OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

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MrazeksVengeance

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My granddad still fought in the world war. My grandma was like ten, though, so she not so much.

I did not allude to the past, I alluded to the present. I am very much aware of the Winter War (Talvisota) and the Continuation War. At one point in my childhood, me and my friend played Finnish soldiers vs imaginary Soviets in a small snow trench we made.

What I meant is that you speak about the current epidemiologic situation in Finland which is... well a lot better than in the US.

Denver is an interesting place that way. Whenever we riot or protest it’s all in the area around the capitol appropriately named “Capital Hill” which is probably the closest we have to a melting pot. When I worked downtown you could get caught in the vortex and spend your whole shift around that area. Drive 5-10 minutes south where I live it’s a different world of cute green neighborhoods. Two blocks away from my place is mildly commercial street with nice restaurants that closes on Sunday for a Farmer’s market that they’re having with limited amounts of people even today. It’s idyllic and straight out of Pleasantville.

At night I’m following the news and walking out into my backyard and I can hear booms and popping noises echoing off in the distance. If I lived 5-10 minutes east or west of Capital Hill instead of south I’d probably be hiding under the couch.

When I moved back to Denver last year I chose this neighborhood completely on purpose for now, my time for wanting to be a part of all that has passed. If I was working there still I’d have been right in the middle of it wearing a vest all night.

There is time to fight and time to build.
 
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hblueridgegal

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So are we still socially distancing?
Last night, I had to take my Daddy to the ER for a suspected bad diverticulitis flare. No one was allowed to go back with him or remain in the lobby. While I get it, it was so hard to do. We had to sit in the parking lot with Port- a- Potties for hours. The upside is that he did get a Covid test as part of his assessment.

In my 100s of visits to Duke I was never once not allowed to be with my husband even when they administered CPR. It’s weird now to think of all of the PPE I went through in a day or a week.
 

Lempo

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What I meant is that you speak about the current epidemiologic situation in Finland which is... well a lot better than in the US.

I got that, I just wanted to own up what obviously was to be owned up.

Because the very least, @cptjeff has given some food for thought. I could argue against, but he's not necessarily wrong. The initial idea of flattening the curve seem to not have been a winning choice, when even Sweden don't seem to be getting anywhere with the herd immunity.

I can be happy at least that the freezer caravans parked at some Helsinki hospitals don't seem to have seen any use.
 

Negan4Coach

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I did not allude to the past, I alluded to the present. I am very much aware of the Winter War (Talvisota) and the Continuation War. At one point in my childhood, me and my friend played Finnish soldiers vs imaginary Soviets in a small snow trench we made.

What I meant is that you speak about the current epidemiologic situation in Finland which is... well a lot better than in the US.



There is time to fight and time to build.

I play a PC game called Steel Division II, which is IMO a pretty dsmn accurate simulation of tactical level warfare.

The latest mod contains the campaign that the Soviet Leningrad Front launched against Finland in 1944. Pretty cool stuff.
 
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MrazeksVengeance

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I play a PC game called Steel Division II, which is IMO a pretty dsmn accurate simulation of tactical level warfare.

The latest mod contains the campaign that the Soviet Leningrad Front launched against Finland in 1944. Pretty cool stuff.

Yeah I like when the less known conflicts/fronts get some spotlight.

One of least known ones are the one that happened in the immediate aftermath of the World War I
 
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Nikishin Go Boom

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Got our first reported Covid-19 positive after attending a protest- a Ohio State LB.

I wonder how crazy this will get
 
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Lempo

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Good guy svech


zager20and20evans1.jpg
 

MinJaBen

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FYI:

Hi Everyone,

On balance, trends we’ve seen before are continuing.

US Cases

· The number of new cases outside of NY continues to decline slowly (Fig. 10), with the decline being statistically significant after day 50 (19 April, P < 0.0066).
· The number of tests outside of NY continues to increase approximately linearly (Fig 2).
· Correcting new cases per day for number of tests performed, we saw last time that while this index of number of actual cases has declined from a peak around day 40 (9 April), that decline had plateaued around day 71 (10 May). This plateauing appears to be continuing: after day 71 there is no statistically significant decline (P = 0.2053). This suggests that the actual number of new cases per day has stopped decreasing, which could be an effect of relaxing social-distancing practices.
· The US data for cumulative number of cases per test still fits a modified logistic growth curve well (Fig. 4).
· Projections from the fitted curve indicate that most infections from the first wave of the virus will have occurred around day 100. Specifically, for the US outside of NY, on days 96, 124, and 163 (4 June, 2 July, and 10 Aug, respectively—these dates are about 3 days later than projected last time), 95%, 99%, and 99.9% of the total infections during the first wave of the virus will have occurred. On these dates, the minimum number of infections yet to come are 95,041, 22,030, and 2,475. On days 124 and 163, the expected minimum number of new cases will be 1,294 and147.

