Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

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tbcwpg

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Stats are a fools game when it comes to goalies, since almost all goalie stats are team stats (even save percentages, which don't account for quality shots, screens, rebounds, cleared rebounds, easy shots, etc, or most importantly, clutch play. Hellebuyck hasn't been consistently "clutch" in a couple of seasons. Last night he played absolutely excellent. Now, let's see him do that more consistently.

I understand that he hasn't replicated his Vezina nominated form but he's been the better of the Jets goalies for a few months now, going back to last year. A goalie who's save percentage increases as the team in front of him gets worse is even more telling to me that he's a solid goalie who had a bad game here and then.

He also didn't come out after yesterday and say that he felt great, he knew he'd be better, etc etc, but called it a team win. I think he'll be fine. I'm not suggesting a .925 this year, I think he ends the year between .917 and .921.
 

AlphaLackey

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or most importantly, clutch play. Hellebuyck hasn't been consistently "clutch" in a couple of seasons. Last night he played absolutely excellent. Now, let's see him do that more consistently.

Clutch play is the biggest of all the fool's games, for goalies and skaters alike. Trying to find "clutch players" is as worthless as trying to find red or black "hot streaks" in roulette and using them to guide your next bet.

And for the record, save percent is far more a personal stat than you give it credit for, as goaltender save percent tends to show little-to-no effect when goalies change teams, when using the latter to predict their next year's save percent rather than "their prior years' save percent and factoring in standard age growth/atrophy"
 

DannyGallivan

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Clutch play is the biggest of all the fool's games, for goalies and skaters alike. Trying to find "clutch players" is as worthless as trying to find red or black "hot streaks" in roulette and using them to guide your next bet.
Really? It really isn't difficult to identify clutch players throughout history, and I'm not even talking about being the "clutchiest" player, just a guy who doesn't deflate his team at the worst possible time.

Save percentage has its place, and may be the "best" goalie stat. But like all goalie stats, they need to be added to an overall picture which includes the infamous "eye test". Save percentage by itself doesn't tell enough of a story.
 

AlphaLackey

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Really? It really isn't difficult to identify clutch players throughout history, and I'm not even talking about being the "clutchiest" player, just a guy who doesn't deflate his team at the worst possible time.

It isn't difficult to identify which player WAS clutch over the past number of games. Just like it's not difficult to identify which color WAS hot over the past number of spins. But however you quantify "clutch" play, I promise you it will show virtually no correlation year-over-year. Players on the ice in key situations will tend to score goals in key situations and tend to have their mistakes occur in key situations. And when you have goalies who are on the ice all game, you see nothing but rear-view streaks.
 

DannyGallivan

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It isn't difficult to identify which player WAS clutch over the past number of games. Just like it's not difficult to identify which color WAS hot over the past number of spins. But however you quantify "clutch" play, I promise you it will show virtually no correlation year-over-year. Players on the ice in key situations will tend to score goals in key situations and tend to have their mistakes occur in key situations. And when you have goalies who are on the ice all game, you see nothing but rear-view streaks.
Clutch: Roy in the 93 playoffs. How many
Not clutch: Andrei Vasilevskiy (hate his name by the way... can't memorize the correct spelling) last year. He was great until it counted the most. Yeah, his stats for the year were great, but when they counted the most...
 

kylbaz

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Funny how some posters wrote off Hellebuyck after one game. Time to step off the ledge. No idea if Helle can weather the storm, and up his game to counter the depleted blue-line, but he certainly has earned a chance to prove it.

Funny how some posters think Helle is 'back' after one good game. Time to get back on the ledge. Helle has been mediocre for two years now, not sure what you are talking about. If he can consistently play like he did last game I will gladly put my foot in my mouth.
 
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Ducky10

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Clutch: Roy in the 93 playoffs. How many
Not clutch: Andrei Vasilevskiy (hate his name by the way... can't memorize the correct spelling) last year. He was great until it counted the most. Yeah, his stats for the year were great, but when they counted the most...
Roy was always good, just because you remember certain playoff moments and romanticize them doesn't make him even "more good".

That's a hell of sample size you have on Vasilevskiy there. In 2016 he had a playoff SV% of .925 and in 2017 it was .918. Was he clutch then? Or did he just play better? Which are the clutch moments and which aren't? Who decides?

Clutchiness is a myth, a romantic notion that your mind creates, they are random situations, not a skill.

