Conspiracy Theory - Holland's RFA leverage

BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
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London, ON
Here is a conspiracy theory of mine:

Holland wants to approach an RFA player and say:

"I only have this much money"

And thus has leverage (a CAP) at which he can negotiate.


Holland seems to have selected signing all the contracts in reverse order:

1) Sign UFA's
2) Sign lower end UFA's first Frk, Bertuzzi, AA. Before Mantha and Larkin
3) Soon to be sign Larkin and Mantha...

And Holland only has so much $$ to spend now...
This caps how high Mantha and Larkin can request as Holland can say "Sorry I just don't have the money".

Is this an elaborate plan to keep the RFA contracts lower on Larkin and Mantha???
Is this why Holland seems to sign too many Vets??
 

njx9

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Feb 1, 2016
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I mean, this is the first year in a fairly long time that he had two major RFAs to resign, isn't it? Hard for me to believe that he'd put that much into planning it, when most of these contracts seem to be pretty predictable (I don't remember the last time the consensus around here was off by more than like, 500K on one of these).
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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I think the players agents’ don’t care (like in AA’s case). More likely it’s just a timetable thing. Can work on RFA negotiations all summer. Work the numbers, add or remove a year, until you find a solution. UFAs need to be signed earlier and ”easy” RFAs don’t need as much crunching the numbers so they get done faster.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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Is this an elaborate plan to keep the RFA contracts lower on Larkin and Mantha???
Is this why Holland seems to sign too many Vets??

Sign too many vets? He brought in two skaters.

And no, he probably already has a good idea of what they'll sign for. But of course, as we saw with AA last year, people were ready to overpay AA because he's youth. As we're seeing today, people love a young player until he starts getting paid. I imagine Mantha will become the new whipping boy once he starts making $4+ million.
 

ricky0034

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Jun 8, 2010
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sounds like a stupid game to play with literally the only two players on the team that look like core players going forward

AA's one thing,intentionally damaging the relationship with Larkin and Mantha just to save a few bucks on the cap would be incredibly dumb
 
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BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
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London, ON
sounds like a stupid game to play with literally the only two players on the team that look like core players going forward

AA's one thing,intentionally damaging the relationship with Larkin and Mantha just to save a few bucks on the cap would be incredibly dumb

Ya I didn't say it was a good plan ;)
 
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Hugh Mongusbig

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Mar 7, 2012
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Here is a conspiracy theory of mine:

Is this an elaborate plan to keep the RFA contracts lower on Larkin and Mantha???
Is this why Holland seems to sign too many Vets??

If that was his plan, then it didn't work out all that well as Kenny still has what? about $10M in cap space to sign the two players..... That should be plenty, even if Larkin gets $5.5 and Mantha gets $3.5, which I heard being thrown around.

Current signings amount to $73.4M with a cap of $79.5M, so that's $6.1M plus the Franzen cap hit relief of $3.9M, so that looks to be about $10M in cap space.

If any of Ras, Zadina, or Hronek make the team, then figure in their cap hits which would amount to about $2.5M (for all three).

If Z goes on LTIR, then there's another $5M-$6M in space.

Kenny could always waive Frk or Witter, or trade Nyquist or AA if necessary.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
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Overthinking it.

1) Agents of players don’t care how much cap space you have

2) From the team’s perspective - RFA deals are all about comp’s, so they basically already know what to allot for Larkin and Mantha because the precedent has already been set
 

hyduK

Registered User
Feb 21, 2009
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Hopefully not. What a shit taste that'll leave in the mouths of guys like Larkin and Mantha.

If I was a young player in this franchise I'd already have one foot out of the door due to the impact signing all these washed up vets over the years has had on my playtime and potential development. Now you're letting it impact my income? Cool, give me whatever contract makes me UFA the quickest.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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Hopefully not. What a **** taste that'll leave in the mouths of guys like Larkin and Mantha.

If I was a young player in this franchise I'd already have one foot out of the door due to the impact signing all these washed up vets over the years has had on my playtime and potential development. Now you're letting it impact my income? Cool, give me whatever contract makes me UFA the quickest.

Well that’s a good thing that isn’t what’s happening then, huh?

And how on ****ing earth has Larkin been adversely affected by the veteran moves? He spent one playoff series in the AHL and has been top or second line his entire time in Detroit.

Mantha got kept down one playoff series where the Wings got jackhammered and has been basically a top line guy ever since.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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I’m not saying the Wings have even done a good job in building the team or anything... I’m so sick of this team being bad (which happens naturally as superstars become aged normal players) because you get guys who are totally Wings fans, bro, who spew nonstop hate on the team or ridiculous doom and gloom like we have no even decent players and we will be bad for decades.
 

hyduK

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Feb 21, 2009
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Well that’s a good thing that isn’t what’s happening then, huh?

