Post-Game Talk: Cole's Plus/Minus: POWERPLAY GOALS, ZAR, EMPTY NETTERS

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Pittsburgh1776

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He has elevated far lesser players than Kasperi Kapanen and Jason Zucker throughout his career. Or at least, produced with them.

He has also made better hockey plays in terms of puck control, passing, receiving passes, beating defenders, defense, outside shooting, etc etc.

Yes he's old and it's unfair to keep asking him to do this. Yes JR should have tried to go in on 1 star (one who didn't suck at 5-on-5 hockey like Kessel) vs. 2 complimentary pieces. Yes the team is maybe better if he and Sid swap wingers.

But you control what you can control. And of the things Geno can control, his general quality of play is one of them and he has by and large failed so far this season.

I'm not arguing he hasn't been his own worst enemy most of the season. But the coach's job is to put players in the best position to succeed, and he isn't doing it.
 

radapex

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Sullivan plays people on their off wing, it's never stopped him before. Zucker doesn't fit with Malkin and one week isn't going to change it.

Here are some key advanced statistics that back up the notion that, if you feel Zucker-Malkin isn't working, then Zucker-Crosby is going to work even less. Oddly enough, we've got pretty similar sample sizes here so they should compare quite well.

2019-21 Zucker-Malkin
TOI: 168:06
CF%: 53.55
FF%: 56.65
GF%: 53.33
xGF%: 46.59
ΔGF%: +6.74 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 1.004
OZ%: 66.67

2019-21 Zucker-Crosby
TOI: 193:22
CF%: 51.93
FF%: 51.72
GF%: 50.00
xGF: 47.89
ΔGF%: +2.11 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 0.986
OZ%: 67.42

So we can see here that Zucker has been deployed in the offensive zone a little more frequently with Crosby than with Malkin. xGF% is bad for both... slightly worse with Malkin, but that may be reflective of the OZ% or perhaps which D pairs they're deployed with. Every other statistic favours Malkin over Crosby. Now let's do the same comparison for Guentzel; the sample size with Crosby is larger, but both samples are big enough to be meaningful.

2019-21 Guentzel-Malkin
TOI: 295:01
CF%: 58.08
FF%: 60.72
GF%: 64.71
xGF%: 62.71
ΔGF%: +2.00 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 1.016

2019-21 Guentzel-Crosby
TOI: 439:46
CF%: 58.64
FF%: 59.13
GF%: 55.00
xGF%: 58.16
ΔGF%: -3.16 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 0.989

So here we can see that things are pretty even, but Guentzel-Malkin has been more productive than Guentzel-Crosby. However, here is where things start to really diverge...

2019-21 Malkin w/o Guentzel
TOI: 692:04
CF%: 51.08
FF%: 52.40
GF%: 52.70
xGF%: 53.38
ΔGF%: -0.68 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 1.006

2019-21 Crosby w/o Guentzel
TOI: 369:30
CF%: 49.43
FF%: 49.03
GF%: 47.22
xGF%: 47.72
ΔGF%: -0.50 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 0.990

As you may have noticed, every combination here except for "Crosby w/o Guentzel" has a positive CF%, FF%, and GF%... even when they have a negative (less than 50) xGF%. But in the case of "Crosby w/o Guentzel" every statistic goes to the negative side. In other words, you'd go from having both Crosby and Malkin having a positive effect on games (per statistics) to Malkin having a positive effect and Crosby having a negative effect.
 

Tom Hanks

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Jake with Sid or Malkin since 2018/19

Jake-Sid
GF/60 - 3.65
GA/60 - 2.1

Jake-Malkin
GF/60 - 3.86
GA/60 - 3.16


Zucker with Sid or Malkin since 2019/20

Zucker-Sid
GF/60 - 2.79
GA/60 - 2.79

Zucker-Malkin
GF/60 - 2.86
GA/60 - 2.5
 

ChaosAgent

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I'm not arguing he hasn't been his own worst enemy most of the season. But the coach's job is to put players in the best position to succeed, and he isn't doing it.

There's only 1 Jake Guentzel and 1 Bryan Rust to go around, homie.

I'll give them to the guy playing better, at least in the offensive zone. For the betterment of the team.

Whether Kap or especially Zucker should be shipped out for a better fit...well, the latter I'm all for. Geno also really needs to learn to defer to his wingers every once in a while. His line is exceedingly easy to defend when he exudes "give me the puck" all over the ice in any remotely dangerous situation. I think part of the reason Phil thrived for a time with Geno was that Phil had enough self-confidence to ignore his demands.
 
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DesertedPenguin

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But when your second superstar is struggling you help him. Right?
Depends on the source of his struggles.

Malkin's ailments are self-inflicted. He's not shooting enough. He's not engaged defensively. His passes are off.

People are blaming Zucker and Kapanen when Malkin was struggling with Rust on his line, too, and that's a proven partnership.
 

