Prospect Info: Cole Caufield II (Montreal 15th overall in 2019 draft) mod warning # 560

[ZUKI]

It was speed based and how many attempts. Some years he went 4/4, 4/6, 4/7 etc, but almost all players hit all the targets.

I'm surprised this needs to be explained.

You know each player doesn't get just 4 shots, right?

well , it's embarrassing but i had in mind the accuracy of Raymond Bourque who was able to do 4/4 . That said , if you give me 25 shouts , i will touch the 4 too

 

[montreal]

I would wait and see how his season goes and then decide if they should sign him. I don't see us making the playoffs baring any big changes to the lineup so no need to rush him to the NHL and burn a year off his ELC imo.

 

[Andrei79]

well , it's embarrassing but i had in mind the accuracy of Raymond Bourque who was able to do 4/4 . That said , if you give me 25 shouts , i will touch the 4 too

I don't know why you're still on about this. They had a maximum of 8 shots, not 25. The players see the All Star games as a joke. Half of them are hungover, sometimes they're drunk. They do it under the eyes of 20 000 fans cold and without the focus of a real game.

You're just grossly underestimating how good these guys are. The average 4th liner is ridiculously skilled. Two of my buddies were high end NCAA players, one who was drafted and played AHL a bit. They're ridiculously good and basically score at will, yet no where near as good as NHLers. Take even fringe guys like Jordan Weal - he scored 116 points in the WHL. The issue for most of them is they dont have the time/space.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Whomever said that hasn't watched hockey.

Dmen give up the blue line easier than a prostitute and goalies go down faster than them. Goaltending is percentages + skill. Harder to hit the top of the net.

Caufield can pick the **** with ease and could be a high end deadly shooter in the NHL.

I agree with the latter half of the post but I don't get the prostitute/blueline correlation. Seems like a non sequitur........

 

[Le Tricolore]

Why should we burn a year off his ELC for no reason, other then so he can become a UFA a year earlier and depart for distant shores sooner?

If it'd help the team this year then you do it. You wouldn't not play a kid who can help your team today because it means he'd be eligible for free agency in seven years instead of eight.

 

[Frozenice]

If it'd help the team this year then you do it. You wouldn't not play a kid who can help your team today because it means he'd be eligible for free agency in seven years instead of eight.

Help us do what, exactly? Caufield isn’t the difference between us being a bubble playoff team and a contender, especially him as a 19 year old.

I happen to think he’ll want to cash in big time coming off his ELC, at least if he has 3 years in the NHL instead of 2 years, we’ll have a better idea of what we’re signing up for.

 

[Favster]

I don't know why you're still on about this. They had a maximum of 8 shots, not 25. The players see the All Star games as a joke. Half of them are hungover, sometimes they're drunk. They do it under the eyes of 20 000 fans cold and without the focus of a real game.

You're just grossly underestimating how good these guys are. The average 4th liner is ridiculously skilled. Two of my buddies were high end NCAA players, one who was drafted and played AHL a bit. They're ridiculously good and basically score at will, yet no where near as good as NHLers. Take even fringe guys like Jordan Weal - he scored 116 points in the WHL. The issue for most of them is they dont have the time/space.

This happens way too often on these boards. I shared the ice with Alex Bolduc (career AHL'er) and Mark Hurtubise (SEL) and there's just nothing you can do. If they tried it would actually be dangerous lol. The level NHL'ers are at is just something some people on these boards don't understand. The level is so high now you need skill to create a lane, to make a basic pass.

 

[HabsMD97]

Cole Caufield will never score in the NHL 'cause d-men in the NHL do not let goal scorers room to score, and goalies will not be on their knees giving the top shelf to goal scorers. Exemple 1 out of 1000...

let's not forget this one



truth is average-below average and bad goals are given up every.single.night in the nhl. And remember the bourque goal in 2013 playoffs was against an unbeatable craig anderson who was stopping everything the habs were throwing at him.

 

[Mrb1p]

This happens way too often on these boards. I shared the ice with Alex Bolduc (career AHL'er) and Mark Hurtubise (SEL) and there's just nothing you can do. If they tried it would actually be dangerous lol. The level NHL'ers are at is just something some people on these boards don't understand. The level is so high now you need skill to create a lane, to make a basic pass.

