Proposal: Col/Mtl around Drouin for Byram

[WingsMJN2965]

Skinner is a horrible example and I told you the reasons. Try again. This is not really about Drouin vs Byram. This conversation is about one team trading a proven NHL talent heading into their prime with term for a prospect who has not turned pro yet.

Talk to me when you find a good trade example we can measure against.

Hang on, let me repeat:

You were given an example with Skinner. It's not my fault you want to whine about the small details because it doesn't fit your narrative, and I'm not wasting my time seeking out more examples if you're gonna reject them over something petty. Drouin isn't worth Byram. Get over it.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

You mean like Kotkaniemi or Zadina? Byram is a good prospect no doubt. I think you are too negative towards Drouin to be honest. Risk management is a two way street

Nobody in their right mind would trade a Zadina or Kotkaniemi for Drouin. So yes, that's exactly what he means.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Statistically? Yes. I expect these are Mackinnons best offensive years.

I really don’t imagine him getting better than he is from a statistical standpoint. He may improve as an overall player, refine his defensive skills, faceoffs, etc. But I don’t expect his offensive numbers to get better.

Have some kind of source of this 25-30 range?

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

Elite level players have primes that start early. Guys like Drouin are 2nd tier top 6 talent and their primes don't start at 22 (Usually 24/25 - 30/31 range). You are basically saying MacKinnon's prime ends next year. That's BS man. I don't need to look into that any further.

Call it a disagreement. No need to beat each other up any further

 

[Habs Halifax]

Nobody in their right mind would trade a Zadina or Kotkaniemi for Drouin. So yes, that's exactly what he means.

Talk to me when you find a past trade example we can measure against. Skinner is not a good example. Stop moving the conversation

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Talk to me when you find a past trade example we can measure against. Skinner is not a good example. Stop moving the conversation

I didn't move the conversation, I replied to that post and this one.

Talk to me when you can come up with somebody Drouin is worth. Because Byram, Kotkaniemi, and Zadina aren't it.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

My point is risks works two ways. You are acting like Drouin will not mature and grow in his prime while Byram is a sure shot top pairing D. I'm fully aware of Drouin's strengths and flaws. The kid needs to play with a real top 2C before you realize his true potential. Byram is a very very good prospect who has not turned pro yet.

This type of trade is rare. Very rare. That's my point. It's not a one way street. Your Zadina comment does not help this conversation either way. Drouin was off to a great start this year before that injury.

And here I thought that I'm acting like Drouin is a 24 year old, 6th year pro with a career high 53 points who has already been traded once for attitude issues. The likelihood of him reaching his true potential isn't very high at this point, and I don't think many rational people would bet much on his ability to "mature and grow in his prime". At this point, his value probably isn't that much higher than Galchenyuk's, and he just got packaged with a 1st round pick for a rental.

On the other hand, Byram is an 18 year old defenseman with top pairing potential. Sure, there's some risk that he won't reach his potential, but I think every GM in the league would happily take that risk.

 

[Habs Halifax]

And here I thought that I'm acting like Drouin is a 24 year old, 6th year pro with a career high 53 points who has already been traded one for attitude issues. The likelihood of him reaching his true potential isn't very high at this point, and I don't think many rational people would bet much on his ability to "mature and grow in his prime". At this point, his value probably isn't that much higher than Galchenyuk's, and he just got packaged with a 1st round pick for a rental.

On the other hand, Byram is an 18 year old defenseman with top pairing potential. Sure, there's some risk that he won't reach his potential, but I think every GM in the league would happily take that risk.

So you admit, there is risk to both sides? You say the risks are higher towards the Avs? Sure, not going to argue too much about that. I think you get my point now though. Lets remember this one and bring it back in terms of evaluation... in lets say 3 or 4 years time? Byram will be 21/22 and Drouin will be 27/28. I'd be curious to see how it looks then

 

[Number 204]

just ever no

 

[WingsMJN2965]

So you admit, there is risk to both sides? You say the risks are higher towards the Avs? Sure, not going to argue too much about that. I think you get my point now though. Lets remember this one and bring it back in terms of evaluation... in lets say 3 or 4 years time? Byram will be 21/22 and Drouin will be 27/28. I'd be curious to see how it looks then

What happened to, "Our" point... I thought you had a band of people all supporting your in your argument.

