Player Discussion Connor McDavid Part VI: Hart, Ross and Lindsay Winner

[Spawn]

I wouldn't say he can't hit 50 goals. Far from it.

But I'd also recognize that he had a stretch where he was scoring at a like... a 70+ goal pace for 2 months. Everything was going in for him. It was likely an unrepeatable stretch. He shot at 15% which is probably a bit high.

I'd be happy with 40 again. And anything over 100 points.

 

[Wewillrise]

I honestly believe he will win the Richard soon. This last season he realized he can score at will. It’s going to be deadly, he has a better chance at 50-50 than OVI IMO. Not that he will but if any player can it’s him.

 

[Skolman]

If he's healthy next season he breaks 50 goals.

I agree.

50-70 is realistic imo

 

[McShogun99]

That’s the thing with generational players, when they set a goal they reach it. Crosby wanted to be a better goal scorer and he went out and won the Richard. Mcdavid will probably win a couple Richards by the time his career is over.

 

[Aerchon]

He really wasn't playing great to start the year. Really was playing one dimensional hockey and relatively speaking for him not that well. His second half was awesome tho and by the end overall exceeded my expectations.

Its extremely hard to imagine him ever truly putting it altogether in one season. If he ever does 120+ points is certainly possible.

 

[oobga]

Some stats I saw hinted at, but decided to look at myself.

First 41 games for McDavid last year 5v5:

CF% 55.93
HDCF% 57.4%
HDCF/60: 16.1
HDCA/60: 11.9
GF% 54.7%

Last 41 games 5v5:

CF% 49.0%
HDCF% 53.4%
HDCF/60: 15.9
HDCA/60: 14.1
GF% 57.5%

What really seemed to change for him was finally getting some breaks. Also just doing more himself and not deferring to teammates as much, finding that right balance between shooting and passing.

I don't think his defensive game was really that bad in the start of the year. Just seemed that way because we didn't have a goalie that could stop a beachball for the first couple months of the season. Everything looks bad when damn near every good opportunity against ends up in your net, and there is really no way for a team to be able to be good or gain momentum in a season when that is happening. Just ask many previous years of Jets teams where goaltending was hiding a pretty solid lineup that just could never get an ounce of traction.

 

[780il]

There's no doubt in my mind that by the time Mcdavid hangs em up, he'll have a 65 goal, 85 assist, 150 point season. If we're being completely honest be could hit 80 goals if he goes supernova over a full season.

 

[Bank Shot]

I wouldn't say he can't hit 50 goals. Far from it.

But I'd also recognize that he had a stretch where he was scoring at a like... a 70+ goal pace for 2 months. Everything was going in for him. It was likely an unrepeatable stretch. He shot at 15% which is probably a bit high.

I'd be happy with 40 again. And anything over 100 points.

Guys like Malkin, Kucherov, and Crosby all have career shooting percentages in the 14% range, which is where McDavid is currently at as well.

So while 15% might be high, there is a chance that's just normal variance for a guy of McDavid's calibre and not an outlier season.

The thing to watch is that he started shooting the puck more as the season went on.
He had one 6+ shot game through Jan.6
Jan. 7 to the end of the year he had 8 games with 6+ shots.
He had I think 156 shots over his last 40 games.
So we could be looking at Mcdavid having 300+ shots next year.
If that's the case He gonna score alotta goals.

 

[Laineux]

15% isnt't a high shooting percentage for a player who gets as many high danger looks as McDavid does. His ixgf in all situations was 36.46 (3rd highest in the league) so he was a slightly above league average finisher last year.

Anyways, his even strength production of 84 points was sustainable so I expect that his production jumps to 115-125 points next year based on how the powerplay works.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I swapping in a proper playmaker and RNH also made a massive difference for McDavid.

Nuge is very much a "for the greater good", he excels at reading off his linemates and doing the little things to make them more effective. Playing with a guy like McDavid, he can read the give and go better than anyone.

