Confidence in Babcock (Part II)

[zeke]

Zeke, you love throwing out these stats, and remember, we are a very good team. But who are we beating of any consequence since Feb 1?

Wins: Pitt, Ott, Mon, Ana, Col, Veg, Mon, Buf, Edm, Buf, Cgy, Edm

How many of these would you consider teams that are strong this year? How many of these teams have a particularly strong defensive structure? Calgary and Vegas? Beating Mon, Edm, and Buff twice each will pad our stats.

Now who did we lose to?

Loss: Det, NYR, Ari, STL, Wash, NYI, Van, TBL

So how many of those should we have lost to? 4? And should we have lost to Det, NYR, Ari, Van?

Any way you spin it with stats, the bottom line is who are we playing and who are we beating. Do we beat teams that allow us to free wheel and give us space and have trouble with those that don’t? We haven’t looked right the past month and denying it with stats without context is akin to putting our heads in the sand.

Confidence in Babcock (Part II)

 

[ShaneFalco]

I really don't think Dubas has the stones to make such a move, but Shanny would. A failure in this playoff will almost certainly be blamed on the D though so Babs is likely teflon for another season at least. I think an early knockout next season would get him axed, regardless of the money owed. Coach goes before the GM who goes before the Prez. They will make some aggressive personnel moves if they don't get past Boston.

Agreed
Some tough decisions will have to be made on the core going forward if they get man-handled in the first round

I don't know, it just seems this team has been deflated for some time, but can get by on talent. They sure as hell don't look playoff ready despite the injuries

 

[Kiwi]

Last 20gms aka since All-Star:

20 games
12 wins 5 losses 3 overtime losses
27 points
111 point pace
3.60 goals per game
2.95 goals against per game
.914 save percentage
51.0 corsi for percentage
52.0 scoring chances for percentage
23.3 power play percentage
78.4 penalty kill percentage

Games Missed:

Ennis 9
Kadri 8
Gardiner 7
Dermott 6
Kapanen 1
Johnsson 1

Only thing that looks subpar there is the penalty kill, looks like.


Tavares: 20gms, 8gls, 22pts (82gms, 33gls, 90pts)
Marner: 20gms, 4gls, 20pts (82gms, 16gls, 82pts)
Matthews: 20gms, 10gls, 18pts (82gms, 41gls, 74pts)

Johnsson: 19gms, 9gls, 15pts (82gms, 39gls, 65pts)
Hyman: 20gms, 8gls, 14pts (82gms, 33gls, 57pts)
Marleau: 20gms, 3gls, 13pts (82gms, 12gls, 53pts)

Kapanen: 19gms, 4gls, 12pts (82gms, 17gls, 52pts)
Nylander: 20gms, 4gls, 10pts (82gms, 16gls, 41pts)
Kadri: 12gms, 2gls, 5pts (82gms, 14gls, 34pts)

Brown: 20gms, 2gls, 6pts (82gms, 8gls, 25pts)
Goat: 19gms, 1gls, 4pts (82gms, 4gls, 17pts)
Ennis: 10gms, 5gls, 6pts (82gms, 41gls, 49pts)

Moore: 7gms, 0gls, 4pts (82gms, 0gls, 47pts)
Petan: 2gms, 1gls, 1pts (82gms, 41gls, 41pts)


Rielly: 20gms, 5gls, 15pts (82gms, 21gls, 62pts)
Muzzin: 20gms, 2gls, 11pts (82gms, 8gls, 45pts)

Gardiner: 13gms, 0gls, 5pts (82gms, 0gls, 32pts)
Zaitsev: 20gms, 2gls, 5pts (82gms, 8gls, 21pts)

Dermott: 14gms, 1gls, 3pts (82gms, 6gls, 18pts)
Hainsey: 20gms, 1gls, 4pts (82gms, 4gls, 16pts)

Marincin: 6gms, 0gls, 2pts (82gms, 0gls, 27pts)
Ozhiganov: 5gms, 0gls, 0pts
Holl: 2gms, 0gls, 0pts


Andersen: 17gs, .921
Sparks: 3gs, .891

Thanks for that Zeke

We're giving up 3 goals a game which seems way to high

Shots shares and chances are reasonably even, I'd expect us to bully games more with 2 franchise level 1C Rielly and that wing depth

PK is struggling, although the PP is picking up which is positive

That record is better than I would have expected but I still believe the team doesn't "look right"

 

[Buds17]

If the Leafs get ousted in the first round again, will Dubas can Babcock?

The first year was a bonus. Last year was not. They were not ready to start the playoffs on time and the team was a powerhouse like this year. This year we have seen the emergence of so many other young players.

This year, the team is an absolute powerhouse.

No excuses.

Thoughts?

I'd be unhappy to start the playoffs again on the road, in the event it comes to that. If the result is that and a first round loss, it'd be a strike, but not the final strike IMO.