And how on ****ing earth has Larkin been adversely affected by the veteran moves? He spent one playoff series in the AHL and has been top or second line his entire time in Detroit.

Mantha got kept down one playoff series where the Wings got jackhammered and has been basically a top line guy ever since.
Larkin is the exception to the rule. Can't think of another young player who hasn't spent more time than needed in the AHL/in the pressbox/getting terrible minutes so that Holland could sign some washed up vet.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Larkin is the exception to the rule. Can't think of another young player who hasn't spent more time than needed in the AHL/in the pressbox/getting terrible minutes so that Holland could sign some washed up vet.

DDk
Justin Abdelkader
Jurco

Off the top of my head
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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Larkin is the exception to the rule. Can't think of another young player who hasn't spent more time than needed in the AHL/in the pressbox/getting terrible minutes so that Holland could sign some washed up vet.
That’s a wide net you’re casting. Generally if a non-1st round kid comes up quickly he won’t always get big minutes because he’s not ready for it. If he doesn’t play well he’ll visit the pressbox. Disqualifying all these cases as if it’s always because Holland signed a veteran is dishonest.
 

Shaman464

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May 1, 2009
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Mantha is pretty much guaranteed 4 million now, because there is no way he looks at AA deal and doesn't demand more. Larkin will be higher, 6 isn't out of the question. Meaning Detroit will have little to no space for anyone beyond their current lineup. Adding even Cholo, Ras, or Z who are on ELCs would put them over the cap barring a trade.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Jul 6, 2012
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Mantha is pretty much guaranteed 4 million now, because there is no way he looks at AA deal and doesn't demand more. Larkin will be higher, 6 isn't out of the question. Meaning Detroit will have little to no space for anyone beyond their current lineup. Adding even Cholo, Ras, or Z who are on ELCs would put them over the cap barring a trade.

It's almost like there are a couple months before the season starts.

Zadina isn't Z. Dude, Zetterberg isn't even gone yet.
 
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Wingsfan 4 life

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Oct 9, 2016
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Even if so, it would only be a soft cap anyway. Anybody and everybody knows teams can go up to 10% over the cap until opening day.

IMO, Holland's approach sure looks to be easiest contracts to sign first. More complicated contracts last. By that, I mean in terms of contract structure.

Other than Bernier, everyone he's signed has been 1-2 years with little to no variation to salary structure.
 
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vladdy16

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Aug 2, 2005
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Larkin is the exception to the rule. Can't think of another young player who hasn't spent more time than needed in the AHL/in the pressbox/getting terrible minutes so that Holland could sign some washed up vet.

Give some examples then. What player in Detroits present or recent past, has been hurt by the presence of veterans on the team?
 

Shaman464

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Give some examples then. What player in Detroits present or recent past, has been hurt by the presence of veterans on the team?

Tatar and Nyquist come to mind, as they were NHL ready prior to being called up, but Holland signed retreads instead of letting them hit the NHL sooner. But its nearly impossible to play this 'what if' game because no matter who is brought up the counterfactual can be brought against it. So I think in the end, much like "who could Holland traded for" troupe, it can easily be a disingenuous "so there".
 

Reddwit

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Feb 4, 2016
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If you’re Larkin’s agent and this gameplan is even remotely implied, you politely tell Holland your client is more than willing to wait on signing while you find a way to make cap space.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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Tatar and Nyquist come to mind, as they were NHL ready prior to being called up, but Holland signed retreads instead of letting them hit the NHL sooner. But its nearly impossible to play this 'what if' game because no matter who is brought up the counterfactual can be brought against it. So I think in the end, much like "who could Holland traded for" troupe, it can easily be a disingenuous "so there".

How did it hurt their development?

Are they nowadays worse players, because they were promoted later?

Please answer with a proven fact.
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,212
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How did it hurt their development?

Are they nowadays worse players, because they were promoted later?

Please answer with a proven fact.
And this is the EXACT type of disingenuous response I predicted. We can only know the world how it is. In that world Nyquist and Tatar were blocked by vets when they were NHL ready. We can't know how that effected them. We can NEVER know how anything that didn't happen would affect the real world. Its a counterfactual. This is DEFINITIONAL. So please, when someone asks for a counterfactual and then you come back with YOU CAN'T PROVE THAT, you are literally just giving a 'so there', you aren't adding shit the conversation.
 

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