Prospect Info: CHL, NCAA and European 2018-19 Prospects Thread II

[Call Me Al]

it certainly bodes much better than if he wasn't producing at this age and level, how that projects to the nhl we have to wait and see.

regardless how anyone can be anything less than thrilled with this 7th round pick and his development (as long as he signs with NJ) is beyond me - we don't need to (and shouldn't) predict top pairing potential to be happy that he is shaping up to be a viable nhl defensemen.

 

[tailfins]

Greene was a force his junior and senior year and produced a lot of offense. He was his conferences offensive and defensive defenseman of the year in the same year.

I’d love Andy Greene’s career from most late first round picks.

People underestimate how good Greene was in college. Coming into the NHL, people (including me) thought he was going to be an offensive defenseman.

Andy Greene's career is one of the reasons I am cautious about Davies. Looking at Greene's career, you'd think he was destined to be a star. Miami University called him "arguably the best defensemen to ever skate in a Miami uniform" - and Dan Boyle was there just a few years prior.

Miami's Andy Greene Signs With NHL's New Jersey Devils - Miami University RedHawks

Then Greene got to the NHL and for the first couple of years, it wasn't even clear if he was going to stick. We look back and it seems clear that Greene was always a top 4 dman. But, it took a lot of work even after getting to the NHL for Greene to really carve out his place.

Davies certainly has potential and I'm excited about him, but I just don't see him being some kind of slam dunk improvement on the Devils left side next year.

 

[Triumph]

I'm not going to review the thread, but I don't get the sense anyone is arguing that Davies is going to be a definite improvement on the left side next season. I don't really think Andy Greene is an argument one way or another - it took him a while to figure out the NHL, but that's not a standard progression.

 

[tailfins]

I'm not going to review the thread, but I don't get the sense anyone is arguing that Davies is going to be a definite improvement on the left side next season. I don't really think Andy Greene is an argument one way or another - it took him a while to figure out the NHL, but that's not a standard progression.

What is "standard progression" for an older NCAA prospect?

Seriously asking. I don't follow this that closely. From the little I've seen, it seems to take some time to figure out the NHL. Butcher, Pionk, Belpedio are the ones I just looked at and they each seem to be going through some growing pains.

 

[My3Sons]

What is "standard progression" for an older NCAA prospect?

Seriously asking. I don't follow this that closely. From the little I've seen, it seems to take some time to figure out the NHL. Butcher, Pionk, Belpedio are the ones I just looked at and they each seem to be going through some growing pains.

It’s a long time ago but maybe something along the lines of Eric Weinrich?

 

[None Shall Pass]

People underestimate how good Greene was in college. Coming into the NHL, people (including me) thought he was going to be an offensive defenseman.

Andy Greene's career is one of the reasons I am cautious about Davies. Looking at Greene's career, you'd think he was destined to be a star. Miami University called him "arguably the best defensemen to ever skate in a Miami uniform" - and Dan Boyle was there just a few years prior.

Miami's Andy Greene Signs With NHL's New Jersey Devils - Miami University RedHawks

Then Greene got to the NHL and for the first couple of years, it wasn't even clear if he was going to stick. We look back and it seems clear that Greene was always a top 4 dman. But, it took a lot of work even after getting to the NHL for Greene to really carve out his place.

Davies certainly has potential and I'm excited about him, but I just don't see him being some kind of slam dunk improvement on the Devils left side next year.

It's pretty funny how many people have forgotten how bad Greene was in his first few NHL years. This board was Severson-divided on him.

 

[Goptor]

It's pretty funny how many people have forgotten how bad Greene was in his first few NHL years. This board was Severson-divided on him.

I remember him getting scored against several times in his first preseason against the Rangers. The Rangers fans were flaunting their preseason cup and needed to be reminded that they are playing against players named Greene.

He played more AHL games than NHL games his first season and was a part time player for the following two years.

 

[Triumph]

What is "standard progression" for an older NCAA prospect?

Seriously asking. I don't follow this that closely. From the little I've seen, it seems to take some time to figure out the NHL. Butcher, Pionk, Belpedio are the ones I just looked at and they each seem to be going through some growing pains.

It's to jump into the NHL right away, like Will Butcher did. Butcher was a 3rd pairing D in his first year and a 2nd pairing D this year. I was going to say that I didn't think Pionk would ever be any good but he's also paired with one of the worst D in the NHL and they've had a ton of time together, so maybe he's decent already and Staal is masking that. Belpedio doesn't fit your criteria - yes, he played all 4 years at college, but he was still only 21 when he got out. That said, most guys who spend a season in the minors after 4 years of college don't have much success.