If I had to choose between Patrick Roy and Dominek Hasek to stop a breakaway to win the Stanley Cup, I'd take Hasek everyday and twice on Sundays, but not because he's "clutch".
 

DannyGallivan

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Roy was always good, just because you remember certain playoff moments and romanticize them doesn't make him even "more good".

That's a hell of sample size you have on Vasilevskiy there. In 2016 he had a playoff SV% of .925 and in 2017 it was .918. Was he clutch then? Or did he just play better? Which are the clutch moments and which aren't? Who decides?

Clutchiness is a myth, a romantic notion that your mind creates, they are random situations, not a skill.

If I had to choose between Patrick Roy and Dominek Hasek to stop a breakaway to win the Stanley Cup, I'd take Hasek everyday and twice on Sundays, but not because he's "clutch".
"Clutchiness is a myth..."

Yeahhhh, okay, if you say so.

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DannyGallivan

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Billy Smith was simply a great player on a great team. Which of his 4 Stanley Cups were most clutch? What happened in '84? Did he forget how to be clutch? Was someone more clutch than him?
Great player in general or great playoff performer?
Do you have to have a 100 per cent winning percentage to be considered clutch? I think four straight Cups is pretty good.
 

tbcwpg

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Funny how some posters think Helle is 'back' after one good game. Time to get back on the ledge. Helle has been mediocre for two years now, not sure what you are talking about. If he can consistently play like he did last game I will gladly put my foot in my mouth.

This is easily proven to be false. He was mediocre for four months at the end of 2018. They don't nominate mediocre goalies for the Vezina.
 

Ducky10

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Great player in general or great playoff performer?
Do you have to have a 100 per cent winning percentage to be considered clutch? I think four straight Cups is pretty good.
Clutch isn't a skill it's a situation. 4 straight Cups isn't just good, it's very good. Like I said he was a very good player. He didn't rely on some magical ability to be clutch in some random moment, he just relied on being consistently very f***ing good.
 

DannyGallivan

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Clutch isn't a skill it's a situation. 4 straight Cups isn't just good, it's very good. Like I said he was a very good player. He didn't rely on some magical ability to be clutch in some random moment, he just relied on being consistently very ****ing good.
If clutch is a myth, then is choking a myth too?
 

NotCommitted

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Even when Hellebuyck is good, he doesn't particularly look so. So when he is bad, he looks really bad. He doesn't really have the acrobatic big saves in him, so when his fundamentals are lacking, he just looks slow, clumsy and downright bad. When he plays well, he's super calm and seemingly doesn't have to do much.

I'm not 100% sold on him, but he should be good enough. I think he should be a bit faster and agile to really reach a top goalie status in this league, but I don't think he is a problem. He seems to play better when he has some competition for the job, at least that's my impression. For 17-18 he started as the young goalie behind Mason, who I guess was expected to be the starter.

18-19 he was bad for a stretch, then he was good for a stretch and then he was OK in the playoffs. He gave up some goals were making a save would've been big, but on the other hand overall it could be argued he was more consistent of the two goalies in that series and Jets lost for reasons outside his control.

I do think he was overplayed last season when he was struggling and Brossoit was doing well. Nothing wrong with riding the hotter hand for a bit, it's good for the team's chances and also lessens the workload of the starter. Seemed to work pretty well in Boston last season.
 
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puck stoppa

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Even when Hellebuyck is good, he doesn't particularly look so. So when he is bad, he looks really bad. He doesn't really have the acrobatic big saves in him, so when his fundamentals are lacking, he just looks slow, clumsy and downright bad. When he plays well, he's super calm and seemingly doesn't have to do much.

I'm not 100% sold on him, but he should be good enough. I think he should be a bit faster and agile to really reach a top goalie status in this league, but I don't think he is a problem. He seems to play better when he has some competition for the job, at least that's my impression. For 17-18 he started as the young goalie behind Mason, who I guess was expected to be the starter.

18-19 he was bad for a stretch, then he was good for a stretch and then he was OK in the playoffs. He gave up some goals were making a save would've been big, but on the other hand overall it could be argued he was more consistent of the two goalies in that series and Jets lost for reasons outside his control.

I do think he was overplayed last season when he was struggling and Brossoit was doing well. Nothing wrong with riding the hotter hand for a bit, it's good for the team's chances and also lessens the workload of the starter. Seemed to work pretty well in Boston last season.
Read the first line and don’t agree, and stopped there.
 
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