Chevy...Please sign Wheeler to Extension before Camp!

[Halberdier]

Why would they let Connor or Ehlers go? Cap space can be trimmed elsewhere like Perreault or Kulikov

I'm afraid it's at least both of Perrealt AND Kulikov (or Myers or Trouba). And still that isn't maybe quite enough.

Laine
Connor
Roslovic
Niku
Vesalainen (if he makes it)

For example those guys will need contracts pretty soon.

 

[Raejuusto]

Put yourself in FLA or ANH position. Assuming Wheeler extends following a trade, which is another inherent risk for an acquiring team on it's own.

Rakell - coming of 69 pts in 77GP is 25 years old signed for 3.8M for another 5 years. He is signed throughout his prime at likely what will be roughly half of what Wheeler get from 33 years old onwards .

Trochek - coming off 75 pt in 82 gp, is 25 years old, plays a more valuable position for FLA and is signed for 4.75M for 4 years throughout his prime years. Again, likely 3ishM less than what Wheeler makes from 33 years old onwards

Is Wheeler, from 33 years old onwards worth the extra 3-4M over these guys? It's tough to say. Add in the fact he will likely be declining and while those guys are in their prime years.

Would love to get one of these guys in a deal for Wheeler, but I dont think the acquiring teams would consider it from their POV.

Yes both Trocheks and Rakells trade value is higher than Wheelers, hence we would need to add a pick or two to balance it out. I choose Rakell because Anaheim is on Getzlafs and Perrys final legs (1st line wise), so if they want to compete they need to make the moves now. Before they start rebuilding . Also our first rounders are not priorities now, they are late picks and we have a core setup pretty much so we can afford using them to "force" their hand for a trade. But ultimately yes these are hard trades to make but I believe Anaheim might take Wheeler, 1st '19, 2nd '20 for Rakell.

 

[DRW204]

I'm afraid it's at least both of Perrealt AND Kulikov (or Myers or Trouba). And still that isn't maybe quite enough.

Laine
Connor
Roslovic
Niku
Vesalainen (if he makes it)

For example those guys will need contracts pretty soon.

Some of these are years away. Chevy will certainly have to get creative but there will be increases in the cap + bridges will likely have to be used. Who knows what Roslovic/Niku/KV do in the NHL and what sort of contract follows? To early to project anything for them IMO, but I am sure the Jets brass has different scenarios and projections modeled out.

Yes both Trocheks and Rakells trade value is higher than Wheelers, hence we would need to add a pick or two to balance it out. I choose Rakell because Anaheim is on Getzlafs and Perrys final legs (1st line wise), so if they want to compete they need to make the moves now. Before they start rebuilding . Also our first rounders are not priorities now, they are late picks and we have a core setup pretty much so we can afford using them to "force" their hand for a trade. But ultimately yes these are hard trades to make but I believe Anaheim might take Wheeler, 1st '19, 2nd '20 for Rakell.

Could be wrong, but I don't see ANH doing it. Post it in the trade forum perhaps.

 

[Guffman]

This is such a hard decision that the Jets will have next offseason. I wouldn’t focus just on Wheeler’s stats. He’s the captain and driver of the team.

Hopefully Chevy can figure this one out.

 

[Jets4Life]

And are you sure you want to appeal to the authority of the PHWA? Saying Wheeler deserves a $7M+/AAV deal starting in 2019-20 because John Shannon thinks he had a great year is a pretty shaky foundation for your proposition.

Players are not nominated for leadership awards, unless they are extremely valuable to their respective clubs. Players are not nominated for the Hart Trophy unless their are one of the top players in the NHL for that respective season.

Also, as mentioned above, scoring rates aren't really fancy stats.

No, they are not. What should be important is Wheeler's point totals for the past season, and also for the last three seasons. If I am not mistaken, only four NHL players have put up more points than Wheeler. Those are the years that your charts suggest he is receding drastically. What is wrong with that picture? Wheeler was the captain and leader of a team who finished second overall, and made it to the Conference Finals. He also led the playoffs in Assists/game.