 

[GoonieFace]

Honestly it’s not that big of a deal if we lose in the first round again. Boston is one of the best teams in the league. The playoff format is a joke and it sucks for both Boston and Toronto because they both have to play one of the best teams in the league in the first round. The series could go either way. We have about a 55-60% chance of winning this series. No way Babcock gets fired anytime soon.

True statement. The leafs played Washington in 2016-17 (1st overall in NHL) Boston in 2017-18 (4th overall) and Boston in 2018-19 (currently tied 3rd overall). Thats a tough order for any team.

 

[RLF]

He plays in spirts.
There are alot of times his skating with no purpose
The he score a grt goal like the one he did against tbay.
Your wow where did that come from.
He is not very consistant.

Yes he can be inconsistent, but I feel his one on one battles have shown more intensity more often. I rarely think Wow, here did that come from when watching Matthews...it is more a let's see it more often reaction.

 

[RLF]

eh, 2-3 record against the top-8 is fine.

2gms were coin flips, 1gm was a blowout win, 2gms were blowout losses.

Well considering the bottom 15 don't make the playoffs...2-3 against top 8 is not good unless we are only worried about how we finish the regular season. I am more concerned about how top teams play us and if they are able to shut our offence down...and the more the season goes on, the more teams are learning how to.

 

[Slyfox]

In a weird way, I hope we lose badly so there's a change. We ain't beating Boston and Tampa and whoever else. I rather get humiliated in the first round if it means changes happen in the coaching dept.

 

[GoonieFace]

In a weird way, I hope we lose badly so there's a change. We ain't beating Boston and Tampa and whoever else. I rather get humiliated in the first round if it means changes happen in the coaching dept.

Thing is, its not a coaching problem. Effort is not a coaching problem, and thats really all that holds this team back. Consistent effort from what people hail as the "elite" players on this team.

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

Seriously? That's such a cop-out
Boston isn't some powerhouse team. They're a very good team that gets in the Leaf's heads. Coaches are paid, like GM's, to get results.
And it would be a bit different if the team actually plays a solid series and loses, rather than spending lots of time in their own end hemmed in and being thoroughly out-classed at times (like the whole 3rd period of game 7)

I thought we played Boston pretty well in both series. We had the lead in the 3rd period of the 7th game both times - I think that shows pretty solid play. I don't want to talk about the 3rd period of those game 7s. Not ever. But that's only like 5% of the series. Given where we were in the standings against Boston, we did pretty well.

And of course we played well against the Caps, so there's that....

Now this year..... we have to get out of the first round, no matter what. So Babcock needs to get the team going, and all of our players have to show up. Matthews needs to be a real difference-maker. Tavares needs to show us why we got him. Mitch.... needs to be Mitch. Willie's got to earn that nice contract we gave him. Kadri needs to stay in the game. Freddy's got to be a star (he is!). Morgan's gotta be.... Morgan. Gards needs to be not-game-7-Gards...... and everyone's got to stay (or get) healthy.

 

[Peasy]

Thing is, its not a coaching problem. Effort is not a coaching problem, and thats really all that holds this team back. Consistent effort from what people hail as the "elite" players on this team.

It definitely can be. You are less motivated to put in your best effort for someone you dislike. Have you ever had a boss you hated and one you liked? I'm willing to bet you are more motivated to do better work for the boss you like.

 

[ShaneFalco]

It definitely can be. You are less motivated to put in your best effort for someone you dislike. Have you ever had a boss you hated and one you liked? I'm willing to bet you are more motivated to do better work for the boss you like.

Yup and a coach's systems - maybe the players are so frustrated by it, they get deflated. I mean AM has mentioned how they do the same thing over and over again and don't make changes....
Players are pros, but also human. Respect is a big thing

Why is it babcock is given credit for developing players when they do well, but when they're not, it has nothing to do with coaching!?

 

[Al14]

Thing is, its not a coaching problem. Effort is not a coaching problem, and thats really all that holds this team back. Consistent effort from what people hail as the "elite" players on this team.

Lack of effort is a coaching problem when it is a result of the players disliking the coach, and/or his methods! JMHO.

 

[Peiskos]

True statement. The leafs played Washington in 2016-17 (1st overall in NHL) Boston in 2017-18 (4th overall) and Boston in 2018-19 (currently tied 3rd overall). Thats a tough order for any team.

The playoff seeding is ridiculous, needs to go back to the 1-8 system, or even an entirely new 1-16 system where the top 16 teams with the most points make it.

There are going to be inferior western teams making the playoffs over eastern teams with more points this year.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Against the top four teams in the East season (Lightning, Bruins, Capitals, Islanders), the Leafs are 4-8-0.

 

[Trapper]

Against the top four teams in the East season (Lightning, Bruins, Capitals, Islanders), the Leafs are 4-8-0.

The team isn’t finished by any means.
For all that people think is good (and there is very good) we are missing important elements around that good.

When we talk about toughness, it’s needed.
Toughness in terms of unyielding forecheck and coverage.