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Fig 1
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Fig 2
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Fig 3 Trend after day 71 not significant P = 0.2053
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Fig 4 Fig 5
US Deaths

· The number of new deaths in the US outside of NY continues its downward trend (Fig. 5). This trend is significant after day 45 (14 April, P < 0.0001). A linear projection of this trend indicates that there will be 0 new deaths by day 142 (20 July). As always, there is a large error associated with this projection, with a zero death day of 232 (18 September) being with the margin of error. This remains a very good trend.

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Fig 5 Significant downward trend after day 45 P < 0.0001 0 death day = 142 max 232
NC Cases

· The number of new reported cases in NC continues to rise in an essentially linear fashion (Fig. 6).
· Last time we saw that the number of new cases per test, an index of actual infections, had risen over the most recent 10 days or so. With the new data, this rise seems to have plateaued (Fig. 7; there is no trend after day 80 (P = 0.5228)), meaning that the number of actual new cases has likely leveled off. This is in part good news, but it also means the number of new cases is not declining, not good news.
· As has been the case for a while, the number of new cases per test deviates systematically from a modified logistic growth curve (Fig. 8). The trend over the three weeks has been more linear than the fitted curve, probably due to the plateauing of new cases per test, which has been happening for a similar amount of time. Because of this deviation, I am not making any projections.
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Fig 6
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Fig 7
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Fig 8
NC Deaths

· Last time we saw that what had appeared to be a trend toward decreasing numbers of new deaths had been erased by spikes in new cases. That erasure continues in the present data (Fig. 9): There is no significant trend after day 45 (P = 0l.8966), indicating that the number of deaths has plateaued. This is consistent with the plateauing of number of new cases per test, and indicates that spread of the virus is not being controlled well in NC.
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Fig 9
Conclusions

The trends we’ve been seeing recently are continuing. While the number of new reported cases in the US continues to decline slowly, the number of new cases per test actually seems to have stopped declining about three weeks ago. This likely indicates that spread of the virus isn’t being controlled as well as previously. The number of new deaths in the US continues to decline, with projections indicating that if the trend continues, we should see essentially 0 new deaths by mid July. This assumes, of course, that infections won’t pick up again and will actually begin declining.

In NC the news is still somber. The decline in new cases per test has clearly come to a halt, which again means the spread isn’t being checked as much as it was three and more weeks ago. In addition, death rates continue to occur at a more-or less constant rate, which is consistent with the rate of infections. These patterns suggest that we may need to return to more stringent social-distancing measures locally to get declines in new infections and in death rates as are seen in the exemplary patterns from NY.

Stay safe!
 

hblueridgegal

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I am on a national alliance project for work and one of our fellow members, whose company leads Covid lab testing, shared last Thursday that they were already seeing a big increase in positive tests in cities holding protests. Hinting that a summer reprieve might be lost and urging members to be ready for a second wave sooner than expected.

Couple that with typical summer behavior and travel, it feels like we are gonna be in a world of hurt for a while until medicine can rescue us.
 
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Sens1Canes2

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May 13, 2007
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I am on a national alliance project for work and one of our fellow members, whose company leads Covid lab testing, shared last Thursday that they were already seeing a big increase in positive tests in cities holding protests. Hinting that a summer reprieve might be lost and urging members to be ready for a second wave sooner than expected.

Couple that with typical summer behavior and travel, it feels like we are gonna be in a world of hurt for a while until medicine can rescue us.
I’d be curious to know of everyone’s opinions regarding subsequent lockdowns/phase reductions (ie. Moving from 3 back to 2, 2 back to 1, etc). Initially we were told the lockdowns were to prevent the hospitals from being overrun. That obviously did not happen, and the lockdowns worked. Do we think we need more lockdowns if all we are seeing are plateauing cases and not vast increases? We now know what kind of numbers WOULD overrun hospitals...and it would seem like those numbers would have to be orders of magnitude higher than the worst days we had a few months back.
I mean, they can go ahead and just say “ok, we know we said it was to prevent hospital overrun, but we are changing our tune” and I’d at least respect their honesty.
I’m really curious to see what happens going forward.
 

