Confirmed with Link: Cody Ceci signed by Edmonton (4 years @3.25mil)

McShogun99

Registered User
Aug 30, 2009
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No, you just showed your lack of understanding for how pairings are played at even strength.

ADA will get most of the ozone starts and PP time. Pesce will get most of the D and neutral zone draws and 1st PK. Bear will get the rest of the minutes and 2nd PK unit. To me those are third pairing minutes since you already have your main O and D zone defensive pairings. Would you put Bear over Pesce in the D zone or would you put Bear over ADA in the O zone?
 

ottawah

Registered User
Jan 7, 2011
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605
...what?

You literally just wrote that Ceci played against weaker competition than his teammates while allowing more goals against/60.

"Every D man playing with him had a tougher QOC than without him. Every D man playing with him had a lower goals against per 60 than without him."

The first part specifically says that when another D played as his partner they faced tougher competition than when they played without him. The second part specifically says that when a D man played with Ceci, their GA/60 was lower than when they played without him.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,538
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AdA is absolutely atrocious defending in his own zone. He's going to be getting sheltered af minutes and powerplay time (similar to what we wish we could do with Barrie).
I find that Bear's ability to defend always got a tad overrated. He was great at breaking up zone entries with possession against opponents that didn't have a ton of speed. And he's good at disrupting NZ transition. But in the DZ he never really had a great knack for controlling bodies down low. He's small, slow and had a tendency to get overwhelmed when pressured. Though he possesses a pretty strong breakout pass.

Guys like Barrie and ADA possess an elite forward's level of offensive awareness though, which allows them to generate shots and scoring opportunities at an exponentially higher rate than what Bear's likely to at any point in his career. And this is why I don't feel that we're likely to regret this trade any time soon.

That being said, we're in a Cody Ceci thread. I'll be cautiously optimistic he can fill many of the voids left by Adam Larsson. I have fewer doubts that Evan Bouchard can cover many of the things Bear brought to the table.
 

AM

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Nov 22, 2004
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60% D zone starts, top PK pairing, no PP time.

I guess we have a different interpretation of sheltered.




Maybe now everyone sees why he gets such a bad rap. People have been continually tearing him to threads when there simply are not underlying statistics to support what they say. No one is saying he is a top pair Dman, but the last 6 years he has played some of the roughest minutes/deployment in the league with some epically bad partners (and some good), while doing quite well in the goals against, turnovers and points.

He is going to make you shake your head a few times a game, but the vast majority of D will.
Sounds like a buy low option to me. Players that are willing to do the hard work and fill in where needed will always have “poor stats”
 

Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
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"Every D man playing with him had a tougher QOC than without him. Every D man playing with him had a lower goals against per 60 than without him."

The first part specifically says that when another D played as his partner they faced tougher competition than when they played without him. The second part specifically says that when a D man played with Ceci, their GA/60 was lower than when they played without him.
Yes, which means that Ceci was not saving his teammates so much as playing weaker competition saved them.
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
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ADA will get most of the ozone starts and PP time. Pesce will get most of the D and neutral zone draws and 1st PK. Bear will get the rest of the minutes and 2nd PK unit. To me those are third pairing minutes since you already have your main O and D zone defensive pairings. Would you put Bear over Pesce in the D zone or would you put Bear over ADA in the O zone?
Given that the majority of shifts start on the fly, you're overstating the importance of faceoffs. Further, pairings are for even strength because they're treated differently than special teams units.

Slavin-Pesce
Skjei-Bear
Cole-DeAngelo

Find the third pair.
 

McShogun99

Registered User
Aug 30, 2009
17,789
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Given that the majority of shifts start on the fly, you're overstating the importance of faceoffs. Further, pairings are for even strength because they're treated differently than special teams units.

Slavin-Pesce
Skjei-Bear
Cole-DeAngelo

Find the third pair.

