Chris Higgins for Jesse Niinimaki,Tomas Micka

[HuskyFlames]

My point exactly. How can you say they "DIDN'T NEED TO TRADE UP"? And you CANNOT say Edmonton had no intention in drafting Higgins, you have no basis. I could go and say that maybe Edmonton thought the Habs wanted to take Niitimaki(sp?), thought they would still get Higgins at 15, and got screwed? Just maybe..

The only way to know would be to have a view on an alternate reality where the Habs didn't trade up. Then we could know if it indeed was a wasted asset or not. Unfortunately, we don't.

Stop being a homer. If Edmonton coveted Hiigins they would not trade down at ALL.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Whatever. I don't think that Hab fans will be thumping their chest that they got a guy like Higgins with a 15th overall pick.

Why won't they? He's a great prospect who will be an impact player at the NHL level. If I was a Habs fan I'd be pleased as punch he's in my organization.

 

[Lowetide]

One thing that might have happened (haven't read it in this post sorry if I missed it) is that Edmonton may have been talking to two clubs about the pick. Maybe Montreal felt the other team was interested in Higgins just as much as they were.


As an aside, Edmonton not being interested in Higgins is more a reflection on Oilers management than Higgins imo.

 

[Jeffrey]

From what I remember ...
the habs made the trade because they were very very interested in higgins and nobody else ...
but also because Edmonton wanted to move down because they knew nobody would select Niinimaki..
montreal didnt want any team to move up before them and pick higgins in front of their face .. so they move up one spot and secure higgins ..
IMO montreal didn't wasted any pick .. IMO it was a smart move!

 

[HuskyFlames]

From what I remember ...
the habs made the trade because they were very very interested in higgins and nobody else ...
but also because Edmonton wanted to move down because they knew nobody would select Niinimaki..
montreal didnt want any team to move up before them and pick higgins in front of their face .. so they move up one spot and secure higgins ..
IMO montreal didn't wasted any pick .. IMO it was a smart move!

I really don't se emany teams asking Edmonton to tarde down, besdies the Habs as the extra pick they got WAS an 8th round pick, nothing great. If teams were fighting over the Oilers pick and wanting Higgins bad, Edmonton compensation would have been more than an 8th round pick. With that said, Edmonton didn't want Higgins, so it was a waste of a pick for Montreal to move up since no other team was biting with Edmonton or else compensation would have been more fierce.

 

[Rahan]

Stop being a homer. If Edmonton coveted Hiigins they would not trade down at ALL.

Homer? I don't know, I thought I was just pointing out that you just don't know more than I do about what could have happened, and therefore your posts are useless. Thanks for trying, though.

To answer your newest statement, well maybe they thought "What the hell, no one will want Higgins so early, so let's get an extra pick and still get him one spot later!" and it didn't go their way? YOU.DON'T.KNOW.

You might be right, but nobody can tell. I just can't let you say the Habs made a mistake when in fact you _can't_ say it was useless, because you don't know what could have happened. And I think I'm stating the obvious, so it must not be that hard to understand, is it?

 

[HuskyFlames]

The chances of Edmonton wanting Higgins is very nill. Do the statistics of it yourself. How many prospects there are plus how many teams. The probability of Edmonton picking Higgins is very low.

 

[KILLger]

The chances of Edmonton wanting Higgins is very nill. Do the statistics of it yourself. How many prospects there are plus how many teams. The probability of Edmonton picking Higgins is very low.

Yet the probabilities of an 8th rounder turning out are even lower. They had a doubt and have given up on something not too baluable to clear that doubt.

They had the guy they wanted and he's proving very promising. End of story.

 

[dawgbone]

Holy cripes folks... chill out.

The Oilers were picking Niinimaki all the way. No interest in Higgins what so ever. Edmonton got an 8th round pick and picked the player they would have picked anyways.

Montreal gave up an 8th round pick, and got the player they wanted, even though they would have got him with their own pick.

