Claude Giroux: "Reasons to be Cheerful Part III"

[Sombastate]

No kidding.

The national media and team Canada give him zero respect and there's even a part of the Flyers fanbase that doesn't realize how insanely good he is.

He compared him to McNabb, but i think that the national media did like McNabb. That a lot of the crap about McNabb is revisionist because he was pretty liked. He wasn't super appreciated by Eagles fans, but i don't think he's getting the "hate" that Giroux gets.

 

[deadhead]

Giroux gets plenty of respect, it's just that he's not considered a dominant forward as either a scorer, i.e. Crosby, or an all around force, Kopitar, or a young, rising talent, McDavid, Matthews, McKinnon. He's in the second tier of forwards everyone would love to have, but don't consider to be elite.

The last five years, Giroux is 28th in 5x5 points, 1st in PP points, 6th in total points.
He has scored 4 more points than Backstrom, who is neck to neck with him as the top PP scorer.
He's not in the top 50 in xGF% 5x5 over that period.
Top ten 5x5 scorers last five years: Crosby, Benn, Kane, Tarasenko, Getzlaf, Seguin, Wheeler, Tavares, Hall, Kessel

Injuries do matter, for national attention you have to have multiple elite years to be considered among the very best, he had one last year, before then his last top season was 2011-12, and even then he wasn't a top 5x5 scorer.

So two factors working against him, a stretch of good but not great play before he had his bounce back season, and by excelling on the power play, but not 5x5, he's seen more of a specialist than a dominant player.

 

[Tripod]

"for national attention you have to have multiple elite years to be considered among the very best,"

3 top 3 finishes in scoring in 7 years
3 top 4 finishes in voting in 7 years
2nd in NHL scoring this decade

Yet the man was top 6 in All Star voting this year at LW, C, AND RW by people who get paid to watch hockey.

 

[Striiker]

Guys, I SWEAR deadhead isn't my burner account.

I know it looks like all he does on this board is to prove me right constantly, but that's only because he doesn't know any better. I'm not colluding with him or anything.

I promise I didn't tell him to make a ridiculous argument, acting like PP scoring doesn't count, for the purpose of minimizing Giroux accomplishments, right after I said he doesn't get the respect he deserves.

 

[Sombastate]

Guys, I SWEAR deadhead isn't my burner account.

I know it looks like all he does on this board is to prove me right constantly, but that's only because he doesn't know any better. I'm not colluding with him or anything.

I promise I didn't tell him to make a ridiculous argument, acting like PP scoring doesn't count, for the purpose of minimizing Giroux accomplishments, right after I said he doesn't get the respect he deserves.

Burden of proof is on you.

 

[Striiker]

Burden of proof is on you.

Well my other account is a lawyer, so I know that the burden of proof is on the prosecution!










Oh shit....

 

[deadhead]

"for national attention you have to have multiple elite years to be considered among the very best,"

3 top 3 finishes in scoring in 7 years
3 top 4 finishes in voting in 7 years
2nd in NHL scoring this decade

Yet the man was top 6 in All Star voting this year at LW, C, AND RW by people who get paid to watch hockey.

A lot of ancient history you're digging into to make him look good, who looks further back than five years to identify the top CURRENT players.
Career accomplishments matter for HOF voting, but current evaluation is "what have you done for me lately."

 

[Striiker]

102 points
2nd in league scoring.



That’s what he’s done for us lately. A whole lot more relevant than two years that we’re ruined by injury.

 

[deadhead]

Two years ruined by injury? His 2015-16 season was as good or better than his 2014-15 season when he was healthy, so I doubt that claim of two seasons can be verified - even by our resident hockey "God."

Last time I checked, staying healthy was one of the qualifications of a top player, which is why objective observers tend to look at a 3 to 5 year period when identifying the best players - one great season isn't enough - you have to show you can excel over a period of time that's not ancient history. Giroux comes up short whether you use 3, 4, or 5 years, you have to use 7-8 years to get him in the running, and that eliminates all the top players who are 23-26 or so.

Go on the main board and offer Giroux for any other top player in their late 20s, and see how many takers you find. Not that they're experts, but I think you'll find outside of this board, that most hockey fans don't rate him as highly as Flyer fans.

 

[Striiker]

Last 5 years

386 points in 405 games
0.95 P/GP
5th in points

Not a top player though


*And that includes the injured year and the recovery year. If those were closer to average years, he's probably comfortably in 2nd place

 

[deadhead]

He's a top power play producer, but he's not in the top 20 at ES over that period.

No, power play points aren't as value, something called "opportunity cost," you can work around the loss of a top power play producer easier than the loss of a top 1C who dominates games at ES.