ChaosAgent

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Here are some key advanced statistics that back up the notion that, if you feel Zucker-Malkin isn't working, then Zucker-Crosby is going to work even less. Oddly enough, we've got pretty similar sample sizes here so they should compare quite well.

2019-21 Zucker-Malkin
TOI: 168:06
CF%: 53.55
FF%: 56.65
GF%: 53.33
xGF%: 46.59
ΔGF%: +6.74 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 1.004
OZ%: 66.67

2019-21 Zucker-Crosby
TOI: 193:22
CF%: 51.93
FF%: 51.72
GF%: 50.00
xGF: 47.89
ΔGF%: +2.11 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 0.986
OZ%: 67.42

So we can see here that Zucker has been deployed in the offensive zone a little more frequently with Crosby than with Malkin. xGF% is bad for both... slightly worse with Malkin, but that may be reflective of the OZ% or perhaps which D pairs they're deployed with. Every other statistic favours Malkin over Crosby. Now let's do the same comparison for Guentzel; the sample size with Crosby is larger, but both samples are big enough to be meaningful.

2019-21 Guentzel-Malkin
TOI: 295:01
CF%: 58.08
FF%: 60.72
GF%: 64.71
xGF%: 62.71
ΔGF%: +2.00 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 1.016

2019-21 Guentzel-Crosby
TOI: 439:46
CF%: 58.64
FF%: 59.13
GF%: 55.00
xGF%: 58.16
ΔGF%: -3.16 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 0.989

So here we can see that things are pretty even, but Guentzel-Malkin has been more productive than Guentzel-Crosby. However, here is where things start to really diverge...

2019-21 Malkin w/o Guentzel
TOI: 692:04
CF%: 51.08
FF%: 52.40
GF%: 52.70
xGF%: 53.38
ΔGF%: -0.68 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 1.006

2019-21 Crosby w/o Guentzel
TOI: 369:30
CF%: 49.43
FF%: 49.03
GF%: 47.22
xGF%: 47.72
ΔGF%: -0.50 (GF% - xGF%)
PDO: 0.990

As you may have noticed, every combination here except for "Crosby w/o Guentzel" has a positive CF%, FF%, and GF%... even when they have a negative (less than 50) xGF%. But in the case of "Crosby w/o Guentzel" every statistic goes to the negative side. In other words, you'd go from having both Crosby and Malkin having a positive effect on games (per statistics) to Malkin having a positive effect and Crosby having a negative effect.

The single biggest takeaway here is that Zucker isn't as good as some people here believe. The Minnesota fans weren't exactly weeping when he made his way here.
 

DesertedPenguin

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The single biggest takeaway here is that Zucker isn't as good as some people here believe. The Minnesota fans weren't exactly weeping when he made his way here.
He's a positive possession driver who will score 20-25 goals per season.

He's not Guentzel or prime Kessel. He's a top six winger with speed and defensive responsibility. If you thought he was more than that, that's your fault.
 
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radapex

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Look. I've been watching this team a long time. There are troves of evidence to indicate if Crosby is unhappy, things change. Crosby's word goes a long way in this organization, as it should, to a point. If he wants to play with Kunitz and Dupuis he does, if he wants to play with Sheary he does, if he wants to play with Guentzel and Rust he does, it goes on and on. If you want to sit here and argue against that, I don't care. I'm not naive. And for the last time, it's not about better or worse players. It's about the fit of them. Zucker does nothing for the line and the success it does have is because of Malkin and Kapanen making a play. I'm tired of arguing this. No, I don't think it will change. But I'm frustrated and have the right to vent.
Sure, if you ignore everyone that's come through the organization and has said that Crosby plays who he's told to play with and doesn't make a fuss. Or, I suppose, he was playing with Evan Rodrigues by choice this season, and his poor play during that time was actually because he was so elated to be playing with him that he couldn't actually focus on the game and not because he was frustrated with who was on his RW.
 

Pittsburgh1776

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There's only 1 Jake Guentzel and 1 Bryan Rust to go around, homie.

I'll give them to the guy playing better, at least in the offensive zone. For the betterment of the team.

Whether Kap or especially Zucker should be shipped out for a better fit...well, the latter I'm all for. Geno also really needs to learn to defer to his wingers every once in a while. His line is exceedingly easy to defend when he exudes "give me the puck" all over the ice in any remotely dangerous situation. I think part of the reason Phil thrived for a time with Geno was that Phil had enough self-confidence to ignore his demands.

Having one line going well and the other sucking isn't best for the team. Only a few games ago the first line was not good. Also, Malkin not deferring to his wingers is the least of his problems right now. He needs to defer less and shoot more.
 

radapex

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I'm not arguing he hasn't been his own worst enemy most of the season. But the coach's job is to put players in the best position to succeed, and he isn't doing it.
The coach's job is to win games. End of story. Despite all odds, despite the porous team defense, despite the horrid goaltending... he's doing it.
 

ChaosAgent

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He's a positive possession driver who will score 20-25 goals per season.