For example remove Marleau,Brown and Johnsson (in a trade for a D) and insert the game style played by Gourde,Paquette,etc around this core in the top 9.

Fix the right side D to better handle the opposition cycle.

 

[Slyfox]

Thing is, its not a coaching problem. Effort is not a coaching problem, and thats really all that holds this team back. Consistent effort from what people hail as the "elite" players on this team.

Matthews has called him out and said the team quit in the third last game. Also, we know Marner's Dad has raised issues about his playing time. I think its safe to say Nylander can't be thrilled playing sub 15mins a game playing with 4th line wingers. When you have guys like Marner and Matthews saying they can't screw up when a new line is created speaks to how the coaching is being handled.

 

[GoonieFace]

It definitely can be. You are less motivated to put in your best effort for someone you dislike. Have you ever had a boss you hated and one you liked? I'm willing to bet you are more motivated to do better work for the boss you like.

True, but whos to say they will like the next guy either. Do you really want a bunch of young players getting paid mega bucks kicking their legs and rolling around on the floor when things arent going their way.

Look, if I was getting paid $11 mil/season to play a sport, I think I could deal with a little tough love from Babs.

 

[GoonieFace]

Matthews has called him out and said the team quit in the third last game. Also, we know Marner's Dad has raised issues about his playing time. I think its safe to say Nylander can't be thrilled playing sub 15mins a game playing with 4th line wingers. When you have guys like Marner and Matthews saying they can't screw up when a new line is created speaks to how the coaching is being handled.

Matthews called out the players, saying they quit. Sounds to me like we have a bunch of whiny brats on this team if thats the case.

 

[zeke]

Against the top four teams in the East season (Lightning, Bruins, Capitals, Islanders), the Leafs are 4-8-0.

the isles aren't a top 4 team in the east. they're 5th now.

soon to be 6th. and the Leafs are 2-1-0 against the pens who are about to pass them.

 

[Slyfox]

Matthews called out the players, saying they quit. Sounds to me like we have a bunch of whiny brats on this team if thats the case.

He also called out Babcock. "We just kind of kept doing the same thing over and over again,” Matthews said.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Matthews called out the players, saying they quit. Sounds to me like we have a bunch of whiny brats on this team if thats the case.

Tbh most teams quit when it’s 6-1 in the third.

 

[Not My Tempo]

According to 31 Thoughts, The Sens asked to speak to DJ Smith about a head coaching job and the Leafs denied them. I wonder if management is just trying to keep Babs happy with his guy, or if they actually are fully on board with the way Smith coaches this teams D...

 

[zeke]

Removing the Leafs from the standings, and using the ranks amongst just the other 30 teams:

Vs. 01-05: 14gms, 7-7-0, +5 (82pt pace, +0.36gdiff)
Vs. 06-10: 10gms, 5-5-0, -7 (82pt pace, -0.70gdiff)

Vs. 11-15: 12gms, 8-3-1, +10 (116pt pace, +0.83gdiff)
Vs. 16-20: 10gms, 4-5-1, +5 (74pt pace, +0.50gdiff)

Vs. 21-25: 10gms, 8-1-1, +15 (139pt pace, +1.50gdiff)
Vs. 26-30: 13gms, 10-1-2, +25 (139pt pace, +1.92gdiff)


Vs. 01-10: 24gms, 12-12-0, -2 (82pt pace, -0.08gdiff)
Vs. 11-20: 22gms, 12-8-2, +15 (97pt pace, +0.68gdiff)
Vs. 21-30: 23gms, 18-2-3, +40 (139pt pace, +1.74gdiff)



Games Remaining:

Vs. 01-05: 1 home, 0 away
Vs. 06-10: 1 home, 2 away

Vs. 11-15: 0 home, 1 away
Vs. 16-20: 2 home, 1 away

Vs. 21-25: 2 home, 1 away
Vs. 26-30: 0 home, 2 away


Vs. 01-10 (4): 2 home, 2 away
Vs. 11-20 (4): 2 home, 2 away
Vs. 21-30 (5): 2 home, 3 away

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

In a weird way, I hope we lose badly so there's a change. We ain't beating Boston and Tampa and whoever else. I rather get humiliated in the first round if it means changes happen in the coaching dept.

I have been consoling myself in a similar way. If they beat boston..great..we beat them and on to better things. If we get smashed by Boston..babs is on the hot seat and he has only next year to make up for it at most before he is shown the door.

I think if we see the Leafs NOT allowing Keefe to be interviewed for a job this summer...it says lots about where Dubas is heading next year. Although, if they get swept and put up little fight this year..Maybe we get lucky and get Babs out sooner. I don't think they would be worried about the remaining years on his deal because of the Offset clause that all coaches have. We would only have to pay out the difference in salary that he would be short if he signed another deal with a team for less. Chances are some team would jump at getting a name coach and he would be unemployed for a few days at most. I think Dubas has the cajones to do it (just don't like his contract negotiation skills) if he can convince Shanny that the players have tuned him out.