Confirmed with Link: Clayton Keller, Coyotes agree on 8-year, $7.15M AAV extension

BUX7PHX

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You can write it a thousand times if you want, it won't change the question. Who is Keller? If he gets back to 60 something points regularly we have a fair deal. If he occasionally goes over 70 points we have a good deal. However if he turns into a 2nd line winger in the 50's for points we have a bad deal. That is the gamble Chayka took and he will either be smart for doing it or a not so smart unemployed GM.

You keep asking who Keller is, but you know exactly what he is. You specifically chose the values of 50, 60, and 70 points, so that tells me that you think that is where his value lies now and in the short term. You pretty much answered the question that you already know the answer to... :banghead:

He is likely a 55-65 point scorer for his career in the short term. Possibly a PPG player in the latter years of this deal. Probably not going to go for less than 50 points in a season. Keller is better in his first two years than Larkin was. That's who he is.

You're trying to find a way to say that it isn't smart, and yet you totally agree with where his point totals are likely to end up at, and that because he is a 21 year old who was a top 10 pick, he is likely to continue some level of improvement. Which makes up the basis for how the deal gets done in the first place. What's next? You're going to argue that $7 M is too much when Keller put up 112 points in 164 games and a player like Larkin (again, 100% comparable, with the only exception of the year he signed long term), when Larkin put up 77 points in 160 games.

You haven't done any research into this at all and are simply stating that you don't have a high opinion of Chayka and what he is thinking. The funny thing is that more GMs are thinking that way, not less. Jump on the train, or stay behind. Don't hate the idea when it is actually tending to work for the better and not worse.
 
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Jamieh

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You keep asking who Keller is, but you know exactly what he is. You specifically chose the values of 50, 60, and 70 points, so that tells me that you think that is where his value lies now and in the short term. You pretty much answered the question that you already know the answer to... :banghead:

He is likely a 55-65 point scorer for his career in the short term. Possibly a PPG player in the latter years of this deal. Probably not going to go for less than 50 points in a season. Keller is better in his first two years than Larkin was. That's who he is.

You're trying to find a way to say that it isn't smart, and yet you totally agree with where his point totals are likely to end up at, and that because he is a 21 year old who was a top 10 pick, he is likely to continue some level of improvement. Which makes up the basis for how the deal gets done in the first place. What's next? You're going to argue that $7 M is too much when Keller put up 112 points in 164 games and a player like Larkin (again, 100% comparable, with the only exception of the year he signed long term), when Larkin put up 77 points in 160 games.

You haven't done any research into this at all and are simply stating that you don't have a high opinion of Chayka and what he is thinking. The funny thing is that more GMs are thinking that way, not less. Jump on the train, or stay behind. Don't hate the idea when it is actually tending to work for the better and not worse.
My very first post stated what I think, Chayka is either a genius or will bury the franchise. I don't know what Keller is and neither do you as we have two very different seasons to judge by. You state the downside of waiting a year is about $400K, there is no way I sign a guy for 8 years at $7 million if that's all I thought I could cost the team by waiting. Basically that's a 4th line min wage vs $1.2 million guy. There is a significant difference between 50 and 70 points. I don't think you can find many examples of going long term after two years of a 40% regression working out. Heck It's a new thing so I'll stick with waiting it out for the results.
 
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BUX7PHX

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My very first post stated what I think, Chayka is either a genius or will bury the franchise. I don't know what Keller is and neither do you as we have two very different seasons to judge by. You state the downside of waiting a year is about $400K, there is no way I sign a guy for 8 years at $7 million if that's all I thought I could cost the team by waiting. Basically that's a 4th line min wage vs $1.2 million guy. There is a significant difference between 50 and 70 points. I don't think you can find many examples of going long term after two years of a 40% regression working out. Heck It's a new thing so I'll stick with waiting it out for the results.

I just stated what Keller was. Likely a 55-65 point player with a floor of 50 and a ceiling of 80. Same way that I think Larkin is a 55-65 point player with a similar floor and ceiling.

