News Article: Contract talks for Senators’ Matt Duchene: update - no numbers [Part 2]

[coladin]

Is that so far fetched?
And that's not the only thing OTT has going for it. Here he'll be the #1 center for the forseeable future. Is that true for the "winning" team? Perhaps he doesn't see the Senators as being that far off?
If PD comes in with a fair total number, but the bonuses or movement clauses are bit short of what the open market would get him, is there enough going on here to get his name on the dotted line? I like to think that's the "bigger picture" conversation Brisson talked about a couple weeks ago - how much are the Senator's unique benefits worth? Do they overcome the organizational and financial/stability drawbacks? There's only one person who can answer that question.

Players love to play, and Duchen gets a lot of ice time, PP time. A lot of other markets, he is looking at 20 second per PP time, probably. YOu makesome good points about being the No.1 center, and his stats support that he has never produced more. Can he balance out this throw away season with genuine optimisim? Does he want to leave this team as he left Colorado? He didn't believe in that team, and they showed him. Maybe he has learned about patience, grass isn't always greener and all that.

 

[coladin]

Rich people tend to enjoy living far away from the rest of the plebe. Gated communities aren't only about protecting themselved from the poor, its also about keeping the tribe together.

Is that what the rich. or as you mentioned earlier, the very rich people tell you? Gee, I don't want to compare Rolodexes here, but I have certainly never had that expressed to me.

Quite the assumptions

 

[slamigo]

Is that what the rich. or as you mentioned earlier, the very rich people tell you? Gee, I don't want to compare Rolodexes here, but I have certainly never had that expressed to me.

Quite the assumptions

Yup. I have a couple of friends that are loaded and I didn't even realize. I thought that they were doing well, but was shocked at how much they're actually worth. People are people. It isn't a movie or Instagram post. Especially hockey players. I've met a ton of them through my kids playing hockey and they're almost all totally normal everyday people.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Players love to play, and Duchen gets a lot of ice time, PP time. A lot of other markets, he is looking at 20 second per PP time, probably. YOu makesome good points about being the No.1 center, and his stats support that he has never produced more. Can he balance out this throw away season with genuine optimisim? Does he want to leave this team as he left Colorado? He didn't believe in that team, and they showed him. Maybe he has learned about patience, grass isn't always greener and all that.

There is no other market that would be interested in signing him where he's looking at 20 seconds of 2nd PP time. That's a stretch.

Pittsburgh's reportedly interested in him to play with Crosby. On Nashville, he'd be their best offensive forward. With the Sharks, he'd be their #1 center. Same with the Islanders, Montreal or Vegas. All of those teams are better now, and for the forseeable future.

No the grass isn't always greener, but when you look at the state of this franchise, in this situation, it most certainly is.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Is that what the rich. or as you mentioned earlier, the very rich people tell you? Gee, I don't want to compare Rolodexes here, but I have certainly never had that expressed to me.

Quite the assumptions

It is my personal experience and the data bears it out to a degree.

Humans are tribal, there is nothing mysterious.

 

[JD1]

There just so much going against the Sens, I hope he stays, but I'm not sure why he would.

This is MY pro and con list, from what I would view from Duchenes mindset. Obviously it would differ for others and likely Duchene.

Ottawa Pros
-Able to offer an 8th year
-Able to offer a letter
-Able to offer the #1C
-Great place to live
-Childhood home is 4 hours away
-Young team
-Just had a baby

Ottawa Cons
-Can't compete financially
-They are dead last in the league right now, and seem to be within a position or 2 of where they will finish the year.
-Won't be getting the young star teams that struggle like the Sens have do at the draft
-They have young prospects, no doubt. But they only have 1 star guy in Chabot, after that they have some very nice pieces that aren't uncommon among the rest of the teams in NHL.
-Possibly selling more off at the deadline
-GM stated as loudly as anyone they could for anyone to listen that they were in a rebuild, First thing I said upon arrival was I couldn't handle another rebuild.
-All the bad press and incidents since the day I arrived
-Teams future aspects uncertain
-2 other best players are set to be UFA, Sens don't seem to be in the market to keep them all
-I've only been here for a year, don't have anything set in the ground

