combine the roll back with a more accurate infection rate and I still believe the fatality rate ultimately drops to sub 1%, potentially below .5%.

I'd also point to the USC study that I posted twice (I think in April and then the follow up study in May) that estimated between 4-6% of the adult population had COVID antibodies and those were done nearly 6 and 10 weeks ago. It begins to paint a picture that is still unsettling, but not as bad as we once thought.

I'm also an eternal optimist so I understand that others may not share my hopeful view.

 

[LokiDog]

It is possible and I do tend to agree. I suspect at some point in the future (no time soon) we see a roll back on the official COVID-19 death count, much like the severe flu season a couple of years ago. I think they revised down the death count by 20-25%. Combine the roll back with a more accurate infection rate and I still believe the fatality rate ultimately drops to sub 1%, likely below .5%.

I'd also point to the USC study that I posted twice (I think in April and then the follow up study in May) that estimated between 4-6% of the adult population had COVID antibodies and those were done nearly 6 and 10 weeks ago. It begins to paint a picture that is still unsettling, but not as bad as we once thought.

I'm also an eternal optimist so I understand that others may not share my hopeful view.

Well, Mr. Swanson, I usually make a point of staying away from this thread but I tend to agree with your projections and assumptions, as well as your optimism. I’d say we’re parked in similar garages.

 

[Irishguy42]

 

[Off Sides]

The way the CDC calculates flu hospitalizations and deaths is apparently by using the confirmed cases/deaths and then by applying a multiplier.

Second, national rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations and in-hospital death are adjusted for the frequency of influenza testing and the sensitivity of influenza diagnostic assays, using a multiplier approach (3).

How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC

I do not think they are counting Covid hospitalizations and deaths the same way, I think they are counting them by confirmed tests, and what is specified on the death certificate. (and before we get into the idea they are fudging those numbers, remember that would be considered fraud)

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[East Coast Bias]

It is possible and I do tend to agree. I suspect at some point in the future (no time soon) we see a roll back on the official COVID-19 death count, much like the severe flu season a couple of years ago. I think they revised down the death count by 20-25%. Combine the roll back with a more accurate infection rate and I still believe the fatality rate ultimately drops to sub 1%, potentially below .5%.

I'd also point to the USC study that I posted twice (I think in April and then the follow up study in May) that estimated between 4-6% of the adult population had COVID antibodies and those were done nearly 6 and 10 weeks ago. It begins to paint a picture that is still unsettling, but not as bad as we once thought.

I'm also an eternal optimist so I understand that others may not share my hopeful view.

I do agree that the data will change as reporting improves, states internally audit results, testing gets better, etc. Especially because things get so crazy in areas that get largely hit. So I wouldn't disagree with this point, except deeper analysis doesn't support that thus far for COVID.

Anecdotally, I'm in the life insurance business (data analytics specifically). The risk reports I keep viewing are just not great. Our company has had more claims than projected. Our LTD/STD/AD&D business claims are up. Most of these companies assumed sick claims would stay flat for disability bc lockdowns kept people from injuring themselves. They're up 30% though - so many risk guys are wearing it right now. ha.

The Financial Times has been tracking excess mortality. It's not COVID diagnosed deaths. It's overall deaths by time period 2020 vs past years. If we're really overstating deaths or mistaking COVID deaths from other flu/respiratory/etc illnesses, than this should eliminate the noise. To further that, so many people were in lockdown in countries that you'd expect to see a drop in Non-COVID deaths due to accident reduction. Which we definitely saw in ER visit data.

But the numbers just aren't supporting this. Again it's not a closed case either way. I just wouldn't bank on this becoming an event we massively overstated. We'll see how this turns up - if there's one thing we can definitely say if we don't have a 100% grasp of the impact of COVID. Nothing is final - we are learning daily. But I would say that people saying "they're calling everything a COVID death to juice the numbers" or "hospital mark everyone dying as COVID because it helps them get money" are just flat out wrong. (not that you're saying that). This point of view is dangerous and really shouldn't be taken seriously unless supported with evidence of specific crimes (because it would be criminal).

UK is up 50% above average through June 12th.
France up 24% as of June 7th
Germany up 6% as of May 24th
Netherlands up 31st - June 10th
Spain 56% - June 7th
US 25% - May 23
Peru up 141% - June 17
Ecuador up 112% - June 17

That US number reflects the Northeast getting hammered really. NJ up 113% as of May 30th. NYC up 251% May 30. These numbers are bonkers and dont' even account for the south/west yet.



Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries start to reopen | Free to read

 

[Tawnos]

So my brother in law has
the sore throat, fatigue, and loss of taste that they are some of the initial symptoms. He went and got tested: came back negative. Great news. I had seen him on Sunday (albeit socially distanced, though not masked).

I was pretty convinced he was going to be positive. My mental state feels normal for the first time since those symptoms started on Tuesday. Huge relief.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I do agree that the data will change as reporting improves, states internally audit results, testing gets better, etc. Especially because things get so crazy in areas that get largely hit. So I wouldn't disagree with this point, except deeper analysis doesn't support that thus far for COVID.

Anecdotally, I'm in the life insurance business (data analytics specifically). The risk reports I keep viewing are just not great. Our company has had more claims than projected. Our LTD/STD/AD&D business claims are up. Most of these companies assumed sick claims would stay flat for disability bc lockdowns kept people from injuring themselves. They're up 30% though - so many risk guys are wearing it right now. ha.

The Financial Times has been tracking excess mortality. It's not COVID diagnosed deaths. It's overall deaths by time period 2020 vs past years. If we're really overstating deaths or mistaking COVID deaths from other flu/respiratory/etc illnesses, than this should eliminate the noise. To further that, so many people were in lockdown in countries that you'd expect to see a drop in Non-COVID deaths due to accident reduction. Which we definitely saw in ER visit data.

But the numbers just aren't supporting this. Again it's not a closed case either way. I just wouldn't bank on this becoming an event we massively overstated. We'll see how this turns up - if there's one thing we can definitely say if we don't have a 100% grasp of the impact of COVID. Nothing is final - we are learning daily. But I would say that people saying "they're calling everything a COVID death to juice the numbers" or "hospital mark everyone dying as COVID because it helps them get money" are just flat out wrong. (not that you're saying that). This point of view is dangerous and really shouldn't be taken seriously unless supported with evidence of specific crimes (because it would be criminal).

UK is up 50% above average through June 12th.
France up 24% as of June 7th
Germany up 6% as of May 24th
Netherlands up 31st - June 10th
Spain 56% - June 7th
US 25% - May 23
Peru up 141% - June 17
Ecuador up 112% - June 17

That US number reflects the Northeast getting hammered really. NJ up 113% as of May 30th. NYC up 251% May 30. These numbers are bonkers and dont' even account for the south/west yet.



Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries start to reopen | Free to read

Oh I am not. Not even close. I don't know how anyone could have that assumption. Even if right now we revised COVID-19 death count down by 20%, we would still be at over 100k in the US in 3.5 months.

I kind of agree with your point on the calling everything a COVID death to juice the numbers... kind of. I've heard people say that literally everything is being called a COVID death. That is 100% grade A bullshit and borderline dangerous. Murders are not being reported as COVID-19 deaths as some have suggested. Car accident fatalities are not being reported as COVID-19 deaths. Now, what is being reported as a COVID-19 death is if a person was critically injured in a car accident, tested positive for COVID and then died at the hospital. I've had nurses in NY, GA and Colorado all confirm this (not this specific scenario three times mind you, but similar events). It happens. Is it enough to "juice" the numbers? I honestly don't think so.

With that being said, I've never been one to give much thought to Occam's razor. That has changed drastically over the last 4-6 months.

 

[sbjnyc]

The fatality rate of known cases is still somewhere between 3-6% but that's not accounting for cases that are too mild to even requiring testing and reporting of which there are many.

The good news is that the CFR in the USA has been declining after it had been increasing even with more testing. Now it's under 5.6%. The IFR is generally projected to be anywhere from 0.1% to 0.4%. The IFR from the swine flu pandemic was 0.02%. I'm under the impression accurate testing for covid is still an issue.

I think he could be referring to the fact that there were people who died of COVID that were never properly diagnosed as a COVID death and there also hospitals that were so overrun that nearly anything viral was being marked as a COVID death.

I posted a number of times here about the huge excess of pneumonia deaths reported by the CDC based on how they were initially coded. It's likely most of them will be reclassified as covid, At the time I think it would resulted in a 25% increase in the number just for that.

 

[Leonardo87]

not good. Really upset by this

 

[eco's bones]

That is awful and portends a very long and hard road ahead. When there are that many in a single day that means there are a lot of others out there that have been passing it around.

 

[Leonardo87]

That is awful and portends a very long and hard road ahead. When there are that many in a single day that means there are a lot of others out there that have been passing it around.

They just suspended all alcohol sales at bars in Florida. Need to do more. They are now where we were back in April.

