Post-Game Talk: Cole's Plus/Minus: Pens duck another loss!

[Shrimper]

Why does Simon get hate despite figuring into yet another goal?

Easy figure to hate for some.

 

[UnrealMachine]

Hasek had the most dominant stretch, Marty had the better career.

Compare Hasek & Brodeur to the backups and peers around the league during their careers. You'll arrive at a different conclusion.

 

[molon labe]

Lafferty does ZAR things better than ZAR. Just saying.

Bit of a slow game to watch as a Pens fan - but I stayed in there (anyone notice more commercial breaks than usual?). Sid was awesome, Marino was VERY noticeable, wow... Lafferty looks big on the puck and deserving of a role. And Dumo punking that dude was an amazing staple on the night. Oh props to Blueger too. I think the only negative on the night was ZAR being terrible per usual...even JJ deserves credit for a good game.

 

[UnrealMachine]

Or produce. Or play stifling defensive hockey7. Or create opportunities. Or, well, anything really.

People rag on Bjugs for being vanilla, and it's completely justified, but Simon's exactly the same kind of guy. He won't be a liability, but he's not really bringing anything to whatever line he's on either. Just saying that it'd be interesting to see what a true buzzsaw like Tanev could do for Sid/Jake. If it doesn't work, we can always go back to the vaunted Dominik Simon.

Guentzel-Crosby-Simon have a 5on5 GF% of 75% so far this season. 4.26 GF/60

Guentzel-Crosby-Other have a 5on5 GF% of 50% so far this season.

Something must be working. You just can't see it?

 

[Deport Ogie]

Marino definitely had some mistakes, but they are the right kind of mistakes you expect out of his type of player at this stage of development. Mistakes of aggression as opposed to hesitation.

JJ looked halfway decent also. Some will chalk 100% of that up to being paired with Marino and that's certainly part of it, but let's not be too biased to credit Johnson himself with some of the raise in his play. That being said, he should still be strapped to the first rocket out of town.

We've seen superstars take the team and just willfully carry them to victories before. Jagr did it for playoff series at a time, Mario did it for what, 6 years or so? That's certainly what we need out of Sid right now and thus far, it's what we are getting.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

WITH HER SISTER

I mean if you're gonna cheat, no one better to do it with. They should put that on his HOF bust, really

 

[UnrealMachine]

I think Simon's sort of an example where "analytics" can mislead a bit about a player's overall effectiveness. At some point, having a positive Corsi/Fenwick doesn't do much if you can't bury those chances.

For example, someone going 6 CF and 4 CA will look better analytically than someone going 4 CF and 6 CA in a game. But if the first player can't score to save his life while the second player can score more frequently, the second guy actually helps you win more.

Long story short: I'm sick if Simon having the shot of a bantam player.

See my post above. The objective of hockey is for a line to score goals and prevent goals from being scored. So far this season at 5on5 for that line:

4.26 GF/60
1.42 GA/60

 

[Empoleon8771]

See my post above. The objective of hockey is for a line to score goals and prevent goals from being scored. So far this season at 5on5 for that line:

4.26 GF/60
1.42 GA/60

You're talking about like a 40 minute sample size. You can't judge any players or combinations on such a small sample size.

Marino had like a 33% CF% last night, but he had an excellent game. If a player puts up a 33% CF% over an extended period, it's fair to say he's a bad player, but analytics in such a small sample size aren't reliable evaluators.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Regarding Marino:

“Yes, he does (have a chance to win a job in the top-six). That’s why he played (Thursday),” Penguins head coach Sullivan deadpanned.

“We put him in the lineup because we think he can help us win. He’s a good hockey player, and he’s shown a lot through training camp and up until this early part of the season,” said Sullivan. “That’s why the decision was made to put him in the lineup in the first place.”

Might not mean anything but its nice to hear.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Regarding Marino:





Might not mean anything but its nice to hear.

"Yes, he does have a chance to win a job in the top-six"

Again, this just tells me that they're not nearly as enamored with Gudbranson as people here thought they were.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

I think we're running into the same thing as last year: Jake and Sid are going bananas and it doesn't matter if Horny or Simon or one of us is with them right now, they're so good they're gonna succeed no matter who is the 3rd wheel.

This isn't to denigrate Simon's contributions or Hornys.

Hard to really say that Tanev or someone else would bump L1 performance appreciably more than it's going right now

 

[UnrealMachine]

You're talking about like a 40 minute sample size. You can't judge any players or combinations on such a small sample size.

Marino had like a 33% CF% last night, but he had an excellent game. If a player puts up a 33% CF% over an extended period, it's fair to say he's a bad player, but analytics in such a small sample size aren't reliable evaluators.

I don't give a toss about CF% I care about scoring and preventing goals. GCS had a 66.7% GF% last season. 75% so far this season in 42 minutes together. People who don't understand why G&C thrive with S either can't eye test or can't math. Period.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

"Yes, he does have a chance to win a job in the top-six"

Again, this just tells me that they're not nearly as enamored with Gudbranson as people here thought they were.