UFA pros
-Teans always overpay for guys, I will be the top C on the market
-I get to choose where I play
-I will be on a team in a better situation
-Will be able to find a great place to live
-Lockout bonus
-Better contract structure

UFA cons
-Can only sign 7 years
-Possibility I may not have the options I want
-Potential injury after the deadline
-Team I choose decides to rebuild shortly into my contract

I tend to agree with most of what you've said here but i don't agree that Duchene gets to choose where he plays. To some degree yes, but not fully.

There are a lot of quality centers around the league that are signed to big money long term deals. How many can afford a 9M centre? And if they do sign him, what must they deal out the door with no contracts coming back?

I presume that his agent company has every contra t on every team mapped out along with ice time availability, pp time etc.

If you flip it around and say i want:

To be a 1c
To have big PP minutes
To play 18+ minutes a night

AND

The team:
must be a contender
Have solid prospects

You somewhat run out of real estate. Just for starters if he wants to be a 1C and you perceive that he is 15ish amongst 1Cs, then that pretty much rules out 15 teams doesn't it?

Sure you can theoretically say that as a UFA you can sign with any team. However that is likely more true for a 28 year old D man looking for a 5*5 type contract than it is for a guy that wants to be a 1c with an 7*9 contract.

And when you rule out where he can't sign, then you have to assees the prospects for winning where he can sign along wity any other factors that interest him.

 

[The Lewler]

I tend to agree with most of what you've said here but i don't agree that Duchene gets to choose where he plays. To some degree yes, but not fully.

There are a lot of quality centers around the league that are signed to big money long term deals. How many can afford a 9M centre? And if they do sign him, what must they deal out the door with no contracts coming back?

I presume that his agent company has every contra t on every team mapped out along with ice time availability, pp time etc.

If you flip it around and say i want:

To be a 1c
To have big PP minutes
To play 18+ minutes a night

AND

The team:
must be a contender
Have solid prospects

You somewhat run out of real estate. Just for starters if he wants to be a 1C and you perceive that he is 15ish amongst 1Cs, then that pretty much rules out 15 teams doesn't it?

Sure you can theoretically say that as a UFA you can sign with any team. However that is likely more true for a 28 year old D man looking for a 5*5 type contract than it is for a guy that wants to be a 1c with an 7*9 contract.

And when you rule out where he can't sign, then you have to assees the prospects for winning where he can sign along wity any other factors that interest him.

So then, I know it's similar to the trade thread, but let's identify who could reasonably pitch for him as a UFA and need a centre, without having to make a bunch of trades (I agree its not actually as easy as it seems)

-Vancouver
-New York Islanders
-Arizona
-Carolina
-New Jersey
-Vegas
- Columbus
-Ottawa

This is just me really quickly skimming. You can all go through and pick apart stuff, but in my uneducated opinion, looking at that list, you'd probably be stuck saying.. who?

• NJ and Vegas are the closest sure thing to competitive in the near future? (Yes yes, parity, rapid change etc)

• Columbus is going to lose Bobrovsky and maybe Panarin, so that sends up similar red flags to Ottawa, but they'll have cap space. If they keep Panarin and then pitch for you to play on a line with him, I guess that's a plus.

There are some interesting comparisons to be made for sure. Like if you are betting on a turn around, who do you think of Van/NYI/ARI/CAR/OTT is best positioned to do it most rapidly?

 

[BondraTime]

So then, I know it's similar to the trade thread, but let's identify who could reasonably pitch for him as a UFA and need a centre, without having to make a bunch of trades (I agree its not actually as easy as it seems)

-Vancouver
-New York Islanders
-Arizona
-Carolina
-New Jersey
-Vegas
- Columbus
-Ottawa

This is just me really quickly skimming. You can all go through and pick apart stuff, but in my uneducated opinion, looking at that list, you'd probably be stuck saying.. who?