P/60 just helps to compare apples to apples. P1/60 looks at goals and primary assists because the player has more direct impact than on 2nd assists (some are pretty, heck, some guys deserve 3rd assists for some plays, but a lot of them are not really factors in the eventual goal).

Here's Wheeler's 5v5 P/60 and all-situations P/60. You can see the boost he's getting from powerplay goals - it's most of the gap between the lines.
View attachment 136777

That essentially reinforces the argument that we need to sign Wheeler. If he is that effective on the PP and PK, than he cannot be replaced. You do realize that a 60 minute game is played with numerous power plays. By only showing the 5 vs 5 stats, you are leaving out one of Wheeler's main strengths.

Wheeler's average P/60 PP boost since coming to Winnipeg was 0.45 P/60 for the first 5 years. The last 2 years (coinciding with the arrival of a certain Finn) it's been 1.04. Overall it's 0.62. You can't see last year's data point for "All p/60" because it's literally off the chart, but it was 3.33 - a boost of 1.25 p/60. So is Wheeler really a PP impresario, coming into his own at the ripe old age of 30? Or is he being boosted by the quality of his PP linemates? I'm not saying PP production is worthless, but how much more or less would we be getting out of a different skilled playmaker on the half wall? Is it worth losing one of the Jets' young stars? Should we be rushing to throw ourselves into that frying pan right now?

There's nothing really fancy about this stuff. Wheeler's getting a huge powerplay boost from playing with Laine and Scheifele, while his overall p/60 is flat (maybe slowly declining - it's a bit off his age 24-29 prime and peak at age 29), and his p1/60 is in decline, all while he's heading into his mid-30s.

Time is on the Jets' side here - just wait and see what Wheeler does this year. If they'd done that with Little last offseason, the Jets might be in better shape cap-wise right now.

And as for the fact that the same people who wrong about Burmistrov may be now telling you to pump the brakes on Wheeler, you seem to be forgetting the times when those people were telling you that Pavelec, Stuart and Thorburn (and Stafford, and Strait) were terrible and that Morrissey and Niku and Perreault were good. I could be wrong about Wheeler - maybe Scheifele will get him some quinoa and healing crystals and he'll put up 90 points until he's 45 years old...but I don't think I'd put money on that side of the bet.

Agree to disagree I guess....

 

[Jets4Life]

Key IMO, is to actually turn the pieces you can't keep into younger assets that end up keeping the cycle going. I don't think any of the pieces that the Hawks got back for those guys turned into anything. If they would have, I think the Hawks would have had a few more runs.

The Jets were modeled on what the Blackhawks did in the late 2000s-early 2010s. That is essentially why we snatched Chevy away from the Blackhawks organization. Just like the Jets of today, the Blackhawks of 2010 had enough depth to overcome the loss of Ladd (24), Byfuglien (25), and Versteeg (24). I still believe the key to a successful team is finding the right balance of veterans and young players, if the depth of a team allows this. Chicago could have parted with some of their older players - Hossa (31) and Sharp (29), but kept them on the club for potential future runs (2013-15).

 

[Jets4Life]

To me, if you're not willing to dig in to why and how a player performed the way they did, then how can you confidently say who should and should not be signed? If you're just basing your opinions on point totals and Hart voting then I don't see the purpose of this discussion at all.

You are entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine. I can ask you the same question about why you are opposed to signing Wheeler, but we would just be going in circles. All I can say is it is a very polarizing issue with Jets fans. In the past, I find it best to post the question on the main forum for other teams fans to see, when fans become too polarized, when it comes to the Jets.

I put it out to the main forum yesterday. Here is what non-Jets fans had to say:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/blake-wheeler-ufa-in-2019.2533901/page-3#post-149129667

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/blake-wheeler.2530587/

 

[Adam da bomb]

Players are not nominated for leadership awards, unless they are extremely valuable to their respective clubs. Players are not nominated for the Hart Trophy unless their are one of the top players in the NHL for that respective season.