Greene couldn't be called up in 06-07 until the Devils got sufficient salary cap room so it's hard to know whether he would've spent that half-season in the minors if not for that.

 

[devilsblood]

Davies has serious roadblocks to jumping to the NHL next year.

In addition to the 2 lhd we have signed for next year, we also have Smith who I just can't see not being in the NHL next year, and there is the style of play consideration.

Butcher is a small, and fairly young, offensive minded d-man. Smith is a legit 2 way guy I think, but he is definitely small, and definitely young, even if long term he is a guy you trust in his own end, he is not going to get tough minutes as a 19 year old rookie.

Even though Greene is looking like a roadblock to improvement, he does play a role non of these other guys are going to be ready to play.

Likewise, Mueller, even though he is going to be inferior in many respects to these puck movers, might be a guy we need to play PK, to play tough minutes.

So where does Davies, a small, young offensive minded d-man fit in that mix? Without a trade of one of the young small d-man I don't think he does, and even then I'm not seeing a clear cut spot.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don’t think this staff cares too much about size. Also they have zero qualms scratching Mueller for someone like Yak so I seriously doubt he will be a roadblock for Davies.

 

[devilsblood]

I don’t think this staff cares too much about size. Also they have zero qualms scratching Mueller for someone like Yak so I seriously doubt he will be a roadblock for Davies.

Mueller has played 42 games, Yak 14. Yak is 27 years old and was a 6 year KHL veteran.

I guess I could see Davies getting a spot start here or there while Mueller sits, but I's be pretty surprised if we see that regularly.

 

[My3Sons]

Davies has serious roadblocks to jumping to the NHL next year.

In addition to the 2 lhd we have signed for next year, we also have Smith who I just can't see not being in the NHL next year, and there is the style of play consideration.

Butcher is a small, and fairly young, offensive minded d-man. Smith is a legit 2 way guy I think, but he is definitely small, and definitely young, even if long term he is a guy you trust in his own end, he is not going to get tough minutes as a 19 year old rookie.

Even though Greene is looking like a roadblock to improvement, he does play a role non of these other guys are going to be ready to play.

Likewise, Mueller, even though he is going to be inferior in many respects to these puck movers, might be a guy we need to play PK, to play tough minutes.

So where does Davies, a small, young offensive minded d-man fit in that mix? Without a trade of one of the young small d-man I don't think he does, and even then I'm not seeing a clear cut spot.

You bring him to camp and it wouldn’t shock me if Davies is initially well ahead of Smith. Davies has played against much tougher competition than Smith and being older should be more sophisticated even if he isn’t as talented. If Smith can’t beat him out then the team has a decision to make about sending Smith down or maybe moving on from Greene if Mueller can handle those minutes.

 

[devilsblood]

You bring him to camp and it wouldn’t shock me if Davies is initially well ahead of Smith. Davies has played against much tougher competition than Smith and being older should be more sophisticated even if he isn’t as talented. If Smith can’t beat him out then the team has a decision to make about sending Smith down or maybe moving on from Greene if Mueller can handle those minutes.

It's such a log jam of guys, all but one of whom will be under the age of 25 to start next season, 2 of whom will have yet to play an NHL game, none of whom would be considered close to being a top pairing guy, that I can't really figure how it plays out.

 

[Nubmer6]

You bring him to camp and it wouldn’t shock me if Davies is initially well ahead of Smith. Davies has played against much tougher competition than Smith and being older should be more sophisticated even if he isn’t as talented. If Smith can’t beat him out then the team has a decision to make about sending Smith down or maybe moving on from Greene if Mueller can handle those minutes.

It would be SO much easier next year if Smith were eligible for the AHL. Stupid minor league rules.

 

[Triumph]

Davies has serious roadblocks to jumping to the NHL next year.

In addition to the 2 lhd we have signed for next year, we also have Smith who I just can't see not being in the NHL next year, and there is the style of play consideration.

Butcher is a small, and fairly young, offensive minded d-man. Smith is a legit 2 way guy I think, but he is definitely small, and definitely young, even if long term he is a guy you trust in his own end, he is not going to get tough minutes as a 19 year old rookie.

Even though Greene is looking like a roadblock to improvement, he does play a role non of these other guys are going to be ready to play.

Likewise, Mueller, even though he is going to be inferior in many respects to these puck movers, might be a guy we need to play PK, to play tough minutes.

So where does Davies, a small, young offensive minded d-man fit in that mix? Without a trade of one of the young small d-man I don't think he does, and even then I'm not seeing a clear cut spot.

When a player plays well, room is made for him. Smith is likely to start the season here, but where is he at game 40? Still here, or back in junior? Mueller's spot on the team is far from solidified. And there's usually injuries.