• NJ and Vegas are the closest sure thing to competitive in the near future? (Yes yes, parity, rapid change etc)

• Columbus is going to lose Bobrovsky and maybe Panarin, so that sends up similar red flags to Ottawa, but they'll have cap space. If they keep Panarin and then pitch for you to play on a line with him, I guess that's a plus.

There are some interesting comparisons to be made for sure. Like if you are betting on a turn around, who do you think of Van/NYI/ARI/CAR/OTT is best positioned to do it most rapidly?

Lots of teams can, and will go after him, just like the top teams that went after Tavares this year, or Hossa when he went to UFA, or Richards when he did, or Gaborik when he did, or Gomez when he did, or Suter and Parise when they both did. There will be many teams looking for Duchene, he isn't going to be limited to a few teams with cap room, like every other big UFA wasn't limited to a few teams with cap room. Teams always, always find room for these guys.

 

[Micklebot]

Lots of teams can, and will go after him, just like the top teams that went after Tavares this year, or Hossa when he went to UFA, or Richards when he did, or Gaborik when he did, or Gomez when he did, or Suter and Parise when they both did. There will be many teams looking for Duchene, he isn't going to be limited to a few teams with cap room, like every other big UFA wasn't limited to a few teams with cap room. Teams always, always find room for these guys.

Big reason I could see lots of teams being interested is that Duchene is an excellent LW as well.

Lots of teams will have ample room for him as a deadline acquisition, and can make room in the offseason if he fits in and they want to extend him.

 

[Artanis]

You would think that Duchenes agent already told Pierre if he's willing to stay or go, and yet an offer still hasn't been made? He's as good as gone, same with Stone.

 

[DrEasy]

You would think that Duchenes agent already told Pierre if he's willing to stay or go, and yet an offer still hasn't been made? He's as good as gone, same with Stone.

Either way, the prudent thing to do for the GM would be to shop him around already. You don't want to have to scramble at the last minute if Duchene doesn't accept whatever offer you are making him, and potentially make a bad desperation deal. And if someone makes a good trade offer, you either accept the trade or you maybe make one last attempt at re-signing him.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Yeah, so I was right about the other thread title being overly hopeful.

They're trading Duchene. Better get used to the idea.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Teams can turn around in a hurry these days....but you also need to spend money to turn around in a hurry.

Ottawa is going to rely almost completely on our kids and whoever we draft over the next few years. Eugene won't open the pocketbook for a 2D or 2C in the future to put us over the top, especially if Stone and/or Duchene are still here.

We will be better in the future, but there is a definite artificial limit to how much we will ever be able to compete with our current owner. I don't see any athlete banking on a miracle run as part of their plans here.

 

[swiftwin]

Sure. Duchene's priority is winning, as he's said in countless interviews over the last 2.5 seasons in Colorado and Ottawa.

That's why I believe Duchene will want to sign here. He understands that it's better to be on a young team on the upswing instead of an established team about to fall. Look at Kovy in LA, or even Duchene coming here.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Teams can turn around in a hurry these days....but you also need to spend money to turn around in a hurry.

Ottawa is going to rely almost completely on our kids and whoever we draft over the next few years. Eugene won't open the pocketbook for a 2D or 2C in the future to put us over the top, especially if Stone and/or Duchene are still here.

We will be better in the future, but there is a definite artificial limit to how much we will ever be able to compete with our current owner. I don't see any athlete banking on a miracle run as part of their plans here.

That's a bold statement(literally and figuratively).

 

[foggyvisor]

That's why I believe Duchene will want to sign here. He understands that it's better to be on a young team on the upswing instead of an established team about to fall. Look at Kovy in LA, or even Duchene coming here.