Ive played with a few Q plugs myself and a few Q stars and I can agree with this. Just absolutely ridiculous.

let's not forget this one



truth is average-below average and bad goals are given up every.single.night in the nhl. And remember the bourque goal in 2013 playoffs was against an unbeatable craig anderson who was stopping everything the habs were throwing at him.

2013

 

[LaP]

let's not forget this one



truth is average-below average and bad goals are given up every.single.night in the nhl. And remember the bourque goal in 2013 playoffs was against an unbeatable craig anderson who was stopping everything the habs were throwing at him.

It's true. But no players can score them on a regular basis unless their name is Ovechkin. He's one of the very few guys i've seen in my life who constantly make goalies look bad from outside the high danger zone. For the most part those goals happen randomly and it's hard for a player to get more than a few unless they are in an outlier season with an unusual PDO. Players who score a lot of goals at the NHL level usually do it by shooting more than others and from better positions.

 

[Mrb1p]

It's true. But no players can score them on a regular basis unless their name is Ovechkin. He's one of the very few guys i've seen in my life who constantly make goalies look bad from outside the high danger zone. For the most part those goals happen randomly and it's hard for a player to get more than a few unless they are in an outlier season with an unusual PDO. Players who score a lot of goals at the NHL level usually do it by shooting more than others and from better positions.

And this is exactly what Caufield does. Hes a volume shooter but hes also a shot picker because hes so smart. Hell probably average 300 shots over his career and his shooting percentage will over around 12%.

Ovi averages about 370 and has a 13% percentage.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Predictive of what? All play? I don't think so and I've seen anything showing as much. Most of the support for using 5 on 5 stats has been fairly ad hoc reasoning: ''the game is played 5 on 5'' for example. PP ability is a skill. There may be greater variance in PP metrics, but that's not quite the same thing as it not being as predictive.

Interestingly, predictiveness is what advanced stats in hockey most struggles with.

Getting a bit of topic with this discussion, but anyways.

The more something is related to individual ability, the less variance (when looking at the set of all players in the league) you should expect from Period N to Period N+1, from teammates changes, from coaching changes, etc. This is also inherently linked to predictability. As I implied, 5v5 metrics involve less variance from Period N to Period N+1 than PP metrics. This doesn't mean that PP does not involve any individual ability, nor that 5v5 only involves individual ability. What this means is that if you want to predict Period N+1 metrics using Period N, you'll get better success predicting 5v5 metrics than predicting PP metrics. Therefore, by giving more importance to 5v5 metrics in predicting models, you'll perform better in your prediction endeavours.

The other reasoning you mention regarding 5v5 is one that is also valid in a way, and more commonly used because it's repeated ad nauseam by lots of people. While the per minute impact of 5v5 is lesser than that of PP or PK, the fact it's the situation most of the game is played at makes it the most important situation. That's why you're much more likely to see a good 5v5/bad PP team do better than a bad 5v5/good (even great) PP team. Correlating 5v5 goal differential, PP goals for, and PK goals against with wins or total points support this statement.

Don't get me wrong though, as I'm fully aware exceptions happen. This is an inherent flaw of common statistics, in that basic or even advanced statistics models or machine learning models will perform worse the farther you get from the mean of the distribution you are analysing.

Regarding predictiveness, there are several aspects you can attempt to predict, such as individual performance, impact on teammates, or team performance. And for each, there's a lot of things that can be predicted, whether it be individual goal scoring, overall game impact, individual points, defensive impact, etc. The thing is that it's true that predictiveness is something advanced stats struggle with - but it also happens to be what anything (eye test, basic stats alone, etc.) struggle with. There is no denying that hockey is a fast paced game that involves many components which each have a small impact and might be hard to predict. It also involves a lot of unpredictable factors, such as coaching, impact from teammates, injuries, aging (both in progression and regression), etc. I remember reading an article that concluded the highest success rate in predicting just game outcomes (win or lose) one could attain on a constant basis is about 65%, and we still haven't reached this end goal.

Despite that, models that use advanced statistics to improve on those that use basic statistics only fare better. You're going to be more successful, for instance, at predicting Period N+1 iGF using Period N iGF and ixGF than using only Period N iGF. He stopped doing this, but Manny from Corsica used to have a "models tournament" up until 1-2 years ago, and several models got about 58-59% success rate, which is really good. For info, the baseline (always picking the home team) yields about a 55% success rate. It's almost impossible to get the same set of data from "hockey experts", but I'm ready to bet they do not perform much better than 58-59%, if they even perform at that rate. There's still a lot of improvement to be done, obviously, which will come as technologies improve.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Forgot to specify 5v5, sorry.

