Prospect Info: Cole Caufield II (Montreal 15th overall in 2019 draft) mod warning # 560

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by Lafleurs Guy, Jun 23, 2019.

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How many goals will Caufield score in the 3 development camp scrimmages?

Poll closed Jul 10, 2019.
  1. 0

    7.6%
  2. 1 - 3

    28.0%
  3. 4 - 6

    23.6%
  4. 7 - 9

    7.6%
  5. 10+

    33.1%
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  1. JAPPO

    JAPPO previously Goalchenyuk

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    :laugh: well , it's embarrassing but i had in mind the accuracy of Raymond Bourque who was able to do 4/4 . That said , if you give me 25 shouts , i will touch the 4 too
     
  2. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

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    I would wait and see how his season goes and then decide if they should sign him. I don't see us making the playoffs baring any big changes to the lineup so no need to rush him to the NHL and burn a year off his ELC imo.
     
  3. Andrei79

    Andrei79 Registered User

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    I don't know why you're still on about this. They had a maximum of 8 shots, not 25. The players see the All Star games as a joke. Half of them are hungover, sometimes they're drunk. They do it under the eyes of 20 000 fans cold and without the focus of a real game.

    You're just grossly underestimating how good these guys are. The average 4th liner is ridiculously skilled. Two of my buddies were high end NCAA players, one who was drafted and played AHL a bit. They're ridiculously good and basically score at will, yet no where near as good as NHLers. Take even fringe guys like Jordan Weal - he scored 116 points in the WHL. The issue for most of them is they dont have the time/space.
     
  4. Estimated_Prophet

    Estimated_Prophet Registered User

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    I agree with the latter half of the post but I don't get the prostitute/blueline correlation. Seems like a non sequitur........
     
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  5. Le Tricolore

    Le Tricolore Boo! BOOOO!

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    If it'd help the team this year then you do it. You wouldn't not play a kid who can help your team today because it means he'd be eligible for free agency in seven years instead of eight.
     
  6. Frozenice

    Frozenice the random dude

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    Help us do what, exactly? Caufield isn’t the difference between us being a bubble playoff team and a contender, especially him as a 19 year old.

    I happen to think he’ll want to cash in big time coming off his ELC, at least if he has 3 years in the NHL instead of 2 years, we’ll have a better idea of what we’re signing up for.
     
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  7. Favster

    Favster Registered User

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    This happens way too often on these boards. I shared the ice with Alex Bolduc (career AHL'er) and Mark Hurtubise (SEL) and there's just nothing you can do. If they tried it would actually be dangerous lol. The level NHL'ers are at is just something some people on these boards don't understand. The level is so high now you need skill to create a lane, to make a basic pass.
     
  8. HabsMD97

    HabsMD97 Registered User

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    let's not forget this one



    truth is average-below average and bad goals are given up every.single.night in the nhl. And remember the bourque goal in 2013 playoffs was against an unbeatable craig anderson who was stopping everything the habs were throwing at him.
     
  9. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    Ive played with a few Q plugs myself and a few Q stars and I can agree with this. Just absolutely ridiculous.


    2013
     
  10. LaP

    LaP Registered User

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    It's true. But no players can score them on a regular basis unless their name is Ovechkin. He's one of the very few guys i've seen in my life who constantly make goalies look bad from outside the high danger zone. For the most part those goals happen randomly and it's hard for a player to get more than a few unless they are in an outlier season with an unusual PDO. Players who score a lot of goals at the NHL level usually do it by shooting more than others and from better positions.
     
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  11. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    And this is exactly what Caufield does. Hes a volume shooter but hes also a shot picker because hes so smart. Hell probably average 300 shots over his career and his shooting percentage will over around 12%.

    Ovi averages about 370 and has a 13% percentage.
     
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  12. Zaide

    Zaide 마지막처럼

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    Getting a bit of topic with this discussion, but anyways.

    The more something is related to individual ability, the less variance (when looking at the set of all players in the league) you should expect from Period N to Period N+1, from teammates changes, from coaching changes, etc. This is also inherently linked to predictability. As I implied, 5v5 metrics involve less variance from Period N to Period N+1 than PP metrics. This doesn't mean that PP does not involve any individual ability, nor that 5v5 only involves individual ability. What this means is that if you want to predict Period N+1 metrics using Period N, you'll get better success predicting 5v5 metrics than predicting PP metrics. Therefore, by giving more importance to 5v5 metrics in predicting models, you'll perform better in your prediction endeavours.

    The other reasoning you mention regarding 5v5 is one that is also valid in a way, and more commonly used because it's repeated ad nauseam by lots of people. While the per minute impact of 5v5 is lesser than that of PP or PK, the fact it's the situation most of the game is played at makes it the most important situation. That's why you're much more likely to see a good 5v5/bad PP team do better than a bad 5v5/good (even great) PP team. Correlating 5v5 goal differential, PP goals for, and PK goals against with wins or total points support this statement.

