Player Discussion Connor Brown (C) - Update: Signs 3 year, $10.8M deal

[SENSible67]

Money going into the owners pockets that isn’t counted as HRR

My mistake. I guess we'll see if the Cap goes up much. I hope you're right.

 

[Micklebot]

My mistake. I guess we'll see if the Cap goes up much. I hope you're right.

Not sure what this has to do with Brown, but I wouldn't expect expansion to have a large impact on the cap right away. I don't believe the VGK expansion did, and they have been as successfull as you can hope for. Expansions impact will be longer term, perhaps seen in the next national broadcast rights negotiation.

On the topic of Connor Brown, he kind of reminds me of MacArthur; blue collar player with a bit of skill that can play up and down the lineup. Dorion did good on this trade; I wasn't a fan of Zaitsev but he's been fine in his role. Still don't like the term he has but we'll cross that bridge if his play drops off because as of right now it isn't an issue.

I wouldn't mind keeping C.Brown around, but at the same time, we might be able to maximize the return by flipping him this deadline. If Logan Brown works out as a top 6 center and we draft a center (one of Byfield, Lundell or Perfetti) we could be in a position where moving Norris and White to RW seems inevitable particularly if one of Pageau or Tierney gets re-signed.

Lots of options going forward, we just got to pick the right one because we can't keep everyone.

 

[Micklebot]

Ha ! How many cup contenders are begging to add Connor Brown to their third line to secure their playoff goal? The guy works hard but the idea that he is an excellent two way player is exaggerated.

Excellent third line players are all over trade speculation. Pager is an excellent third line player.

Add Balcers, Batherson, Norris, Formenton and a 2020 1RD pick and it is getting hard to justify Brown into the top 9.

Pageau is all over trade speculation because he is a UFA on a team that might not be able to re-sign him. Brown is under contract and not on the market so there is little point of speculating about a trade.

If Brown were a UFA, he too would have trade speculation surrounding him even if he is not as good of a piece as Pageau.

 

[Sweatred]

Pageau is all over trade speculation because he is a UFA on a team that might not be able to re-sign him. Brown is under contract and not on the market so there is little point of speculating about a trade.

If Brown were a UFA, he too would have trade speculation surrounding him even if he is not as good of a piece as Pageau.

If Brown were an excellent third line player teams would easily add him to a lineup. The Sens could easily swap his $2 cap hit for a plug and a top pick or prospect. The reality is he just isn’t that attractive.

He is useful...deserves to be in the league, but not an excellent player on the third line (my original point).

 

[GCK]

If Brown were an excellent third line player teams would easily add him to a lineup. The Sens could easily swap his $2 cap hit for a plug and a top pick or prospect. The reality is he just isn’t that attractive.

He is useful...deserves to be in the league, but not an excellent player on the third line (my original point).

I honestly can’t figure out what sweatred sees as the flaws in Browns game. He is a prototypical 3rd liner. Proficient on the PK, sensational at puck retrieval, skates well, uses his body, scores a little and NEVER takes a shift off. Guy literally makes skill players better.

 

[SpezDispenser]

If Brown were an excellent third line player teams would easily add him to a lineup. The Sens could easily swap his $2 cap hit for a plug and a top pick or prospect. The reality is he just isn’t that attractive.

He is useful...deserves to be in the league, but not an excellent player on the third line (my original point).

Dont agree. The sens have no need to trade him, but if they did, I think thered be a lineup of playoff teams bidding. Perfect guy to add to go to war for your team in the playoffs. Pretty much couldnt ask for a better 3rd liner who can play up the lineup.

 

[Micklebot]

If Brown were an excellent third line player teams would easily add him to a lineup. The Sens could easily swap his $2 cap hit for a plug and a top pick or prospect. The reality is he just isn’t that attractive.

He is useful...deserves to be in the league, but not an excellent player on the third line (my original point).

If there were any indication that he were on the market, teams probably would inquire. There is no indication that we are interested in moving him, so there is no trade talk about him.