By contrast, Draisaitl will try and take over the game. This worked well with McDavid because their styles still mesh, which (along with Maroon also opening up ice) made it near impossible to cover both at the same time.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I want to see a top line of:

RNH - McDavid - Draisaitl
(aka - the most expensive line in hockey).

They'll likely be able to outscore our mistakes if our depth can hold the fort for 35mins a night.

 

[PeakMcOil]

Has anyone come across a breakdown of the voting for the Lindsay? Last year I seem to remember Connor getting almost 90% of the 1st place votes, but can't find anything this year?

 

[shoop]

I want to see a top line of:

RNH - McDavid - Draisaitl
(aka - the most expensive line in hockey).

They'll likely be able to outscore our mistakes if our depth can hold the fort for 35mins a night.

Where's the depth? 2C/3C/4C of Strome/Brodziak/Khaira? All three would be playing a line above their true ability.

 

[nightfighter]

This graphic is from a TSN article talking about secondary assists and how noisy they are when determining total points of a player. Article was primarily talking about the risks of signing free agents with high secondary assist %, but I couldn't help but see Mcdavid's dominance in this area as well.

He has a ridiculous 88% share of team points, and his 63.8% primary points dwarfs everyone else on this list. Definitely no secondary Sidney here (not saying I ever agreed with that argument against Crosby). Even though his 25% secondary assists are considered "high" (average is supposedly 15%) I don't expect we'll see any drop off in this area unless Oilers get some more primary scoring help.

On the flip side, there was a chart for players with really low secondary assist numbers and Puljujarvi was 2nd on that list with a basement dwelling 3.3%. So maybe an uptick in points is coming for him next season?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Where's the depth? 2C/3C/4C of Strome/Brodziak/Khaira? All three would be playing a line above their true ability.

Its not something that would be ideal over the long term, but it is something I would be willing to try for a period here and there. If only it because throws a wrench into opposition game plans.

RNH-McDavid-Draisaitl
Lucic-Strome-Kassian
Rieder-Brodziak-Puljujarvi
Caggiula-Khaira-Aberg

All the other lines should be able to hold their own. I'm happy enough with the 4th line, and Rieder-Brodziak actually gives you a defensive duo for when the situation calls for it.

The second line isn't ideal, but it should be able to cycle, helping to build some momentum and wear down defences (which provides a nice set up for the top line).

As said, you can't do this consistantly as it becomes too easy to game plan against; but as an ajustment for those "going into the 3rd period down by one or two" situations, I like it.

 

[McNuge]

Its not something that would be ideal over the long term, but it is something I would be willing to try for a period here and there. If only it because throws a wrench into opposition game plans.

RNH-McDavid-Draisaitl
Lucic-Strome-Kassian
Rieder-Brodziak-Puljujarvi
Caggiula-Khaira-Aberg

All the other lines should be able to hold their own. I'm happy enough with the 4th line, and Rieder-Brodziak actually gives you a defensive duo for when the situation calls for it.

The second line isn't ideal, but it should be able to cycle, helping to build some momentum and wear down defences (which provides a nice set up for the top line).

As said, you can't do this consistantly as it becomes too easy to game plan against; but as an ajustment for those "going into the 3rd period down by one or two" situations, I like it.

It is not a bad idea at all RNH and Drai are both incredibly smart players without the puck, but I agree it would only really work in a situation where you are down a goal or 2 in the third. No way the other 3 lines don't get shit on (mainly the second line). The 3rd and 4th actually don't look that bad though.

 

[Laineux]

I want to see a top line of:

RNH - McDavid - Draisaitl
(aka - the most expensive line in hockey).

They'll likely be able to outscore our mistakes if our depth can hold the fort for 35mins a night.

This is a waste of talent.

McDavid has been on ice for most 5vs5 goals for in two consecutive seasons.

McDavid's line will be the best offensive line in the league regardless. Stacking it up with talent isn't the way to succeed even if it might make McDavid's statline more sexy. Draisaitl needs to drive his own line as he's arguably the only other guy in the team capable of doing it.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

This is a waste of talent.

McDavid has been on ice for most 5vs5 goals for in two consecutive seasons.

