Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Mess, Nov 22, 2004.

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  1. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    WHAT MAKES A GOOD PROSPECT ??

    Actually HF .. has

    Leafs 5th best prospect Kyle Wellwood listed at:
    5-11 190 lbs
    Born May 16, 1983



    YEAR......TEAM...........GP .....G....A...PTS....+/-
    2004/2005 ST. Johns......16......9...11....20....+7
    2003/2004 ST. Johns......76.....20...35....55...-14


    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect.php?pid=2232

    and Habs TOP 50 Prospect Chris Higgins listed at :
    5-11 188 lbs
    Born June 2, 1983



    YEAR.......TEAM.........GP .....G....A...PTS....+/-
    2004/2005 Hamilton......18......3....3.....6....-1
    2003/2004 Hamilton......67.....21...27....48...+16


    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect.php?pid=3301

    The 2 players are 16 days a part in age, 2 pounds in weight and Higgins had 18 PIMS to Wellwoods 4 Last season.

    At this point judging from Wellwood's AHL success and dominance..

    WHAT makes Higgins a TOP 50 prospect and Wellwood not even a consideration, and what are the factors that determine, ranking among your peers??

    Considering how close they are in Stature and Statistically except for points this season ..While I realize that current season stats are not a part of the Top 50 this year ..still based on last season ..they seem fairly close ....
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2004
  2. ChemiseBleuHonnete

    ChemiseBleuHonnete Registered User

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    I can't beleive you're posting that....
     
  3. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    That response is the exact reason I am posting it ..

    You tell me what is the Difference between the two players that would provoke a response like that .. ??
     
  4. andora

    andora Registered User

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    how about explaining why you feel it's so assinine, rather than just posting what you did letting people think of you "typical hab fan response"

    prove him wrong
     
  5. Prucha73

    Prucha73 Guest

    looks like big difference in +/- department. But otherwise those lists are mostly based on hype and mostly consist of high draft picks.
     
  6. andora

    andora Registered User

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    CANADIAN
    Y-Hamilton (1) 80 49 19 8 4 110 .688 279 191 1319 26- 7- 4- 3 23-12- 4- 1 2- 6- 2- 0 0- 1- 0- 0
    X-Manitoba (9) 80 37 33 8 2 84 .525 229 228 1405 22-14- 4- 0 15-19- 4- 2 4- 3- 1- 2 0- 1- 0- 0
    St. John's 80 32 40 6 2 72 .450 236 285 1683 19-17- 3- 1 13-23- 3- 1 6- 2- 1- 1 0- 0- 0- 1
    Saint John 80 32 41 6 1 71 .444 203 223 1704 16-20- 3- 1 16-21- 3- 0 4- 5- 1- 0 3- 0- 0- 0


    that could have something to do with it
     
  7. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Fair enough .... but is that correct, and its not intended to reflect any negativity on the list .... Better put ...

    What makes one player considered a GOOD prospect and the other AVERAGE when the similarities are so close ..??

    and even futher similarities exist ... both are TOP LINE AHL players .. both played in the WJC for their respective countries ... Higgins may have an extra TOP gear speed wise, but those that watch Wellwood play he is not slouch and deciptive speed wise .. and Notice the turnaround in +/- this season .. probably more a refection on team performance than individual ones ..

    and take into consideration that Dallas has sent Steve Ott, Trevor Daley and Dan Ellis - Three very good young players to bolster the Hamilton team .. that can only benefit Higgins statiscally ..
     
  8. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    And notice this season as St. Johns (19 points) is slighlty ahead on Hamilton (16 points) in the current standings Wellwood sits at a +7 and Higgins a - 1 currently ..
     
  9. Evman*

    Evman* Guest

    I'm not an expert on the two, and somebody can correct me if I'm grossly mistaken, but I'm pretty sure while the same size, Wellwood plays a "small" game while Higgins does not.
     
  10. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Wellwood had 4 PIMS ... Higgins 18 last season ... Is that enough to swing the pendulum ??

    Since both players are playing and succeeding in a BIG MAN's AHL currently under the same conditions .. Should Style of Game factor in ?? .. as both seem to use differnment methods to produce at this level and at any level you always have all types of players ..
     
  11. dmcilvan

    dmcilvan Registered User

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    From everything I've seen/read, Higgins plays much better defense than Wellwood and throws his body around more.
     
