Player Discussion Connor McDavid Part VI: Hart, Ross and Lindsay Winner

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Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
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DC5RUT4VwAA53yt.jpg:large

:yo::yo::yo::yo:

Just the best.
 

frag2

Registered User
Mar 8, 2006
19,183
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Penguins fans sure are upset that McDavid won.

Yeesh.

It's the same group. Namely daver with his hypotethical scoring rate BS. I seriously wonder if said poster is just some bot because arguments are always the same. X player and Crosby were scoring at x rate and had the latter not missed 7 games etc etc

So much salt. The thought of possibly no longer having the best player on their team sure eats into them
 

Halibut

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Jul 24, 2010
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I guess he's ok but I was watching TSN and judging by all their gushing and highlights it's pretty obvious he's no Austin Matthews. :sarcasm:
 

frag2

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Mar 8, 2006
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Anyone actually arguing against McDavid as the winner is either a homer or stupid, or both.

Daver apparently said if Crosby played the 7 games, he'd likely win all of McDavid's awards, including Art Ross.

Last I checked, 82gp at 1.19 is only 97 pts.

:laugh:
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
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Daver apparently said if Crosby played the 7 games, he'd likely win all of McDavid's awards, including Art Ross.

Last I checked, 82gp at 1.19 is only 97 pts.

:laugh:

No kidding, to drive the point home, He leads the Oilers 100+ point season, he gets 100 point season, leads in PPG and scored 52 of his 100 points on the ****ing road.

That's an MVP, FULL STOP.

Edit: for **** sakes, Crosby didn't even get to 45 goals, let alone 50 where it would have "maybe" been a conversation. Crosby, imo, is less of an MVP then Bobrovsky.
 

McJadeddog

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Sep 25, 2003
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jesus you forget how much of a kid he still is until you see him in a suit or street clothes.... he looks about 17 years old in that pic, lol... i'm about to turn 40 next week though, so i'm old AF
 

Aceboogie

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKsyBVw1Etc

Off-season interview talking about playing with Ryan Strome. Audio is not the greatest, but towards the end of the interview he mentions again that he's been working mainly on improving his shot this summer.

RIP NHL goalies.

He just needs to shoot more. His over tendancy to pass is a deterrent to his point totals at times. Love him as a playmaker but damn sometimes he just needs to rip it on net when hes got a D screening the goalie in front of him. His shot is pretty good and weve seen it unleashed a few times. But he just needs to improve getting it off quicker + having the willingness to shoot more

McDavid grew up never having to shoot from outside tho, he could always just burn D and get in close. So his shot is like 2 years behind and one that catches up.... oh boy. Dude got 29 goals this year, 40 is not out of the picture soon
 

Soundwave

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Mar 1, 2007
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He just needs to shoot more. His over tendancy to pass is a deterrent to his point totals at times. Love him as a playmaker but damn sometimes he just needs to rip it on net when hes got a D screening the goalie in front of him. His shot is pretty good and weve seen it unleashed a few times. But he just needs to improve getting it off quicker + having the willingness to shoot more

McDavid grew up never having to shoot from outside tho, he could always just burn D and get in close. So his shot is like 2 years behind and one that catches up.... oh boy. Dude got 29 goals this year, 40 is not out of the picture soon

Yeah I agree he just needs to get the shot off a bit quicker, I think that's mainly what he's working on. A little more velocity and a bit better accuracy wouldn't hurt of course either. If he comes into next year with a better shot ... look out. McDavid had 30 this year by the way (and two more taken away by like a tenth of a second, so some bad luck there).
 

McGoMcD

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He just needs to shoot more. His over tendancy to pass is a deterrent to his point totals at times. Love him as a playmaker but damn sometimes he just needs to rip it on net when hes got a D screening the goalie in front of him. His shot is pretty good and weve seen it unleashed a few times. But he just needs to improve getting it off quicker + having the willingness to shoot more

McDavid grew up never having to shoot from outside tho, he could always just burn D and get in close. So his shot is like 2 years behind and one that catches up.... oh boy. Dude got 29 goals this year, 40 is not out of the picture soon

Interesting conversation really, but I am not so sold this is actually true. It's a dynamic, people always see him with great shot lanes and he passes then they think he should shoot. But the reason he has such great shooting lanes is the defence needs to really guard passing lanes. Basically if he shoots more people will play him more for the shot, then he has less space. Him making passes and doing it deadly puts the defence in a position that they need to give him space, which just works in his favor. Any way, I am not sold he needs to shoot so much more. I could see it actually reducing his point totals.
 