Irregardless of how well Niinimaki and Higgins turn out, it has no bearing on the trade. The Oilers didn't draft Higgins and trade him for Niinimaki and an 8th round pick. How they had the players scouted and ranked in terms of the draft really has no bearing on the actual trade value. The Oilers didn't lose out on Higgins because they traded away the right to pick him first... they lost out on Higgins because they wanted Niinimaki instead.

There's a big difference. The Oilers picked the player they wanted anyways, + got an extra pick in the draft. The Habs got the player that they would have been able to pick at 15, and lost a pick. It's pretty obvious that the Oilers won the trade.

If it's any consolation, Higgins is going to play quite a few more NHL games than Niinimaki will, and you certainly did better with your pick... but that has nothing to do with the trade.

 

[dawgbone]

Yet the probabilities of an 8th rounder turning out are even lower. They had a doubt and have given up on something not too baluable to clear that doubt.

No they aren't lower. The Oilers had no intention of picking Higgins over Niinimaki. Obviously without hindsight the Canadiens wouldn't have known this, but all trades (in terms of winner and loser discussions by fans) are based on hindsight. If the Canadiens had the hindsight of knowing the Oilers were picking Niinimaki, would they have made the trade?

No, they wouldn't have. That to me means the Oilers won the trade. But it's all semantics anyways. The Habs lost the trade, but made a better selection... so in the end the Habs came out ahead.

They had the guy they wanted and he's proving very promising. End of story.

They would have had the same promising player had they not traded away a pick to get him... and that's the part of the trade that should be analyzed.

 

[Darcy Wakaluk]

I really don't se emany teams asking Edmonton to tarde down, besdies the Habs as the extra pick they got WAS an 8th round pick, nothing great. If teams were fighting over the Oilers pick and wanting Higgins bad, Edmonton compensation would have been more than an 8th round pick. With that said, Edmonton didn't want Higgins, so it was a waste of a pick for Montreal to move up since no other team was biting with Edmonton or else compensation would have been more fierce.

Ummm... I don't rate an 8th rounder as that important an asset.

If there's a guy still on the board that you're really high on, you should try to make a move to land him. I agree, moving up one spot isn't that much, but neither is an 8th round pick. It's hard to argue with success, and judging by the progress Higgins has made since being drafted, that trade is looking like a very savvy move by Montreal.

 

[HuskyFlames]

Ummm... I don't rate an 8th rounder as that important an asset.

If there's a guy still on the board that you're really high on, you should try to make a move to land him. I agree, moving up one spot isn't that much, but neither is an 8th round pick. It's hard to argue with success, and judging by the progress Higgins has made since being drafted, that trade is looking like a very savvy move by Montreal.

Theres actually been quite a few high end guys who have been late round picks. Just need good scouting.

 

[Cerebral]

Ummm... I don't rate an 8th rounder as that important an asset.

If there's a guy still on the board that you're really high on, you should try to make a move to land him. I agree, moving up one spot isn't that much, but neither is an 8th round pick. It's hard to argue with success, and judging by the progress Higgins has made since being drafted, that trade is looking like a very savvy move by Montreal.

It's definitely not a super valuable asset but such players as Exelby, Ryder, Skrastins, Laaksonen, Rachunek, Pisani, Mitchell, Kaberle, Sami Salo, Kuba, Markov, Nabokov, Hedberg, Vokoun, Grahame (how about 1994 - 4 starting goaltenders taken in the 9th round!), Sullivan, Zednik, Berezin, Holmstrom, Tarnstrom, Johnsson and more have been taken in the 8th+ rounds in the last 10 years. That is a number of solid NHL players and at least one good NHL player has been typically found in those spots every year. Granted the odds aren't great but every draft pick is still pretty important.

I wouldn't grade Montreal's move as savvy. They got the player they wanted but they sacrificed a pick for no reason. The savvy move would have been to keep the pick and grab Higgins without making a deal. It doesn't really matter anyway, Micka is unlikely to develop into an NHL player...

 

[TwineSniper]

Theres actually been quite a few high end guys who have been late round picks. Just need good scouting.

flawed one-sided statement if I ever heard one.

As a percentage, how many 8th round picks have made a significant impact in the NHL since drafting was created?