MinJaBen

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I’d be curious to know of everyone’s opinions regarding subsequent lockdowns/phase reductions (ie. Moving from 3 back to 2, 2 back to 1, etc). Initially we were told the lockdowns were to prevent the hospitals from being overrun. That obviously did not happen, and the lockdowns worked. Do we think we need more lockdowns if all we are seeing are plateauing cases and not vast increases? We now know what kind of numbers WOULD overrun hospitals...and it would seem like those numbers would have to be orders of magnitude higher than the worst days we had a few months back.
I mean, they can go ahead and just say “ok, we know we said it was to prevent hospital overrun, but we are changing our tune” and I’d at least respect their honesty.
I’m really curious to see what happens going forward.

We might not have overrun the hospitals previously in NC, but they can't keep operating at the capacity they are at right now. There are hospitals in the area where the ICU staff are burned out and they are now pulling from the general hospitalist staff to cover the staffing shortages. And this is in a state that is still seeing new cases grow in a linear fashion. The only state I know of that is starting to look good is NY, and that is likely because they had such an overrun that they likely saw a large portion of their vulnerable population die already.

With all of that said, FYI:

Hi Everyone,

Trends in the US as a whole are looking good, but not so much in NC.

US Cases

· The number of reported new cases per day in the US outside of NY (and in NY) continues to fall (Fig. 1). Although the decline is small, it is statistically significant (P = 0.0077 after day 50).
· The good trend of increase in the number of new tests per day in the US is also continuing (Fig. 2), with the increase being linear, except for the large spike three days ago. Not sure what that spike is about.
· The number of new cases per test is also trending downward again (Fig. 3). In my last two reports this trend had been flat since day 71 (10 May), but now there is a significant downward trend since that date (P = 0.0100), which is good news since it suggests that the actual number of new cases per day is truly declining.
· The cumulative number of new cases per test is still fitting a modified logistic growth curve well (Fig. 4).
· Projections from the fitted curve indicate that most of the infections from the first wave will occur by around day 100 (Fig. 5). Specifically, for the US outside of NY, on days 97, 126, and 165 (5 June, 4 July, and 12 Aug, respectively—these dates are 1-2 days later than projected last time), 95%, 99%, and 99.9% of the total infections during the first wave of the virus will have occurred. On these dates, the minimum number of infections yet to come are 81,918, 16,639, and 1,680. On days 126 and 165, the expected minimum number of new cases will be 951 and 97.
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Fig 1
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Fig 2
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Fig 3
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Fig 4
Fig 5
US Deaths

· The daily number of deaths in the US outside of NY (and in NY) continues its downward trend. (Fig. 6). This trend is highly significant for the US (P < 0.0001) after day 45 (14 April). Although there may seem to be a hint of non-linearity in this trend, especially when looking at the moving average, this trend is not statistically different from linear. Projecting the linear trend gives an estimate of day 141 (19 July) for the day on which 0 deaths will occur, which is unchanged from last time. Of course, as I’ve said before, there is substantial error associated with this prediction. Moreover, if the trend begins to become nonlinear and flatten out, the 0-death day will be later.

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Fig 6
NC Cases

· The number of new cases reported per day continues to climb in NC, essentially linearly (Fig. 7).
· Correcting for number of tests performed, the number of new cases per test continues to remain the same (Fig. 8). Although this number had fallen steadily for 2-3 weeks, the trend reversed and subsequently plateaued, so that the number of new cases per test is statistically flat after day 80 (19 May). This suggests that the total number of cases is increasing linearly.
· This linear trend is reflected in the cumulative number of new cases per test after day 80 (Fig. 9). The modified logistic growth curve does not fit this data at all. Because there is no sign of the curve flattening, it is pointless to make any projections about when the number of new cases will decrease to near zero. This is very bad news because it means we have not yet seen the crest of the first wave of infections in NC.
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Fig 7
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Fig 8
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Fig 9
NC Deaths

· Daily death counts in NC show no signs of decreasing and the trend has been essentially flat since about day 40 (9 April) (Fig. 10). This is in keeping with the number of new cases per test, which has also been flat.