As good as Giroux was on the PP last year, Flyers were only 15th in the league in PP%.
The season before, when he and Ghost struggled, they were 14th.
2017-18: 15th - Giroux 9-27, Simmonds 11-6, Couts 7-7, Voracek 5-30, Ghost 7-26, Patrick 5-3 [10 SHA]
2016-17: 14th - Giroux 5-26, Schenn 17-11, Simmonds 16-9, Voracek 5-23, Ghost 2-21 [9 SHA]
2015-16: 11th - Giroux 6-21, Simmonds 13-8, Schenn 11-11, Voracek 1-22, Ghost 8-14 [8 SHA]
2014-15: 3rd - Giroux 14-23, Simmonds 14-10, Voracek 11-22, Streit 4-26, Schenn 7-12 [6 SHA]
2013-14: 8th - Giroux 7-30, Simmonds 15-9, Voracek 8-15, Vinnie 8-5, Kimmo 1-19, Streit 4-11 [11 SHA]
2012-13: 3rd - Giroux 6-15, Voracek 8-9, Simmonds 6-10, Kimmo 3-14 [48 games] [3 SHA]
2011-12: 6th - Giroux 6-32, Hartnell 16-7, Simmonds 11-16, Jagr 8-12, Kimmo 4-17 [9 SHA]
2010-11: 19th - Giroux 8-11, Richards 5-16, Carter 8-9, Briere 6-9, Kimmo 1-15, Pronger 3-11 [5 SHA]

What seems to drive success on the PP has been less how well Giroux has played, than how well and how deep the goal scorers were on the PP - in a sense, it's more of a group effort than 5x5 play.

 

[Tripod]

Well, we have finally jumped the shark. Now the contrarian is downplaying Giroux on the PP.

Last 3 years, leads the league in PP points
Last 4 years, leads the league in PP points
Last 5 years, leads the league in PP points

It's also funny how Hakstol is "you are what your record says you are" but for Giroux, he isn't what his points say he is.

Once again, proof of how underrated Giroux is even by certain members of our own fanbase.

 

[Appleyard]

He's a top power play producer, but he's not in the top 20 at ES over that period.

No, power play points aren't as value, something called "opportunity cost," you can work around the loss of a top power play producer easier than the loss of a top 1C who dominates games at ES.

As good as Giroux was on the PP last year, Flyers were only 15th in the league in PP%.
The season before, when he and Ghost struggled, they were 14th.
2017-18: 15th - Giroux 9-27, Simmonds 11-6, Couts 7-7, Voracek 5-30, Ghost 7-26, Patrick 5-3 [10 SHA]
2016-17: 14th - Giroux 5-26, Schenn 17-11, Simmonds 16-9, Voracek 5-23, Ghost 2-21 [9 SHA]
2015-16: 11th - Giroux 6-21, Simmonds 13-8, Schenn 11-11, Voracek 1-22, Ghost 8-14 [8 SHA]
2014-15: 3rd - Giroux 14-23, Simmonds 14-10, Voracek 11-22, Streit 4-26, Schenn 7-12 [6 SHA]
2013-14: 8th - Giroux 7-30, Simmonds 15-9, Voracek 8-15, Vinnie 8-5, Kimmo 1-19, Streit 4-11 [11 SHA]
2012-13: 3rd - Giroux 6-15, Voracek 8-9, Simmonds 6-10, Kimmo 3-14 [48 games] [3 SHA]
2011-12: 6th - Giroux 6-32, Hartnell 16-7, Simmonds 11-16, Jagr 8-12, Kimmo 4-17 [9 SHA]
2010-11: 19th - Giroux 8-11, Richards 5-16, Carter 8-9, Briere 6-9, Kimmo 1-15, Pronger 3-11 [5 SHA]

What seems to drive success on the PP has been less how well Giroux has played, than how well and how deep the goal scorers were on the PP - in a sense, it's more of a group effort than 5x5 play.

That is because PP2 cannot score.

The only PP units in the NHL last year who for sure scored more goals than Flyers PP1 at 5v4 were:

Capitals PP1
Penguins PP1
Colorado PP1

They scored 45/48 of the teams 5v4 goals... insane as that seems.

2017-18: ~45 goals (~4th in NHL)
2016-17: ~44 goals (~1st in NHL)
2015-16: ~35 goals (~5th in NHL)
2014-15: ~43 goals (~1st in NHL)
2013-14: ~43 goals (~3rd in NHL)
2012-13: ~27 goals (~2nd in NHL)
2011-12: ~37 goals (~5th in NHL)
2010-11: ~28 goals (~16th in NHL)

Since they changed the PP structure and Giroux started running it they have been a top 5 PP unit basically every year production wise. Him and Simmonds have been the only constants (Voracek was not on PP1 in 2011-12)... and last year they scored at a higher rate without Simmonds when he was moved to PP2.

