Chevy...Please sign Wheeler to Extension before Camp!

[DRW204]

If he gets evander Kane/jvr type money (7m AAV) that'll be an extraordinary coup

 

[Jets4Life]

This is an interesting point. You throw in what some have suggested that they would be willing to lose Ehlers to sign Wheeler. Now how many of us would be advocating that the Jets sign a 33 y/o UFA long term from another organization at the cost of losing a valuable piece of our young core?

Ehlers was hypothetical situation, I am not sure how it morphed to become gospel. The fact is the Jets, if they make another deep run, are going to have to make some sacrifices, and that will almost certainly include giving up one of our potential top 6 forwards, perhaps two of them. You just have to look at the Chicago Blackhawks in 2010, who gave up Ladd, Byfuglien, and Versteeg to remain below the salary cap.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers was hypothetical situation, I am not sure how it morphed to become gospel. The fact is the Jets, if they make another deep run, are going to have to make some sacrifices, and that will almost certainly include giving up one of our potential top 6 forwards, perhaps two of them. You just have to look at the Chicago Blackhawks in 2010, who gave up Ladd, Byfuglien, and Versteeg to remain below the salary cap.

And that potential top 6 player I'd give up is Wheeler. I mean Ehlers is much cheaper and we don't lose too much. Connor if he signs 6 mil is much cheaper is much cheaper than Wheeler at 7 or 8

 

[Raejuusto]

First time poster here chiming in. Personally I believe Wheeler unfortunately has become a luxury Jets will have trouble to afford even a couple of years forward without losing one of the younger core players. Jets have almost too many high talent wingers already currently. Wheeler will be asking jets for at least 7,5m x 4, where as there are teams willing to pay up to 8,5m x 5. To keep the Jets as contenders for as long as possible Chevy should strive to target players such as Barkov, who plays a position the jets should strengthen and is on a very lucrative 5,9m aav contract. Let's say Wheeler, Trouba, 1st '19, 2nd '20 for Barkov & Matheson. Another option would be Couts from philly for a lesser package. This would keep the jets "win now" window open for a solid 5-6 years forward (counting on the Poolman, Stanley, Niku developing as planned).

Just my two cents

 

[Gm0ney]

Wheeler's elite production last year came almost entirely from the powerplay. He's a great passer, and had tremendous success feeding the puck to Laine and Scheifele, but he's not the superweapon on that unit.

His 5v5 Primary Points/60 (1.42) was 7th on the Jets (6th if you exclude Stastny), 105th in the NHL (among players >500 minutes). Here's his career in Primary Points/60:

His last two years have been his worst. And he's playing with the most skilled linemates of his career. He turns 32 in a couple of days. Is this where the team wants to sink $6M or $7M for the next 4 years? Probably not.

 

[surixon]

Wheeler's elite production last year came almost entirely from the powerplay. He's a great passer, and had tremendous success feeding the puck to Laine and Scheifele, but he's not the superweapon on that unit.

His 5v5 Primary Points/60 (1.42) was 7th on the Jets (6th if you exclude Stastny), 105th in the NHL (among players >500 minutes). Here's his career in Primary Points/60:

View attachment 136767

His last two years have been his worst. And he's playing with the most skilled linemates of his career. He turns 32 in a couple of days. Is this where the team wants to sink $6M or $7M for the next 4 years? Probably not.

Exactly, he isn't the offensive driver at ES anymore, that mantle has been passed to Scheifele. At ES he is the benefactor of all that elite talent around him that is propping up his overall point totals.

People don't seem to be aware that he already has declined as a player in terms of his ability to generate chances and drive play.

All of the kids have superior production rates at ES over the last two seasons. All are also still trending up whereas Wheeler is trending down and to be expected of a player his age.

I love Wheeler but he goes before any of our kids imo.

 

[Jets4Life]

Wheeler's elite production last year came almost entirely from the powerplay. He's a great passer, and had tremendous success feeding the puck to Laine and Scheifele, but he's not the superweapon on that unit.

His 5v5 Primary Points/60 (1.42) was 7th on the Jets (6th if you exclude Stastny), 105th in the NHL (among players >500 minutes). Here's his career in Primary Points/60:

View attachment 136767

His last two years have been his worst. And he's playing with the most skilled linemates of his career. He turns 32 in a couple of days. Is this where the team wants to sink $6M or $7M for the next 4 years? Probably not.

Wheeler was so horrible he finished 8th overall in Hart Trophy voting. The same people who are using these fancy stats to discredit Wheeler's contribution to the Jets, are the same people that were convincing us that Burmistrov was a stud, who would eventually become an elite player.

 

[Jack722]

"these fancy stats" do you really not understand 5 on 5 scoring rates?

