Player Discussion Connor McDavid Part VI: Hart, Ross and Lindsay Winner

[Fourier]

Who has the highest Oilers point total outside of Gretz? Mess? Kurri? Coffey? Hopefully Connor can at least top that mark in his career.

Over a career it is Kurri with 1043. Gretz is first at 1669. If McDavid stays healthy and plays out his whole contract he probably beats Kurri by the end of that deal. If he stays healthy and plays his whole career in Edmonton he may well pass Gretz.

 

[McJadeddog]

Over a career it is Kurri with 1043. Gretz is first at 1669. If McDavid stays healthy and plays out his whole contract he probably beats Kurri by the end of that deal. If he stays healthy and plays his whole career in Edmonton he may well pass Gretz.

1669 would be quite the career for McDavid. He has 317 points in 248 GP so far, for a PPG of 1.28. If he plays another 14 years, retiring at age 36, he would need 1352 points in the next 1190 GP (42 GP remaining this year + 1148 GP over the next 14 years). This would be a PPG of 1.13. That would mean he would need to actually *increase* his scoring rate for the next few years likely, or have it stay the same at the very least, and then have only a very sleight reduction in his 30s. He would also have to stay perfectly healthy over his entire career. You could argue that he might play till he's 40, but 36 seems like a fair age for retirement, as is quite common.

I'm not saying he can't do it, if we ever got some secondary scoring, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a few 125-135 point seasons in his career. But anything above 1400 or so is going to be quite difficult to achieve.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

1669 would be quite the career for McDavid. He has 317 points in 248 GP so far, for a PPG of 1.28. If he plays another 14 years, retiring at age 36, he would need 1352 points in the next 1190 GP (42 GP remaining this year + 1148 GP over the next 14 years). This would be a PPG of 1.13. That would mean he would need to actually *increase* his scoring rate for the next few years likely, or have it stay the same at the very least, and then have only a very sleight reduction in his 30s. He would also have to stay perfectly healthy over his entire career. You could argue that he might play till he's 40, but 36 seems like a fair age for retirement, as is quite common.

I'm not saying he can't do it, if we ever got some secondary scoring, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a few 125-135 point seasons in his career. But anything above 1400 or so is going to be quite difficult to achieve.

Well I think Stauff posted it

McDavid thru 40 gp

2016-17 - 14-31-45
2017-18 - 14-31-45
2018-19 - 23-38-61

So I agree it would be quite a career, but it looks like he's starting to "pick it up" so to speak, which means we could see him put up even more points in the future.

Edit: that's a hell of a bump

 

[McBeastMode]

If Conner had the elite wingers and defense Gretzky had, He would be putting up some insane stats....

 

[Canada Drai]

Can't wait for him to add the Conn Smythe trophy to his cabinet this year!
Koskinen/Draisaitl might battle him for it though!

 

[Fourier]

If Conner had the elite wingers and defense Gretzky had, He would be putting up some insane stats....

Despite my feelings that McDavid is or at the very least will be the second best Oiler of all time what Gretzky accomplished was not just about the team he played for. He had 137 points as a rookie playing with no one nearly the calibre of Draisaitl. In fact, his first 200 point season was with Lumley and a second year Jari Kurri as his wingers. Coffey was in year two. So while I agree that adding even a young Paul Coffey to the present day Oilers would be a huge asset for McDavid this shows what an incredible and incomparable talent Gretzky was. That and the fact the times were different. But really none of this takes away from McDavid. Because of what he can do at such speed he is actually the single most purely exciting player I have ever seen live and that includes Gretzky.

 

[Fourier]

1669 would be quite the career for McDavid. He has 317 points in 248 GP so far, for a PPG of 1.28. If he plays another 14 years, retiring at age 36, he would need 1352 points in the next 1190 GP (42 GP remaining this year + 1148 GP over the next 14 years). This would be a PPG of 1.13. That would mean he would need to actually *increase* his scoring rate for the next few years likely, or have it stay the same at the very least, and then have only a very sleight reduction in his 30s. He would also have to stay perfectly healthy over his entire career. You could argue that he might play till he's 40, but 36 seems like a fair age for retirement, as is quite common.

I'm not saying he can't do it, if we ever got some secondary scoring, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a few 125-135 point seasons in his career. But anything above 1400 or so is going to be quite difficult to achieve.

The key was the assumption of staying healthy. I think the league could be moving into a phase where goal scoring is up a little. I could see him easily averaging 100-110 points a year for the next 10 years if he was healthy with only a few minor issues here and there. . The top end of that range would put him at 1400 by the time he turned 32. So lets say he has 1300 by this time ten years from now. At that point I would not bet against him.

 

[bone]

What's sad is that the scoring in the league this year is probably the highest it's been since the first lockout (or earlier), and we take this time to have virtually 0 offense outside of our top 3.

 

[MaxR11]

Well I think Stauff posted it

McDavid thru 40 gp

2016-17 - 14-31-45
2017-18 - 14-31-45
2018-19 - 23-38-61

So I agree it would be quite a career, but it looks like he's starting to "pick it up" so to speak, which means we could see him put up even more points in the future.

Edit: that's a hell of a bump

stats might be skewed this year.... either that or it's a trend upwards for all of the league going fwd. look at the pts kooch, rant, mckinnon, gaudreau etc are also putting up.

maybe the reduction in goalie equipment is really helping.

 

[Canada Drai]

What's sad is that the scoring in the league this year is probably the highest it's been since the first lockout (or earlier), and we take this time to have virtually 0 offense outside of our top 3.

I don't have any stats to back me up but I think that scoring is super top heavy for most teams this year.

 

[Fourier]

I don't have any stats to back me up but I think that scoring is super top heavy for most teams this year.

