OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

Discussion in 'Carolina Hurricanes' started by DaveG, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    No "free market capitalist" today has ever lived in a United States functioning under free market capitalism. They've never experienced it. But they are sure it is good. Trust them.
     
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  2. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    ...aaaaaand now you have cholera.
     
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  3. Surrounded By Ahos white men do long the banana throwing

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    I’m not getting the vaccine because they’re going to use it to implant a microchip into me so they can track my movements.


    posted from my iPhone
     
  4. Tryamw Fan of Jerks Sponsor

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    Whilst carrying a cell phone... (Which actively transmits your location... when asked...)
     
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  5. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    thatsthejoke.gif
     
  6. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    Perspective/Food-for-thought:
    There are approx 3,000,000 deaths per year in the USA...so COVID would currently be around 3.3% of that figure (death rate compared to population is generally between +/- 1% on an "average" year). With record unemployment, there's likely to also be an increase in some causes (such as suicides, overdoses, etc), but also a decrease in other areas (work-related accidents, car accidents, etc). It'll be interesting at the end of the year to see if this causes one of those rare "spikes" or if other areas balance out.

    COVID currently falls between Diabetes and Alzheimer's among leading causes of death
     
  7. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    ...despite the fact that the entire country is in some version of lockdown to prevent it.

    Fixed that bullshit "perspective" for you.
     
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  8. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    Interesting, I see no perspective thrown in there...I was just mulling over the raw numbers and data out of curiosity and comparing to other things. You could say the same about flu deaths "despite the fact that there's a vaccine for it", otherwise perhaps it would claim 500,000 US lives every year? I even noted it would be a 3.3% change compared to normal, which fluctuates +/-1%, so triple that would not be insignificant. Obviously the lockdown has improved the numbers, it would be a lot worse without the lockdowns, social-distancing, masks, etc...all of which I've been a part of and haven't been fighting against. It's why comparing Sweden to their neighbors is interesting because it's a slightly more direct comparison of what happens if you do or don't shutdown. You can't say how much worse it would or wouldn't be here if we didn't lockdown because you literally can't have that info unless it happens. I'm not sure what you were personally reading into my post...but fixed that bullshit projection for you!
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
  9. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    Ok, then, let's leave aside your unsourced assertion, which itself is likely wrong and fueled by shitty cherry-picked data. Let's look at real data and real methods.

    Here's a graph that takes death data from 2017 and projects COVID daily death data on top of it. Method is to take total deaths in 2017 and divide to get a daily projection/estimation, per day, by cause, in 2020 -- and then superimpose daily COVID deaths as measured by the Johns Hopkins count. We use the 2017 data as an approximation, so it is imperfect -- but it's actual CDC data, which, you know, used to f***ing mean something in this country.

    How coronavirus compares to leading causes of death in the United States

    The graph starts on March 22nd, the last day on which there were zero confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US.

    On March 30th, just over a week later, COVID-19 surpassed "accidents" as the third leading cause of death, per day, in the US -- and has never, not for a single day, been less than third since, behind only heart disease and cancer -- and has been the leading cause of death for at least 5 of those days.

    And of course only one of those three causes of death is actually communicable -- but who gives a f*** about that, right?

    I'm tired of bullshit spin, when numbers are right there to f***ing look at. I'm tired of false equivalencies. I'm tired of the general dumbness.

    You want to make the case that we should open up? Fine. That's a balancing act, and a hard one, and a different discussion.

    But the data is what the data f***ing is. And every time some idiot makes the case that "it's not that deadly really" and uses bullshit unsourced pseudo-data to back it up, it really, really, really pisses me off.

    The data I see shows that COVID-19 is at least the third leading cause of death in America, and has been, every single day since it started killing people, despite our basically shutting down the country to try to stop it. It's. Not. The. f***ing. Flu.

    If you've got the data to prove the above analysis wrong, then, and only then, will I even listen to that kind of discussion.