 

[sbjnyc]

 

[eco's bones]

They just suspended all alcohol sales at bars in Florida. Need to do more. They are now where we were back in April.

It's going to spill into the neighboring states of Alabama and Georgia. What we really have needed all along is a coordinated national response. Short of that a coordinated regional response would be very helpful.

 

[Leonardo87]

It's going to spill into the neighboring states of Alabama and Georgia. What we really have needed all along is a coordinated national response. Short of that a coordinated regional response would be very helpful.

I hope they really enforce that regional quarantine rule here. We just went through hell don’t need it to happen again so soon. I still expect a 2nd wave by end of the year but still think we will be more prepared and won’t be as bad.

 

[bl02]

They just suspended all alcohol sales at bars in Florida. Need to do more. They are now where we were back in April.

Weren't we seeing almost 800 deaths a day in April. Still almost 10 times the amount of Florida.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Has anyone went back to work in Manhattan? Thankfully my boss is being very open-minded in terms of letting anyone who wants to continue working from home to do so so I still haven't been back in the office. I saw a news reporter on TV live in Midtown around noon and the sidewalk behind him looked completely empty which is bonkers for noon time on a nice day like today in Midtown. Just wondering if anyone else has noticed any real change in the boroughs since phase 2.

 

[Riche16]

I live in FL and always felt we weren't taking things seriously here. Today was the 1st time I've seen a sign saying "YOU MUST WEAR A MASK TO ENTER"

Closed bars again today... what does that tell you? Maybe opened things up too soon?

Places clearly get hit at different times... you can flatten the curve in one spot and watch it skyrocket elsewhere... that's why experts say we're still in the 1st wave.

 

[NYSPORTS]

good lord.

 

[Leonardo87]

I live in FL and always felt we weren't taking things seriously here. Today was the 1st time I've seen a sign saying "YOU MUST WEAR A MASK TO ENTER"

Closed bars again today... what does that tell you? Maybe opened things up too soon?

Places clearly get hit at different times... you can flatten the curve in one spot and watch it skyrocket elsewhere... that's why experts say we're still in the 1st wave.

I don’t know how Disney can open next week. Out of their minds. Anaheim Already delayed their re-opening.

 

[Riche16]

I don’t know how Disney can open next week. Out of their minds. Anaheim Already delayed their re-opening.

Sadly I think a lot is going to change in this state and others like it (AZ, TX etc).

We locked down months ago when others were being slammed (rightfully so), people went nuts & we ran out of TP, wipes, sanitizer etc. Now it's about to happen again only this time the numbers here won't look anywhere near as good. All those jokes about nursing homes and old folks in FL may come all too true.

This am I was in a psuedo tight and slightly crowded store... I was the only one (employees included) wearing a mask.

 

[Black Tank]

In the UK the domino effect of COVID is massive. Earlier in this thread someone posted some great stats about excess mortality compared to this time period last year. The UK percentage increase is very high because people are hesitating to use the National Health Service for true life threatening conditions such as heart attacks, strokes and even things like food poisoning and drug ODs. Unlike the US, here there has been a very high support rate for the government's strategy which was specifically called "Protect the NHS". The real kick in the balls going to be people who have sat on things like melanoma and other cancers which will have a delayed higher than normal mortality rate which could skew figures for years.

 

[romba]

Anti-mask rallies are really a thing? REALLY? Why can’t anything be done with sense anymore. Yea, we need to open the economy, but that doesn’t mean COVID is a progressive fairy tale construed to undermine Trump.

 

[eco's bones]

The virus doesn't care about our skin tone or what political party (or who) we vote for. Doesn't care if we're religious or not or what we think about second amendment rights or climate change or other political issues or what state we live in or country we come from. It stays alive by going from person to person---we (if we allow it) are simply part of its pathway that allows it to continue growing if we put ourselves in its path. The idea of curbing social activity--of social distancing---of wearing a mask in public is to take oneself off the path and by limiting its spread eventually kill it and it's worked here in the northeast--it's worked in various countries around the world.

 

[eco's bones]

Looks like another 9,494 new cases in Florida today. Over 18,000 new cases in the last two days. This is not going to be sustainable for a hospital system I'm afraid. If you're living in Florida and don't have it and have an option of going elsewhere it's probably a good idea. There are lots more walking around with this that are going to be the new cases tomorrow and the day after. Florida I'm afraid is at the bottom of a mountain that has to be climbed and Governor DeSantis is going to have to take some drastic measures and I'm not sure he's up to the job.