OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

[Cardiac Jerks]

man, it's very not good in the city. I really hope I'm wrong about what I think is coming.

Unfortunately, I don’t think you’re going to be wrong

I can’t read anymore comments on the virus. The level of ignorance from people saying it’s a hoax and that we’re all sheep for listening to the government seems to grow by the day. It’s really quite sad.

 

[hblueridgegal]

 

[the halleJOKEL]

our species is doomed

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242971861.html

 

[Navin R Slavin]

our species is doomed

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242971861.html

Not the entire species, just particular segments of it.

 

[MinJaBen]

Nice little experiment the Nordic/Scandinavian countries are running for us....

 

[MinJaBen]

FYI:

Hi Everyone,

Mixed messages today. NY continues to do great, but the rest of the US and NC are showing some possible danger signs.

US Cases

While the number of new cases continues to decline in NY, the number in the rest of the US continues to stay flat (Fig. 1). One piece of good news is that the number of tests per day keeps increasing, slightly in NY, and substantially in the rest of the US (Fig. 2). When new cases are corrected for number of tests, the number of new cases per test continues to decline in NY and the rest of the US (Fig. 3), but there are signs this decline may be slowing, or even plateauing, in the rest of the US. If so, this would suggest that the real number of new cases may also be plateauing, which wouldn’t be a good sign, and could reflect the beginning of an increase in cases associated with relaxing social-distancing measures. We’ll need to keep an eye on that.
A modified logistic growth curve still fits both the NY and rest of the US data quite well (Fig. 4). Projections from this fit indicate a leveling off of cumulative new cases per test around day 100. Specifically, for the rest of the US, on days 90, 116, and 149 (May 29, June 24, and July 27, respectively—these dates are about 3 days later than projected last time), 95%, 99%, and 99.9% of the total infections during the first wave of the virus will have occurred. On these dates, the minimum number of infections yet to come are 195,471, 53,609, and 9,799. On days 112 and 146, the expected minimum number of new cases will be 2,801 and 521.

Fig. 1.

Fig 2

Fig 3

Fig 4 Fig 5
US Deaths

New deaths per day in both NY and the rest of the US continue to decline (Fig. 6). For the rest of the US, this trend is significant (P= 0.0035 after day 45). At this point, the decline seems linear, and a linear projection suggests that new deaths per day will reach 0 around day 128 (6 July, about 1.5 months from now)—if the trend continues, of course. As I indicated last time, though, there is a lot of error associated with this estimate: it could be as late as day 245 (2 November). If it does continue, that would reflect essentially the end of the adverse effects of the first wave of infections.

Fig 6
NC Cases
You may have heard that the recorded number of cases yesterday and two days before that were the largest for NC since the beginning of the epidemic. This suggests the number of cases may actually be acceleration, which the 5-day moving average suggests (Fig. 7). Correcting number of cases for number of tests (Fig. 8), the number of new cases per test, which had been declining, is actually showing signs of beginning to increase again. This is especially evident in the 5-day moving averages. This would be a very bad sign, indicating that relaxing social distancing practices in NC may be leading to a new wave of infections. Admittedly, this trend is based on only the last three days of data, so we’ll have to wait and see if this trend continues. However, at the very least, it suggests that the decline in new cases per test (which I believe is proportional to the total number of recorded and unrecorded new cases) has plateaued, which is also not a good sign.

The fit of the data to a modified logistic growth curve is not very good (Fig. 9), probably because of the plateauing/increase in number of new cases per test. There are clear systematic deviations of the data from the fitted line. For this reason, at this time I am not using this fit to project cases into the future.

Fig. 7

Fig 8

Fig 9
Conclusions

Unlike last time, when the data gave me reason to be fairly optimistic, I am less sanguine with the new data. While NY is continuing to do really well, in terms of both number of new cases and new cases per test, we are seeing what appears to be a levelling off of the curves. This could reflect an increase in actual new cases per day, which could portend the beginning of a second wave of infections associated with “opening up”. We’ll need more data to see if this is a real trend, but we probably should know within a week or so.

In NC, things are even more gloomy, with the number of new cases per test looking like it may actually be increasing. This could also indicate a second wave, but again, we’ll know better in a week or so.

The main bright spot is that the number of new deaths in the US is declining. This is a real trend to root for.

