Post-Game Talk: Cole's Plus/Minus: Pens duck another loss!

[Bingo71]

What the data consistently tells us is that Letang is one of the top 5 most accurate shooters in the league from the blueline. When you compare him to other elite PP QB's, he's in excess of +15% more accurate.

The issue is he doesn't shoot enough. That's the truest criticism. I think he would be well served to start letting more shots fly. His volume is always a little lower than his peers, and I guess that's to be expected given the star talent he shares the ice with on the man-advantage.

Well, when the volume is lower it only stands to reason that you’ll probably have a higher percentage of shots on net than those who bomb away...

Problem with Kris is the double clutching. He’s so indecisive, especially on the PP. When he joins the rush he is much more likely to rip off a shot quickly and decisively. When he double clutches at the blue line, it allows defenders and goalies to cut down angles and get blocks and deflections.

Just stop the double clutching and shoot.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Really? If anything, I feel like Sullivan has shown he doens't like playing guys like these. Sullivan was never a fan of Reaves, Oleksiak and Gudbranson were both healthy scratches for better puck movers (Riikola over Oleksiak at the start of last year, Marino over Gudbranson this year) and Wilson was just your standard 4th line plodder.

I feel like the Oleksiak example is an especially good one, because Oleksiak was playing well at the start of last year when he got healthy scratched. He was scratched in November of last year for Riikola, as he had 4 goals and 8 points in 13 games while being a +4. He was also scratched in October, he was a healthy scratch for the game where Schultz blew up his leg.

Can't look at those people in a vacuum, because who played a ton of games last year? G Wilson (our supposed answer to Tom Wilson).
G Wilson doesn't play on our team any longer, so that caused a bunch of people to put Gud's name in stone this upcoming season.

I'm surprised (pleasantly) that Sully doesn't put a goon in. Because we were plenty fine during our 2 Cup runs not having anyone like that in the lineup

 

[Pancakes]

I think Simon's sort of an example where "analytics" can mislead a bit about a player's overall effectiveness. At some point, having a positive Corsi/Fenwick doesn't do much if you can't bury those chances.

For example, someone going 6 CF and 4 CA will look better analytically than someone going 4 CF and 6 CA in a game. But if the first player can't score to save his life while the second player can score more frequently, the second guy actually helps you win more.

Long story short: I'm sick if Simon having the shot of a bantam player.

If Simon is helping Crosby and Guentzel have the puck more often then he is doing his job even if he doesn't have the finishing touch we'd all like.

 

[Jesse]

Well, when the volume is lower it only stands to reason that you’ll probably have a higher percentage of shots on net than those who bomb away...

Problem with Kris is the double clutching. He’s so indecisive, especially on the PP. When he joins the rush he is much more likely to rip off a shot quickly and decisively. When he double clutches at the blue line, it allows defenders and goalies to cut down angles and get blocks and deflections.

Just stop the double clutching and shoot.

We can account for the difference in shots by adjusting to a per rate look at things rather than the raw data. It doesn't change the results. He's still pacing people.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

@Jesse @pixiesfanyo

My eyes tend to agree with the “Letang can’t get shots through” narrative when he’s on the powerplay. Obviously at all strengths or ES or 5v5, wherever Jesse got his numbers from he’s strong at that.

made me curious. So since I have free time today I’m running the sole PP numbers against other D who are considered good PP QBs.

It’s kinda tedious, so may take some time to really get a proper sample...... but Letang is grading out miserably so far. Like comes nowhere near the guys who I’ve got data on at getting shots through. There might be very real credence to this narrative on the power play at least.

 

[UnrealMachine]

@Jesse @pixiesfanyo

My eyes tend to agree with the “Letang can’t get shots through” narrative when he’s on the powerplay. Obviously at all strengths or ES or 5v5, wherever Jesse got his numbers from he’s strong at that.

made me curious. So since I have free time today I’m running the sole PP numbers against other D who are considered good PP QBs.

It’s kinda tedious, so may take some time to really get a proper sample...... but Letang is grading out miserably so far. Like comes nowhere near the guys who I’ve got data on at getting shots through. There might be very real credence to this narrative on the power play at least.