The dip over the last three seasons is down to PP2, nothing to do with PP1.

Giroux 5v4, 2015-18: 8.78 GF/60, 9.11 ExGF/60
Giroux 5v4, 2011-15: 9.12 GF/60, 8.77 ExGF/60

 

[deadhead]

They also play the PP1 more than most teams because the PP2 is so bad.

But that's my point, PP production is less valuable than ES play because there are more options to boost PP production than the output of one player (i.e. the opportunity cost is smaller). And on PP, two way play is less important (though the Flyers seem to give up more short handed goals than the league average most seasons).

Again, this is all a matter of relative value, all points have value, but I'll take a dominant ES performer over a dominant PP performer.

And the issue here is whether you'd consider Giroux a top five forward or a top 10-20 forward.
I think everyone outside of Philly would have Crosby, McDavid, and Matthews ahead of him.
The argument starts around Tavares, Ovechkin, Panarin, Kucherov, Marchand, Kopitar, Scheifele, Malkin, Kane, Couts, etc.
In a couple years throw in Nico, Patrick, Barzal, etc.
I'd probably put guys like Wheeler, Gadreau, Benn, Hall, Backstrom a notch below.

 

[Striiker]

 

[1865]

I saw a tweet yesterday saying how the Flyers lack a franchise player. Supposedly a Flyers fan too.

We don't deserve Giroux.

 

[Appleyard]

Well most teams with great PP players also use PP1 heavily... Caps, Pens etc.

But we have P/60, GF/60 etc, and Giroux does amazingly in those:

This decade:

P: 219 (1st in NHL)
GF: 297 (2nd in NHL, Ovechkin ahead)

P/60: 6.34 (3rd in NHL, Backstrom+Kucherov ahead)
GF/60: 8.63 (3rd in NHL, Malkin+Backstrom ahead)

It is close to impossible to argue that he is not at worst the 2nd best PP player in the NHL, and consistently has been even through injuries, changes in team-mates etc.


And last season at 5v5 it is hard to argue he was not one of the best few forwards in the NHL at 5v5. There are only a couple of players in the NHL who were ahead of him in a majority of 5v5 statistical categories.

Ofc there were some categories where he was ~15th-20th etc... as we have seen with Crosby no-one can be top 5 at everything... even at his best he was not top 5 across the board in every single category. 2013-14 Crsoby was 10th in 5v5 P/60... 2009-10 his ExGF/60 and ExGF% were not top 15! He was still a dominant 5v5 player amongst the 5 best in the league!

At 5v5 this year Giroux was:

3rd in points
8th in P/60
5th in Game Score
2nd in GF Rel
9th in GF%
3rd in GF/60

Now ofc going forward it is difficult to say he will be that good at 5v5 again, he has "only" had 3x elite 5v5 seasons (2010-11, 2011-12 and 2017-18).

And according to the Hart voters, point production etc there have been arguably three seasons where he has been a top 5 player in the league... 2011-12, 2013-14 and 2017-18.

Will he have another such year going forward? I am not sure the odds are great. But on multiple seasons over his career he has been pretty elite at 5v5.

 

[Striiker]

micdrop.gif

 

[Rebels57]

I saw a tweet yesterday saying how the Flyers lack a franchise player. Supposedly a Flyers fan too.

We don't deserve Giroux.

The casual portion of the Flyers fanbase has gone downhill dramatically. It really sucks.

 

[Tripod]

Someone got Appleyarded!

 

[Adtar02]

He's a top power play producer, but he's not in the top 20 at ES over that period.

No, power play points aren't as value, something called "opportunity cost," you can work around the loss of a top power play producer easier than the loss of a top 1C who dominates games at ES.

As good as Giroux was on the PP last year, Flyers were only 15th in the league in PP%.
The season before, when he and Ghost struggled, they were 14th.
2017-18: 15th - Giroux 9-27, Simmonds 11-6, Couts 7-7, Voracek 5-30, Ghost 7-26, Patrick 5-3 [10 SHA]
2016-17: 14th - Giroux 5-26, Schenn 17-11, Simmonds 16-9, Voracek 5-23, Ghost 2-21 [9 SHA]
2015-16: 11th - Giroux 6-21, Simmonds 13-8, Schenn 11-11, Voracek 1-22, Ghost 8-14 [8 SHA]
2014-15: 3rd - Giroux 14-23, Simmonds 14-10, Voracek 11-22, Streit 4-26, Schenn 7-12 [6 SHA]
2013-14: 8th - Giroux 7-30, Simmonds 15-9, Voracek 8-15, Vinnie 8-5, Kimmo 1-19, Streit 4-11 [11 SHA]
2012-13: 3rd - Giroux 6-15, Voracek 8-9, Simmonds 6-10, Kimmo 3-14 [48 games] [3 SHA]
2011-12: 6th - Giroux 6-32, Hartnell 16-7, Simmonds 11-16, Jagr 8-12, Kimmo 4-17 [9 SHA]
2010-11: 19th - Giroux 8-11, Richards 5-16, Carter 8-9, Briere 6-9, Kimmo 1-15, Pronger 3-11 [5 SHA]

What seems to drive success on the PP has been less how well Giroux has played, than how well and how deep the goal scorers were on the PP - in a sense, it's more of a group effort than 5x5 play.