Your premise that excellent third liners are all over trade speculation is flawed. Trade speculation begins with the assumption of availability. Pastrnak is an excellent player, he's not all over trade speculation because there is zero chance he's available. Duchene and Stone last year were all over trade speculation last year because there was an assumption they were available.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion about Brown, I'm not really challenging that regardless of whether I agree or not. What I'm challenging is the evidence you presented. If you want to make a case that he's not a great 3rd line option, do so on the merits of his play, because your assumed rationale as to why he isn't in trade talks isn't very compelling evidence.

 

[Sweatred]

Dont agree. The sens have no need to trade him, but if they did, I think thered be a lineup of playoff teams bidding. Perfect guy to add to go to war for your team in the playoffs. Pretty much couldnt ask for a better 3rd liner who can play up the lineup.

Fair enough … I would trade Brown in a heart beat for a 1-2RD pick/prospect type player which should be the market for a top third line player. Why would we call C. Brown "untradeable" ?????

 

[Sweatred]

If there were any indication that he were on the market, teams probably would inquire. There is no indication that we are interested in moving him, so there is no trade talk about him.

Your premise that excellent third liners are all over trade speculation is flawed. Trade speculation begins with the assumption of availability. Pastrnak is an excellent player, he's not all over trade speculation because there is zero chance he's available. Duchene and Stone last year were all over trade speculation last year because there was an assumption they were available.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion about Brown, I'm not really challenging that regardless of whether I agree or not. What I'm challenging is the evidence you presented. If you want to make a case that he's not a great 3rd line option, do so on the merits of his play, because your assumed rationale as to why he isn't in trade talks isn't very compelling evidence.

Players don't have to have their status leaked that they are available to be traded. Clearly a pending UFA is easier to define as available but any GM is free (and I assume they do) to inquire about any player. I can't think of any reason why the Sens wouldn't take offers on guys like Brown, Ennis etc. There is no reason to give them away, but to call them untradeable is foolish. These guys are decent but players like this are available every season and they are not all that different from us acquiring Duclair, Names, Gibbons etc.

 

[Micklebot]

Players don't have to have their status leaked that they are available to be traded. Clearly a pending UFA is easier to define as available but any GM is free (and I assume they do) to inquire about any player. I can't think of any reason why the Sens wouldn't take offers on guys like Brown, Ennis etc. There is no reason to give them away, but to call them untradeable is foolish. They guys are decent but players like this are available every season and they are not all that different from us acquiring Duclair, Gibbons etc.

What are you even talking about?

I never mentioned Ennis, but they will clearly be shopping him by the deadline.
I never said Brown was untradable, I said he's not all over the trade rumours because he is not assumed to be available. Would they take an offer on him? Depends on the offer, but there would be no rush to do so given those offers will likely still be around down the road given his age, contract status, and current performance.

Your argument was based on a faulty premise. Brown's name not being leaked all over the trade rumours is not evidence other teams would not be happy to add him for a playoff run, it is evidence that the Sens are not exploring trading him at the moment. There's no real reason to explore moving him right now as we currently need bodies, and he's still under our control as a RFA.

Brown's situation is nothing like Duclair's... I can't even begin to stress that one enough, it's just such a nonsense claim, and Gibbons? Are you serious? You think acquiring RFA Brown on pace for around 50 pts is similar in any way to a UFA 30 year old Gibbons who still hadn't established himself as a full time NHL player and has only once in his career gotten a one-way contract, for a single year at close to league minimum?

I mean, I said it before, you`re entitled to your opinion, but frankly it seems unlikely we're going to see eye to eye on... well anything, if these are the types of positions you're going to advocate...

 

[aragorn]

Ha ! How many cup contenders are begging to add Connor Brown to their third line to secure their playoff goal? The guy works hard but the idea that he is an excellent two way player is exaggerated.

Excellent third line players are all over trade speculation. Pager is an excellent third line player.

Add Balcers, Batherson, Norris, Formenton and a 2020 1RD pick and it is getting hard to justify Brown into the top 9.

This is nonsense.