And no one's calling him horrible or trying to discredit him. But his overall scoring is hugely inflated by power play. Isn't it?

 

[robertocarlos]

Hey, I only chose Ehlers because it rhymes with Wheelers. But to sign Wheeler you have to lose a well paid player. Nothing rhymes with Connor.

 

[1stDan]

Exactly, he isn't the offensive driver at ES anymore, that mantle has been passed to Scheifele. At ES he is the benefactor of all that elite talent around him that is propping up his overall point totals.

People don't seem to be aware that he already has declined as a player in terms of his ability to generate chances and drive play.

All of the kids have superior production rates at ES over the last two seasons. All are also still trending up whereas Wheeler is trending down and to be expected of a player his age.

I love Wheeler but he goes before any of our kids imo.

His PK contributions cannot be overlooked.

 

[Jets4Life]

"these fancy stats" do you really not understand 5 on 5 scoring rates?

Do you not understand that Wheeler had his best season in 2017-18, and was nominated for the Hart Trophy, which essentially means he was the most valuable player to his team?

And no one's calling him horrible or trying to discredit him.

That is exactly what the chart the poster put up suggests. It is trying to discredit Wheeler, suggesting he peaked in 2015, which is rubbish. This just means that the chart the poster put up is irrelevant to Wheeler's value to the Jets.

 

[Raejuusto]

Do you not understand that Wheeler had his best season in 2017-18, and was nominated for the Hart Trophy, which essentially means he was the most valuable player to his team?

How long forward do you see Wheels keeping up +90 point seasons? +80 point seasons? Yes he came of a career season point wise but father time will slow him down, thus sell when the value is high.

 

[DRW204]

How long forward do you see Wheels keeping up +90 point seasons? +80 point seasons? Yes he came of a career season point wise but father time will slow him down, thus sell when the value is high.

and what do you think we would net in a trade for Wheeler? Guys like Barkov and Couturier like you suggested in post #154 are probably considered "untouchables" on those teams. Those are near-PPG Selke calibre Cs that are 6 and 9 years younger, and are on contracts with value akin to Scheifele's. If Wheeler regress by 20 points, he is still a 70 point player. 70 pt player @ 7-8M is still good value considering what guys like JVR, Kane, and Marleau have gotten.

 

[surixon]

Do you not understand that Wheeler had his best season in 2017-18, and was nominated for the Hart Trophy, which essentially means he was the most valuable player to his team?



That is exactly what the chart the poster put up suggests. It is trying to discredit Wheeler, suggesting he peaked in 2015, which is rubbish. This just means that the chart the poster put up is irrelevant to Wheeler's value to the Jets.

He had has best year on the PP this past season but he has performed much better at ES in the past. For my money 2015-2016 was his best season for us. He drove his line at ES and produced primary points at an elite level. He also had his second best point totals of his career that year.

He produced on the PP at a top 3 rate in the league last season which doesn't align with anything he's done there at any other point in his career.

 

[Jack722]

To me, if you're not willing to dig in to why and how a player performed the way they did, then how can you confidently say who should and should not be signed? If you're just basing your opinions on point totals and Hart voting then I don't see the purpose of this discussion at all.

Do you not understand that Wheeler had his best season in 2017-18, and was nominated for the Hart Trophy, which essentially means he was the most valuable player to his team?



That is exactly what the chart the poster put up suggests. It is trying to discredit Wheeler, suggesting he peaked in 2015, which is rubbish. This just means that the chart the poster put up is irrelevant to Wheeler's value to the Jets.

 

[Oilpeg]

What difference does it make if Wheeler isn't driving the play at ES and is benefiting from Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor, and Laine? He's going to be playing with at least one of those guys anyway. And why should PP production be discredited? Is the power play no longer important? Take Wheeler away from the PP and it's not nearly as effective, no? I get being cautious about an older player, but Wheeler is evolving, not declining in my opinion.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Where did you get the $9,000,000 figure from?

In your post # 127, you suggested that teams would tripping over themselves to sign him on a 8m X 4 contract. So how far would any team go for Wheeler.
This kinda reminds of any discussion we have about Sens Stone. He good but really only have great season...last year. It's going to be interesting what teams will pay him. His norm or excellent last season. Same with Wheeler.

 

[Raejuusto]

and what do you think we would net in a trade for Wheeler? Guys like Barkov and Couturier like you suggested in post #154 are probably considered "untouchables" on those teams. Those are near-PPG Selke calibre Cs that are 6 and 9 years younger, and are on contracts with value akin to Scheifele's. If Wheeler regress by 20 points, he is still a 70 point player. 70 pt player @ 7-8M is still good value considering what guys like JVR, Kane, and Marleau have gotten.