Aceboogie

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Aug 25, 2012
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Interesting conversation really, but I am not so sold this is actually true. It's a dynamic, people always see him with great shot lanes and he passes then they think he should shoot. But the reason he has such great shooting lanes is the defence needs to really guard passing lanes. Basically if he shoots more people will play him more for the shot, then he has less space. Him making passes and doing it deadly puts the defence in a position that they need to give him space, which just works in his favor. Any way, I am not sold he needs to shoot so much more. I could see it actually reducing his point totals.

I can see where you're coming from. But I do think there are plays where Mcdavid passes up an OBVIOUS shot with a high chance of a goal and those are the plays he should shoot on more. He doesnt need to become an Ovechkin or anything and shoot at everything but when he gets the puck on a 2 on 1 or similar I think he needs to shoot it more to create that danger

Some quick examples are:



and (at 3:56)


This is where Mcdavid gets the pass and in a shooting position. He defers to LD

SryuKG6.png


Now maybe these are poor examples because both ended up in goals, but on both he passed up prime scoring chances. So these are the times im talking about. They probably arise once every 2/3 games he passes up a prime chance, but if takes the shot these times im guessing hed add 5/10 more goals. In both of these examples we were pretty luck the rebound came out to a good spot and we capitalized. But if that type of luck isnt there next year, these could have meerily been close chances
 

McGoMcD

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I can see where you're coming from. But I do think there are plays where Mcdavid passes up an OBVIOUS shot with a high chance of a goal and those are the plays he should shoot on more. He doesnt need to become an Ovechkin or anything and shoot at everything but when he gets the puck on a 2 on 1 or similar I think he needs to shoot it more to create that danger

Some quick examples are:



and (at 3:56)


Now maybe these are poor examples because both ended up in goals, but on both he passed up prime scoring chances. So these are the times im talking about. They probably arise once every 2/3 games he passes up a prime chance, but if takes the shot these times im guessing hed add 5/10 more goals. In both of these examples we were pretty luck the rebound came out to a good spot and we capitalized. But if that type of luck isnt there next year, these could have meerily been close chances


True, I can't argue with any of your examples. I guess the 2nd point to is just mental. It is hard to know how McDavid will deal with being told to shoot more. In other words it might sort of mess up his natural instincts. Even though it seems obvious to shoot more, maybe mentally being a passer first just gives him the most comfort in his game. Basically you never want to mess with some one mentally too much, I mean I wouldn't think McD would not be able to take it. Just sometimes it is actually better to do something worse that you are comfortable with than try something better but messes up your sort of mentality of how you like to play. Funny you mention OV but I recall some announcer saying that he went through a slump as people were telling him to pass more, he over shot. Then it just sort of messed him up so he went back to just shooting always, it was just better for him in terms of his overall focus.
 

Aceboogie

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Aug 25, 2012
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True, I can't argue with any of your examples. I guess the 2nd point to is just mental. It is hard to know how McDavid will deal with being told to shoot more. In other words it might sort of mess up his natural instincts. Even though it seems obvious to shoot more, maybe mentally being a passer first just gives him the most comfort in his game. Basically you never want to mess with some one mentally too much, I mean I wouldn't think McD would not be able to take it. Just sometimes it is actually better to do something worse that you are comfortable with than try something better but messes up your sort of mentality of how you like to play. Funny you mention OV but I recall some announcer saying that he went through a slump as people were telling him to pass more, he over shot. Then it just sort of messed him up so he went back to just shooting always, it was just better for him in terms of his overall focus.

Very true. Look at Getzlaf, he has a near elite shot but hes still a passer who needs to shoot more. Hes been in the league forever and excelled so its worked for him to pass more

In the end, McDavid got to the NHL and scored 100 points doing what hes wants. Hard to say whats best for him as a fan, its more or less hope on my part. Bu tif he wants to continue as is and thats whats best, im 100% fine with that
 

McGoMcD

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Aug 14, 2005
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Very true. Look at Getzlaf, he has a near elite shot but hes still a passer who needs to shoot more. Hes been in the league forever and excelled so its worked for him to pass more

In the end, McDavid got to the NHL and scored 100 points doing what hes wants. Hard to say whats best for him as a fan, its more or less hope on my part. Bu tif he wants to continue as is and thats whats best, im 100% fine with that

Exactly, for some reason I think of hitting in baseball. All the time some one points out once aspect of a players swing and says it isn't optimal. So they try to make it better but what they don't really see is that part is related to the other parts that make the player so good. Basically you change one thing you might throw everything off. Personally if I am McDavid's coach I don't tell him to shoot more, I just tell him to trust his instincts. He got so far doing that, I don't want to change him at all.
 