    Don't get me wrong though, as I'm fully aware exceptions happen. This is an inherent flaw of common statistics, in that basic or even advanced statistics models or machine learning models will perform worse the farther you get from the mean of the distribution you are analysing.

    Regarding predictiveness, there are several aspects you can attempt to predict, such as individual performance, impact on teammates, or team performance. And for each, there's a lot of things that can be predicted, whether it be individual goal scoring, overall game impact, individual points, defensive impact, etc. The thing is that it's true that predictiveness is something advanced stats struggle with - but it also happens to be what anything (eye test, basic stats alone, etc.) struggle with. There is no denying that hockey is a fast paced game that involves many components which each have a small impact and might be hard to predict. It also involves a lot of unpredictable factors, such as coaching, impact from teammates, injuries, aging (both in progression and regression), etc. I remember reading an article that concluded the highest success rate in predicting just game outcomes (win or lose) one could attain on a constant basis is about 65%, and we still haven't reached this end goal.

    Despite that, models that use advanced statistics to improve on those that use basic statistics only fare better. You're going to be more successful, for instance, at predicting Period N+1 iGF using Period N iGF and ixGF than using only Period N iGF. He stopped doing this, but Manny from Corsica used to have a "models tournament" up until 1-2 years ago, and several models got about 58-59% success rate, which is really good. For info, the baseline (always picking the home team) yields about a 55% success rate. It's almost impossible to get the same set of data from "hockey experts", but I'm ready to bet they do not perform much better than 58-59%, if they even perform at that rate. There's still a lot of improvement to be done, obviously, which will come as technologies improve.
     
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  13. BehindTheTimes

    BehindTheTimes Registered User

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    Tell that to Mario Lemieux.
     
  14. Kotkaniemi15

    Kotkaniemi15 Registered User

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    How many goals do you think Caufield scores in 20-21? I think he could score 30 his rookie year.
     
  15. BehindTheTimes

    BehindTheTimes Registered User

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    I'm thinking 93, probably gets 50 in 34games.
     
  16. peate

    peate Good grief!

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    You know what they say about records. :laugh:
     
  17. Kudo Shinichi

    Kudo Shinichi Registered User

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    No point in doing so when we have Suzuki in the ahl
     
  18. habergeon

    habergeon Registered User

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    What I love about Caufield is his play on the half boards on the power play, similar to Ovi. Not only can he shoot and score from here, he stretches the PK causing all kinds of problem in the slot for coverage.

    Evert time I see this kid play I am more happy with this pick.
     
  19. Frozenice

    Frozenice the random dude

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    That’s why Caufield needs an elite playmaking centre to play with.

    It will be the difference between him being a 45 goal scorer vs a 35 goal scorer or a 50 goal scorer vs a 40 goal scorer or a 40 goal scorer vs a 30 goal scorer, depending of course on how well his skills translates to the NHL just on the number of shots.
     
  20. webersshot

    webersshot Registered User

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    Just seen an article pop up on twitter that Caufield took french lessons when he was 12 because he predicted he would be a hab one day....whaaaaaat? Lol
     
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  21. TheDogCerby

    TheDogCerby Registered User

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    Cole Caufield: Fortune Teller and Natural Goal-Scorer

     
  22. philipsson

    philipsson Registered User

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    Because the time taken to hit the 4 targets were the tiebreaker. He did it quicker than others.
     
  23. beowulf

    beowulf Not a nice guy.

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    I'm wondering how true it is what the Habs put out yesterday about him learning French starting at age 12 because he wanted to play with the Habs one day. If true, always nice to have a player that wants to be with the team.
     
  24. angusyoung

    angusyoung Registered User

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    A little hard to believe something like that,nice if true,but dubious to say the least.
     
  25. beowulf

    beowulf Not a nice guy.

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    Take it for what it's worth...

    Truth be told, the 18-year-old American was ready to don a Canadiens jersey for quite some time. That's why he didn't choose to study Spanish in school like the rest of his friends.
    "Our two boys [Cole and his older brother, Brock] chose a French class when they were in Grade 7. They said that if they were drafted by the Canadiens, they'd have to be able to speak the language. They were always joking about it, but they were still preparing themselves in case it happened," explained Cole's mother, Kelly, with a laugh. "They ended up taking four years of French. It's funny because all of their friends chose a Spanish class. You could say that my boys kind of predicted the future."

    Cole Caufield: Fortune Teller and Natural Goal-Scorer

    Now that I found the whole article it was a sort of "just in case" thing.
     
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