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Fig 10
Conclusions

In general, in the US trends continue to move in the right direction, with number of new cases, number of new cases per test, and daily death count all falling. In the US as a whole, we seem to have gotten past the crest of the first wave of infections and deaths. While this is very good news, one must bear in mind that these trends could reverse if social-distancing measures continue to be relaxed.

North Carolina, however, seems to be bucking the national trend. The number of new cases per day continues to increase linearly. This seems largely due to increased testing, but the number of new cases per test is flat, suggesting that the actual number of new cases per day is not falling. This means that the cumulative number of cases will continue rising at a steady rate for the foreseeable future. Daily deaths in NC also show no sign of declining, and thus are also likely to continue to increase at a constant rate. Clearly we have either not seen the crest of the first wave of infections in NC, or we are seeing a second wave close on the heels of the first. In either case, not good news.

Stay safe.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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Woah, this would be absolutely HUGE if it ends up being true...that said at one point we were told masks don't do anything, then everyone wear masks, and now even after lockdown/WFH/social distancing we're still getting COVID spread, so I'm not really sure anyone has any clue still

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

I wonder what they classify as "symptomatic". From my understanding, the symptoms include some, but not all of these: Fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, body aches, headache, loss of smell/taste, nausea, diarrhea, congestion, runny nose, sore throat, headache. If someone has 1 of those things, are they symptomatic? 2? 5? etc..

I've had an on again off again runny nose, congestion, post nasal drip, some sneezing and coughing, and a sore throat (from the post nasal drip) for months, which happens every year during allergy season.

Agree that if asymptomatic spread is rare that it's big news, just wonder "how symptomatic" someone needs to be.
 

WreckingCrew

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I wonder what they classify as "symptomatic". From my understanding, the symptoms include some, but not all of these: Fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, body aches, headache, loss of smell/taste, nausea, diarrhea, congestion, runny nose, sore throat, headache. If someone has 1 of those things, are they symptomatic? 2? 5? etc..

I've had an on again off again runny nose, congestion, post nasal drip, some sneezing and coughing, and a sore throat (from the post nasal drip) for months, which happens every year during allergy season.

Agree that if asymptomatic spread is rare that it's big news, just wonder "how symptomatic" someone needs to be.
That's my thoughts too...with the restrictions in place and how careful sick people should be about potentially spreading it, you would think if ONLY symptomatic folks could spread it we'd have it pretty well stomped out. Or it's possible allergy season has had a part, especially as bad as it's been this year. Maybe someone is asymptomatic of COVID, but bc they're suffering allergies they're still spreading it from coughing/sneezing and such?
 

WreckingCrew

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Interesting timing. this is exactly opposite of what the CNBC article says.

Cohen: Almost half of coronavirus cases spread by those with no symptoms :: WRAL.com
This is one of the biggest problems with the pandemic, journalism, and just about anything related to politics these days... there's so much conflicting information, often from the same damn data sets, that it becomes impossible to verify without implicit bias (which source you trust most). I'm still erring on the side of caution, but don't let it stop me from going out (following mask/distancing guidelines)
 
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Anton Dubinchuk

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I wonder what they classify as "symptomatic". From my understanding, the symptoms include some, but not all of these: Fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, body aches, headache, loss of smell/taste, nausea, diarrhea, congestion, runny nose, sore throat, headache. If someone has 1 of those things, are they symptomatic? 2? 5? etc..

I've had an on again off again runny nose, congestion, post nasal drip, some sneezing and coughing, and a sore throat (from the post nasal drip) for months, which happens every year during allergy season.

Agree that if asymptomatic spread is rare that it's big news, just wonder "how symptomatic" someone needs to be.

If I had a hard workout, am a little dehydrated, or maybe just ate really unhealthy yesterday, I might have 2-4 of those symptoms at any given time. 3-5 if it's allergy season as you said.
 

RodTheBawd

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I'd also love to know how accurate (and large of a sample) the asymptomatic tracing is that they're basing a lot of this on.

And as an aside, interesting how the people that are jumping all over this report are the same ones that just a couple of weeks ago were talking about how useless and inaccurate anything coming out of the WHO is/was.
 
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