The difference of $400k is comparing what happens for long term deals. The option that you tend to be pushing for is a bridge deal. The problem like that is what may happen with Domi in MTL. He signs a bridge deal, then goes out for 72 points. Maybe at the time, a long-term deal was at $7.15 M AAV, but it was decided to go with a bridge deal. Should Domi put up at least 65 points, his market value has just changed and he would be looking closer to a dollar amount that starts with an 8. In two years, that $400 k difference now becomes closer to $1 M, if not more.

That also reflects something that no one has talked about: knowing the value that you work with now. If we approach an offseason where a player that we are looking to sign long-term now wants to sign something for more than what we were originally planning, Chayka and company have to set up a few plan Bs and Cs to ensure that we hit a comfortable number. That may mean not going after a UFA in that $0.4 - 1.0M range of dollars that could help the team. With dollars set out far in advance, you can make better decisions with where to put that money, which can include realizing that an 8 year deal isn't as friendly as thought (which I really have my suspicions that isn't the case and that Keller will be the exception to how this was handled).

Personally, I think that the moves like this are not very smart or very dumb. Just kind of truthful for how the market sets up and getting players signed to deals that are appropriate for the type of trajectory that similar players have experienced.
 

Jamieh

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Apr 25, 2012
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I just stated what Keller was. Likely a 55-65 point player with a floor of 50 and a ceiling of 80. Same way that I think Larkin is a 55-65 point player with a similar floor and ceiling.

The difference of $400k is comparing what happens for long term deals. The option that you tend to be pushing for is a bridge deal. The problem like that is what may happen with Domi in MTL. He signs a bridge deal, then goes out for 72 points. Maybe at the time, a long-term deal was at $7.15 M AAV, but it was decided to go with a bridge deal. Should Domi put up at least 65 points, his market value has just changed and he would be looking closer to a dollar amount that starts with an 8. In two years, that $400 k difference now becomes closer to $1 M, if not more.

That also reflects something that no one has talked about: knowing the value that you work with now. If we approach an offseason where a player that we are looking to sign long-term now wants to sign something for more than what we were originally planning, Chayka and company have to set up a few plan Bs and Cs to ensure that we hit a comfortable number. That may mean not going after a UFA in that $0.4 - 1.0M range of dollars that could help the team. With dollars set out far in advance, you can make better decisions with where to put that money, which can include realizing that an 8 year deal isn't as friendly as thought (which I really have my suspicions that isn't the case and that Keller will be the exception to how this was handled).

Personally, I think that the moves like this are not very smart or very dumb. Just kind of truthful for how the market sets up and getting players signed to deals that are appropriate for the type of trajectory that similar players have experienced.
I didn't push for a bridge deal, I simply asked why rush for this deal when last season was so bad. It's not like Chayka got a discount by signing him this year.
 
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Jakey53

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I didn't push for a bridge deal, I simply asked why rush for this deal when last season was so bad. It's not like Chayka got a discount by signing him this year.
What do you think Keller would be worth if he gets 75 pts. next year?
 

BUX7PHX

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I didn't push for a bridge deal, I simply asked why rush for this deal when last season was so bad. It's not like Chayka got a discount by signing him this year.

Well, whether long term or a bridge deal, at some point negotiations were going to occur, over some type of contract. You're right that there was no rush, but this was an inevitable scenario with wanting a player on this team for long term. If team and player already expressed interest in being together for the next 8 years, what sort of optics does it look like when the team says, "Hey Clayton, we know we said that we want you for 8 years, but we want to do so in two 2 year bridge deals, followed by a larger deal." As a player, wouldn't you feel like you were led to believe that an 8 year deal was on the horizon, only to have that be presented differently? We all know what can happen when management and player relations break down, so I would even consider this a win for both sides. Most times, either the player wins (getting a contract well above value) or the front office wins by getting a player for cheap value (Karlsson in Vegas).