I don't think you realize how good ADA actually is. He put up one of the best offensive seasons by an OHL Dman the year he was drafted and he's been over .5 PPG in the NHL, there's a reason the Rangers signed him to a 4.8 million dollar contract while Bear only got a 2 million dollar deal. Defensively, neither one is going to be out there defending a one goal lead but ADA has an elite offensive skill set which will give him good minutes. I could be wrong but I think Bear ends up as Carolina's 6/7th D this year. If he stayed in Edmonton it probably would have been the same thing.
 

Mcnotloilersfan

I'm here, I'm bored
Jul 11, 2010
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I think Hyman is a real warrior out there, but i dont see the need to improve our fw core when we arent gonna make a splash anyway, our goaltending is far from enough, Smith is 0-5 in playoff games with Oilers, a small sample but when in his age had his prime 10 years ago, makes it hard to swallow!

Against wpg, we lost to a better goalie then ours, he was average at best but had some real deciding f ups who cost us!

Even if every if on D will over achieve, its not a D you winning cup with!

Larsson is a shutdown D who can handle topminutes and he and Klefbom did it well especially 16/17 when we was a toronto call from conference final, Talbot was topnotch ,drai beasting and kassian lifted his game at playoffs.

Probably was Nurse the main reason for Larsson had a great season but i think his personal problems, played injured and that Klefbom got injured, that created a mess in our D, took almost a season to get it on right track again!

Who from our blueline chips could be ready a year from now? It isnt Broberg!

Probably Bouchard could make some impact next season, this season will be a learning process!

But we are stucked with Ceci for 4 years, no one will touch that contract if it goes south pretty fast! Keiths contract is only 2 years more.

Yes Nurse can handle Barrie 5on5 pretty well, but Keith/ Ceci must pk thats not easy minutes!

Goaltending wasn't our problem last year, it was our lack of attack.

Also, how is our defense any worse than the back-to-back cup winning teams in Pittsburgh?

Is our goaltending and defense ideal? Nah. Is it impossible to win as they are? Also nah.
 
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NoDust33

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Apr 11, 2016
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Yes, which means that Ceci was not saving his teammates so much as playing weaker competition saved them.

How is that true when teammates had lower GA playing better competition when partnered with Ceci, than without Ceci playing weaker competition?
 
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Panda Bear

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Apr 2, 2010
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"Every D man playing with him had a tougher QOC than without him. Every D man playing with him had a lower goals against per 60 than without him."

The first part specifically says that when another D played as his partner they faced tougher competition than when they played without him. The second part specifically says that when a D man played with Ceci, their GA/60 was lower than when they played without him.
Jesus Christ. I completely misread your post.
 

Oilhawks

Oden's Ride Over Nordland
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Yes, which means that Ceci was not saving his teammates so much as playing weaker competition saved them.

I was confused by the wording at first but he’s saying that Ceci’s partners faced weaker competition away from Ceci and payed tougher competition with him. These partners also had a lower GA/60 with Ceci than when they played with another D partner
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
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I was confused by the wording at first but he’s saying that Ceci’s partners faced weaker competition away from Ceci and payed tougher competition with him. These partners also had a lower GA/60 with Ceci than when they played with another D partner
Yup. That'll learn me to read things while literally falling asleep and then doubling down when I wake up in the morning.
 

McClelland

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Aug 2, 2011
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Goaltending wasn't our problem last year, it was our lack of attack.

Also, how is our defense any worse than the back-to-back cup winning teams in Pittsburgh?

Is our goaltending and defense ideal? Nah. Is it impossible to win as they are? Also nah.

Well, atleast Pitts had a stud D, Nurse hasnt reach that level yet, and its not only D who defends, yes our D is much worse then Pitts winning teams.

And no, you cant win any cups with Smith as a starter 0-5 with Oilers in playoffs and koski as a backup, history has showed that you need elite goaltending to go far, a vintage Price took Habs to cupfinal and he got outplayed by vasi in the finals!