  12. cj

    cj Registered User

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    From the prospect profiles:

    I haven't seen either play very much, but so I can't comment myself but I'm guessing that's the difference right there, defense and physical play. I'm gathering Higgins style is a little more suited to the NHL.
     
  13. think-blue-

    think-blue- Registered User

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    And skating (well, speed here as you outlined). That's always been one of the bigger concerns with Wellwood, as I understand it.
     
  14. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Good Post ...

    But can defense be taught ???

    and

    Do all players need to be solid 2 way players.. and currently Wellwood + 7 leads his team in +/- an indication that he is conscious of the defensive side of his game, while his senior Linemates Druken -2 and Ling +3 while Higgins is a - 1 currently on his team ...

    Offensive skills not as much as those are usually either you have them or your don't ...

    and not as a reflection of either Prospect but lets take a very successful NHL player like Joe Sakic .. He is also 5-11 185 pounds and certainly does not play a very physical game, but rather a skill one ..while also taking few penalties ..

    Could both players model their games similar to Burnaby JOE ...
     
  15. andora

    andora Registered User

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    you know mess, you better be careful and not let this defense/physical defense with higgins win, as you'll be inadvertently be supporting the kesler in the top 50 argument

    :)
     
  16. Evman*

    Evman* Guest

    Do PIMs quantify what kind of game a player plays? Maybe they can differentiate between Tie Domi and Robert Reichel, but that's about it.
     
  17. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    We don't want to make this into another Kesler thread .PLEASE !!!!!

    .. but like Mark Stuart being left off the TOP 50 as well .. its his offensive game like Kesler that is keeping them off despite both players strong defensive games ..but that reflects on the word POTENTIAL that you do not like ..

    In this case I feel Both Wellwood and Higgins will be look for their offensive games at the next level and be counted on to score ..

    and it really is not about any list ... that is irrelevant ..yet it gives credibility to Higgins that he happen to make it ... but despite proving his contractors wrong Wellwood has been ever bit as successful statistically as Higgins ..
     
  18. cj

    cj Registered User

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    Defence can be taught, but if your argument is that Wellwood should be on the top 50 list because Higgins is, you can't use a "what if" argument to justify it.

    Basically, if Higgins has the clear advantage in defense, physical play and skating (as indicated in their HF profiles) and Wellwood only has the advantage in offense, obviously Wellwood would have to be quite a bit better than Higgins offensively to make him a better or even equal prospect.

    As for the +/- stat...well, as you said this year's stats weren't figured in so... ;)
     
  19. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Just one indicator that reflects style .. We don't have a # of hits stat between the two to use and its not like we are seeing a Theo Fleury like play from either smaller player here .. Right ???
     
  20. cj

    cj Registered User

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    Oh, just wanted to add that you are probably going to want to edit the title of the thread to spell Chris Higgins name right before you get Habs fans jumping all over you. :)
     
  21. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Again ... Not intended to get Wellwood on any list ... NOT AT ALL ..

    But I picked two prospects from different teams that seem very similar in many categories and asking the honest question with so many things similar why are they so different in PROSPECT POTENTIAL rankings ??

    While skating speed is a factor, we have both seen many great Skaters as prospects that have not succeeded at the NHL level .. so how much of a factor should that be in weighting a prospect .. If you can take two players in the same league AHL and see similar STATS ..

    Wellwood 55 points .. Higgins 48 points both in their ROOKIE AHL seasons ..

    Does it matter if one player is a faster skater??
     
  22. Epsilon

    Epsilon #basta

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    Don't Peter Sarno's numbers compare favorably to Wellwood's?
     
  23. cj

    cj Registered User

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    Yes. Skating is a big factor in determining whether they'll be able to transfer their games to the NHL.
     
  24. Jeffrey

    Jeffrey Registered User

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    Higgins is all about work ethic ...
    he will do whatever it takes to suceed .. he's a fabulous skater with lots of skills., he's also a premier defensive player and a good leader ...
    while wellwood is more like corey locke from the habs ... lot's of hockey skills and good vision but doesnt have enough speed,grit and defensive awareness to fully suceed in the NHL ...
    it's like comparing Matt Stajan vs Corey locke ... (not statisticaly but more like player style)
    anyway higgins and the FULL bulldogs squad just can't do nothing offensively this year.. he's still the most complete player you could find and he fully deserve his top 50 rating! you just have to look more farther than just stats .. stats dont dont tell all the story!
     
  25. think-blue-

    think-blue- Registered User

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    Especially when they're relatively small in size (i.e. below average) too, I would think.
     
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