Clinching a Playoff Spot

[willmma]

A few games ago I was hoping we pass Boston. That dream is gone. Now I am homing we stay ahead of Montreal and to clinch a playoff spot.

The Leafs have 8 games to go. They need to earn 9 points to clinch a playoff spot (Or the Habs need to lose 9 points in their last 8 games, or a combination of leaf points gained and habs points lost that add up to 9).

Any ways I am looking at the teams we are playing in the last 8 games and their League as well as ELO rankings and adding my thoughts on those games



Leafs are playing :

Team	League Ranking	Elo Ranking	Thoughts
NYR	26	31	Rangers are a lousy team playing their worst hockey of the season. MUST WIN
FLA	20	12	Panthers are not great but they are playing better than their record. WATCH OUT
PHI	17	11	Flyers are similar to panthers. Playing better than their record. Slightly better than Panthers. WATCH OUT
OTT	31	27	Senators whooped us 6-2. Melnyk is bad mouthing us. REVENGE!!
NYI	8	24	(back to back game). Islanders are a good team, but they are playing much worse than their record. Also they whooped us last time. TOUGH WIN
CAR	12	7	Hurricanes are a good team. Playing very well. WATCH OUT
TBL	1	1	Rest Mathews, Tavares, and Anderson. WE AINT WINNING THIS ONE
MTL	14	16	Win this one and knock off 4 of the 9 points. Would be nice to eliminate them. MUST WIN

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Leafs are 6th in the League but 20th in ELO

I'm just venting here. We beat buffalo but the last few losses got me worried about the playoffs.


what are your thoughts about the last 8 games?

Click to read more...

 

[ACC1224]

Love some ELO, underrated band.

 

[BTP]

Rest Matthews and Tavares vs Tampa? No thank you. Final tune up/game with intensity before the real thing.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I almost spit my early beer out when I read your back to back comment about the NYI game. You should clarify it's the Carolina game that's on the back end of the B2B.

 

[IBeL34f]

Love some ELO, underrated band.

Don't bring me down, groos.

 

[crump]

2 wins and they are in

 

[Advanced stats]

100% chance we clinch. No concerns

Anyone even remotely concerned with us missing should probably go get checked out. Time to get ready to beat Boston!!! You know the guys will be motivated, so y'all may as well get pumped up as well!

 

[Suntouchable13]

The ELO is alarming, though. It does confirm everyone's fears, however. It's interesting how the Isles ELO is worse than ours.

 

[Sypher04]

"WE AINT WINNING THIS ONE" - we've played Tampa 3 times and 2 of them we looked like the better team... This mindset is purely recency bias.

 

[Rob Brown]

Do people actually think we aren't making the playoffs?

 

[willmma]

I almost spit my early beer out when I read your back to back comment about the NYI game. You should clarify it's the Carolina game that's on the back end of the B2B.

My bad. Sorry i put your early beet at risk.

 

[BayStreetBully]

We’re in. It’s a done deal. Like Tavares to Toronto on June 30.

 

[willmma]

"WE AINT WINNING THIS ONE" - we've played Tampa 3 times and 2 of them we looked like the better team... This mindset is purely recency bias.

I guess im still down from last week. God dammit those bum sens beat us 6-2 when we had a chance to pass the broons.

 

[hoglund]

A few games ago I was hoping we pass Boston. That dream is gone. Now I am homing we stay ahead of Montreal and to clinch a playoff spot.

The Leafs have 8 games to go. They need to earn 9 points to clinch a playoff spot (Or the Habs need to lose 9 points in their last 8 games, or a combination of leaf points gained and habs points lost that add up to 9).

Any ways I am looking at the teams we are playing in the last 8 games and their League as well as ELO rankings and adding my thoughts on those games



Leafs are playing :

Team	League Ranking	Elo Ranking	Thoughts
NYR	26	31	Rangers are a lousy team playing their worst hockey of the season. MUST WIN
FLA	20	12	Panthers are not great but they are playing better than their record. WATCH OUT
PHI	17	11	Flyers are similar to panthers. Playing better than their record. Slightly better than Panthers. WATCH OUT
OTT	31	27	Senators whooped us 6-2. Melnyk is bad mouthing us. REVENGE!!
NYI	8	24	(back to back game). Islanders are a good team, but they are playing much worse than their record. Also they whooped us last time. TOUGH WIN
CAR	12	7	Hurricanes are a good team. Playing very well. WATCH OUT
TBL	1	1	Rest Mathews, Tavares, and Anderson. WE AINT WINNING THIS ONE
MTL	14	16	Win this one and knock off 4 of the 9 points. Would be nice to eliminate them. MUST WIN

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Leafs are 6th in the League but 20th in ELO

I'm just venting here. We beat buffalo but the last few losses got me worried about the playoffs.


what are your thoughts about the last 8 games?

What is ELO?

 

[willmma]

What is ELO?

ELO is a rating system mostly used for chess. But I think it applies nicely here.
At the beginning all teams have the same score. Then they gain or lose points on wins and losses
How much they gain or lose depends on the difference of scores to begin with.

If we beat Tampa Bay we gain a lot of points
if we beat Ottawa we gain only a few points
similarly if lose to TB we lose a few points and lose a lot of points after losing to Ottawa

it applies well to the nhl. it basically shows how hot a team is right now

this video explains it well

 

[hoglund]

ELO is a rating system mostly used for chess. But I think it applies nicely here.
At the beginning all teams have the same score. Then they gain or lose points on wins and losses
How much they gain or lose depends on the difference of scores to begin with.

If we beat Tampa Bay we gain a lot of points
if we beat Ottawa we gain only a few points
similarly if lose to TB we lose a few points and lose a lot of points after losing to Ottawa

it applies well to the nhl. it basically shows how hot a team is right now

this video explains it well

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[The Podium]

Would be fun to knock out the Habs in game 82