How is 5v5 not a group effort. Seems to me quality of defender plays more of a role there.

And striker is right our second unit is what is causing the dip

 

[Striiker]

How is 5v5 not a group effort. Seems to me quality of defender plays more of a role there.

And striker is right our second unit is what is causing the dip

Actually Appleyard was the one who just said that, but I've pointed it out in the past.

But yeah, imagine pointing out the overall PP ranking and thinking that's an argument against Giroux...

Anything to minimize our best player, I guess.

 

[deadhead]

Actually, in a sideways fashion, Appleyard said the same things I said:
1) Giroux is an elite PP producer, but not at 5x5
2) His peak was 2010-2012, those two years he was an elite 5x5 player
3) He reached that peak again in 2017-18, but is unlikely to repeat, that was probably a "last hurrah" season

3 top seasons over 8 years probably puts him a notch below the "best of the best."
Over that 8 year stretch, which includes his 3 best seasons, among those with 4000+ 5x5 minutes:
41st in pp/60, 90th in Corsi, 109 in xGF (Voracek and Raffl were higher)

Top ten guys during that 8 year period:

Crosby 1st in PP/60, 14th in Corsi, 5th in xGF
Marchand 9th in PP/60, 4th in Corsi, 7th in xGF

Tarasenko 6th in PP/60, 18th in Corsi, 18th in xGF
Kucherov 7th in PP/60, 15th in Corsi, 22nd in xGF
Toews 16th in PP/60, 8th in Corsi, 32nd in xGF
Seguin 14th in PP/60, 44th in Corsi, 38th in xGF
Forsberg 24th in PP/60, 10th in Corsi, 19th in xGF

Kopitar 32nd in PP/60, 5th in Corsi, 9th in xGF
Bergeron 34th in PP/60, 1st in Corsi, 1st in xGF
Datsyuk 43st in PP/60, 2nd in Corsi, 8th in xGF

2 guys who were the top all around, 5 guys who scored and did well, three guys who scored less but were puck control monsters

Top power play scorers (800+ minutes):
Backstrom 7.15 pp/60
Giroux 6.71
Kucherov 6.57
Malkin 6.51
Datysuk 6.3
Crosby 6.29
Kuznetsov 6.21
Tavarez 5.70
Kane 5.66
Paveliski 5.62

Crosby, Kucherov and Datysuk are the only names on both lists.

 

[Striiker]

2017-2018

Even strength points - 66

2nd in the league

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Well most teams with great PP players also use PP1 heavily... Caps, Pens etc.

But we have P/60, GF/60 etc, and Giroux does amazingly in those:

This decade:

P: 219 (1st in NHL)
GF: 297 (2nd in NHL, Ovechkin ahead)

P/60: 6.34 (3rd in NHL, Backstrom+Kucherov ahead)
GF/60: 8.63 (3rd in NHL, Malkin+Backstrom ahead)

It is close to impossible to argue that he is not at worst the 2nd best PP player in the NHL, and consistently has been even through injuries, changes in team-mates etc.


And last season at 5v5 it is hard to argue he was not one of the best few forwards in the NHL at 5v5. There are only a couple of players in the NHL who were ahead of him in a majority of 5v5 statistical categories.

Ofc there were some categories where he was ~15th-20th etc... as we have seen with Crosby no-one can be top 5 at everything... even at his best he was not top 5 across the board in every single category. 2013-14 Crsoby was 10th in 5v5 P/60... 2009-10 his ExGF/60 and ExGF% were not top 15! He was still a dominant 5v5 player amongst the 5 best in the league!

At 5v5 this year Giroux was:

3rd in points
8th in P/60
5th in Game Score
2nd in GF Rel
9th in GF%
3rd in GF/60

Now ofc going forward it is difficult to say he will be that good at 5v5 again, he has "only" had 3x elite 5v5 seasons (2010-11, 2011-12 and 2017-18).

And according to the Hart voters, point production etc there have been arguably three seasons where he has been a top 5 player in the league... 2011-12, 2013-14 and 2017-18.

Will he have another such year going forward? I am not sure the odds are great. But on multiple seasons over his career he has been pretty elite at 5v5.