The Athletic Corey Pronman - Buffalo Has the Top Farm System and It Isn’t Really Close

[Doug Prishpreed]

Whatever you do, please don’t make a “top 10 over 23” list. We must have the worst list in the league by a fair amount based on that criteria

 

[jc17]

That's a good point, I had us projected for the bottom 15 next year but I wasn't taking the three first round picks into account...no way to accurately predict until we know who we end up taking.

Idk how much who we take will influence it unless we take giant reaches or get someone falls.

There's a good chance we get someone ranked in the top 15 and then a few 20-35. It's predictable and probably won't change much other than the fact that we have more 1st round talents.

The actual people we pick probably don't influence our ranking until their draft +1 year.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

FWIW, Dahlin and Mittelstadt went 1 and 2 in the NHL.com draft of all prospects as well.

Dahlin, Mittelstadt lead selections in prospects mock draft

ROUND 1

Morreale: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
The easiest pick to make, not only because it's imperative to build your franchise from the defense out, but because Dahlin is the unquestioned best prospect on the board. He'll be a top-pair player in Buffalo as an 18-year-old rookie this season and a likely finalist for the Calder Trophy.

Kimelman: Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres
Watching Mittelstadt seamlessly fit into the Sabres lineup at the end of last season, there's no question in my mind the 19-year-old is the best forward available, and an easy first-round pick for Team Kimelman.

 

[Jim Bob]

Why? They're prospects at this point.

And he did do a list of 23 and under???

But he used the term farm system. Like they are going to Rochester.

It amuses me.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Whatever you do, please don’t make a “top 10 over 23” list. We must have the worst list in the league by a fair amount based on that criteria

You havent seen Detroit's roster then. They are atrocious and every one of their players makes damn near 4 mil.

 

[Jim Bob]

Dahlin, Mittelstadt lead selections in prospects mock draft

ROUND 1

Morreale: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
The easiest pick to make, not only because it's imperative to build your franchise from the defense out, but because Dahlin is the unquestioned best prospect on the board. He'll be a top-pair player in Buffalo as an 18-year-old rookie this season and a likely finalist for the Calder Trophy.

Kimelman: Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres
Watching Mittelstadt seamlessly fit into the Sabres lineup at the end of last season, there's no question in my mind the 19-year-old is the best forward available, and an easy first-round pick for Team Kimelman.

ROUND 17

Kimelman: Mattias Samuelsson, D, Buffalo Sabres
Good teams need players to fill different roles, and Samuelsson (6-foot-4, 217) provides smart defensive-zone play, intimidating physicality and a developing offensive game. A left shot, the 18-year-old is smart and skilled enough to slide to the right side on Team Kimelman's top defense pair and allow Hughes to get the most out of his sublime talent.

I'm guessing that Kimelman can see Samuelsson as a potential Dahlin partner down the road.

 

[Moskau]

And particularly votes Davidsson and Laaksonen higher than the voters here. I suspect most people just don't know enough about those two to get as hyped as Pronman is.

He put Laaksonen at #7 after admitting to watching him only once or twice. Kind of tells you all you need to know about lists like these.

 

[Dingo44]

He put Laaksonen at #7 after admitting to watching him only once or twice. Kind of tells you all you need to know about lists like these.

I think he talks to GM's and scouts too. No one could single-handedly watch multiple games and pay attention to every player in every team's prospect pool by themselves.

 

[old kummelweck]

I laugh when they talk about Mitts and Dahlin being a part of the Sabres farm system right now.

I just wish they would do lists of players that are 23 and under or 25 and under and not "prospects" lists.

But, that's just me.

 

[LetsDoughBuffalo]

hmmm... that's silly... So, Thompson is no longer a prospect because a bunch of St Louis forwards got injured last year? That seems... dumb

Based on the criteria, he also shouldn't have listed Bailey then either

 

[Zip15]

He put Laaksonen at #7 after admitting to watching him only once or twice. Kind of tells you all you need to know about lists like these.

I remember when he ranked Mitts around #11 in his final 2017 draft ranking, and then became Pronman's second highest-ranked 2017 draftee in his overall prospect rankings before the 2017 season. That bump was based entirely on the Lake Placid camp. He then admitted to watching almost nothing of Mitts prior to his FINAL draft rankings.

Pronman puts out a lot of content. And that's appreciated. But...he's not great.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I remember when he ranked Mitts around #11 in his final 2017 draft ranking, and then became Pronman's second highest-ranked 2017 draftee in his overall prospect rankings before the 2017 season. That bump was based entirely on the Lake Placid camp. He then admitted to watching almost nothing of Mitts prior to his FINAL draft rankings.