Well to be fair, people plugging Gud's in were basing it on the fact he can punch faces over just his abilities to play hockey. It's been a factor in the lineup decisions.

Because it's been a constant here for the past few years that they want an enforcer type in the lineup: Reaves, Olek, G Wilson, and now Guds

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't give a toss about CF% I care about scoring and preventing goals. GCS had a 66.7% GF% last season. 75% so far this season in 42 minutes together. People who don't understand why G&C thrive with S either can't eye test or can't math. Period.

Johnson-Gudbranson also has a 75% GF% this year, with a GF/60 of 8.81. This obviously means they should keep that pair together, right?

Well to be fair, people plugging Gud's in were basing it on the fact he can punch faces over just his abilities to play hockey. It's been a factor in the lineup decisions.

Because it's been a constant here for the past few years that they want an enforcer type in the lineup: Reaves, Olek, G Wilson, and now Guds

Really? If anything, I feel like Sullivan has shown he doens't like playing guys like these. Sullivan was never a fan of Reaves, Oleksiak and Gudbranson were both healthy scratches for better puck movers (Riikola over Oleksiak at the start of last year, Marino over Gudbranson this year) and Wilson was just your standard 4th line plodder.

I feel like the Oleksiak example is an especially good one, because Oleksiak was playing well at the start of last year when he got healthy scratched. He was scratched in November of last year for Riikola, as he had 4 goals and 8 points in 13 games while being a +4. He was also scratched in October, he was a healthy scratch for the game where Schultz blew up his leg.

 

[UnrealMachine]

Johnson-Gudbranson also has a 75% GF% this year, with a GF/60 of 8.81. This obviously means they should keep that pair together, right?

Do they have a track record of having success together last season over a longer time frame? Stop wasting everyones time. You're better than that.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I said he shouldn’t be playing in the top six if we are healthy. The 2nd line should be Galchenyuk - Malkin - Rust.

The Unicorn Line- as much as we'd all like to see it, it remains mythical.

Or it can only be seen by a pure hearted virgin, take your pick.

 

[LittleSpoon]

I don’t think the eye test fails for Simon. He’s quick, smart, has the hands to play in small areas, and is a lot better on the walls than many give him credit.

Not a perfect player but you could never show me the analytics and I’d think he’s good at hockey.

100% agree

 

[Jesse]

Ah. The old Letang can’t get shots on net even though @Jesse has proven he is in the top percentile in the league for getting shots through to the net for defensemen.

I hate that I have to disprove this narrative every year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Do they have a track record of having success together last season over a longer time frame? Stop wasting everyones time. You're better than that.

My point there was that judging players based solely on their goal differential is the same as saying "a line is good because it has a good +/-". That was a reply to you saying CF% doesn't matter to you.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I hate that I have to disprove this narrative every year.

I think the natural assumption is most of these people don’t watch Letang’s peers.

So they just see Letang getting his shots blocked a bunch and assume it’s only him who does a lot or misses the net.

 

[PensandCaps]

I think the natural assumption is most of these people don’t watch Letang’s peers.

So they just see Letang getting his shots blocked a bunch and assume it’s only him who does a lot or misses the net.

Yep. even Burns hits a ton of shin pads

 

[HandshakeLine]

I hate that I have to disprove this narrative every year.

You must have committed some horrible sins in a past life, Jesse. But we appreciate it all the same!

 

[UnrealMachine]

My point there was that judging players based solely on their goal differential is the same as saying "a line is good because it has a good +/-". That was a reply to you saying CF% doesn't matter to you.

Except that a line that has a good +/- over a longer period of time actually IS good. So why do GCS have a good +/-? Over the last 2 seasons:
HDCF/60 = 16.1
HDCA/60 = 7.6

Compared to GCx over that same time period:
HDCF/60 = 13.5
HDCA/60 = 10.2

It's not a fluke that GCS thrives when you have that kind of differential in HDCF%. You don't have to score goals to help your linemates score them.

 

[Jesse]

I think the natural assumption is most of these people don’t watch Letang’s peers.

So they just see Letang getting his shots blocked a bunch and assume it’s only him who does a lot or misses the net.

What the data consistently tells us is that Letang is one of the top 5 most accurate shooters in the league from the blueline. When you compare him to other elite PP QB's, he's in excess of +15% more accurate.

The issue is he doesn't shoot enough. That's the truest criticism. I think he would be well served to start letting more shots fly. His volume is always a little lower than his peers, and I guess that's to be expected given the star talent he shares the ice with on the man-advantage.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

What the data consistently tells us is that Letang is one of the top 5 most accurate shooters in the league from the blueline. When you compare him to other elite PP QB's, he's in excess of +15% more accurate.

The issue is he doesn't shoot enough. That's the truest criticism. I think he would be well served to start letting more shots fly. His volume is always a little lower than his peers, and I guess that's to be expected given the star talent he shares the ice with on the man-advantage.

I’d like to see where the shot volume numbers for the entire PP stand against the rest of the league.

Because not shooting enough would be my biggest criticism of the unit as a whole, too.