    And for the record: one of my best friends' mothers, a woman I considered a surrogate mother to me, died of COVID-19 a few weeks ago, a fact that I found out yesterday. This isn't some f***ing abstraction.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
  10. Jerkob Slavin Likable Jerk

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    Sorry for your loss. :(

    I agree with you 100%. I am a science teacher watching the death of science. Ignorance is proliferating in America. Ignorance driven by selfishness and greed. It's sad.
     
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  11. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    I’m very sorry for your friend’s and your loss.
     
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  12. Anton Dubinchuk aho Sponsor

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    I think all he meant (using the same 2017 data set you were) was that right now COVID would fall between those two on a yearly basis. Based on the projections I've seen, it's likely to "pass" Alzheimer's before this first wave is over.

    There is likely merit to viewing it in both ways. The graphic you linked is very interesting and useful. However, since this is theoretically (hopefully) a "spiking" disease and not a long lasting one (again, I stress, hopefully), viewing the numbers the way he's doing has some merit as well. The way it makes sense to me (let me know if you disagree) is that the longer term this goes on, the more the way of presenting the data in the way that you linked can show the "whole" picture. The shorter term, the more important yearly context is.

    As it stands, this is a very "medium term" event, and so both views help to describe the overall picture.

    I am sorry for your loss, Hank :(



    FastStats

    Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

    • Heart disease: 647,457
    • Cancer: 599,108
    • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    • Diabetes: 83,564
    • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
    • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
    • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
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  13. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    @Navin R Slavin I'm very sorry for your loss and apologize my post came across as trying to downplay the numbers/seriousness. I was simply looking at the raw total numbers and mulling them over to get an idea of where COVID was falling in comparison (and it looks like it could potentially pass Alzheimer's, especially if there is a second wave). Data I was referencing:

    FastStats

    COVID-19 Estimation Updates

    Products - Data Briefs - Number 355 - January 2020

    And I've seen that graphic before and the only thing I dislike is it's comparing full-year totals from several years ago averaged out vs daily counts this year...though daily counts of the other data are probably not as readily available for direct comparison. It doesn't really account for anything that's cyclical/seasonal (flu), and we don't know the future of COVID, that's why I was interested in looking at the totals
     
  14. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    Hopefully it's a spiking disease? Okay.

    There were 1400 deaths yesterday, Wednesday 5/27, just when everyone in the country is starting to open back up.

    It makes no sense even to pretend that this is a spiking disease until we see any actual evidence of that.
     
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  15. Anton Dubinchuk aho Sponsor

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    I mean, Hank, the deaths per day are trending down and most models suggest they will peter out by September. I even put hopefully in italics (for emphasis), I realize it declining as projected is far from certain and there are tons of unknown variables but given the most popular models and data it's silly to pretend I'm out to lunch here... Are you suggesting that we should all be assuming this is a permanent fixture as third place behind heart disease and cancer on that list in perpetuity?

    Maybe "spiking" was the wrong word choice to convey my point and I'm just miscommunicating, would "impermanent" be better?
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
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  16. Navin R Slavin The Artist Formerly Known as Hank Sponsor

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    I don't give a shit. Call it temporary, call it trending down, call it whatever the f*** you want.

    It'll all end someday. For plenty of folks, it already has.
     
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  17. MinJaBen Canes Sharks Boy Sponsor

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    It could be that it is spiking, just like the flu spikes every year. And next year, it'll again spike just like the flu. And so on, and so on.
     
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  18. Anton Dubinchuk aho Sponsor

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    It very, very well could be, let’s hope not!
     
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  19. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    Hopefully by this time next year we'll have a vaccine to help prevent that or treatment to reduce the severity
     
  20. Unsustainable Bunch of Jerks

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  21. MrazeksVengeance VENGEANCE

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    So my work is over for now. Czech republic is mostly stabilized and life has moved on. I have been to a pub 4 times out of the 5 days this week. Masks are not even mandatory outside anymore (still mandatory is supermarkets and public transport for example). The actual reason why I am not working at the respiratory clinic though is... simply the fact that the hospital doesn't want to pay us. The clinic has prolonged my stay by three weeks anyway.