McDavid's line will be the best offensive line in the league regardless. Stacking it up with talent isn't the way to succeed even if it might make McDavid's statline more sexy. Draisaitl needs to drive his own line as he's arguably the only other guy in the team capable of doing it.

Imagine scoring the most by such a wide margin, that it spots the remaining lines a 2+ goal lead each game. Mucking and grinding heavy shutdown trap-hockey.



Be way more fun to watch!

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Its not something that would be ideal over the long term, but it is something I would be willing to try for a period here and there. If only it because throws a wrench into opposition game plans.

RNH-McDavid-Draisaitl
Lucic-Strome-Kassian
Rieder-Brodziak-Puljujarvi
Caggiula-Khaira-Aberg

All the other lines should be able to hold their own. I'm happy enough with the 4th line, and Rieder-Brodziak actually gives you a defensive duo for when the situation calls for it.

The second line isn't ideal, but it should be able to cycle, helping to build some momentum and wear down defences (which provides a nice set up for the top line).

As said, you can't do this consistantly as it becomes too easy to game plan against; but as an ajustment for those "going into the 3rd period down by one or two" situations, I like it.

That's crazy, but I, almost, kind of love it. You would basically play them 25-30 mins a game

 

[Aceboogie]

This graphic is from a TSN article talking about secondary assists and how noisy they are when determining total points of a player. Article was primarily talking about the risks of signing free agents with high secondary assist %, but I couldn't help but see Mcdavid's dominance in this area as well.

He has a ridiculous 88% share of team points, and his 63.8% primary points dwarfs everyone else on this list. Definitely no secondary Sidney here (not saying I ever agreed with that argument against Crosby). Even though his 25% secondary assists are considered "high" (average is supposedly 15%) I don't expect we'll see any drop off in this area unless Oilers get some more primary scoring help.

On the flip side, there was a chart for players with really low secondary assist numbers and Puljujarvi was 2nd on that list with a basement dwelling 3.3%. So maybe an uptick in points is coming for him next season?

Love that TSN is doing this. I hope more people/media start to use primary points more often when discussing players. Not that secondary assists arent valuable, but they arent as impactful as goals or 1st assists.

 

[Aceboogie]

I can see McDavid hitting 55 goals soon. He is realizing he has the ability to do it and finally being selfish enough to shoot first more often

 

[Hockeyholic]

He really wasn't playing great to start the year. Really was playing one dimensional hockey and relatively speaking for him not that well. His second half was awesome tho and by the end overall exceeded my expectations.

Its extremely hard to imagine him ever truly putting it altogether in one season. If he ever does 120+ points is certainly possible.

Why? I am convinced if he shoots more, he could be a 50-60 goal scorer.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I can see McDavid hitting 55 goals soon. He is realizing he has the ability to do it and finally being selfish enough to shoot first more often

It’s amazing what happens when he has to try and get lucic a goal, I feel like that caused him to just try to score himself and he gained confidence when it started going in.

He has a good shot and release on his snap shot

 

[McJadeddog]

He really wasn't playing great to start the year. Really was playing one dimensional hockey and relatively speaking for him not that well. His second half was awesome tho and by the end overall exceeded my expectations.

Its extremely hard to imagine him ever truly putting it altogether in one season. If he ever does 120+ points is certainly possible.

Yeah, I really think he could have hit 120 last year if it wasn't for those sicknesses in the early season. Losing that amount of weight and strength must have been exceptionally difficult to work through. All that and he still got 108 points. Crazy stuff.

 

[Still DRAI]

Yeah, I really think he could have hit 120 last year if it wasn't for those sicknesses in the early season. Losing that amount of weight and strength must have been exceptionally difficult to work through. All that and he still got 108 points. Crazy stuff.

The even crazier thing is that the average top-15 point scorer had ~34 points on the power play, where McDavid had 20. It's likely that if we had a functional powerplay he already would have broken 120 points last season - I have no doubts that at his peak, McDavid will pass 130 in a season, and I honestly don't think 140 would be out of his reach.