Stay safe!

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I mean, at this point, we're screwed, right?

The whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, ease off the hospitals, and give the government time to make a plan to get some control of the outbreak. But that plan never came. There was no widespread testing, no concentrated effort to get in front of it. So the lockdown was largely ineffective.

And now we're opening states back up and we'll no doubt see another huge increase in cases (because how can you not when no one is social distancing anymore), but there's zero chance we'll have another lockdown. The government won't support it and the people won't abide by it.

So I guess the plan is to hope we stay alive long enough for some one to come up with a vaccine?

 

[MinJaBen]

I mean, at this point, we're screwed, right?

The whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, ease off the hospitals, and give the government time to make a plan to get some control of the outbreak. But that plan never came. There was no widespread testing, no concentrated effort to get in front of it. So the lockdown was largely ineffective.

And now we're opening states back up and we'll no doubt see another huge increase in cases (because how can you not when no one is social distancing anymore), but there's zero chance we'll have another lockdown. The government won't support it and the people won't abide by it.

So I guess the plan is to hope we stay alive long enough for some one to come up with a vaccine?

We can hope the next wave of infections hits those who think this is all a hoax and refuse to wear masks or social distance....but we know they are probably like drunk drivers who cause the wreck but often end up the least injured.

 

[Tryamw]

We can hope the next wave of infections hits those who think this is all a hoax and refuse to wear masks or social distance....but we know they are probably like drunk drivers who cause the wreck but often end up the least injured.

Yep... Lost a friend to one of them Drunk drivers... (Not recently...)

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I mean, at this point, we're screwed, right?

The whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, ease off the hospitals, and give the government time to make a plan to get some control of the outbreak. But that plan never came. There was no widespread testing, no concentrated effort to get in front of it. So the lockdown was largely ineffective.

And now we're opening states back up and we'll no doubt see another huge increase in cases (because how can you not when no one is social distancing anymore), but there's zero chance we'll have another lockdown. The government won't support it and the people won't abide by it.

So I guess the plan is to hope we stay alive long enough for some one to come up with a vaccine?

There won't be federal lockdown, and there might not even be state lockdowns, but there will be city lockdowns, and smart people (who have the means to do so) will continue to distance regardless.

I'm ready to be at home until December or longer for the most part.

 

[Canes]

Nice little experiment the Nordic/Scandinavian countries are running for us....

I mean yeah, it looks bad for them now but their thinking was long term herd immunity. Will their deaths start to decline eventually while countries that locked down start seeing 2nd and even 3rd spikes which could be even worse than the 1st spike if it's anything like the Spanish flu? No one really knows. I know what they're doing is deeply unpopular with a lot of people but it's too early to say how their plan will turn out overall.

 

[MinJaBen]

I mean yeah, it looks bad for them now but their thinking was long term herd immunity. Will their deaths start to decline eventually while countries that locked down start seeing 2nd and even 3rd spikes which could be even worse than the 1st spike if it's anything like the Spanish flu? No one really knows. I know what they're doing is deeply unpopular with a lot of people but it's too early to say how their plan will turn out overall.

A recent random testing of Swedes showed only about 7% of their population had anti-COVID-19 antibodies. That is not a great result for building herd immunity. At the rate they are going, a vaccine will be ready long before they get herd immunity the natural way. And many more people will be dead than should have been.

 

[Lempo]

So I guess the plan is to hope we stay alive long enough for some one to come up with a vaccine?

Life goin' nowhere, somebody help me

 

[GindyDraws]

We can hope the next wave of infections hits those who think this is all a hoax and refuse to wear masks or social distance....but we know they are probably like drunk drivers who cause the wreck but often end up the least injured.

Ain't that the truth.

The people who take it seriously suffer and the idiots who act like it's no big deal live long.

 

[GindyDraws]

I mean yeah, it looks bad for them now but their thinking was long term herd immunity. Will their deaths start to decline eventually while countries that locked down start seeing 2nd and even 3rd spikes which could be even worse than the 1st spike if it's anything like the Spanish flu? No one really knows. I know what they're doing is deeply unpopular with a lot of people but it's too early to say how their plan will turn out overall.