Pronman puts out a lot of content. And that's appreciated. But...he's not great.

He's also not wrong with the overall thrust of the article in this case, however.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

I guess Thompson would be ranked 3.5 on the prospect list if he met the criteria.

Interesting; based on his compete alone I'd have him at three or four likely. I like his off the puck play and play on the boards. He still has some work to put in with his skating and defensive play. However, he's a decent enough prospect.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Id be interested to see where we rank once Dahlin and Mitts inevitably graduate this year. When that happens I could see us being bottom 10

We have 3 1sts this year I doubt that will happen

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I laugh when they talk about Mitts and Dahlin being a part of the Sabres farm system right now.

I just wish they would do lists of players that are 23 and under or 25 and under and not "prospects" lists.

But, that's just me.

So Dahlin hasn't played an NHL game and you think he is not a prospect? So what is he?

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I feel like including Dahlin is cheating a bit. But alas, even if pronman excluded Dahlin, Buffalo likely has a top-10 pool with how he heavily weights high end prospects.

The one thing we can learn from CPs 31 team analysis is that every team has multiple Asplund/Guhle level prospects. It’s tough to part with them, but every team has a few of them.

What I am impressed by, at least in Pronmans analysis, is the sheer depth the Sabres have in the organization’s farm system. He rates Asplund as a “has a shot” prospect, I’d consider him more of a “legit NHL prospect” considering his floor and ceiling are pretty tight in hat he projects to be a good 3c.

Another point: Pronman has 15(!) players in the system ranked higher than “depth”. For reference, Vancouver has 13, STL 12, Carolina 17, NYI 18.

Again, having Dahlin listed probably puts buffalo in the top-5 even if every other prospect was excluded. But with a solid depth and height of the prospect pool, coupled with having two major cornerstones in Eichel/Dahlin, solid pieces in Mittelstadt/Reinhart/Risto, and a plethora of good prospects like Guhle, Asplund and Nylander with three first round picks next year there is no way Botterill ****s this up, right?

Assuming he doesn’t trade those extra firsts, Buffalo should have a good (7-15 ranked) prospect pool over the next few seasons. It’s exciting.

What is it with people posting that Dahlin isn't a prospect? The kid has not played an NHL game and is 18 That makes him a prospect.

 

[sabrebuild]

What is it with people posting that Dahlin isn't a prospect? The kid has not played an NHL game and is 18 That makes him a prospect.

It’s kind of a silly Label for a guy who will be a top 4 defender the minute he plays his first game.

It’s not that it’s incorrect, but it doesn’t really make sense to base how strong your prospect group is, based on a 1st overall pick who isn’t going to be a prospect for even 6 months after the draft.

It’d be like saying Edmonton had a sick prospect pool when they drafted McDavid. Well three years later, none of those prospects worked out, except McDavid, Draisatl would have had too many games by this standard to be a prospect, so was that a smart way to describe the player? Or should some guys be in their own category.

 

[Jame]

I remember when he ranked Mitts around #11 in his final 2017 draft ranking, and then became Pronman's second highest-ranked 2017 draftee in his overall prospect rankings before the 2017 season. That bump was based entirely on the Lake Placid camp. He then admitted to watching almost nothing of Mitts prior to his FINAL draft rankings.

Pronman puts out a lot of content. And that's appreciated. But...he's not great.

Are you a little bitter for following his lead on Mitts pre-draft?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

We have 3 1sts this year I doubt that will happen

What are you basing this on -- blind optimism? So many posters on here habitually assume that the most positive possible outcome is the only likely outcome.

Boston had 3 picks in the first half of the first round a few years ago and they are still ranked at the bottom of the league.

 

[Zip15]

Are you a little bitter for following his lead on Mitts pre-draft?

First, it was Urback who was low on him, not Pronman. I didn't love Mitts pre-draft, but I wasn't initially low on him: in April 2017, had him in my second tier of forwards with Vilardi, below only Nico and Patrick, and above guys like Glass and Pettersson (who I really warmed to leading up to the draft). From April 2017:

If we're talking forward tiers, here's how I'd have it:

Patrick, Hischier

Vilardi, Mittelstadt

[I assume those guys are gone by the time we pick 6th or 7th]

Pettersson, Tippett, Glass, Rasmussen
Tolvanen, Necas

If we're taking a forward from that 3rd tier, I like Pettersson. I like what I've heard about his possession game and untapped offensive potential. Also, at some point we have to consider acquiring some LH shots, as just about every forward with a moderate to high offensive ceiling who projects to be here after next season, save ROR, is RH: Eichel, Reinhart, Okposo, Nylander, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching.