No, they are not. What should be important is Wheeler's point totals for the past season, and also for the last three seasons. If I am not mistaken, only four NHL players have put up more points than Wheeler. Those are the years that your charts suggest he is receding drastically. What is wrong with that picture? Wheeler was the captain and leader of a team who finished second overall, and made it to the Conference Finals. He also led the playoffs in Assists/game.



That essentially reinforces the argument that we need to sign Wheeler. If he is that effective on the PP and PK, than he cannot be replaced. You do realize that a 60 minute game is played with numerous power plays. By only showing the 5 vs 5 stats, you are leaving out one of Wheeler's main strengths.




Agree to disagree I guess....

Your playoff point however, is because he played with Shief. Anyone who plays with Shief gets lots of assists. You don't need to overpay to do that. Pk he was only the 3rd pairing after lowry, Copp, Armia and Hendricks. I would rather Connor at 6 than Wheeler at 7 or 8. Roslo on the pp with Shief and Laine could put up huge numbers. Shief can be the captain and team driver I don't want to lose an Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Roslo for Wheeler.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It's like how people think Buff is the best D on the team but I'd rather Mo or Trouba. Wheeler may be the best this year, he may be the best 2 years from now. But, 3, 4,5 years from now the young guys will catch up and move ahead.

 

[Gm0ney]

Players are not nominated for leadership awards, unless they are extremely valuable to their respective clubs. Players are not nominated for the Hart Trophy unless their are one of the top players in the NHL for that respective season.



No, they are not. What should be important is Wheeler's point totals for the past season, and also for the last three seasons. If I am not mistaken, only four NHL players have put up more points than Wheeler. Those are the years that your charts suggest he is receding drastically. What is wrong with that picture? Wheeler was the captain and leader of a team who finished second overall, and made it to the Conference Finals. He also led the playoffs in Assists/game.



That essentially reinforces the argument that we need to sign Wheeler. If he is that effective on the PP and PK, than he cannot be replaced. You do realize that a 60 minute game is played with numerous power plays. By only showing the 5 vs 5 stats, you are leaving out one of Wheeler's main strengths.




Agree to disagree I guess....

If you don't think the Little signing is relevant to the Wheeler situation, then...? How about the Ladd situation? Heart-and-soul captain of the team heading into the last year of his deal, coming off a playoff appearance and the best year of his career. Sound familiar? Know what happened next? Bad things for the team that ended up signing him, that's what! We'd still be rue-ing the day if the Jets had locked him up in the fall of 2015.

What Wheeler's done over the past 3 years has to be tempered by his age. No one is immune to the effects of time. He's a great winger, but he's peaked. It's all downhill from here. Whether it's a gentle coast down a rolling hillside or a tragic plunge over the edge of a cliff is the only question. The safest course for the Jets is to hold off on signing any deals until they see how this season is going for him. He's not going to get more expensive than he is right now, coming off a career year.

As far as replacing Wheeler goes, even Wheeler won't be able to replace his own peak production as he ages. I don't think the Jets should jump the gun to pay a premium for him now.

 

[Jets4Life]

How about the Ladd situation? Heart-and-soul captain of the team heading into the last year of his deal, coming off a playoff appearance and the best year of his career.

I always thought not only was Wheeler a better player than Ladd, but he has made a much better leader. No disrespect to Ladd....

What Wheeler's done over the past 3 years has to be tempered by his age. No one is immune to the effects of time. He's a great winger, but he's peaked. It's all downhill from here. Whether it's a gentle coast down a rolling hillside or a tragic plunge over the edge of a cliff is the only question. The safest course for the Jets is to hold off on signing any deals until they see how this season is going for him. He's not going to get more expensive than he is right now, coming off a career year.

Wheeler may be better in 2018-19 for all we know. You believe he has peaked, does not necessarily make it the truth.

As far as replacing Wheeler goes, even Wheeler won't be able to replace his own peak production as he ages. I don't think the Jets should jump the gun to pay a premium for him now.