Our RhD can not defend, its 2019 Leafs RhD 1 and 2, and that stunk. And Bouchard 3rd pairing needs sheltered minutes!

Nurse cant nursing all 3!

Only wait for spring 2022, then we have all answers!
 

Oilhawks

Oden's Ride Over Nordland
Nov 24, 2011
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Yup. That'll learn me to read things while literally falling asleep and then doubling down when I wake up in the morning.

To be fair it confused me at first as well. I had to read it a couple times to figure it out, I was also sleepy when I read it :ha:
 

Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
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I find that Bear's ability to defend always got a tad overrated. He was great at breaking up zone entries with possession against opponents that didn't have a ton of speed. And he's good at disrupting NZ transition. But in the DZ he never really had a great knack for controlling bodies down low. He's small, slow and had a tendency to get overwhelmed when pressured. Though he possesses a pretty strong breakout pass.

Guys like Barrie and ADA possess an elite forward's level of offensive awareness though, which allows them to generate shots and scoring opportunities at an exponentially higher rate than what Bear's likely to at any point in his career. And this is why I don't feel that we're likely to regret this trade any time soon.

That being said, we're in a Cody Ceci thread. I'll be cautiously optimistic he can fill many of the voids left by Adam Larsson. I have fewer doubts that Evan Bouchard can cover many of the things Bear brought to the table.

The craziest narrative about Barrie is that he this offensive juggernaut capable of creating tons of chances on his own. At every point in his career, forwards had better offensive results (chances genertaed, scoring rates) without Barrie on the ice, vs with him on the ice. McDavid and Draisaitl saw steep offensive declines with Barrie on the ice. Meanwhile, almost every forward did better offensively with Bear

For example, heres McDavid with and without Bear. In every category doing better with him than without

upload_2021-8-3_13-30-16.png


And in the complete opposite- here 97 doing worse in every offensive category with Barrie, and seeing better results away from Barrie

upload_2021-8-3_13-31-32.png


You can do this for almost every player and get the same results. Barrie is more akin to MAB than he is to a Karlsson (that is, he doesnt generate offense on his own and his reliant on teammates)
 

Mcnotloilersfan

I'm here, I'm bored
Jul 11, 2010
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Well, atleast Pitts had a stud D, Nurse hasnt reach that level yet, and its not only D who defends, yes our D is much worse then Pitts winning teams.

And no, you cant win any cups with Smith as a starter 0-5 with Oilers in playoffs and koski as a backup, history has showed that you need elite goaltending to go far, a vintage Price took Habs to cupfinal and he got outplayed by vasi in the finals!

Our RhD can not defend, its 2019 Leafs RhD 1 and 2, and that stunk. And Bouchard 3rd pairing needs sheltered minutes!

Nurse cant nursing all 3!

Only wait for spring 2022, then we have all answers!

Nurse is a different type of defender than Letang but in the same league. Barrie is better than Jultz too. I genuinely don't think the Pens had a better D. Plus wasn't Letang down for one of those playoff runs?
 

Panda Bear

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
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The craziest narrative about Barrie is that he this offensive juggernaut capable of creating tons of chances on his own. At every point in his career, forwards had better offensive results (chances genertaed, scoring rates) without Barrie on the ice, vs with him on the ice. McDavid and Draisaitl saw steep offensive declines with Barrie on the ice. Meanwhile, almost every forward did better offensively with Bear

For example, heres McDavid with and without Bear. In every category doing better with him than without

View attachment 459049

And in the complete opposite- here 97 doing worse in every offensive category with Barrie, and seeing better results away from Barrie

View attachment 459050

You can do this for almost every player and get the same results. Barrie is more akin to MAB than he is to a Karlsson (that is, he doesnt generate offense on his own and his reliant on teammates)
Barrie's problem is that he can't defend worth a damn, so he gets stuck in his own zone far too often.