I do think we'll take a defenseman, but if we did take a forward, I'd take a hard look at Pettersson.

[Give me some credit for that early look on Pettersson!] I cooled on Mitts as the draft approached as I was concerned about some of his 5v5 scoring - a question that he still has to answer, as he wasn't exactly gangbusters at Minnesota, quality of teammates notwithstanding. It turned out to be a good pick. I'll happily admit it wasn't my greatest opinion.

As an aside, I was hardly alone in my ambivalent stance towards Casey. Check out this thread:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/grade-the-sabres-2017-draft.2362333/

Plenty of B-'s and C+'s in there. The Mitts pick may be Stokes' shining moment - gave the pick an A+!

Also, you had him ranked 9th, so there wasn't much daylight between you and I on Mitts:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...ick-8th-part-2.2226585/page-34#post-133548663

 

[Jame]

First, it was Urback who was low on him, not Pronman. I didn't love Mitts pre-draft, but I wasn't initially low on him: in April 2017, had him in my second tier of forwards with Vilardi, below only Nico and Patrick, and above guys like Glass and Pettersson (who I really warmed to leading up to the draft). From April 2017:

If we're talking forward tiers, here's how I'd have it:

Patrick, Hischier

Vilardi, Mittelstadt

[I assume those guys are gone by the time we pick 6th or 7th]

Pettersson, Tippett, Glass, Rasmussen
Tolvanen, Necas

If we're taking a forward from that 3rd tier, I like Pettersson. I like what I've heard about his possession game and untapped offensive potential. Also, at some point we have to consider acquiring some LH shots, as just about every forward with a moderate to high offensive ceiling who projects to be here after next season, save ROR, is RH: Eichel, Reinhart, Okposo, Nylander, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching.

I do think we'll take a defenseman, but if we did take a forward, I'd take a hard look at Pettersson.

[Give me some credit for that early look on Pettersson!] I cooled on Mitts as the draft approached as I was concerned about some of his 5v5 scoring - a question that he still has to answer, as he wasn't exactly gangbusters at Minnesota, quality of teammates notwithstanding. It turned out to be a good pick. I'll happily admit it wasn't my greatest opinion.

As an aside, I was hardly alone in my ambivalent stance towards Casey. Check out this thread:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/grade-the-sabres-2017-draft.2362333/

Plenty of B-'s and C+'s in there. The Mitts pick may be Stokes' shining moment - gave the pick an A+!

Also, you had him ranked 9th, so there wasn't much daylight between you and I on Mitts:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...ick-8th-part-2.2226585/page-34#post-133548663

Yea, it was the 5x5 scoring narrative that stuck in my craw... thought that was a Pronman Special

 

[jc17]

Draft thread is fun to look back on.

I'm happy to be wrong about Mittelstadt, although the guys I wanted like Yamamoto, Suzuki, and Pettersson are looking pretty good

 

[Dingo44]

Hey - we're number one! So nice to have such a great pool of players coming.

 

[Genny Screamer]

What are you basing this on -- blind optimism? So many posters on here habitually assume that the most positive possible outcome is the only likely outcome.

Boston had 3 picks in the first half of the first round a few years ago and they are still ranked at the bottom of the league.

In 2015 Boston drafted Jacob Zboril (13th), Jake DeBrusk (14th) and Zachary Senyshyn (15th). Pronman ranked Boston 28th in prospects, but that's because many of their picks graduated. DeBrusk is a solid player and had a wonderful 1st year in the NHL. Senyshyn and Zboril are ranked 8th and 9th respectively in their prospect rankings. Imagine if they drafted Barzal, Connor or Boeser?

In 2016 they drafted Charlie McAvoy (14th) and Trent Frederic (29th). McAvoy is one of the best young defensemen in the league. Frederic is their 5th best prospect.

In 2017 they drafted Urho Vaakanainan with the 18th pick. He is ranked their 2nd best prospect. In 2019 they didn't draft in the first.

Yes, I agree. Boston's 2015 could have been much better considering that Barzal, Connor and Boeser were available, but if you hit on just one or two you're still in good shape. I guess I like to look at the positives instead of the negatives. Any time you are drafting kids you might get one pick wrong, but I would rather have more chances at making the right pick.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

What are you basing this on -- blind optimism? So many posters on here habitually assume that the most positive possible outcome is the only likely outcome.

Boston had 3 picks in the first half of the first round a few years ago and they are still ranked at the bottom of the league.

And? Sorry I have more faith in my team than you. I am basing it on Botts solid drafting ability.

What are you basing we will draft busts on? Bind pessimism?

Goes both ways.