If I were to guess, I would have to say it's under 10%, and that's being conservative.

Therefore, it was well worth the risk, IMO.

 

[HuskyFlames]

flawed one-sided statement if I ever heard one.

As a percentage, how many 8th round picks have made a significant impact in the NHL since drafting was created?

If I were to guess, I would have to say it's under 10%, and that's being conservative.

Therefore, it was well worth the risk, IMO.

WOW, you posted that even AFTER the post before you states a ton of current NHL players taking late in drafts.

 

[Cerebral]

WOW, you posted that even AFTER the post before you states a ton of current NHL players taking late in drafts.

Including four pretty good goaltenders all selected in the 9th round in the same season...

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

WOW, you posted that even AFTER the post before you states a ton of current NHL players taking late in drafts.

But even though you're talking about "late rounds", that's not really the issue here.

This is ONE particular 8th rounder, and the chance of ONE particular 8th rounder to pan out is extremely thin.

The chance of an 8th rounder to reach the NHL *at all* are in the neighborhood of 15%. The chance of an 8th rounder to *stick* in the NHL for a significant period of time are even more slim.

And the chance of an 8th rounder to stick to the NHL for a significant period of time AND make a significant contribution to the team are close to nil. That is undeniable fact.

What follows is a matter of opinion but as far as I'm concerned, I'd much rather secure the assets I want from the top first, because they are most likely NHLers AND the most likely significant contributors on the team.

I will also tell you that IMO, the difference between some of the guys 3-4 spots apart in the first round can be much greater than the difference between an 8th rounder and an undrafted kid.

The undrafted kids you can sign to contracts post draft are sometimes basically pretty similar to some of the 8th round guys.

An 8th rounder is an expendable asset if it allows you to secure your guy. Which Montreal did. And it looks like a good decision so far.

In the case of Edmonton, if they really wanted Niinimaki all along, kudos for them for securing an extra 8th rounder (seems like a crappy deal to me, would expect them to get more, even if it means getting a lower first round pick)

Reportedly, it looks like Niinimaki might not have been that great a choice from what I read. But I'd rather see the guy again before I comment further.

To determine who won this deal, we'll have to see how the assets pan out. Hence, it is impossible to determine a winner at this time. Strategically, so far I have to give it up for the Habs. They secured a guy who is progressing nicely in exchange for a garbage pick.

Contrary to what you suggest, it takes a lot more than "good drafting" to get a high end guy there. The stars need to be aligned to get that kind of player with your 8th rounder.

 

[MS]

But even though you're talking about "late rounds", that's not really the issue here.

This is ONE particular 8th rounder, and the chance of ONE particular 8th rounder to pan out is extremely thin.

The chance of an 8th rounder to reach the NHL *at all* are in the neighborhood of 15%. The chance of an 8th rounder to *stick* in the NHL for a significant period of time are even more slim.

And the chance of an 8th rounder to stick to the NHL for a significant period of time AND make a significant contribution to the team are close to nil. That is undeniable fact.

What follows is a matter of opinion but as far as I'm concerned, I'd much rather secure the assets I want from the top first, because they are most likely NHLers AND the most likely significant contributors on the team.

I will also tell you that IMO, the difference between some of the guys 3-4 spots apart in the first round can be much greater than the difference between an 8th rounder and an undrafted kid.

The undrafted kids you can sign to contracts post draft are sometimes basically pretty similar to some of the 8th round guys.

An 8th rounder is an expendable asset if it allows you to secure your guy. Which Montreal did. And it looks like a good decision so far.

In the case of Edmonton, if they really wanted Niinimaki all along, kudos for them for securing an extra 8th rounder (seems like a crappy deal to me, would expect them to get more, even if it means getting a lower first round pick)

Reportedly, it looks like Niinimaki might not have been that great a choice from what I read. But I'd rather see the guy again before I comment further.

To determine who won this deal, we'll have to see how the assets pan out. Hence, it is impossible to determine a winner at this time. Strategically, so far I have to give it up for the Habs. They secured a guy who is progressing nicely in exchange for a garbage pick.