Problem with people is you're constantly battling a war of attrition between safety and freedom; you know you want to keep personal freedoms, but deep down, safety is important in keeping everyone healthy and, you know, alive? Yet, people act like it's a permanent thing, especially in America, where large swaths of people are raised to fear and hate authoritarian groups and assume something like this was just the thing they needed to swoop in and be all Big Brother (even though I bet you more of them likely have seen most seasons of the reality TV show than actually picked up a George Orwell novel outside of grade school for assignment). Look, I got laid off from work, and it's affecting my depression real bad, but I'm still going to wear my mask when I go outside and stay far away from people as I don't want to get sick and I don't want to be negligent, and then I see people who, for years, envisioned wanting to be survivalists, and then when they get their chance... wuss out and demand everything reopen immediately.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

While not elderly and barely middle aged, this was my late husband's option as well. His team of Drs. wanted him to be hospitalized and try a series of treatments with minuscule to no chance of success and a possible tracheostomy. After almost 5 years of suffering, he said no and opted for 2.5 months of good drugs, good food, good wine, and good company with family and friends at the end.

When we had Urology, the head of the clinic said in one lesson that a young doctors are worried if they treat the patient the right way.
Old doctors are worried if treating the patient is the right thing.

 

[Joe McGrath]

The not wearing a mask to the grocery store or wherever thing is baffling to me. You don’t have the freedom to step on private property and endanger other people, you asshole.

 

[MinJaBen]

The not wearing a mask to the grocery store or wherever thing is baffling to me. You don’t have the freedom to step on private property and endanger other people, you asshole.

Got to find a way to own the libs...

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The not wearing a mask to the grocery store or wherever thing is baffling to me. You don’t have the freedom to step on private property and endanger other people, you asshole.

I mean if the owner of the private property allows you in without a mask then yeah you do... unless Harris Teeter or wherever make a “mandatory mask policy” an argument from freedom probably isn’t the way to go.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I mean if the owner of the private property allows you in without a mask then yeah you do... unless Harris Teeter or wherever make a “mandatory mask policy” an argument from freedom probably isn’t the way to go.

That’s what I mean. If an employee says you need to wear a mask because it’s store policy, you need to wear a mask. Just like no shirt no shoes no service signs.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

That’s what I mean. If an employee says you need to wear a mask because it’s store policy, you need to wear a mask. Just like no shirt no shoes no service signs.

Gotcha, you might’ve been referring to previous discussion I wasn’t aware of, thought you were just talking generally.

Every grocery store I’ve been to is still pretty much 50/50 on people wearing them.

 

[bleedgreen]

Colorado has said it’s a requirement to have a mask in any indoor public areas like stores. They can and do ask you to leave or don’t let you in if you don’t have one.

There was a shooting here where a man not served at a restaurant because he wouldn’t wear it inside while ordering shot an employee.

These are the times.

 

[hblueridgegal]

That’s surprisingly low considering the effort going into the global race for a vaccine against the coronavirus that has sparked a pandemic since first emerging from China late last year. But more people might eventually roll up their sleeves: The poll, released Wednesday, found 31% simply weren’t sure if they’d get vaccinated. Another 1 in 5 said they’d refuse.

Every day brings something more eye opening.

 

[To Be Determined]

That’s what I mean. If an employee says you need to wear a mask because it’s store policy, you need to wear a mask. Just like no shirt no shoes no service signs.

i've been mystified by the anger from the right wing directed at, say, costco for requiring masks - do you support the free market economy or not? go somewhere else, and take your sweet, sweet money with you. but maybe my associating free market with conservatives (in general, in the US) is just me being ignorant.

 

[GindyDraws]

i've been mystified by the anger from the right wing directed at, say, costco for requiring masks - do you support the free market economy or not? go somewhere else, and take your sweet, sweet money with you. but maybe my associating free market with conservatives (in general, in the US) is just me being ignorant.

My issue is some people assume free market solves everything; the theory is, if you want something that badly, you'll work for it. Ignoring numerous factors like maybe you're only working out of obligation, maybe you're not really into what you're working towards and it's purely for status, the effort is tied to salary, and so on.

I know this sounds like I'm teetering towards "red" talk, but I do believe that capitalism is capable of good things. However, capitalism left to its own devices is guaranteed to screw lots of people over, and as a result, should ideally be regulated and nitpicked. But, the people who believe in free market do not believe in regulations.