Still waiting to hear about how everybody would be lining up to trade Zadina or Kotkaniemi for Drouin.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Drouin can get us By, or Ram, but not the whole package.

 

[Sniper99]

No Drouin + doesnt get you Byram. Good try though

 

[Habs Halifax]

What happened to, "Our" point... I thought you had a band of people all supporting your in your argument.

Still waiting to hear about how everybody would be lining up to trade Zadina or Kotkaniemi for Drouin.

I wasn't talking to you. Why should I answer your question when you didn't answer mine? Wait, you still think Skinner trade was a good example eh? Sure. Time to move bud. Only a grudge match at this stage.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Elite level players have primes that start early. Guys like Drouin are 2nd tier top 6 talent and their primes don't start at 22 (Usually 24/25 - 30/31 range). You are basically saying MacKinnon's prime ends next year. That's BS man. I don't need to look into that any further.

Call it a disagreement. No need to beat each other up any further

Wow. As usual, just impossible to discuss with you.

Statiscally, a players prime appears to be 22-25. Not EVERY PLAYER IS THE SAME. It’s a general rule of thumb. You keep repeating the same thing without any actual evidence or proof.

There’s nothing BS about stating that Mackinnon is likely having the best offensive seasons right now, and possibly for a year or 2. That doesn’t imply he’s falling off a cliff after that. Just means that he’s likely stringing the best 4 year sequence of his career right now.

Will he match those numbers in the future, possible, even likely. But string 3-4 top of the league seasons in a row, is unlikely.

And since Drouin is not in the elite category, he’s even more likely to fit into the curve. Players in their early to mid 20s are in peak physical condition. That’s why they seem to statistically have their best seasons. He’s 6 seasons in. He’s not a late bloomer who’s just entering the NHl. Drouin should be peaking now.

You’re still stuck in the past looking at 28-29-30 year olds having their peak level of sustained play.

Again, what’s your source?

Here’s more for me: When hockey players peak, decline, and hit their prime

 

[Habs Halifax]

Wow. As usual, just impossible to discuss with you.

Statiscally, a players prime appears to be 22-25. Not EVERY PLAYER IS THE SAME. It’s a general rule of thumb. You keep repeating the same thing without any actual evidence or proof.

There’s nothing BS about stating that Mackinnon is likely having the best offensive seasons right now, and possibly for a year or 2. That doesn’t imply he’s falling off a cliff after that. Just means that he’s likely stringing the best 4 year sequence of his career right now.

Will he match those numbers in the future, possible, even likely. But string 3-4 top of the league seasons in a row, is unlikely.

And since Drouin is not in the elite category, he’s even more likely to fit into the curve. Players in their early to mid 20s are in peak physical condition. That’s why they seem to statistically have their best seasons. He’s 6 seasons in. He’s not a late bloomer who’s just entering the NHl. Drouin should be peaking now.

You’re still stuck in the past looking at 28-29-30 year olds having their peak level of sustained play.

Again, what’s your source?

Here’s more for me: When hockey players peak, decline, and hit their prime

We don't agree. You want to flame it up now? Make it 3 times if you wish. There is nothing more you can say to change my mind and vice versa. Why bother go any further?

 

[Drew311]

Disagree. Defensemen are astronomically more valuable than wingers - wingers are the least valuable position in hockey. And as Sakic has previously said, the only way you can get young, top-4 defensemen is by drafting them yourself. If Byram goes for a winger, it will be for a winger that is in multiple tiers above where the Avs believe Byram will end up.

Seth Jones, Brandon Montour, Henri Jokiharju, Adam Larsson, Sami Vatanen, Nick Leddy, Marcus Pettersson, Mikhail Sergachev.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So you admit, there is risk to both sides? You say the risks are higher towards the Avs? Sure, not going to argue too much about that. I think you get my point now though. Lets remember this one and bring it back in terms of evaluation... in lets say 3 or 4 years time? Byram will be 21/22 and Drouin will be 27/28. I'd be curious to see how it looks then

Care to quote me saying that there isn't risk on both sides, because I don't remember ever making that claim.