Contrary to what you suggest, it takes a lot more than "good drafting" to get a high end guy there. The stars need to be aligned to get that kind of player with your 8th rounder.

In principle I agree with you. If there's a guy in the first couple rounds you really want, it's usually worth sacrificing later picks to get it done.

But situations where teams are only dropping one draft slot are different cases. The team trading down is essentially bluffing and playing on the other team's anxiety over getting the player they want. Savard should have had the patience and common sense to realize that if Edmonton was willing to drop a spot for as little as he was, that Lowe was going off the board with his pick, that Higgins would still be available, and that tossing away an 8th rounder wasn't necessary. Yeah, it isn't much, but it's still an asset.

What Niinimaki and Higgins accomplish in their careers is irrelevant, really. Both would have ended up with the same teams had the deal not been made, and whether they succeed or fail has nothing to do with the base elements of the deal. Edmonton got a free 8th round pick, Montreal gave up an 8th round pick for no real reason. Edmonton wins the deal. Then their scouts screw up the pick.

Same deal as with Nashville-SJ in 1998. SJ had Brad Stuart rated #2, and were going to take him #2 if they couldn't move down a slot. But they knew most everyone had Legwand #2. So Lombardi was able to bluff David Poile into giving a #2 pick for a player he would have ended up with anyway. Bad move, panic move.

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

In principle I agree with you. If there's a guy in the first couple rounds you really want, it's usually worth sacrificing later picks to get it done.

But situations where teams are only dropping one draft slot are different cases. The team trading down is essentially bluffing and playing on the other team's anxiety over getting the player they want. Savard should have had the patience and common sense to realize that if Edmonton was willing to drop a spot for as little as he was, that Lowe was going off the board with his pick, that Higgins would still be available

A logical explanation, but done after the fact. The rest is speculation. It is because Savard secured the pick that things turned the way they did. But who is to say Edmonton wouldn't have traded down further had Savard not moved?

It is a speculation I find as valid as the one you you suggest. It's really all up in the air.

We can even speculate further. If The Oilers *really* wanted to go off the board, why did they drop only one spot? Truly, I find their behavior in that deal (if we want to enter the speculative realm) WAY more erratic and fruitless.

They're going to drop one position, secure a garbage pick so they can draft some loser who should go in round 3? That doesn't sound like something logical to me.

Really, I think you are looking at this deal taking hindsight heavily into account. Because what dropping one spot lower suggests is that you want to be VERY close to where you are.

I've done countless drafts and if I feel pressured to move up, it's usually because I am dead set on a player and see no more options I like enough. Now, granted, I can't understand why the Habs felt that way (there were damn nice players still available, more than one) but hey, they felt that way.

As for the Oilers (still on the speculative track, here) I can't understand why they moved down only one spot. They sure fooled the Habs but accomplished little, got a garbage pick and made a selection that seems underwhelming so far.

Truthfully, no, I can't say I would have known for sure Higgins would be available. Speculations aside, the fact he was willing to move down for as little as an 8th rounder is more indicative to me that they were only trading down one spot. That Lowe was comfortable getting any of TWO players (at least) while Savard was only comfortable getting one player.

What Niinimaki and Higgins accomplish in their careers is irrelevant, really. Both would have ended up with the same teams had the deal not been made, and whether they succeed or fail has nothing to do with the base elements of the deal. Edmonton got a free 8th round pick, Montreal gave up an 8th round pick for no real reason.

I don't understand this. They move up and get the pick so that nobody else can pick there. Seems very logical to me. Again, the rest is pure speculation, which I think you are looking at in hindsight.

I can understand if you like gambling. I don't. I've been in dozens of drafts (I'm sure you have to) and have been surprised so often that I consider it extremely futile to try and predict how things will go.


If I have two players left on my list and I am next picking, and the guy just behind me is anxious, I'm going to offer him a similar swap. It's no trick or anything. There's no wizardry.

Yeah, in that case, it appears Lowe had his sight on a different player, a much less "popular" player. He sure fooled Savard but that's only because he took the wrong approach. If he really wanted to go off the board, he needed to hunt a trade partner with an off-the-board ranked pick.

