OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

[MrazeksVengeance]

This whole thing is so weird because some of the smartest and most successful people I know, my brother in law and father in law, and many of their colleagues, are adamant about how this whole thing is still overblown. They're ER doctors and my wife is an ER nurse, and we're in the biggest metro in SC and they haven't really noticed a huge difference in patients (the vast majority of positive tests don't require hospitalization, think 90% at least). It's also not a political thing as they're all fairly progressive. I guess it's mainly weird because I'm the most cautious one, and all I do is sell and rent construction equipment.

That said, we're still all cautious and passionate enough about other human beings that we realize we still have a duty to take the proper precautions as long as it's necessary to do so.

Not panicking, yet being cautious and thoughtful is the best way anyway imho.

 

[bleedgreen]

So my work is over for now. Czech republic is mostly stabilized and life has moved on. I have been to a pub 4 times out of the 5 days this week. Masks are not even mandatory outside anymore (still mandatory is supermarkets and public transport for example). The actual reason why I am not working at the respiratory clinic though is... simply the fact that the hospital doesn't want to pay us. The clinic has prolonged my stay by three weeks anyway.

But it is over now. In a symbolic twist, the last day was probably one of the craziest, if not the craziest I have experienced in my short stay. My doctor (she is still quite young herself) was really stressed out because she had an afternoon shift and she was also transferring her patients to a doctor from Oncology with whom she is switching her place for some time (because of training). We planned to have a beer on this Friday, but we had to postpone it. Kind of stressful day.

I have measured blood pressure, O2 saturation, and heart rate more than 500 times. The last patient I measured was the only one I had to measure with a digital sphygmomanometer, not the old school one. Woman, just past 40 with a generalized chemotherapy-resistant carcinoma in palliative care. The saddest case we had during my stay. Can't make this stuff up.

In the end, I left with a couple of handshakes (sanitized afterward) and my keychain a bit lighter.

I feel like I finished a good TV series and there are no more episodes. During this, I grew up, I fell in love, I finished one of my five "final" exams.

But I am still Vengeance, so I am gonna f**king return as soon as I can. I got lucky I got stationed where I got stationed, but I am the one to make the most of it.

Thanks for what you do, on the vengeance front as well.

 

[cptjeff]

This kind of relates to my domestic discussion. The government response for the most part was a set of country-wide blanket policies, despite the fact that the measures like total restaurant shutdown haven't been well-founded or at-all-founded in large parts of the country. The biggest guide there was the political expediency and they not having to explain the voters why some provinces have strict restrictions and others don't (and why some politician failed to keep his/her constituency outside of the provincial restrictions). It's been one size fits all, disregard the local figures (or the lack of them).

Shutdowns before things got serious are the reason WHY cases were so low. When it's raining, you don't stop using your umbrella because you're dry and therefore don't think the rain is a problem.

If you're in an area where the restrictions were put in place before covid started spreading in earnest, be grateful. That's what was supposed to happen. When you do it right and do it early, people don't get the disease and don't die. Some of us live in areas where that wasn't the case. 100k+ have now died in the US. Remember the Winter Classic at Michigan Stadium? Imagine every one of those people dead.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Thanks for what you do, on the vengeance front as well.

I will admit it. My ego isn’t small and feeling useful is one hell of a drug.

Shutdowns before things got serious are the reason WHY cases were so low. When it's raining, you don't stop using your umbrella because you're dry and therefore don't think the rain is a problem.

If you're in an area where the restrictions were put in place before covid started spreading in earnest, be grateful. That's what was supposed to happen. When you do it right and do it early, people don't get the disease and don't die. Some of us live in areas where that wasn't the case. 100k+ have now died in the US. Remember the Winter Classic at Michigan Stadium? Imagine every one of those people dead.

This is what frustrates me. People calling precautions useless, because the casualties were averted.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

It’s the classic IT paradox.

Things are working correctly: why are we even paying these guys to sit around?

Things are not working correctly: why are we even paying these guys? WidgetApp isn’t working and they haven’t fixed it yet.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

It’s the classic IT paradox.

Things are working correctly: why are we even paying these guys to sit around?

Things are not working correctly: why are we even paying these guys? WidgetApp isn’t working and they haven’t fixed it yet.

Sad but true. If your job is reactive/protective you never get the appropriate credit.

Even in hockey - Hašek, someone who changed historical hockey games by nothing but his own will, never gets the credit of the equally dominant offensive players. Hell, not even the titans of the same era - Brodeur and Roy. And those two are safe from the anti-European bias of those times.

@sabremike

I am watching that thread...

 

[Lempo]

Yes, but.