It obviously depends how much money he is asking for...having said that, ask Murat for his take:

 

[Adam da bomb]

You are entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine. I can ask you the same question about why you are opposed to signing Wheeler, but we would just be going in circles. All I can say is it is a very polarizing issue with Jets fans. In the past, I find it best to post the question on the main forum for other teams fans to see, when fans become too polarized, when it comes to the Jets.

I put it out to the main forum yesterday. Here is what non-Jets fans had to say:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/blake-wheeler.2530587/

Amazing. Seems like the general person agrees with the take that they wouldn't offer a lot for him due to his age and the young players we have to sign. We were not getting great offers on there.

 

[Duke749]

If you don't think the Little signing is relevant to the Wheeler situation, then...? How about the Ladd situation? Heart-and-soul captain of the team heading into the last year of his deal, coming off a playoff appearance and the best year of his career. Sound familiar? Know what happened next? Bad things for the team that ended up signing him, that's what! We'd still be rue-ing the day if the Jets had locked him up in the fall of 2015.

What Wheeler's done over the past 3 years has to be tempered by his age. No one is immune to the effects of time. He's a great winger, but he's peaked. It's all downhill from here. Whether it's a gentle coast down a rolling hillside or a tragic plunge over the edge of a cliff is the only question. The safest course for the Jets is to hold off on signing any deals until they see how this season is going for him. He's not going to get more expensive than he is right now, coming off a career year.

As far as replacing Wheeler goes, even Wheeler won't be able to replace his own peak production as he ages. I don't think the Jets should jump the gun to pay a premium for him now.

People keep bringing up Ladd, but the guy was coming off hernia surgery. Who has actually rebounded from that? Wheeler is just aging which, we don’t know when he’ll start to drop off. It’s not comparable to Ladd at all.

 

[The Big M]

It's like how people think Buff is the best D on the team but I'd rather Mo or Trouba. Wheeler may be the best this year, he may be the best 2 years from now. But, 3, 4,5 years from now the young guys will catch up and move ahead.

Okay...I'll take 2 years of prime Wheeler and then a couple of years just "very good" Wheeler.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Okay...I'll take 2 years of prime Wheeler and then a couple of years just "very good" Wheeler.

I'll take Connor if given the choice and an extra mil or two to spend elsewhere.

 

[KingBogo]

If you don't think the Little signing is relevant to the Wheeler situation, then...? How about the Ladd situation? Heart-and-soul captain of the team heading into the last year of his deal, coming off a playoff appearance and the best year of his career. Sound familiar? Know what happened next? Bad things for the team that ended up signing him, that's what! We'd still be rue-ing the day if the Jets had locked him up in the fall of 2015.

What Wheeler's done over the past 3 years has to be tempered by his age. No one is immune to the effects of time. He's a great winger, but he's peaked. It's all downhill from here. Whether it's a gentle coast down a rolling hillside or a tragic plunge over the edge of a cliff is the only question. The safest course for the Jets is to hold off on signing any deals until they see how this season is going for him. He's not going to get more expensive than he is right now, coming off a career year.

As far as replacing Wheeler goes, even Wheeler won't be able to replace his own peak production as he ages. I don't think the Jets should jump the gun to pay a premium for him now.

Fully agree with the bolded but also go the additional step and argue they shouldn't considering re-signing Wheeler until they have dealt with everyone one of their young core that is due a contract this season or next (Morrissey, Trouba, Laine, Connor). Chevy has successfully dealt with Sceifele, Ehlers, Lowry and Helly but he needs resolution with the other four before considering extending Wheeler. Morrissey will be done before camp, but his term will be important a bridge puts the Jets in a position of needing to afford a greater salary in 2 years. Trouba may agree to stay, but it won't be a cheap contract and if he gets traded a fair deal may require some salary coming back. Laine will be very expensive. A 50+ goal season will push him past $10 M AAV and if he isn't signed before July 1, 2019 the possibility of an offer sheet comes into play. Though unlikely Chevy will need the flexibility and cap room to match any offers. And Connor will also be very expensive if he can build off a 30 goal rookie season. Chevy has spent 7 years drafting and developing a young core that is the envy of the league. He can't let any of them slip away. Once the young core is all locked up, then you try to lock up Wheeler with available cap room with expiring contracts and depth players that can be replaced internally at a lesser salary.