As it is, once the smokescreen is off, it looks like Savard secured his player for a garbage pick.

I don't see this as a panic move. I see this as pocket change for piece of mind. But that's me

 

[MS]

I don't see this as a panic move. I see this as pocket change for piece of mind. But that's me

I guess this is true enough. And it's difficult to criticise the way things have turned out for Montreal.

All trades are evaluated with hindsight, though. You can justify any trade by sticking to 'at the time'. Barry Pederson for Cam Neely looked great 'at the time'. Hindsight says Montreal didn't need to make this deal. True that they didn't know it at the time. But same as every other trade, judge it on what happened.

I probably have a bias against these moves because of Brian Burke's track record here in Vancouver. Pretty well every trade he made for 3 or 4 years, he was throwing in a mid-late pick in all of them. Pissed away a couple picks in really stupid fashion. And it added up, when we were only going to the draft with 6-7 picks/year instead of 9-10, and had a noticeable effect on the farm system. So it might be my own bias speaking to an extent ...

 

[KILLger]

WOW, you posted that even AFTER the post before you states a ton of current NHL players taking late in drafts.

He named 21 players from the past 10 years. There are 30 players from one round, gives 300. There were also some 9th rounders but I'm not going to check how many and just use the 8th round.

21/300 = 7%

Oh my god, that's so many chances! I'm going to tell Savard to gather the 8 th rounders, they are golden.

 

[417]

Again, you make good points Patrick Flames-Fan...but I still don't see how you know 100% sure that Edmonton wouldn't of drafted Higgins, what first hand knowledge do you have which can support this...there are other scenarios, which could of happened...

- Edmonton had Higgins on their draft board and didin't expect him to be available at their pick, which prompted Montreal to trade up...

- Montreal could of had first hand knowledge that another team wanted to trade up with Edmonton with the possibility of picking Higgins...

I'm not saying your wrong, you could indeed be right that Edmonton wouldn't of picked Higgins as they were set on Niinimaki, but if that's the case, it makes Edmonton look bad as they should of gotten more than an 8th rounder, they should of traded down with another team in the 1st round, moved down further than 15th and acquired a higher pick than an 8th round...at least IMO...

Montreal takes a chance, albeit a very small and minute one, and trade up 1 spot to secure the player they wanted...for every 8th rounder you name me that's made it to the NHL and has made an impact, I can name you about 30 for every draft that hasn't

 

[JohnnyReb]

How is this for investigative speculation on a slow day?

Ottawa Senators Staff: (to themselves) Dang, we'd really like to get that Higgins kid. Reminds us of Fisher, but we've heard through the grapevine that Andre Savard really likes him too. Shut-up you Hockey's Future wannabes! He does remind us of Fisher! Curse us for letting Savard go to Montreal! He thinks too much like we do!

Montreal Canadiens Staff: (to themselves) Higgins! Higgins! Higgins! And he should be available for us to pick at #15!

Edmonton Oilers Staff: (to themselves) Niinimaki! Niinimaki! Niinimaki! And he should be available for us to pick at #14!

Ottawa Senators Staff: (to Edmonton) Hey, uh, how's it going? Good, good... Uh, look, we'd like to get our hands on Chris Higgins, and we know you don't want him, but we also suspect Montreal wants him at #15. We keep seeing all their scouts at his games, and we don't see any of yours. Why don't we give you our #16 pick, and a 8th rounder, so we can jump ahead of Montreal?

Edmonton Oilers Staff: (to Ottawa) Niinimaki! Niinimaki! Niinimaki! What? 8th rounder? That's kind of weak, lets see if we can play this off against Montreal, and get us a decent pick! Yaaaaaay, us!

Montreal Canadiens Staff: (to Ottawa) Sacre-bleu! Maudits federalists de Ottawa!!! All right. We will play your little game. We'll give you the 15th pick, which is ahead of Ottawa's first round pick, and we will give you OUR 8th round pick, which is one better than Ottawa's 8th round pick. Not much better, but still...

