Confirmed Trade: [CHI/ARI] Nick Schmaltz for Brendan Perlini and Dylan Strome

[Dumpster Flyers]

Strome's production isn't sustainable. His on ice SH% with the Hawks is absurd.

 

[Intangir]

Strome's production isn't sustainable. His on ice SH% with the Hawks is absurd.

I agree that his production is unsustainable if you look at his own shooting percentage, or his team's PDO while he's on the ice, but look at his stats in Arizona and you'll notice that his percentages were extremely low there too and unsustainable in its own way.

In the end, the answer as to the end result of Strome's production probably lies in between those two extremes.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Strome's production isn't sustainable. His on ice SH% with the Hawks is absurd.

Lol

Posts like this make ZERO sense.

What about his assists? With the Hawks he has 30 assists in 47 games which equates to 52 assists over 82, so completely ignoring shooting percentage and let's just earmark him for 15 goals for 82 games in the future (which is laughably attainable for him), that still makes him a 67 pt player

So how exactly is this production unsustainable?

People need to just stop hoping he turns back into a bust and acknowledge he's actually a really damn good player that's finally being given a shot

 

[izzy]

Lol

Posts like this make ZERO sense.

What about his assists? With the Hawks he has 30 assists in 47 games which equates to 52 assists over 82, so completely ignoring shooting percentage and let's just earmark him for 15 goals for 82 games in the future (which is laughably attainable for him), that still makes him a 67 pt player

So how exactly is this production unsustainable?

People need to just stop hoping he turns back into a bust and acknowledge he's actually a really damn good player that's finally being given a shot

on ice shooting percentage is different from personal shooting percentage

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Lol

Posts like this make ZERO sense.

What about his assists? With the Hawks he has 30 assists in 47 games which equates to 52 assists over 82, so completely ignoring shooting percentage and let's just earmark him for 15 goals for 82 games in the future (which is laughably attainable for him), that still makes him a 67 pt player

So how exactly is this production unsustainable?

On ice shooting percentage. The percentage of shots that are goals while Strome is on the ice.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

on ice shooting percentage is different from personal shooting percentage

So the on ice shooting percentage is unsustainable because he's on a line with debrincat who is a top 5 sniper in the league right now?

Is the production of people who play on a line with stamkos, ovechkin, etc unsustainable too?

This is where stats are completely useless when you ignore context.

If strome had an unreal on ice shooting percentage centering a line of Marcus Kruger and Chris kunitz, fine. But saying he can't sustain production on a line of guys who can bury the puck just doesn't make sense. He's getting the puck to guys who have lethal shots and they're burying it. Anyone watching these games know the goals are far from lucky or flukey. The release and shots are overpowering goalies. These arent terrible goals that goalies are letting leak through

 

[LilySmoov]

So the on ice shooting percentage is unsustainable because he's on a line with debrincat who is a top 5 sniper in the league right now?

DeBrincat, who has an unsustainably high personal shooting percentage.*

 

[BK]

DeBrincat, who has an unsustainably high personal shooting percentage.*

19.5% is unsustainable BUT he shot 15.5% during his rookie season so I would argue that 14-18% is not an crazy assumption to make for following season plus his shot total will continue to increase a bit as he further matures.

Strome should be at least a 65+ point player most seasons as he will consistently get PP time with Kane and Debrincat plus he will play a big top 6 role going forward.

 

[CallMeShaft]

19.5% is unsustainable BUT he shot 15.5% during his rookie season so I would argue that 14-18% is not an crazy assumption to make for following season plus his shot total will continue to increase a bit as he further matures.

Strome should be at least a 65+ point player most seasons as he will consistently get PP time with Kane and Debrincat plus he will play a big top 6 role going forward.

That and him, Gallagher, and M. Tkachuk are the only 3 guys in the top 31 for goals who play less than 18mins a night. So even if DeBrincat's shooting percentage dips a little, he (and Strome) should play an extra minute or two per game in future seasons, which would help Strome's numbers a bit.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Is the production of people who play on a line with stamkos, ovechkin, etc unsustainable too?

Those guys trend toward mid-high 9's to mid-high 10's OISH%. That isn't unsustainable, tho it's the top 1% in the NHL.

Strome's 14% OISH% is, though.

He's getting the puck to guys who have lethal shots and they're burying it. Anyone watching these games know the goals are far from lucky or flukey. The release and shots are overpowering goalies. These arent terrible goals that goalies are letting leak through

I think it's more like the difference between a perfect snipe and wide left/blocker save, than it is just bad goals given up by a goalie.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

19.5% is unsustainable BUT he shot 15.5% during his rookie season so I would argue that 14-18% is not an crazy assumption to make for following season plus his shot total will continue to increase a bit as he further matures.