The grievance that some have is not about there being a response to coronavirus pandemic, but that it was a one-size-fits-all response that had same restrictions applied similarly everywhere in the country regardless of how and if at all various regions were experiencing the pandemic.

When one end of it is people dying to the disease and the other end is the economic non-activity killing businesses, some inter-regional micro-managing might have been in order instead of one national blanket policy on restrictions that can well be argued to have been an overkill in a number of regions.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Yes, but.

The grievance that some have is not about there being a response to coronavirus pandemic, but that it was a one-size-fits-all response that had same restrictions applied similarly everywhere in the country regardless of how and if at all various regions were experiencing the pandemic.

When one end of it is people dying to the disease and the other end is the economic non-activity killing businesses, some inter-regional micro-managing might have been in order instead of one national blanket policy on restrictions that can well be argued to have been an overkill in a number of regions.

Never trust your government to do things right even if you elected them. Not because they are evil, but because they are human.

And as such prone to failure.

 

[cptjeff]

Yes, but.

The grievance that some have is not about there being a response to coronavirus pandemic, but that it was a one-size-fits-all response that had same restrictions applied similarly everywhere in the country regardless of how and if at all various regions were experiencing the pandemic.

When one end of it is people dying to the disease and the other end is the economic non-activity killing businesses, some inter-regional micro-managing might have been in order instead of one national blanket policy on restrictions that can well be argued to have been an overkill in a number of regions.

National blanket policies also make guidelines and communication clear and avoids confusion, and prevents people from trying to relocate from heavily impacted areas to more lightly impacted ones, potentially spreading the virus as they do so.

If there are lots of areas that had very few cases, the restrictions worked. Stop whining. Your grandparents fought in a world war. You can manage to sit at home with netflix for a few months.

 

[MinJaBen]

FYI. Trends locally are looking worse.

Hi Everyone,

We have some trends that are looking good, but some that are looking bad. In the US outside of NY, the number of new reported cases since day 50 (40 days ago) is showing a significant downward trend (P < 0.0001) (Fig. 1). Given that the number of new tests continues to increase (Fig. 2), this is a real sign that the actual number of new cases has been declining.

This conclusion must be tempered, however, by a trend in the number of new cases per test (Fig. 3). This had been declining steadily for about 30 days. However, for the past 20 days, this number has been statistically flat (P = 0.3456), suggesting that the actual number of new cases per day has stopped decreasing. Interestingly, the beginning of this period coincides with the beginning of “opening up” and lessening of social-distancing practices.

The data on cumulative new cases per test for the US outside of NY still fits a modified logistic growth curve (Fig. 4), and projections from this curve indicate a passing of most of the first wave of infections around day 95 (Fig. 5). Specifically, for the US outside of NY, on days 93, 121, and 159 (1 June, 29June, and 6 Aug, respectively—these dates are about 1 – 4 days later than projected last time), 95%, 99%, and 99.9% of the total infections during the first wave of the virus will have occurred. On these dates, the minimum number of infections yet to come are 84,166, 18,592, and 1,956. On days 112 and 146, the expected minimum number of new cases will be 1,128 and 27.

Fig 1

Fig 2

Fig 3

Fig 4 Fig 5
The good trend in death rates continues in the US outside of NY (and in NY) (Fig. 6). For the US, this trend is highly statistically significant (P < 0.0001) after day 45 (45 days ago). Extrapolation of this linear trend puts the “zero deaths” day around day 145 (23 June), about two weeks earlier than projected last time. As always, though, there is a substantial error associated with this projection—a zero death day of 266 (21 Nov ) is within the margin of error.

Fig 6
In North Carolina, the number of new reported cases per day continues to climb (Fig. 7). When this statistic is corrected for number of tests, the number of new cases per test has taken an ugly turn upward (Fig. 8). This trend began about 20 days ago, is highly significant (P = 0.0018), and coincides with “opening up” and relaxation of social distancing—a really bad trend.

Not surprisingly, given this trend, the data on cumulative new cases per test continues to deviate systematically from a modified logistic growth curve (Fig. 9)—the actually data is more linear from day 71 than the fit. Consequently, no projections will be made at this time.

Fig 7

Fig 8

Fig 9
Last time, there appeared to be a significant trend in NC for deaths decreasing. Unfortunately, that trend has disappeared with recent spikes in deaths over the past few days (Fig. 10). Death rates appear to be on a steady increase, indicating we have not yet reached the crest of the wave of deaths associated with the virus.

Fig 10
In conclusion, I’m less optimistic than I was last time. The best news is that new deaths in the US continue to decrease, although the opposite seems to be happening in NC. The bad news is that the number of new cases per test seems to have plateaued in the US outside of NY, suggesting that we may be seeing the effects of relaxing social distancing practices. The trend in NC is even worse, with the number of cases per test looking like it’s actually increasing.

