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OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

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Ola

Ola

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sbjnyc said:
They used the model in Spain a few months ago according to this article.

The contagion rate of the Covid-19 will decrease in "seven or ten days", according to mathematical models | Spain's News
Click to expand...

Yeah, and it seems to have been correct everywhere. I don’t get an exact date on that article, but it’s in early March somewhere and Spain’s numbers started to drop in late March.

Of course, if you believe that you have 1,000 cases somewhere, and you in fact have 100,000 cases, it will of course start to drop later which I think has been the case with a few early Gompertz models.
 
sbjnyc

sbjnyc

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Ola said:
Yeah, and it seems to have been correct everywhere. I don’t get an exact date on that article, but it’s in early March somewhere and Spain’s numbers started to drop in late March.

Of course, if you believe that you have 1,000 cases somewhere, and you in fact have 100,000 cases, it will of course start to drop later which I think has been the case with a few early Gompertz models.
Click to expand...
My assumption is that the curve differs as a result of preventative actions. If the virus was left on its own like in Sweden I wonder if the model would still work. BTW I found an actuarial journal from 1861 with a couple of articles on Gompertz, one of which shows he wasn't appreciated in his own time.

Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
 
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Ola

Ola

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sbjnyc said:
My assumption is that the curve differs as a result of preventative actions. If the virus was left on its own like in Sweden I wonder if the model would still work. BTW I found an actuarial journal from 1861 with a couple of articles on Gompertz, one of which shows he wasn't appreciated in his own time.

Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
Click to expand...

Thanks!

Good question. I think model only works if the same restriction is imposed over the entire period it covers.

However, it does seem like most places either had infections running wild in society before the lock-downs -- like NYC, Stockholm, London and so forth -- or they didn't, which is why the curve provides so good results in general. As the curve shows, the growth upwards is fast. During a period of a week -- most of the new cases will come, or stem from so to speak since it takes up towards 5 days from infection to first symptom, and another 3+ weeks on average from infection to average death if the outcome is lethal. So the biggest impact on the curve should come from a lockdown taking down during this week +/- a few days.

Naturally we have many more cases of examples of places that have locked down than places that haven't. But, I also think this is pretty clearly shown in the numbers. The places hit early like NYC and London have very high numbers despite a total lockdown. The spread simply took place before the lockdown came, and the lockdown has probably in NYC only had a marginal impact on how fast the decline was, same as in London. Same in Northern Italy and Spain. OTOH, you have places that locked down or made adjustment before this week plus minus a few days came -- and their numbers are totally different and much much lower.
 
JimmyG89

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eco's bones said:
Two weeks after Wisconsin's Supreme Court squashed Gov. Evers stay at home order the numbers in that state are going up at a good clip--500 or so a day. It doesn't surprise me the way that people were crowding into bars.
Click to expand...

More testing = more positive cases overall. The amount of tests they are administering has gone up quite a bit in the last two week.

Rate is roughly the same, around 3-4% of the people tested are coming up positive.
 
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eco's bones

eco's bones

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JimmyG89 said:
More testing = more positive cases overall. The amount of tests they are administering has gone up quite a bit in the last two week.

Rate is roughly the same, around 3-4% of the people tested are coming up positive.
Click to expand...

That's true too but also obviously the cases are out there to find. There was a political calculation by Wisconsin republicans on the stay behind order that they were able to quash and another political calculation by Wisconsin democrats that used that quashed order to be more aggressive in finding more cases. Ultimately though if the cases are out there it's best to find them to contain the spread.

For the individual the smartest thing IMO is to understand we still don't know so muh and that when necessary you need to use your mask and you should always be keeping your distance from people who have it or you can't be sure of. I'd be leery of bars, gyms and barbershops. You can drink much cheaper out of a grocery store anyway. My wife can my hair again soon--that saves $12 and a 10 mile trip each way. Gyms are probably the last of the last of places I would go now.
 
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JimmyG89

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We're going to get a really good test here over the next couple of weeks. Interaction by younger people in through the roof with the protests taking place all throughout Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan.

All these people out there better stay far away from older people.
 
Machinehead

Machinehead

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https://elemental.medium.com/corona...isease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

This would connect every dot and explain every weird thing that happened:

-Unexplained clotting in COVID patients
-COVID deaths due to heart attack and stroke
-Kidney disease and diabetes being common co-morbidities while asthma is not
-Kawasaki syndrome in children
-COVID toe (caused by poor circulation)
-Blood deficiencies are more common in African-Americans
-Ditto, to a lesser extent, for Italians
-Red-eye in COVID patients (signals inflamed blood vessels)
 
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Machinehead

Machinehead

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It would also explain the recent CDC revision that human-to-human contact is more prevalent than surface spread.

Vasculotropic viruses tend to behave this way. You can't get HIV on a surface. You generally can't get hepatitus from a surface.
 
