Comparing Points Per Game in Wins vs. Losses

BOGO

Registered User
Oct 20, 2017
124
73
Is anyone aware of any reporting done that compares offensive output of players, either in a single season or over their career, in wins versus losses? My general theory has always been that a productive player that actually contributes to the team will produce about twice as many points in wins as losses. If you see a player that has similar production in wins and losses my theory is that they are not a key contributor to the team winning.

I have found this concept to be consistent whether a player is playing on a winning or losing team. The best players typically perform at twice the clip in the wins, even if they are rarer, than losses.

My secondary theory is that players who perform higher than average in losses are really just padding their stats but they are not scoring consequential points. Think of the player that scores a goal in a 4-1 loss as an example.

Just curious what people's opinions are on my theory, and if anyone has any data that they have run on the topic.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,905
Toronto
Is anyone aware of any reporting done that compares offensive output of players, either in a single season or over their career, in wins versus losses? My general theory has always been that a productive player that actually contributes to the team will produce about twice as many points in wins as losses. If you see a player that has similar production in wins and losses my theory is that they are not a key contributor to the team winning.

I have found this concept to be consistent whether a player is playing on a winning or losing team. The best players typically perform at twice the clip in the wins, even if they are rarer, than losses.

My secondary theory is that players who perform higher than average in losses are really just padding their stats but they are not scoring consequential points. Think of the player that scores a goal in a 4-1 loss as an example.

Just curious what people's opinions are on my theory, and if anyone has any data that they have run on the topic.
I also found elite players tended to get more ice-time in losses than wins, due to coach chasing the game and giving highly offensive players more minutes in the 3rd and/or calling a timeout to get them at least an extra shift.
 

BOGO

Registered User
Oct 20, 2017
124
73
Right, but if you look at elite players the trend is pretty consistent, their points in wins is twice what it is in losses. When you see a scoring player that does not fit the trend is where I see added value in my theory. It is expected that players will score more in a win and less in a loss, I think that is the general consensus. However, what if the variance between those is not substantial?
 

NDiesel

Registered User
Mar 22, 2008
9,140
9,451
NWO
Is anyone aware of any reporting done that compares offensive output of players, either in a single season or over their career, in wins versus losses? My general theory has always been that a productive player that actually contributes to the team will produce about twice as many points in wins as losses. If you see a player that has similar production in wins and losses my theory is that they are not a key contributor to the team winning.

I have found this concept to be consistent whether a player is playing on a winning or losing team. The best players typically perform at twice the clip in the wins, even if they are rarer, than losses.

My secondary theory is that players who perform higher than average in losses are really just padding their stats but they are not scoring consequential points. Think of the player that scores a goal in a 4-1 loss as an example.

Just curious what people's opinions are on my theory, and if anyone has any data that they have run on the topic.
What about this for your secondary theory - players who perform higher in losses do so because they are trying to do more to catch up - when they are winning they are trying harder to not allow a goal than to score one.
 
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BOGO

Registered User
Oct 20, 2017
124
73
Are you implying they might be a Selke candidate because they play a two way game? That's a fair theory I had not thought of. That's the point of this to me, to bounce ideas off each other, so I appreciate the input. I would be curious to see league-wide data and career data on the stat. NHL.com used to have the career stats at one time, but I do not think they do anymore, but they do year over year.
 

TheChamber91

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
54
14
I'm looking into this currently, but the stat seems to only have any meaning for players with a minimum of 30 points in a season.
 

BOGO

Registered User
Oct 20, 2017
124
73
I'm looking into this currently, but the stat seems to only have any meaning for players with a minimum of 30 points in a season.
I agree, it is really a stat for offensive players, not all players on the team. In theory, it is questioning whether or not players are providing contribution with their offense by doing so in competitive games. If you are a fourth line grinder it is typically not going to show the same impact as a 2nd pairing defenseman as an example.
 

TheChamber91

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
54
14


Here's the link for the spreadsheet with the stats from the 2017-18 regular season. I had to raise the bar to a minimum of 40 points, due to 30 point players coming out with crazy numbers that didn't reflect their play correctly. In the spreadsheet, the Points Per Game in wins divided by the PPG in losses is represented by Value(Win), and the reverse (PPG/L divided by PPG/W) is represented by Value(Loss). Another thing I saw reflected in the spreadsheet was worse teams ended up with higher average Value(Win) (due to them leaning on their offensive players more than teams with greater depth.) One interesting exception to this is the Coyotes, who ended up with stats similar to the Predators. I hope this is what you were looking for, and let me know if there are any errors. I'm considering expanding this to past seasons, but I'm shelving the project for now.
 

BOGO

Registered User
Oct 20, 2017
124
73
There we go
Interesting, I am really curious to look into it more. It seems like superstars have a Win Value near 3. My theory was that people with a Win Value near 1 might be suspect and just padding their stats but not actually contributing to the team's success. I do not know the teams well enough to say if that is an accurate representation for Skinner, Josi and Miller. The counter argument was that maybe those players were just more consistent, and whether the team is winning or losing you are seeing the same effort out of those guys.

Thank you so much for your time and work on this, I am definitely going to spend more time reviewing and see what I can figure out.
 

TheChamber91

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
54
14
Thank you so much for your time and work on this, I am definitely going to spend more time reviewing and see what I can figure out.

No problem! I thought this topic might be interesting to give a further look at, let me know if you find any errors.
 

TheChamber91

Registered User
Dec 27, 2017
54
14
I've been thinking about it, and would anyone happen to have a better name for this stat? I feel like Value(Win) and Value(Loss) are too generic.
 

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