Bear can defend, and he's better at smart zone exits than Barrie too.
 
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McClelland

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Nurse is a different type of defender than Letang but in the same league. Barrie is better than Jultz too. I genuinely don't think the Pens had a better D. Plus wasn't Letang down for one of those playoff runs?

You must go true player by player to have some idea of a team defence! They had some great goaltending though, that part you cant cheat away!

Hagelin/Bonino/kess kicked ass 1 year, Hags bonino great defensive guys too, Hags with his skating was a great pker also!

Jultz-Barrie, pretty equal, both offensive guys, but Pens found a fit for him. The C combo pretty equal!

Nurse cant Nurse 3 soft RhD!

Will will see in spring!
 

Gurglesons

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Dec 18, 2009
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last-train-tocool.blogspot.com
Goaltending wasn't our problem last year, it was our lack of attack.

Also, how is our defense any worse than the back-to-back cup winning teams in Pittsburgh?

Is our goaltending and defense ideal? Nah. Is it impossible to win as they are? Also nah.

Dumoulin - Letang
Lovejoy - Daley
Maatta - Cole

Dumoulin - Hainsey
Cole - Schultz
Maatta - Daley

Murray
Fleury

versus.

Nurse - Barrie
Keith - Ceci
Russell - Bouchard

Smith
Koskianen

I see some big difference. I'll throw out Letang and Nurse because they are two lightning rod players. I think Letang is a top 10 defenseman to this day. Not sure I have nurse that high.

Who is your Dumoulin? Olli Maatta fell off hard, but he was a top four guy during those years. Is Russell? Trevor Daley and Cody Ceci are good comparable. I don't see Keith being as good as Ian Cole was back then at this point in his career. Barrie is comparable to Schultz for PIT. Does Edmonton have the ability to use Barrie as a #7 (in 2016) and then as a #4 with extremely sheltered minutes (in 2017)?

And obviously the goaltending.

I think the big thing with the PIT b2b defense core is they fit the system and were all very good puck movers. When Olli Maatta is the worst player at moving the puck on your D, you are in aa good place.
 

NoDust33

Registered User
Apr 11, 2016
280
209
The craziest narrative about Barrie is that he this offensive juggernaut capable of creating tons of chances on his own. At every point in his career, forwards had better offensive results (chances genertaed, scoring rates) without Barrie on the ice, vs with him on the ice. McDavid and Draisaitl saw steep offensive declines with Barrie on the ice. Meanwhile, almost every forward did better offensively with Bear

For example, heres McDavid with and without Bear. In every category doing better with him than without

View attachment 459049

And in the complete opposite- here 97 doing worse in every offensive category with Barrie, and seeing better results away from Barrie

View attachment 459050

You can do this for almost every player and get the same results. Barrie is more akin to MAB than he is to a Karlsson (that is, he doesnt generate offense on his own and his reliant on teammates)

I'm just curious, do you have more context for this?

For example, was barrie with McDavid against harder competition? At what point in the season was McDavid playing with each player? Was he with Bear when they were leading/ against Ottawa? McDavids sample size with bear is pretty small and the gf% is not much higher than without Bear where the sample size is 4x larger. Edit: so if mcdavids production is about equal with bear vs without, and he produces better away from Barrie (and essentially Nurse), who was Mcdavid producing massive 5 on 5 numbers with? Larsson and the rest of the dcore?

I'm not saying this argument is invalid, but on its own those numbers don't mean a whole lot, alot more context would be needed to substantiate it.
 
Last edited:

CornKicker

Holland is wrong..except all of the good things
Feb 18, 2005
11,780
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Yup. That'll learn me to read things while literally falling asleep and then doubling down when I wake up in the morning.
i dont understand what you are doing here, i thought HF protocols were you have to dig in your heels and argue till your fingers bleed. Accountability and admitting errors just isnt the way of the board.
 

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