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NYSPORTS

NYSPORTS

back afta dis. . .
Jun 17, 2019
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Machinehead said:
https://elemental.medium.com/corona...isease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

This would connect every dot and explain every weird thing that happened:

-Unexplained clotting in COVID patients
-COVID deaths due to heart attack and stroke
-Kidney disease and diabetes being common co-morbidities while asthma is not
-Kawasaki syndrome in children
-COVID toe (caused by poor circulation)
-Blood deficiencies are more common in African-Americans
-Ditto, to a lesser extent, for Italians
-Red-eye in COVID patients (signals inflamed blood vessels)
Click to expand...

that’s a good find
 
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Ola

Ola

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Machinehead said:
It would also explain the recent CDC revision that human-to-human contact is more prevalent than surface spread.

Vasculotropic viruses tend to behave this way. You can't get HIV on a surface. You generally can't get hepatitus from a surface.
Click to expand...

A comprehensive study on how much of a risk factor smoking is for Covid patients in France made the pretty remarkable finding that smoking is a — VERY protective (5x less likely to become seriously ill) — factor against Covid.

French researchers to test nicotine patches on coronavirus patients

It is believed that nicotine may prevent the virus from getting into the blood vessels. But another theory raised by Swedish experts is that nicotine expanding blood vessels prevents some of the risks you mention and in France they have already launched testing with nicotine patches in ICUs. Technically nicotine of course makes the vessels contract at first, but long term use make them more sloppy in lack of a better word.

It’s hard to make these studies on smokers since so many have underlying bad health that must be considered. French officials actually turned to the Swedish government with a plea for it to research the effects of Swedish snuff on Covid patients (very common among men (me included) in Sweden to use this tobacco based product).
 
SnowblindNYR

SnowblindNYR

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Ola said:
A comprehensive study on how much of a risk factor smoking is for Covid patients in France made the pretty remarkable finding that smoking is a — VERY protective (5x less likely to become seriously ill) — factor against Covid.

French researchers to test nicotine patches on coronavirus patients

It is believed that nicotine may prevent the virus from getting into the blood vessels. But another theory raised by Swedish experts is that nicotine expanding blood vessels prevents some of the risks you mention and in France they have already launched testing with nicotine patches in ICUs. Technically nicotine of course makes the vessels contract at first, but long term use make them more sloppy in lack of a better word.

It’s hard to make these studies on smokers since so many have underlying bad health that must be considered. French officials actually turned to the Swedish government with a plea for it to research the effects of Swedish snuff on Covid patients (very common among men (me included) in Sweden to use this tobacco based product).
Click to expand...

I heard this a few weeks ago and breathed a sigh of relief because my parents are smokers and I was really concerned.
 
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Barnaby

Barnaby

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Jul 2, 2003
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zephyr said:
The lockdowns were necessary. Don't insurance policies have something to cover "acts of God"?
Click to expand...

When does the dam break? Do people think money falls from the sky?

If I hear one more friend collecting $800 a week say they’ll “sacrifice” staying in a few more months I’m going to snap. “If you really care you’ll stay home.” I’m working 60 hour weeks and it is what it is, yet somehow they play victims! You want all of us to go back? - then you want people to die. Enough already.

Sorry - just need to vent someplace.
 
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NYSPORTS

NYSPORTS

back afta dis. . .
Jun 17, 2019
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JimmyG89 said:
We're going to get a really good test here over the next couple of weeks. Interaction by younger people in through the roof with the protests taking place all throughout Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan.

All these people out there better stay far away from older people.
Click to expand...

we’re going to see a spike or a real confidence booster that all is safe.

Autumn/winter is going to be interesting (smh). Let’s hope it’s boring and we’re back to normal.
 
Ola

Ola

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@Machinehead

From CNBC:
“The Swedish economy expanded at a far superior rate than many of its European counterparts over the first three months of the year, data published Friday showed, following the government’s decision not to impose a full lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
The Nordic country’s statistics office reported gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic health, grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the first quarter.

Sweden’s GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, when seasonally adjusted and compared to the final three months of 2019. The median forecasters in a Reuters poll of economists had expected to see a 0.6% contraction on a quarterly basis.

France has already officially entered a recession, seeing a 5.8 percent GDP drop in the first quarter after shrinking 0.1 percent in the final quarter of 2019.

The US saw a contraction of 5 percent in the first quarter. Italy’s economy tumbled4.7 percent. Spain’s economy collapsed by 5.2 percent. “

Sweden's economy actually grew in the first quarter after it opted against a full virus lockdown

Sweden Sees Economic Growth in 1st Quarter Despite Global Pandemic | Jon Miltimore
 
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Chaels Arms

Chaels Arms

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Aug 26, 2010
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Don't know if this is strictly COVID related but thought it might be useful for everyone to know - 11 PM curfew in effect tonight in NYC per the governor.
 
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