Lay Z Boy GM

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Sep 8, 2010
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I'm glad he's expanding his toolbox but every time I get upset at McDavid for not shooting he'll make a godly pass that nobody saw coming.

He's no Hemsky in that regard, he'll find the pass. They being said he still scored 30.

I'm going to make a wild prediction and say McDavid scores 120 points.
 

McFlyingV

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Feb 22, 2013
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Edmonton, Alberta
Bumping this because I feel this board focuses a little too much on bashing players and I wanted to kind of address what type of season we might realistically see out of McDavid.

So I'm going to chuck out some stats here.

In McDavid's rookie season he had an OISH% of 10.99% and recorded points on 81.4% of the goals that were scored while he was on the ice. In his sophomore season he had an OISH% of 12.54% and recorded points on 75.8% of the goals scored while he was on the ice. This season McDavid has an OISH% of 8.64% and has recorded points on 84.2% of the goals scored when he's on the ice. Elite players generally have OISH%'s of 10-12% and sometimes as high as 13-13.5%, and we all know McDavid is on the top end of the elite players in this league.

Just looking at this I think we can expect McDavid's OISH% to normalize somewhere around 12%, and his involvement in goals scored while he's on the ice at around 80%. At the current moment McDavid has been on the ice for 220 shots for. With a 3.5% bump in OISH% we're looking at another 8 goals scored while he's on the ice for a total of 27 on the season. If we normalize his involvement on goals scored to ~80% we'd expect him to have almost 22 points under sustainable conditions. That would equate to 150 points over 82 games.

Now the point of my post is not to say that McDavid is going to score 150 points because I don't think he will, as I also expect his TOI to drop off a little bit as the year progresses, perhaps by 1 minute per game. The point of my post is that McDavid is on pace for 109 points while having an unsustainably low OISH%. Factor in the realistic possibility that he will play the entire season with Draisaitl as opposed to only playing ~50 games with him last season and I think its entirely possible that he could hit or exceed 110 points this year.

This kid is damn special.
 
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Laineux

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Bumping this because I feel this board focuses a little too much on bashing players and I wanted to kind of address what type of season we might realistically see out of McDavid.
Most of his unsustainable numbers are from low powerplay shooting percentage. But when you think about it, if they had scored on the powerplay, that would lower the shot totals and expected goals for totals.

That said, his xgf/60 at ES is way up from last year. He's ppg at ES and his puck luck has been average at best. Last year he had 70 ES points and he's on pace to hit 82 now. He can realistically hit 80+ ES points and once the powerplay production normalizes, especially with powerplays up now, he'll be good for 30+ powerplay points as well.

Breaking 110 points is very realistic. Even more if the bounces are there.

Looking at advanced stats from corsica, out of all players who are on ridiculous paces right now, Connor McDavid is the only one with sustainable underlying numbers.
 
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McFlyingV

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Most of his unsustainable numbers are from low powerplay shooting percentage. But when you think about it, if they had scored on the powerplay, that would lower the shot totals and expected goals for totals.

That said, his xgf/60 at ES is way up from last year. He's ppg at ES and his puck luck has been average at best. Last year he had 70 ES points and he's on pace to hit 82 now. He can realistically hit 80+ ES points and once the powerplay production normalizes, especially with powerplays up now, he'll be good for 30+ powerplay points as well.

Breaking 110 points is very realistic. Even more if the bounces are there.

Looking at advanced stats from corsica, out of all players who are on ridiculous paces right now, Connor McDavid is the only one with sustainable underlying numbers.
Yup couldn't agree more. The majority of players ahead of him in scoring right now do not have sustainable numbers, even just based on OISH%.

You're right though about the PP point, although he's due for a bump in 5 on 5 OISH% as well as he's only at 8.5% and was 10.55% last year and 10.17% the year before. He's destined to be a 10%+ 5 on 5 OISH% player for much of his career imo. The fact that he's on a higher pace than last year despite his OISH%'s taking a hit is very encouraging that he's capable of producing more than last year.
 

VainGretzky

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Kucherov will give him a run for his money this year for the ArtRoss TB have 2 incredible puck movers on the back end in Hedman and Sergachev
 

Laineux

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Yeah I think Kucherov is his toughest competition. He's not going to shoot at 24%, obviously, but I see him having a very solid chance to break 100 points.
 
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