Edmonton Oilers Staff: (to Ottawa) Niinimaki! Niinimaki! Niinimaki! Yaaaaaay, us! Montreal's 8th rounder is better than your 8th rounder, nanny-nanny-boo-boo! Why don't you give us your 1st rounder, and a 7th rounder? Ain't negotiation fun!

Ottawa Senators Staff: (to Edmonton) Ummm... That's nice and all, but Tampa has offered us Josef Boumedienne for that 7th round. Josef Boumedienne! We can't turn that down... 6th round pick... Ummm, we gave that to Tampa too. Juha Ylonen man! Juha Ylonen!!! 5th round pick... Gee, that's kind of steep, just to move up 2 spots... Plus, it will mean we won't have a pick in the 5th, 6th, or 7th rounds... Shucks. Looks like the best we can do is that 8th rounder.

Montreal Canadiens Staff: (to Ottawa) Pffft! Our 8th rounder is better than your 8th rounder!! We win! We win! Higgins! Higgins! Higgins!



Hey. It could have happened.

 

[HuskyFlames]

He named 21 players from the past 10 years. There are 30 players from one round, gives 300. There were also some 9th rounders but I'm not going to check how many and just use the 8th round.

21/300 = 7%

Oh my god, that's so many chances! I'm going to tell Savard to gather the 8 th rounders, they are golden.

Here are some guys that I noticed (qyikcly looking at it drafted in round 8).

Jim Dowd, Theoren Fleury, Shjon Podein, Sean Hill, Peter Bondra, Janne Laukkanen, Brian Savage, Stephane Yelle, Manny Legace, Hal Gill, Filip Kuba, Fernando Pisani, Tomas Kaberle, Antti Laaksonen, Andrew Ference, Michael Ryder, Garnet Exelby, Radek Martinek

Then you have guys taken after the 8th round, who could have been picked in the 8th round as well:

Ken Klee, Jaroslav Modry, Nikolai Khabibulin, Anson Carter, Dan McGillis, Mike Grier, Pavol Demitra, Johan Hedberg, Evgeny Nabokov, Bill Muckalt, Tomas Vokoun, John Grahame, Steve Sullivan, Sergei Berezin, Tomas Holmstrom, Kim Johnsson, Danil Markov, Ronald Petrovicky

So yes, while the chance of getting a good player in the lower rounds is lower than a 1st round, there are still high impact players that are taken every year in the 8th round or lower and a ton of role players as well. Giving up an 8th rounder for pretty much nothing, gives away the chance to draft the next diamond in the rough..the next Demitra or the countless NHL goalies that have been taken as well.

 

[417]

Here are some guys that I noticed (qyikcly looking at it drafted in round 8).

Jim Dowd, Theoren Fleury, Shjon Podein, Sean Hill, Peter Bondra, Janne Laukkanen, Brian Savage, Stephane Yelle, Manny Legace, Hal Gill, Filip Kuba, Fernando Pisani, Tomas Kaberle, Antti Laaksonen, Andrew Ference, Michael Ryder, Garnet Exelby, Radek Martinek

Then you have guys taken after the 8th round, who could have been picked in the 8th round as well:

Ken Klee, Jaroslav Modry, Nikolai Khabibulin, Anson Carter, Dan McGillis, Mike Grier, Pavol Demitra, Johan Hedberg, Evgeny Nabokov, Bill Muckalt, Tomas Vokoun, John Grahame, Steve Sullivan, Sergei Berezin, Tomas Holmstrom, Kim Johnsson, Danil Markov, Ronald Petrovicky

So yes, while the chance of getting a good player in the lower rounds is lower than a 1st round, there are still high impact players that are taken every year in the 8th round or lower and a ton of role players as well. Giving up an 8th rounder for pretty much nothing, gives away the chance to draft the next diamond in the rough..the next Demitra or the countless NHL goalies that have been taken as well.

How about you try listing all the players since let's say 1995 drafted after round 8, who haven't made it...

Good luck, by the time your done posting them all, the NHL will have resumed operations


Point is...

traded 8th round pick = very low risk

Chris Higgins = High reward (at least the way it looks right now)