We can only be considered on the "upswing" because we are at the bottom and there is nowhere else to go.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Teams can turn around in a hurry these days....but you also need to spend money to turn around in a hurry.

Ottawa is going to rely almost completely on our kids and whoever we draft over the next few years. Eugene won't open the pocketbook for a 2D or 2C in the future to put us over the top, especially if Stone and/or Duchene are still here.

We will be better in the future, but there is a definite artificial limit to how much we will ever be able to compete with our current owner. I don't see any athlete banking on a miracle run as part of their plans here.

Yup. Stone and Duchene seem like pretty smart guys. I'm sure they realize that even if things can turn around, the budget will always dictate that the team will never be able to turn in to a consistent contender. Cinderella runs will be their only hope. A new arena downtown possibly improving that isn't going to do anything for them either since they'd almost be done their contract by then. Their reality would be to stay on a team only able to spend 65-75% of the cap ceiling and you can't consistently compete with that. If playing on a contender or one that can turn in to a contender is their priority, they won't stay.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

That's why I believe Duchene will want to sign here. He understands that it's better to be on a young team on the upswing instead of an established team about to fall. Look at Kovy in LA, or even Duchene coming here.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

That's why I believe Duchene will want to sign here. He understands that it's better to be on a young team on the upswing instead of an established team about to fall. Look at Kovy in LA, or even Duchene coming here.

He's going to go to another team that is better run, closer to being a contender, make a lot more money and be lockout protected.

He is gone.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

That's a bold statement(literally and figuratively).

Well, we're in last place right now. Not like we can get any worse.

But like I said, there's a definite limit to how much upswing this team will have. We'll probably max out as a bubble team.

 

[JD1]

So then, I know it's similar to the trade thread, but let's identify who could reasonably pitch for him as a UFA and need a centre, without having to make a bunch of trades (I agree its not actually as easy as it seems)

-Vancouver
-New York Islanders
-Arizona
-Carolina
-New Jersey
-Vegas
- Columbus
-Ottawa

This is just me really quickly skimming. You can all go through and pick apart stuff, but in my uneducated opinion, looking at that list, you'd probably be stuck saying.. who?

• NJ and Vegas are the closest sure thing to competitive in the near future? (Yes yes, parity, rapid change etc)

• Columbus is going to lose Bobrovsky and maybe Panarin, so that sends up similar red flags to Ottawa, but they'll have cap space. If they keep Panarin and then pitch for you to play on a line with him, I guess that's a plus.

There are some interesting comparisons to be made for sure. Like if you are betting on a turn around, who do you think of Van/NYI/ARI/CAR/OTT is best positioned to do it most rapidly?

I don't know how big the list of prospective teams ultimately is, however i don't think it is 31 teams. I suspect it is closer to 1/2 the league

 

[JD1]

Lots of teams can, and will go after him, just like the top teams that went after Tavares this year, or Hossa when he went to UFA, or Richards when he did, or Gaborik when he did, or Gomez when he did, or Suter and Parise when they both did. There will be many teams looking for Duchene, he isn't going to be limited to a few teams with cap room, like every other big UFA wasn't limited to a few teams with cap room. Teams always, always find room for these guys.

I agree he isn't limited to teams with cap room as some teams could move contracts out to go after him but the point i am making is that it certainly isn't all teams and within those that might make a play you need to rule out where he wouldn't play.

We'll see how it plays out

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Well, we're in last place right now. Not like we can get any worse.

But like I said, there's a definite limit to how much upswing this team will have. We'll probably max out as a bubble team.

I feel like if we do end up getting rid of Stone and Duchene, we will get worse.

But not only worse: unwatchable. I don't care how many picks we get back.

 

[The Lewler]

I feel like if we do end up getting rid of Stone and Duchene, we will get worse.

But not only worse: unwatchable. I don't care how many picks we get back.

The boldest prediction in the history of HFSens.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

The boldest prediction in the history of HFSens.

Well, sure it seems obvious but that was in response to someone saying we can't get worse.