    But it is over now. In a symbolic twist, the last day was probably one of the craziest, if not the craziest I have experienced in my short stay. My doctor (she is still quite young herself) was really stressed out because she had an afternoon shift and she was also transferring her patients to a doctor from Oncology with whom she is switching her place for some time (because of training). We planned to have a beer on this Friday, but we had to postpone it. Kind of stressful day.

    I have measured blood pressure, O2 saturation, and heart rate more than 500 times. The last patient I measured was the only one I had to measure with a digital sphygmomanometer, not the old school one. Woman, just past 40 with a generalized chemotherapy-resistant carcinoma in palliative care. The saddest case we had during my stay. Can't make this stuff up.

    In the end, I left with a couple of handshakes (sanitized afterward) and my keychain a bit lighter.

    I feel like I finished a good TV series and there are no more episodes. During this, I grew up, I fell in love, I finished one of my five "final" exams.

    But I am still Vengeance, so I am gonna f**king return as soon as I can. I got lucky I got stationed where I got stationed, but I am the one to make the most of it.
     
  22. Negan4Coach MILK AND HONEY

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    So, you guys know 2 things about me:

    1) I'm as right wing as they come

    2) Navin and I never agree on anything

    In this case he is right. The fact that this entire situation has been politicized to the degree that it has with right wingers decrying mask wearing as tyranny (Although quite frankly I think "tyranny" is better defined by a cop who puts his knee on your neck for 10 min while you beg for your life) and the left being all like "AAAAA we need to stay locked down for a year and completely destroy the economy" is- you guessed it- disgusting.

    This is a serious situation and needs to be treated as such. I don't like all the conflicting guidance (ie, "masks don't help" followed by "everybody wear a mask now" a month later), but regardless of their efficacy, wearing a mask cost you nothing. I have my N95 masks I bought before they were unavailable because when the Chinese People's Liberation Army is literally welding people in their houses, its something we call in my line of work an "indicator", but at this point, wear the goddamned mask and do your best to avoid crowds.

    I agree with opening up, because any further damage to our economy may lead to a total breakdown of civilization and the casualties sustained from that will eclipse the virus. But FFS, people don't need to be congregating in throngs and hanging all over each other like this is over. This is just beginning. I'm still alive after 4 combat tours because I am a very cautious dude. Being cautious costs you nothing as well. This is not the goddamned flu.
     
  23. Canes Do It 4 the Nurses

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    This whole thing is so weird because some of the smartest and most successful people I know, my brother in law and father in law, and many of their colleagues, are adamant about how this whole thing is still overblown. They're ER doctors and my wife is an ER nurse, and we're in the biggest metro in SC and they haven't really noticed a huge difference in patients (the vast majority of positive tests don't require hospitalization, think 90% at least). It's also not a political thing as they're all fairly progressive. I guess it's mainly weird because I'm the most cautious one, and all I do is sell and rent construction equipment.

    That said, we're still all cautious and passionate enough about other human beings that we realize we still have a duty to take the proper precautions as long as it's necessary to do so.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2020
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  24. Negan4Coach MILK AND HONEY

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    I know the same type of folks- our new friend in Raleigh is a doctor in an ER at Wake and him and his wife are progressives. He is pretty sanguine about the whole thing- the last time I saw him he said there are only 5 Corona patients in their ICU.

    The key is to find the middle ground between the people who are blowing it off and the ones who are panicking. It is a hard blade to run on, because everyone hates you.
     
  25. Lempo We are on a pause! Sponsor

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    This kind of relates to my domestic discussion. The government response for the most part was a set of country-wide blanket policies, despite the fact that the measures like total restaurant shutdown haven't been well-founded or at-all-founded in large parts of the country. The biggest guide there was the political expediency and they not having to explain the voters why some provinces have strict restrictions and others don't (and why some politician failed to keep his/her constituency outside of the provincial restrictions). It's been one size fits all, disregard the local figures (or the lack of them).
     

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