"Contract year"

[Osprey]

I think that it's largely confirmation bias. The fact that dozens of players elevate their play each year while in contract years doesn't prove the phenomenon. There are over 700 hundred players in the league. Probably nearly a third of them are in contract years at any time. There will always be at least dozens of them who underperform, dozens who perform about the same and dozens who overperform. We tend to notice the latter because they're in the spotlight and we like putting reasons to things. We don't notice the rest nearly as much.

There likely is motivation to improve when your contract is coming up and less of it after signing a contract. I'm not saying that that's hogwash or a non-factor, but I doubt that it has as much effect on a player's performance as many people believe. There are probably other factors that are more responsible for a player's increase or drop in production, IMO.

 

[Mr Positive]

There's also the factor of the teammates and even coach knowing it's a big deal for a player on their contract year, and getting pucks to them more often and otherwise boosting them however they can. It can be a net positive in that it fosters togetherness on the team to support each other that way

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Both points can be true.

I'm not sure why it has to be one or the other..

When it's being used as evidence of the "contract year" definitely being a thing, ambiguity is an issue. If he were still playing 2C and getting PP2 time and still increased his production, that would be good evidence. But, when he's getting 2 more minutes per game and getting a lot more offensive opportunities, there's too many possible explanations for me to believe any one of them without additional evidence.

 

[Phil Kessels Hot Dog]

Forwards in their prime sign for what, roughly $100k per point? If my agent came to me and said, every point you earn next season is worth $700,000 on a 7 year deal, I would train like an absolute demon that off season. And probably take all the gear I could get my hands on too.

 

[Golden_Jet]

@IWantSakicAsMyGM
Jeff skinner
2 years before contract 24 goals
Year leading into contract 40 goals
Signs 9 million AAV for 8 years
First year of deal 14 goals

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Not for Drouin...

 

[Seanaconda]

@IWantSakicAsMyGM
Jeff skinner
2 years before contract 24 goals
Year leading into contract 40 goals
Signs 9 million AAV for 8 years
First year of deal 14 goals

Skinners entire career is him bouncing from 35-40 ish goal seasons to 20 ish seasons

 

[Handshot]

It might be a thing, I'd lean to probably is. But this is also something where the perception is heavily affected by confirmation bias. Everyone remembers the guys that absolutely went off and secured a huge contract, and nobody remembers the guys that had terrible seasons and faded into obscurity shortly afterwards

 

[Grifter3511]

Is there any truth to this phenomenon? The implication being a player might be somehow 'trying harder' than ordinary and/or padding his stats during a contract year to get more money, and that the player won't try that hard/put that performance or numbers again after getting the contract.

Never believed in such a thing, always thought it was hogwash and fantasy. Do you?

When did JT Miller have his career year?
How is Horvat's contract year going so far?

Please don't take this post as me 100% believing in contract year peaks, but there does seem to be an awful lot of coincidences.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Is there any truth to this phenomenon? The implication being a player might be somehow 'trying harder' than ordinary and/or padding his stats during a contract year to get more money, and that the player won't try that hard/put that performance or numbers again after getting the contract.

Never believed in such a thing, always thought it was hogwash and fantasy. Do you?

Different sport, but Judge just had maybe the best contract year anyone could have. It's definitely a thing.