That said, in all situations, he's still 1st in the leagues in rates (iCF/60, iFF/60 and iSF/60) by still a considerable amount.

The reason advanced stats people far prefer 5v5 over anything else is because 5v5 play is far more representative of a player's individual "talent" (and therefore more predictive predictive) than non-5v5 play, in that, for instance, PP and PK play is more impacted by a team's system and the combination of all players on the ice. It's not because it's not important - Hell, a metric like WAR puts a lot of emphasis on PP and PK contribution.

Tell that to Mario Lemieux.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

How many goals do you think Caufield scores in 20-21? I think he could score 30 his rookie year.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

How many goals do you think Caufield scores in 20-21? I think he could score 30 his rookie year.

I'm thinking 93, probably gets 50 in 34games.

 

[peate]

I'm thinking 93, probably gets 50 in 34games.

You know what they say about records.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

If it'd help the team this year then you do it. You wouldn't not play a kid who can help your team today because it means he'd be eligible for free agency in seven years instead of eight.

No point in doing so when we have Suzuki in the ahl

 

[habergeon]

And this is exactly what Caufield does. Hes a volume shooter but hes also a shot picker because hes so smart. Hell probably average 300 shots over his career and his shooting percentage will over around 12%.

Ovi averages about 370 and has a 13% percentage.

What I love about Caufield is his play on the half boards on the power play, similar to Ovi. Not only can he shoot and score from here, he stretches the PK causing all kinds of problem in the slot for coverage.

Evert time I see this kid play I am more happy with this pick.

 

[Frozenice]

And this is exactly what Caufield does. Hes a volume shooter but hes also a shot picker because hes so smart. Hell probably average 300 shots over his career and his shooting percentage will over around 12%.

Ovi averages about 370 and has a 13% percentage.

That’s why Caufield needs an elite playmaking centre to play with.

It will be the difference between him being a 45 goal scorer vs a 35 goal scorer or a 50 goal scorer vs a 40 goal scorer or a 40 goal scorer vs a 30 goal scorer, depending of course on how well his skills translates to the NHL just on the number of shots.

 

[webersshot]

Just seen an article pop up on twitter that Caufield took french lessons when he was 12 because he predicted he would be a hab one day....whaaaaaat? Lol

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Just seen an article pop up on twitter that Caufield took french lessons when he was 12 because he predicted he would be a hab one day....whaaaaaat? Lol

Cole Caufield: Fortune Teller and Natural Goal-Scorer

"Our two boys [Cole and his older brother, Brock] chose a French class when they were in Grade 7. They said that if they were drafted by the Canadiens, they'd have to be able to speak the language. They were always joking about it, but they were still preparing themselves in case it happened,"

 

[philipsson]

how did he win it if almost all of the players hit all 4 targets ? almost all the players were co-winners ?

Because the time taken to hit the 4 targets were the tiebreaker. He did it quicker than others.

 

[beowulf]

I'm wondering how true it is what the Habs put out yesterday about him learning French starting at age 12 because he wanted to play with the Habs one day. If true, always nice to have a player that wants to be with the team.

 

[angusyoung]

I'm wondering how true it is what the Habs put out yesterday about him learning French starting at age 12 because he wanted to play with the Habs one day. If true, always nice to have a player that wants to be with the team.

A little hard to believe something like that,nice if true,but dubious to say the least.

 

[beowulf]

A little hard to believe something like that,nice if true,but dubious to say the least.

Take it for what it's worth...

Truth be told, the 18-year-old American was ready to don a Canadiens jersey for quite some time. That's why he didn't choose to study Spanish in school like the rest of his friends.
"Our two boys [Cole and his older brother, Brock] chose a French class when they were in Grade 7. They said that if they were drafted by the Canadiens, they'd have to be able to speak the language. They were always joking about it, but they were still preparing themselves in case it happened," explained Cole's mother, Kelly, with a laugh. "They ended up taking four years of French. It's funny because all of their friends chose a Spanish class. You could say that my boys kind of predicted the future."

Cole Caufield: Fortune Teller and Natural Goal-Scorer

Now that I found the whole article it was a sort of "just in case" thing.