For D who played at least 164 minutes of 5on4 last season, there were a total of 32 players. Letang ranked:

31 of 32 in shots/60
26 of 32 in goals/60

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'll be curious to see the data on that because while I love Letang (most of the time), he seems to always struggle getting pucks through on the powerplay. Haven't noticed it so much at ES. Maybe he thinks he has that much more time on the PP and can get a little cute. IDK.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Aside from putting it on net the same amount of times as Schultz who you commended and you know. Actually scoring a goal.

And it was a shot pass to Sid. And Letang does it better than most players in the league.

But it was a pass.... not a shot

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

For D who played at least 164 minutes of 5on4, there were a total of 32 players. Letang ranked:

31 of 32 in shots/60
26 of 32 in goals/60

How’d you pull the whole league at once? I’m manually copying stuff over into excel like an idiot.

my numbers as of right now, (only collected data on 6 guys so understand it’s a small sample) but for comparison’s sake—

% of PP individual shot attempts that get through- 2016-17 thru 2019-20:

Letang= 44%
Burns=45%
Karlsson=43%
Carlson=48%
Yandle=47%
Krug=51%
Barrie=46%

Not cherry picked, just the first 6 names I thought of in terms of powerplay QBs.

Edit: my mistake, The Tang is NOT shocking in comparison. Formula was off, shouldn’t have said 11%. Still not amazing though.

 

[UnrealMachine]

How’d you pull the whole league at once? I’m manually copying stuff over into excel like an idiot.

my numbers as of right now, (only collected data on 6 guys so understand it’s a small sample) but for comparison’s sake—

% of PP individual shot attempts that get through- 2016-17 thru 2019-20:

Letang= 11%
Burns=45%
Karlsson=43%
Carlson=48%
Yandle=47%
Krug=51%
Barrie=46%

Not cherry picked, just the first 6 names I thought of in terms of powerplay QBs. The Tang is shockingly bad in comparison.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

We're probably just spoiled from watching Gonch effortlessly thread shots through.

Is there a measure of shin pad snipes that result in odd man rushes/60?

 

[Deport Ogie]

We're probably just spoiled from watching Gonch effortlessly thread shots through.

I've often wondered about this. Letang is an elite PMD who doesn't make the most natural transition as a historical PPQB type. But it has to have some effect that he directly inherited the job from a player who I still think is literally in the upper quadrant of PPQB dmen of all time, certainly on THIS franchise.

 

[Gurglesons]

We're probably just spoiled from watching Gonch effortlessly thread shots through.

Is there a measure of shin pad snipes that result in odd man rushes/60?

With the way the league has changed it’s approach on point shots Gonchar would probably look a lot like Letang these days.

Teams are simply not using slapshots from the point anymore.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

We're probably just spoiled from watching Gonch effortlessly thread shots through.

Is there a measure of shin pad snipes that result in odd man rushes/60?

I think that's a fair observation.

I still don't think Letang is the most "natural" player on the PP. But it's not really fair expecting him to fill THOSE shoes. Gonchar was a f***ing magician out there. His lateral skating ability on the point was ridiculous. Nevermind his shot selection and ability to get pucks through.

With the way the league has changed it’s approach on point shots Gonchar would probably look a lot like Letang these days.

Teams are simply not using slapshots from the point anymore.

Gonchar was actually really, really good at making intelligent shot selection decisions. He was perfectly fine with floating a soft wrister through. Often seemed to prefer it, honestly. Created a lot of second opportunities.

 

[Khelandros]

You all do realize that the PP doesn't run through the d-men, right? Shot production is irrelevant when Malkin/Crosby/Kessel are/were the driving force for shot production. The d-mens job is to get them the puck in clear shooting lanes.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think that's a fair observation.

I still don't think Letang is the most "natural" player on the PP. But it's not really fair expecting him to fill THOSE shoes. Gonchar was a ****ing magician out there. His lateral skating ability on the point was ridiculous. Nevermind his shot selection and ability to get pucks through.



Gonchar was actually really, really good at making intelligent shot selection decisions. He was perfectly fine with floating a soft wrister through. Often seemed to prefer it, honestly. Created a lot of second opportunities.

That’s great and I’m not denying Gonchar was one of the best PPQBs in league history.