Strome should be at least a 65+ point player most seasons as he will consistently get PP time with Kane and Debrincat plus he will play a big top 6 role going forward.

I mean, it's debrincats sophomore season and he's about to hit 40 goals. He's 21 and not even close to entering his prime yet. He might very well turn into a 50 goal scorer one day given his release and how quickly he gets the puck off his stick in tight spaces and picks corners

The monster numbers he put up on the otters both with and without mcdavid, led the Hawks with 28 goals in his rookie season, and is about to follow it up with 40 goals, it probably a safer bet to think he's always going to be reliable for 35+ goals annually moving forward given his consistent ability to bury the puck at elite rates at nearly every level of hockey he's played

 

[BK]

I mean, it's debrincats sophomore season and he's about to hit 40 goals. He's 21 and not even close to entering his prime yet. He might very well turn into a 50 goal scorer one day given his release and how quickly he gets the puck off his stick in tight spaces and picks corners

The monster numbers he put up on the otters both with and without mcdavid, led the Hawks with 28 goals in his rookie season, and is about to follow it up with 40 goals, it probably a safer bet to think he's always going to be reliable for 35+ goals annually moving forward given his consistent ability to bury the puck at elite rates at nearly every level of hockey he's played

I don't get what you are trying to argue with me about.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

Jeez, people need to give this a rest already.

Strome didn't play with anybody as talented as Kane or Cat on the Yotes. His numbers were going to increase on that fact alone.

The Yotes had a Schmaltz who was thriving in their system before he was injured and looked like a different player then the one on the Hawks. He was more a driver and less a passenger to Kane.

I don't see how his isn't a win/win unless Perlinis run as of late isn't a fluke, but carry on debating whom "fleeced" who....

 

[Rolo]

Going forward I think:

Perlini - 20g/15a/35pts
Strome - 20g/50a/70pts

Schmaltz - 20g/55a/75pts (if Arizona surrounds him with talent.. otherwise 15g/45a)

 

[Maple Leaf]

one of the most perplexing trades of recent times

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Perlini isn't very good. He rides hot streaks to make his numbers look better and is otherwise a non-factor.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

I don't get what you are trying to argue with me about.

Sorry, i wasn't. I was agreeing with you. Debrincat is going to get better and still pot a crap ton of goals and stromes assists will mirror that as long as they stay together.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Going forward I think:

Perlini - 20g/15a/35pts
Strome - 20g/50a/70pts

Schmaltz - 20g/55a/75pts (if Arizona surrounds him with talent.. otherwise 15g/45a)

I don't think you've watched a full season of schmaltz being allergic to contact and the goal crease to think schmaltz hits almost PPG pace for an entire 82 game season otherwise you wouldn't be saying this

There's only so much perimeter playing you can do and still rack up points for long stretches of time

I hope the trade motivated him to be a more engaged player but that's certainly one of the main reasons chicago traded him

 

[izzy]

one of the most perplexing trades of recent times

why

 

[ClydeLee]

The hot streakiness and higher sh% and oish% are also legitimate criticisms of the results of Schmaltz play last year and his short time with zona. Those dont still negate his questions.

 

[Rolo]

I don't think you've watched a full season of schmaltz being allergic to contact and the goal crease to think schmaltz hits almost PPG pace for an entire 82 game season otherwise you wouldn't be saying this

There's only so much perimeter playing you can do and still rack up points for long stretches of time

I hope the trade motivated him to be a more engaged player but that's certainly one of the main reasons chicago traded him

He's going to be forced to be the main go-to guy in Arizona, which will result in that potential production.

 

[cobra427]

Lol

Posts like this make ZERO sense.

What about his assists? With the Hawks he has 30 assists in 47 games which equates to 52 assists over 82, so completely ignoring shooting percentage and let's just earmark him for 15 goals for 82 games in the future (which is laughably attainable for him), that still makes him a 67 pt player

So how exactly is this production unsustainable?

People need to just stop hoping he turns back into a bust and acknowledge he's actually a really damn good player that's finally being given a shot

His production is sustainable if he plays with Debrincat, and gets PP time with Kane. How many points does he have that don't involve Debrincat or Kane? Who else is he making better besides those 2 which obviously need his help?

 

[CallMeShaft]

His production is sustainable if he plays with Debrincat, and gets PP time with Kane. How many points does he have that don't involve Debrincat or Kane? Who else is he making better besides those 2 which obviously need his help?

Some dude named Perlini has had some recent success playing with Strome...

 

[Esq]

Perlini isn't very good. He rides hot streaks to make his numbers look better and is otherwise a non-factor.

True story, unfortunately. A virtual clone of Viktor Stalberg.

 

[LDF]

Perlini isn't very good. He rides hot streaks to make his numbers look better and is otherwise a non-factor.

actually i see him improving his value for some other teams. in other words, making him more attractive for a possible off-season trade.