Here is your proof: This table shows what the first through 186th player had in points at this date over the last two years. By the time you are on average 3 players deep there is not much difference beyond that point.

Spot	2017	2018
1	56	65
10	44	50
20	38	45
31	36	42
62	30	35
93	26	28
124	24	24
155	21	21
186	19	19

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[space321]

Here is your proof: This table shows what the first through 186th player had in points at this date over the last two years. By the time you are on average 3 players deep there is not much difference beyond that point.

Spot	2017	2018
1	56	65
10	44	50
20	38	45
31	36	42
62	30	35
93	26	28
124	24	24
155	21	21
186	19	19

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So a low end top 6 player should have about 20 points by now.

looks at our roster

 

[VainGretzky]

I don't have any stats to back me up but I think that scoring is super top heavy for most teams this year.

It is

 

[Reindl87]

Hi guys, sorry It's slightly off Topic. But may I ask, is there a Website that shows the point production of each line combination? Or similar, a sise that shows how many Points a A got when being on the ice with Player B and so on?
Thanks for your help.

 

[Fourier]

Hi guys, sorry It's slightly off Topic. But may I ask, is there a Website that shows the point production of each line combination? Or similar, a sise that shows how many Points a A got when being on the ice with Player B and so on?
Thanks for your help.

Natural Stat Trick can show you how many points a player got while on the ice with another individual.

Natural Stat Trick

For example if you want to know how many goals and assists McDavid had with various players on the ice do the following:

1) Load Natural Stat Trick
2) From the Tab in the top left choose Individual in the Players drop down menu.
3) Click the [+] sign on the More Filters tab and then from the team menu choose Edmonton and hit submit.
4) Click on McDavid
5) In the drop down menu that says on-ice switch to individual and switch Player Summary to Teammates.

In the Players menu they have a tool called line tool. This will allow you to build a custom combination of players to get information about what happens when they are on the ice together.

If you want points from a line combination you can use Dobber's Frozen Tools

Home - Frozen Tools

Choose line production in the Lines tab then follow your nose.

 

[McJadeddog]

What's sad is that the scoring in the league this year is probably the highest it's been since the first lockout (or earlier), and we take this time to have virtually 0 offense outside of our top 3.

Yup. Look at Kucherov last night. 1g, 3a. Got assists on Point, Stamkos, and McDonagh goal. You could argue that Stamkos is roughly equivalent of Drai. But Point >> RNH and McDonagh and Hedmen >>>>>>>> literally any Oilers dman. Tampa has 3 players inside the top-20 in scoring, and 2 dman on pace for around 50-65 points. The surrounding cast that McDavid has is putrid, outside of Drai and RNH (sometimes).

 

[bone]

I don't have any stats to back me up but I think that scoring is super top heavy for most teams this year.

True, but outside Edmonton's top 3 point producers, we are so far behind it is ridiculous. Even Chiasson who has been a pleasant surprise as our 4th top producer, is 139th in Pts/G and 175th in overall points (i.e. there is an average of 4.4 players per team with a great Pts/G average and 5.6 players per team with more points)

And it gets significantly worse after that looking at our forwards. Our 5th best forward Jujhar is tied for 226-240th for points amongst forwards meaning the rest of the league has about 7.5 players that produce equal to or better than our 5th forward. Our 6th is Milan who is tied for 305th-327th, meaning each team has an average of about 10 players who produce equal to or better than our 6th forward.

Assuming 12 forwards per team and 31 teams there are 372 forward spot per game league wide. On a points per game basis, the Oilers only have 7 forwards on the current roster in the top 372 forward spots. This means on any given night the Oilers are dressing at least 5 forwards who are producing offense at a less than an NHL replacement level player. They had two more in the top 372 earlier that were traded away this season in Caggiula and Strome.

When excluding players with less than 20 games played in the NHL this season, Wednesday's lineup featured 6 of the bottom 100 forward point producers per game (out of 397) and this number excluded Gambardella (less than 6 games played).

Now for offense from our defense. Our top producing defenseman is tied for 36th-39th in the league. Our second is 50-56th (granted less games played). The offense from defense 3-6 is about on par. Overall though, not that terrible but not good enough.

The issue with the team is offense. The defense has needed help, but not as much as offense which make Caggiula (even though I wasn't much of a fan) for Manning is such a head shaker. As this league is going more offensive right now, this is another case of Chiarelli missing where the game is going and looking at the wrong player type and then overpaying for it.

 

[Reindl87]

Natural Stat Trick can show you how many points a player got while on the ice with another individual.

Natural Stat Trick

For example if you want to know how many goals and assists McDavid had with various players on the ice do the following:

1) Load Natural Stat Trick
2) From the Tab in the top left choose Individual in the Players drop down menu.
3) Click the [+] sign on the More Filters tab and then from the team menu choose Edmonton and hit submit.
4) Click on McDavid
5) In the drop down menu that says on-ice switch to individual and switch Player Summary to Teammates.

In the Players menu they have a tool called line tool. This will allow you to build a custom combination of players to get information about what happens when they are on the ice together.

If you want points from a line combination you can use Dobber's Frozen Tools

Home - Frozen Tools

Choose line production in the Lines tab then follow your nose.

Thanks a lot!!!!!!

 

[StevenF1919]

Trade him. It's a travesty that a player of his calibre is stuck in an org like this.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I can already see we are going to have the argument like we did last season about McDavid should win the Hart trophy--my response is still the same


Oilers suck with him but we would just suck more without him

 

[talitintti]

And so with the game winning goal against Anaheim McDavid officially breaks Gretzky's record.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Can someone please tell me which site has these numbers?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Can someone please tell me which site has these numbers?

It's pretty sad that we have to continuously cripple our depth by sticking multiple centers together.

 

[Zaddy]

nvm