As far as value goes, the 2nd year is always tougher because teams have tape to see what the player is doing. Ask Larkin. Ask Duclair. Around the 3rd year, is when you should see additional steps. I can say this - I was put it at a less than 10% chance that his value diminishes to where even $6-7 M is too much. It will probably be a 70% chance that his numbers will pace him at about 60 points. Maybe a 20% chance that 70+ is in range. I think there is a far greater potential to an increase to AAV in waiting, as opposed to a decrease.
 

Plub

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I didn't push for a bridge deal, I simply asked why rush for this deal when last season was so bad. It's not like Chayka got a discount by signing him this year.

I think he may be happy with an acceptable deal that may look good later instead of a good deal now and having to massively overpay later. Either option is better than getting bent over like Marner bent over TO in my opinion.
 

BUX7PHX

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He was only going to get more expensive. Better to get it done now.

For the most part in sports, the longer you wait, the more you wind up paying for it. As the market resets with various player comparisons, you may find that the price is likely to go up before it goes down. In fact, if the salary cap floor and ceiling keep rising, contracts will follow suit.
 

RABBIT

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So how's this contract looking?

Starts next year. Ask us then.

he will need to be better than he has been. Of all the long term deals Chayka has done this is the only one where we aren’t breathing easy on.

Dvorak needs to show some more to earn his contract as well, in my opinion. Not as expensive as Keller’s, and Dvo is a center, but he shouldn’t be completely comfortable with it.
 
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hbk

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Dvorak needs to show some more to earn his contract as well, in my opinion. Not as expensive as Keller’s, and Dvo is a center, but he shouldn’t be completely comfortable with it.
38 points in 70 games after losing an entire season. Equates out to a 45 point season. He met my expectations this season. I’m excited by what he’s gonna do in the playoffs and I think he will cement himself as a 2nd line C going forward. With any luck we will get a 60 point effort out of him soon.
 

LuckyNumber11

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Dvorak needs to show some more to earn his contract as well, in my opinion. Not as expensive as Keller’s, and Dvo is a center, but he shouldn’t be completely comfortable with it.
You don’t think he’ll end up at least a 45 point per year center? Cause that’s what his AAV calls for, he was on track for that this year with plenty room still to grow
 
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RemoAZ

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Schmaltz contract is still questionable imo. Another soft perimeter player. Inconsistent effort which is the label he came with. But he got injured and we know how Chayka loves to extend injured players.
 
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RABBIT

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38 points in 70 games after losing an entire season. Equates out to a 45 point season. He met my expectations this season. I’m excited by what he’s gonna do in the playoffs and I think he will cement himself as a 2nd line C going forward. With any luck we will get a 60 point effort out of him soon.

You don’t think he’ll end up at least a 45 point per year center? Cause that’s what his AAV calls for, he was on track for that this year with plenty room still to grow

I mean I guess 45 points isn’t bad for 4.5M, but when he signed his contract the selling point was that he is the type of player that will make it look like a steal. Maybe that’s why my blinders are on, if he hovers around 45 points each season, we basically have another Stepan, albeit cheaper but less offensive production
 

hbk

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I mean I guess 45 points isn’t bad for 4.5M, but when he signed his contract the selling point was that he is the type of player that will make it look like a steal. Maybe that’s why my blinders are on, if he hovers around 45 points each season, we basically have another Stepan, albeit cheaper but less offensive production
Yes but does he love Bud Light?

I’m a big Dvorak fan. One of my favs on the team.
 

Jakey53

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Yes but does he love Bud Light?

I’m a big Dvorak fan. One of my favs on the team.
I like DVO as well, and that is why I was so mad when RT kept on giving Stepan so much TOI and PP time when you could see he wasn't getting the job done. If DVO gets to play with Hall and Garland in the playoffs he has to step it up, and there is no reason he can't playing with those two.
 
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Jakey53

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I’m fine with Dvorak. All Keller and Schmaltz need to do to become effective is go inside. That’s it. If they can’t figure out how, they can just watch Garland for a single shift. Problem solved.
I saw a small clip the other day where Hall mentioned that he has never played with a player like Garland. Maybe Garland might be our ace in the hole here.
 

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