My point is systems have changed and the focus of the powerplay is to get shots below the hashes in the slot. It’s been statistically proven and was a big part of Washington winning the cup.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

That’s great and I’m not denying Gonchar was one of the best PPQBs in league history.

My point is systems have changed and the focus of the powerplay is to get shots below the hashes in the slot. It’s been statistically proven and was a big part of Washington winning the cup.

Ah. I misread that as "smashing one-timers from the point doesn't cut it these days and it's more about simply getting it on net." But yes clearly teams are trying to move much closer towards distributing from the point in order to create chances in the parts of the ice you are talking about.

Though I still think there are lots of ways to accomplish the same thing. Like... if you get a guy up top who is good at sneaking in shots through traffic on net... you WILL get big second opportunities in the slot so long as you have players in the right position to take advantage. The trick, of course, is employing that Gonchar-level player. Easier to simply do what Washington does.

 

[td_ice]

"Bluegs......he's a killer!"

 

[SouthGeorge]

@Jesse @pixiesfanyo

My eyes tend to agree with the “Letang can’t get shots through” narrative when he’s on the powerplay. Obviously at all strengths or ES or 5v5, wherever Jesse got his numbers from he’s strong at that.

made me curious. So since I have free time today I’m running the sole PP numbers against other D who are considered good PP QBs.

It’s kinda tedious, so may take some time to really get a proper sample...... but Letang is grading out miserably so far. Like comes nowhere near the guys who I’ve got data on at getting shots through. There might be very real credence to this narrative on the power play at least.

Thank you. You are doing the lords work.

 

[Gurglesons]

Ah. I misread that as "smashing one-timers from the point doesn't cut it these days and it's more about simply getting it on net." But yes clearly teams are trying to move much closer towards distributing from the point in order to create chances in the parts of the ice you are talking about.

Though I still think there are lots of ways to accomplish the same thing. Like... if you get a guy up top who is good at sneaking in shots through traffic on net... you WILL get big second opportunities in the slot so long as you have players in the right position to take advantage. The trick, of course, is employing that Gonchar-level player. Easier to simply do what Washington does.

I mean one only needs to look at Brent Burns who fires 300+ shots a season and puts up 80 points a year from the blue line lol.

 

[BigEezyE22]

Well, when the volume is lower it only stands to reason that you’ll probably have a higher percentage of shots on net than those who bomb away...

Problem with Kris is the double clutching. He’s so indecisive, especially on the PP. When he joins the rush he is much more likely to rip off a shot quickly and decisively. When he double clutches at the blue line, it allows defenders and goalies to cut down angles and get blocks and deflections.

Just stop the double clutching and shoot.

The double clutching comes from the PP flowing through Phil on the left side. A RH shot isn't going to bomb away getting a pass across the body. It's flat out shooting mechanics .

 

[IcedCapp]

i only have three issues with Letang right now:

1) his first step looks like he's in cement.
2) he's been waiting himself into pressure (ie he'll have the puck and no one around him, then he waits so long a forward gets there, and then he makes a lazy backhand pass)
3) his double, triple, quadruple pumping on shots.

 

[SouthGeorge]

i only have three issues with Letang right now:

1) his first step looks like he's in cement.
2) he's been waiting himself into pressure (ie he'll have the puck and no one around him, then he waits so long a forward gets there, and then he makes a lazy backhand pass)
3) his double, triple, quadruple pumping on shots.

All this and what about his horrible positioning? I mean he only took out our #2 center long term.

 

[BigEezyE22]

That’s great and I’m not denying Gonchar was one of the best PPQBs in league history.

My point is systems have changed and the focus of the powerplay is to get shots below the hashes in the slot. It’s been statistically proven and was a big part of Washington winning the cup.

Their PP was built around 3 RH shots and play flowing through 2 high end puck distributors on the RW side of the ice. You always had to respect 3 one-timers which makes it harder to commit to a passing lane. All the pieces physically fit.

 

[Gurglesons]

i only have three issues with Letang right now:

1) his first step looks like he's in cement.
2) he's been waiting himself into pressure (ie he'll have the puck and no one around him, then he waits so long a forward gets there, and then he makes a lazy backhand pass)
3) his double, triple, quadruple pumping on shots.

My biggest problem with Letang is playing him 25-28 minutes a night at 32 to prove management right about Jack Johnson.