He's not Guentzel or prime Kessel. He's a top six winger with speed and defensive responsibility. If you thought he was more than that, that's your fault.

The numbers posted above say he has an xGF south of 50% with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby.

I think he does some things well (speed & hands) but the results aren't there.
 

Pittsburgh1776

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Sure, if you ignore everyone that's come through the organization and has said that Crosby plays who he's told to play with and doesn't make a fuss. Or, I suppose, he was playing with Evan Rodrigues by choice this season, and his poor play during that time was actually because he was so elated to be playing with him that he couldn't actually focus on the game and not because he was frustrated with who was on his RW.

Crosby played with Sheary because he wanted to. Sheary is not dissimilar to Rodriguez. Argue it all day, I don't care. I'm not naive. If you're playing on Crosby's line for any length of time its because he wants you there.
 

Pittsburgh1776

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The coach's job is to win games. End of story. Despite all odds, despite the porous team defense, despite the horrid goaltending... he's doing it.

Yeah, and if you think these wins are by some grand design not sure what to tell you. This was what, their first win in regulation? Come on.
 

radapex

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There's only 1 Jake Guentzel and 1 Bryan Rust to go around, homie.

I'll give them to the guy playing better, at least in the offensive zone. For the betterment of the team.

Whether Kap or especially Zucker should be shipped out for a better fit...well, the latter I'm all for. Geno also really needs to learn to defer to his wingers every once in a while. His line is exceedingly easy to defend when he exudes "give me the puck" all over the ice in any remotely dangerous situation. I think part of the reason Phil thrived for a time with Geno was that Phil had enough self-confidence to ignore his demands.

This, right here, is the root of the issue. The team just isn't built well enough. I mean, our third line right now was our fourth line last season -- and it's not because they suddenly became better players, it's because we don't have better options for a third line. Kapanen should be on the third line, but he's in the top 6 because we don't have other options.
 
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DesertedPenguin

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The numbers posted above say he has an xGF south of 50% with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby.

I think he does some things well (speed & hands) but the results aren't there.
That's literally the only negative on that list, and it comes during large stretches where Malkin and Crosby haven't been at their best, especially defensively. Positive possession numbers all throughout.
 

Pittsburgh1776

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I so hate the way advanced stats are used. You're literally going to sit here and tell me that what I see with my own eyes (an unproductive player who is out of sorts all over the ice and bumbles nearly every play he has with Malkin) is some kind of average to good player who plays better with Malkin than he does with Crosby. Ignoring the other factors at play and HOW THEY PLAY ON THE ICE. Come on man.
 
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radapex

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The single biggest takeaway here is that Zucker isn't as good as some people here believe. The Minnesota fans weren't exactly weeping when he made his way here.

Yeah, Zucker is basically a net-zero kind of player. He doesn't help a line, he doesn't hurt a line... he's just kind of there.
 

Pittsburgh1776

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Yeah, Zucker is basically a net-zero kind of player. He doesn't help a line, he doesn't hurt a line... he's just kind of there.

So let's leave him with our 1B superstar and watch 2 players play against 3 the whole game. This is our only option, you tell me, because we can't try anything else and it might not work if we do.
 

radapex

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The numbers posted above say he has an xGF south of 50% with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby.

I think he does some things well (speed & hands) but the results aren't there.

CF% and FF% do support the positive possession statement. But yeah, the xGF% is not good.

If there's anyone out there wondering how to make sense of those numbers, 50% means it's even. For example, a GF% of 50.00 means you've scored as many goals for as you've given up against. So having a xGF% below 50 means that it's expected that the Pens will give up more goals than they score when Zucker is on the ice. This is why I highlighted those "Crosby w/o Guentzel" numbers, because everything dips below 50% (which means the opponents are driving both possession and goal scoring).
 

ChaosAgent

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So let's leave him with our 1B superstar and watch 2 players play against 3 the whole game. This is our only option, you tell me, because we can't try anything else and it might not work if we do.

It's not 2 against 3 with him out there.

Come on. He's still a legit NHLer even if he doesn't click with Geno. This isn't a fan off the street.

I'd give McCann a go there when he returns. For as blah as McCann is he's at least easy for a guy like Geno to understand.
 
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Pittsburgh1776

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It's not 2 against 3 with him out there.

Come on. He's still a legit NHLer even if he doesn't click with Geno. This isn't a fan off the street.

I'd give McCann a go there when he returns. For as blah as McCann is he's at least easy for a guy like Geno to understand.

How is it not 2 against 3? When the line has success it's Malkin and Kapanen making a play. Zucker doesn't support the play, he doesn't know where to go, he doesn't know when to pass and when to shoot, he doesn't forecheck at the right times, he plays too far apart. It's 2 against 3 in the NHL. You can't afford to have a non-entity with a 34 year old Malkin. I'm not sayin Zucker isn't good by himself. He doesn't fit with that line and his presence is a non-factor and therefore a negative.
 
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