First sentence - you have no idea how many cup contenders are interested in C. Brown or not, none of us do. He has 14 assists & is showing a very good playmaking ability & makes the players around him better & he's excellent defensively which is why so many analysts are talking about the Leafs missing him the most. He plays well at both ends of the ice, the very definition of a good two way player. I assume because he isn't scoring a lot of goals is why you say he isn't a good two way player.

Second sentence - yes 3rd line players are all over trade speculation & it wouldn't surprise me if they get calls on him, but at 25 yrs old he fits the rebuild & can help this team improve until a better player takes his spot. Pageau is being talked about in trades because he is a UFA, Brown is an RFA & most likely to be re-signed.

Third sentence - Batherson is the only RW you listed, the other guys play LW & C. The Sens are shy of good RWers in their org & I don't see Davidsson taking his job anytime soon & Balcers is another soft player, I doubt he replaces a tenacious player like C. Brown who has a non-stop motor. He'll be on the top nine until someone plays as well defensively & can out produce him offensively & that IMO could be a few yrs away. If Batherson gets called up it will likely be because Namestikov or Ennis have been traded not to replace C. Brown.

 

[Sweatred]

This is nonsense.

First sentence - you have no idea how many cup contenders are interested in C. Brown or not, none of us do. He has 14 assists & is showing a very good playmaking ability & makes the players around him better & he's excellent defensively which is why so many analysts are talking about the Leafs missing him the most. He plays well at both ends of the ice, the very definition of a good two way player. I assume because he isn't scoring a lot of goals is why you say he isn't a good two way player.

Second sentence - yes 3rd line players are all over trade speculation & it wouldn't surprise me if they get calls on him, but at 25 yrs old he fits the rebuild & can help this team improve until a better player takes his spot. Pageau is being talked about in trades because he is a UFA, Brown is an RFA & most likely to be re-signed.

Third sentence - Batherson is the only RW you listed, the other guys play LW & C. The Sens are shy of good RWers in their org & I don't see Davidsson taking his job anytime soon & Balcers is another soft player, I doubt he replaces a tenacious player like C. Brown who has a non-stop motor. He'll be on the top nine until someone plays as well defensively & can out produce him offensively & that IMO could be a few yrs away. If Batherson gets called up it will likely be because Namestikov or Ennis have been traded not to replace C. Brown.

So what teams? What Stanley Cup contending teams are desperately seeking a C. Brown type player for their third line ?
It’s easy to ID teams that could use Pager on a third line. You guys are forgetting that until yesterday Brown had two goals on the second worst team in the league. All I said was that he isn’t an excellent third liner . That doesn’t mean he is crap. You must think we have the best third line in the league with Pager/Brown.

 

[aragorn]

If C. Brown is moved out of the top six it will be because Ottawa has a better player than him playing above him which is great for Ottawa & strengthens the bottom six. However, I don't see that happening just yet with the players they have in their org especially at RW. IMO Brown is too far advanced in playing the game the right way, the way this coaching staff wants every one of their players to play like that to be replaced anytime soon.

Batherson might pass him some day on RW, but he has to play at both ends of the ice better & produce consistently in the NHL to do that. And at 25 yrs old Brown seems like he is just starting to get into his prime & could start taking off as a hockey player, he does everything right now & only has to produce more consistently offensively to be a star in this league. I think Ottawa got a steal with him.

 

[JD1]

You must think we have the best third line in the league with Pager/Brown.

This team currently lacks elite talent. I think we can agree on almost all nights the opponents top 5 players are better than ours. That will (hopefully) change as our guys become more experienced

That said, you might consider that the reason we are in games, and we've been in about 26 of them, is because of the compete and two way play of our 6th to 12th guys. On many nights they are indeed better than the opponents 6 to 12 guys.

 

[Micklebot]

This team currently lacks elite talent. I think we can agree on almost all nights the opponents top 5 players are better than ours. That will (hopefully) change as our guys become more experienced

That said, you might consider that the reason we are in games, and we've been in about 26 of them, is because of the compete and two way play of our 6th to 12th guys. On many nights they are indeed better than the opponents 6 to 12 guys.