 

[Jets4Life]

People keep bringing up Ladd, but the guy was coming off hernia surgery. Who has actually rebounded from that? Wheeler is just aging which, we don’t know when he’ll start to drop off. It’s not comparable to Ladd at all.

Uh oh.....are hernias really that bad?

Asking for a friend...

 

[Duke749]

Uh oh.....are hernias really that bad?

Asking for a friend...

Uhhhh , assuming you’re serious(lol) only if you’re a high level athlete. Otherwise I believe most people recover just fine.

 

[AWSAA]

Trade him at the deadline and go on to win the Cup. It worked for Boston.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Trade him at the deadline and go on to win the Cup. It worked for Boston.

That would teach him to not take a team friendly short term deal!

Alas, we can only dream of such karma.

 

[Gm0ney]

People keep bringing up Ladd, but the guy was coming off hernia surgery. Who has actually rebounded from that? Wheeler is just aging which, we don’t know when he’ll start to drop off. It’s not comparable to Ladd at all.

Ladd's kind of a worst case scenario and I agree that his decline was probably mostly related to that hernia injury. I'm not expecting Wheeler to immediately turn into a turd as soon as he signs, but I do expect him to become less effective as time passes...because that's just reality (and by some measures, he's already showing signs of becoming less effective). The team needs to be careful here - and signing him right now coming off his best season (inflated by crazy PP numbers) would be reckless.

 

[Gm0ney]

I always thought not only was Wheeler a better player than Ladd, but he has made a much better leader. No disrespect to Ladd....


Wheeler may be better in 2018-19 for all we know. You believe he has peaked, does not necessarily make it the truth.



It obviously depends how much money he is asking for...having said that, ask Murat for his take:

The way Ladd and Little have performed without Wheeler, I'm wondering just how much of the heavy lifting he was doing all those years...

I don't think it's likely that Wheeler will get better with age. It's not impossible. If he puts up 100 points this season, the Jets won't be able to afford him...but I don't really think they can afford him right now anyway. Unless he's willing to accept some wildly team-friendly low cap/long term deal right now, the Jets should wait and see.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Ladd's kind of a worst case scenario and I agree that his decline was probably mostly related to that hernia injury. I'm not expecting Wheeler to immediately turn into a turd as soon as he signs, but I do expect him to become less effective as time passes...because that's just reality (and by some measures, he's already showing signs of becoming less effective). The team needs to be careful here - and signing him right now coming off his best season (inflated by crazy PP numbers) would be reckless.

.....he's already showing signs of being less effective by....having a career year?

 

[surixon]

.....he's already showing signs of being less effective by....having a career year?

It was boosted by abnormal pp production. His 5 on 5 production has declined for a couple of years now. He also isn't as good a possession player as he once was. Point totals aren't the only thing that explains a players effectiveness.

 

[Jets4Life]

The way Ladd and Little have performed without Wheeler, I'm wondering just how much of the heavy lifting he was doing all those years...

I don't think it's likely that Wheeler will get better with age. It's not impossible. If he puts up 100 points this season, the Jets won't be able to afford him...but I don't really think they can afford him right now anyway. Unless he's willing to accept some wildly team-friendly low cap/long term deal right now, the Jets should wait and see.

I don't think he will get better in the future, but I do not expect him to recede the way Ladd has.

Having said that I have an announcement for this forum. I just landed a job that I have been trying to get for two years. I am so happy, and want to thank you all for sharing your love for the Jets with me. If someone has not reminded you today, you are all great people, and you are all capable of doing great and amazing things.

Even though I can come across as a prick at times, I hope the best for all of you. Today was such a great day for me. Everyone have a great week!