There's risk in literally everything, but that doesn't mean that all risks are equal. Investing in mutual funds and playing the lottery both have some degree of risk, but I'm pretty sure that if I put my money in mutual funds, I'm significantly more likely to make money in the long run than if I buy lottery tickets. That doesn't mean that lottery tickets can't possibly win, just that they are much less likely to do so.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Seth Jones, Brandon Montour, Henri Jokiharju, Adam Larsson, Sami Vatanen, Nick Leddy, Marcus Pettersson, Mikhail Sergachev.

Or suckering a dumb GM into it if you're lucky. To be fair, most of those guys are pretty meh. Jones Pettersson and Sergachev are good tho

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Seth Jones, Brandon Montour, Henri Jokiharju, Adam Larsson, Sami Vatanen, Nick Leddy, Marcus Pettersson, Mikhail Sergachev.

Can you do the list of the young 4 D who still play for the team that drafted them? I'm guessing there might be more than 8 names on that list...

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I wasn't talking to you. Why should I answer your question when you didn't answer mine? Wait, you still think Skinner trade was a good example eh? Sure. Time to move bud. Only a grudge match at this stage.

I answered your question. Not my problem that you refuse the answer because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Now you're just hiding behind it at this point because you don't want to acknowledge that your 2nd point is even more ridiculous.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Seth Jones, Brandon Montour, Henri Jokiharju, Adam Larsson, Sami Vatanen, Nick Leddy, Marcus Pettersson, Mikhail Sergachev.

The only ones you listed that have anywhere remotely close to the current value of Byram at the times of their trades are Jones and Sergachev. The others don't apply.

Jones was traded for a 1C, or what was believed to be a 1C, so unless Montreal is sending a 1C over, they're not getting Byram. Sergachev was traded because Bergevin is not a good GM. That trade has been lambasted many times on this site and if Sakic were to do something like that for Byram, I would consider him almost as bad as Bergevin.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

The only ones you listed that have anywhere remotely close to the current value of Byram at the times of their trades are Jones and Sergachev. The others don't apply.

Jones was traded for a 1C, or what was believed to be a 1C, so unless Montreal is sending a 1C over, they're not getting Byram. Sergachev was traded because Bergevin is not a good GM. That trade has been lambasted many times on this site and if Sakic were to do something like that for Byram, I would consider him almost as bad as Bergevin.

Say what you want about Bergevin but he made the following recent trades and signings:

Acquired Armia + 4th by taking on Mason (1 year capdump)
Acquired Tatar + Suzuki + 2nd for MaxPac
Acquired Weber for Subban
Acquired Domi for Galchenyuk
Signed Kovalchuk for peanuts
Signed Chariot on a great contract

That's a pretty good track record.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Say what you want about Bergevin but he made the following recent trades and signings:

Acquired Armia + 4th by taking on Mason (1 year capdump)
Acquired Tatar + Suzuki + 2nd for MaxPac
Acquired Weber for Subban
Acquired Domi for Galchenyuk
Signed Kovalchuk for peanuts
Signed Chariot on a great contract

That's a pretty good track record.

That's lovely, but this thread is about Byram potentially being dealt to Montreal, not about Bergevin. I only brought him up because one of the comparables for Byram was traded by him. This thread does not need to become a bash/defend Bergevin thread.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

I’m probably one of Drouins biggest critics but he actually showed up to play this season and was putting in the effort on both sides of the puck til he got injured. Having said that I don’t see him returning a guy like Byram. Domi maybe but not JD.

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

"Good contract". He's 24 with a career high of 21 goals, 53 pts. He's broken 20 goals once in his career, 2 seasons ago. He's never played all 82 games. He's not renowned for any particular defensive ability. And people still talk about him like he's a 30 goal/70 point guy. He's shown what he is and he's marginally above replacement level. In addition to which, he doesn't fill any need for the Avs. Remember what the Avs paid for Burakovsky? The guy who's outscoring Drouin? What makes Drouin worth more than that?

Yeah yeah yeah the stats, if he was a line carrier,why in the hell would Mtl trade him.

He will never be the player some ppl thought he could be but yes 5.5 millions is a good contract for someone who put -/+ 60 points on a team like Mtl, I'm pretty sure we look at a 70-80 points player with Mackinnon.

Why judge a player with his point total... I guess u didn't care about the fact that they tried him at center the first season

 

[Number 204]

oh