We'll know a lot more if Davies debuts in the NHL this season.

 

[tailfins]

It's to jump into the NHL right away, like Will Butcher did. Butcher was a 3rd pairing D in his first year and a 2nd pairing D this year. I was going to say that I didn't think Pionk would ever be any good but he's also paired with one of the worst D in the NHL and they've had a ton of time together, so maybe he's decent already and Staal is masking that. Belpedio doesn't fit your criteria - yes, he played all 4 years at college, but he was still only 21 when he got out. That said, most guys who spend a season in the minors after 4 years of college don't have much success.

Greene couldn't be called up in 06-07 until the Devils got sufficient salary cap room so it's hard to know whether he would've spent that half-season in the minors if not for that.

I don't know. Belpedio was 21, but he turned 22 just after his NCAA season ended, while Davies turned 22 in the middle of the season. The 5 months doesn't seem like a huge difference. Mike Reilly is another college all-star. Split time between Minny and Iowa, and now a part timer in the Montreal. Even Butcher is basically a bottom 4 guy on one of the worst defenses in the league (even using xGA). He likely isn't cracking the top 4 on a playoff contender - and could even be a part-timer.

It feels to me like the gap between the NCAA and NHL is huge, and success in college - particularly at a later age - doesn't guarantee much in terms of performance at the pros. My sense is that we shouldn't be disappointed if Davies starts the year in the AHL.

 

[Triumph]

I don't know. Belpedio was 21, but he turned 22 just after his NCAA season ended, while Davies turned 22 in the middle of the season. The 5 months doesn't seem like a huge difference. Mike Reilly is another college all-star. Split time between Minny and Iowa, and now a part timer in the Montreal. Even Butcher is basically a bottom 4 guy on one of the worst defenses in the league (even using xGA). He likely isn't cracking the top 4 on a playoff contender - and could even be a part-timer.

Belpedio graduated as a 21 year old - he's 7 months older than Davies and he's already completed 4 years in college and is playing his first full pro season. So it does seem like a pretty big difference to me - Davies started college 2 years later.

You severely underrate Butcher here - he is the best 5 on 5 defenseman on the team.

It feels to me like the gap between the NCAA and NHL is huge, and success in college - particularly at a later age - doesn't guarantee much in terms of performance at the pros. My sense is that we shouldn't be disappointed if Davies starts the year in the AHL.

Success in any league besides the NHL doesn't guarantee much in terms of performance in the pros. I won't be disappointed if Davies is sent to the AHL - I will be if he's not called up.

 

[Emperoreddy]

It would be SO much easier next year if Smith were eligible for the AHL. Stupid minor league rules.

Not really? Even if he was eligible there is no way Smith starts the season there.

 

[Nubmer6]

Not really? Even if he was eligible there is no way Smith starts the season there.

Why would you say that? He hasn't played a single NHL game yet. The AHL would be a much better option than juniors if he didn't seem ready for the NHL yet, or if we signed Davies and he somehow outperformed Smith in the pre-season.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

The way I see it, if Davies can't outperform Smith in training camp/preseason next year then we have issues. I have no doubt Smith will be the better player in the log run, but next year? Idk...Davies should be better at this point (assuming he becomes an nhl regular).

Ideally they get rid of greene somehow.

 

[Nubmer6]

The way I see it, if Davies can't outperform Smith in training camp/preseason next year then we have issues. I have no doubt Smith will be the better player in the log run, but next year? Idk...Davies should be better at this point (assuming he becomes an nhl regular).

Ideally they get rid of greene somehow.

I love Greene, but I agree. At this point he's just blocking progression.

I'm not sure Davies should be currently better than Smith. I know he's older, but I don't think that automatically makes him better.

Ideally though, we'd have a Provorov/Gostisphere situation where they're both good and they force us to make room for them.

 

[MichaelJ]

Not really? Even if he was eligible there is no way Smith starts the season there.

Does he really have any more growth left in juniors?

 

[My3Sons]

Does he really have any more growth left in juniors?

There is something to learn just about anywhere but realistically he appears to be well past the point of diminishing returns. If he was sent to a Memorial Cup favorite to have a long playoff run that would probably be the biggest thing he could still accomplish in juniors.

 

[devilsblood]

Greene may be a road block but a Butcher Davies Smith left side, where you have 2 guys who have never played a pro game, one of whom is 19 years old, would never happen, regardless of the presence of Greene.

 

[OmNomNom]

Greene may be a road block but a Butcher Davies Smith left side, where you have 2 guys who have never played a pro game, one of whom is 19 years old, would never happen, regardless of the presence of Greene.

do i smell a trade