One bit of related news that people may be interested in is that I received a message from CVS Pharmacy indicating that individuals can schedule a coronavirus test. As far as I can tell, this offer is open to anyone, it’s free, and results are returned in 2-4 days. So if you have been holding back on getting together with loved ones for fear of contracting or passing on the virus, this might be an opportunity for you to do that with some reassurance. There may be other places doing this as well.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

National blanket policies also make guidelines and communication clear and avoids confusion, and prevents people from trying to relocate from heavily impacted areas to more lightly impacted ones, potentially spreading the virus as they do so.

If there are lots of areas that had very few cases, the restrictions worked. Stop whining. Your grandparents fought in a world war. You can manage to sit at home with netflix for a few months.

You know Lempo is Finnish right?

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Just had breakfast in a restaurant. Can’t remember the last time I had a meal out.

This is in Edmonton, though, where things never got too bad. Most businesses are open again with safety measures in place.

 

[bleedgreen]

Restaurants started opening on a limited basis on Friday here.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Restaurants started opening on a limited basis on Friday here.

Monday the previous week here. Waited the first week, but I was out 5 days out of 7 this week.

 

[DaveG]

Monday the previous week here. Waited the first week, but I was out 5 days out of 7 this week.

Yeah there's a few that have been reopening here in town. Most are still takeout and delivery only but I'll really admit I've been so sick of my own failed cooking that I've gone out twice already this weekend and was out at Foothills last weekend.

Like how is it even possible for someone to be a world class brewer and be so completely incompetent as a cook?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Yeah there's a few that have been reopening here in town. Most are still takeout and delivery only but I'll really admit I've been so sick of my own failed cooking that I've gone out twice already this weekend and was out at Foothills last weekend.

Like how is it even possible for someone to be a world class brewer and be so completely incompetent as a cook?

Chemical (ingredient) imbalances?

 

[Unsustainable]

So are we still socially distancing?

 

[DaveG]

Chemical (ingredient) imbalances?

I'll accept this explanation. Either interpretation of it.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Like how is it even possible for someone to be a world class brewer and be so completely incompetent as a cook?

You know. Moses... He brew everything, but couldn’t cook.

...

In this sense I was lucky I could use the cantine most of the days during the hard quarantine thanks to being updated to an employee.

 

[raynman]

So are we still socially distancing?

Certainly doesn’t seem like it around here. I’ve walked up to more than one gas station in the last week and turned around because they were so crowded with people on top of each other. Out of sight out of mind seems to the attitude

 

[bleedgreen]

In the mile long line at target right now, everyone is mildly keeping their distance but no longer paying any attention to the six ft markers on the ground.

Side note...I’m less than ten minutes away from where Denver’s riots/fires/angry protesters/gunfire happened to the point of a needed a police enforced curfew but its normal life here. Families shopping. Interesting times we live in.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I'll accept this explanation. Either interpretation of it.

I can grill, preferably smoke, meat like a champ but my cooking aint near as good. Its disappointing.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

In the mile long line at target right now, everyone is mildly keeping their distance but no longer paying any attention to the six ft markers on the ground.

Side note...I’m less than ten minutes away from where Denver’s riots/fires/angry protesters/gunfire happened to the point of a needed a police enforced curfew but its normal life here. Families shopping. Interesting times we live in.

We got a saying - man can get used to being hanged.

Something like that boiling frog that didn’t leap.

 

[Lempo]

You know Lempo is Finnish right?

My granddad still fought in the world war. My grandma was like ten, though, so she not so much.

 

[bleedgreen]

We got a saying - man can get used to being hanged.

Something like that boiling frog that didn’t leap.

Denver is an interesting place that way. Whenever we riot or protest it’s all in the area around the capitol appropriately named “Capital Hill” which is probably the closest we have to a melting pot. When I worked downtown you could get caught in the vortex and spend your whole shift around that area. Drive 5-10 minutes south where I live it’s a different world of cute green neighborhoods. Two blocks away from my place is mildly commercial street with nice restaurants that closes on Sunday for a Farmer’s market that they’re having with limited amounts of people even today. It’s idyllic and straight out of Pleasantville.

At night I’m following the news and walking out into my backyard and I can hear booms and popping noises echoing off in the distance. If I lived 5-10 minutes east or west of Capital Hill instead of south I’d probably be hiding under the couch.

When I moved back to Denver last year I chose this neighborhood completely on purpose for now, my time for wanting to be a part of all that has passed. If I was working there still I’d have been right in the middle of it wearing a vest all night.