I think Brown and Pageau have been excellent this year for the most part.

I also think it's not entirely accurate to call them our 3rd line given they are 1st and 3rd in total ES TOI on the team.

If we are to call them our de-facto 3rd line despite the above, I'd definitely consider them along with Paul to be having among the best seasons so far this year by a third line.

 

[JD1]

I think Brown and Pageau have been excellent this year for the most part.

I also think it's not entirely accurate to call them our 3rd line given they are 1st and 3rd in total ES TOI on the team.

If we are to call them our de-facto 3rd line despite the above, I'd definitely consider them along with Paul to be having among the best seasons so far this year by a third line.

I don't think we have a defacto any line. Ice time varies a lot, specifically at 5 on 5. One of the strengths of the team in my mind is that once we get beyond the other side's stars on any given night, what the other side has left isn't as strong as what we have.

 

[GCK]

I’m curious what is the most you would on AAV for this player on a 4 year deal.

I have my max at 3.25 hoping for a little less.

 

[JungleBeat]

I wouldn’t sign him to a deal longer than two years. He seems like the type of player that will go through long stretches of not scoring and being ineffective.

 

[Micklebot]

I wouldn’t sign him to a deal longer than two years. He seems like the type of player that will go through long stretches of not scoring and being ineffective.

Brown seems to me like a guy who will help even when he isn't scoring, but i don't disagree that he is likely an inconsistent scorer.

 

[Sweatred]

I’m curious what is the most you would on AAV for this player on a 4 year deal.

I have my max at 3.25 hoping for a little less.

$3.6 is about the average AAV per player on a team. We already have committed to $8 (Chabot) , 7$(Ryan) , ($5) White and hope to have future top 6 +$5 players. That drops the remaining /player lower into the $2’s. Once you start giving you third line $3+ you are creating potential cap hit squeeze.

Our third line should cost around $ 6-8 million and we would already committed $5 White and $3 potentially to C.Brown with a third player to come.

that cap crunch is prob 2-3 years away so we just have to watch the term in CBrown type players.

Players like Brown and Ennis are way more valuable when they make $1.8 or $1.0 vs $3.25 etc.

 

[GCK]

$3.6 is about the average AAV per player on a team. We already have committed to $8 (Chabot) , 7$(Ryan) , ($5) White and hope to have future +$5 players. That drops the remaining /player lower into the $2’s. Once you start giving you third line $3+ you are creating potential cap hit squeeze.

Our third line should cost around $ 6-8 million and we would already committed $5 White and $3 potentially to C.Brown with a third player to come.

that cap crunch is prob 2-3 years away so we just have to watch the term in CBrown type players.

Players like Brown and Ennis are way more valuable when they make $1.8 or $1.0 vs $3.25 etc.

They paid White to be in the top 6 IMO

 

[Sweatred]

They paid White to be in the top 6 IMO

I think that is the hope - Brady, SJ 2020, OTT 2020, Norris, Brown 21, Batherson, Duclair, Pager, Balcers, Unknown player / FA etc may limit space or more Importantly cost similar money meaning we have to save it on guys like C.Brown etc.

It doesn’t matter where White/Norris types slot but their pay does. We only have so many slots for +$5 forwards.

 

[Qward]

Give C. Brown and Duclair matching contracts. 3x 3.5

They are both career 0.4 ppg players Brown is just more on the playmaker side.

 

[Sweatred]

Give C. Brown and Duclair matching contracts. 3x 3.5

They are both career 0.4 ppg players Brown is just more on the playmaker side.

That is a lot for Brown ... he may be worth that but there is an efficiency for GM’s available to find these guys around the league.

Getting Brown/Ennis type seasons out of a combined $3 Million is a great way to build a competitive team Vs overpaying young ineffective RFA’s.

 

[Xspyrit]

3.5 is a lot for Brown?

A good comparable is Killorn, 4.45 per

Maybe a bit less but no chance at all that Brown signs for 3.5 or less.