Sure a player of Barkovs or Couts caliber would require alot. But ok, we can look at lesser pieces and still end up better longterm. How about Trochek or Rickard Rackell, +70 point scorers for years to come at a lesser cap hit on long nice contracts filling in our need of a good young proven 2c. With all our young core players turning into stars pretty much at the same time we are going to need every extra dollar come resigning time. Yes Wheeler may (or may not) hold more value next season or even the one after that, but eventually sooner or later the tide turns. Wheeler is fantastic but it would be wise to consider the options out there.

 

[Gm0ney]

Hey, I only chose Ehlers because it rhymes with Wheelers. But to sign Wheeler you have to lose a well paid player. Nothing rhymes with Connor.

"Goner"?

 

[Huffer]

Ehlers was hypothetical situation, I am not sure how it morphed to become gospel. The fact is the Jets, if they make another deep run, are going to have to make some sacrifices, and that will almost certainly include giving up one of our potential top 6 forwards, perhaps two of them. You just have to look at the Chicago Blackhawks in 2010, who gave up Ladd, Byfuglien, and Versteeg to remain below the salary cap.

Key IMO, is to actually turn the pieces you can't keep into younger assets that end up keeping the cycle going. I don't think any of the pieces that the Hawks got back for those guys turned into anything. If they would have, I think the Hawks would have had a few more runs.

Which is why I'm torn on guys like Wheeler and Myers. I'd love to keep Wheeler, he's a heart and soul leader. I also don't like the idea of these types of quality assets walking out the door with nothing to show for it. The returns on these guys should (hopefully), end up being the young guys we need on ELC's to support Schief, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, JoMo, Trouba (hopefully), Helle, etc, as those guys will all be making big $.

 

[Gm0ney]

That is exactly what the chart the poster put up suggests. It is trying to discredit Wheeler, suggesting he peaked in 2015, which is rubbish. This just means that the chart the poster put up is irrelevant to Wheeler's value to the Jets.

No, I'm saying that the Jets should pump the brakes on signing Wheeler to a big money/term deal - especially right now. Did you miss the Bryan Little signing last offseason?

And are you sure you want to appeal to the authority of the PHWA? Saying Wheeler deserves a $7M+/AAV deal starting in 2019-20 because John Shannon thinks he had a great year is a pretty shaky foundation for your proposition.

Also, as mentioned above, scoring rates aren't really fancy stats. P/60 just helps to compare apples to apples. P1/60 looks at goals and primary assists because the player has more direct impact than on 2nd assists (some are pretty, heck, some guys deserve 3rd assists for some plays, but a lot of them are not really factors in the eventual goal).

Here's Wheeler's 5v5 P/60 and all-situations P/60. You can see the boost he's getting from powerplay goals - it's most of the gap between the lines.

Wheeler's average P/60 PP boost since coming to Winnipeg was 0.45 P/60 for the first 5 years. The last 2 years (coinciding with the arrival of a certain Finn) it's been 1.04. Overall it's 0.62. You can't see last year's data point for "All p/60" because it's literally off the chart, but it was 3.33 - a boost of 1.25 p/60. So is Wheeler really a PP impresario, coming into his own at the ripe old age of 30? Or is he being boosted by the quality of his PP linemates? I'm not saying PP production is worthless, but how much more or less would we be getting out of a different skilled playmaker on the half wall? Is it worth losing one of the Jets' young stars? Should we be rushing to throw ourselves into that frying pan right now?

There's nothing really fancy about this stuff. Wheeler's getting a huge powerplay boost from playing with Laine and Scheifele, while his overall p/60 is flat (maybe slowly declining - it's a bit off his age 24-29 prime and peak at age 29), and his p1/60 is in decline, all while he's heading into his mid-30s.

Time is on the Jets' side here - just wait and see what Wheeler does this year. If they'd done that with Little last offseason, the Jets might be in better shape cap-wise right now.

And as for the fact that the same people who wrong about Burmistrov may be now telling you to pump the brakes on Wheeler, you seem to be forgetting the times when those people were telling you that Pavelec, Stuart and Thorburn (and Stafford, and Strait) were terrible and that Morrissey and Niku and Perreault were good. I could be wrong about Wheeler - maybe Scheifele will get him some quinoa and healing crystals and he'll put up 90 points until he's 45 years old...but I don't think I'd put money on that side of the bet.

 

[Halberdier]

What difference does it make if Wheeler isn't driving the play at ES and is benefiting from Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor, and Laine? He's going to be playing with at least one of those guys anyway. And why should PP production be discredited? Is the power play no longer important? Take Wheeler away from the PP and it's not nearly as effective, no? I get being cautious about an older player, but Wheeler is evolving, not declining in my opinion.

PP1 is actually pet peeve of mine. It has to be better next season. PP2 is otherwise better, but Laine and Scheifele are just next level shooters vs. all those PP2 ones. And Wheeler himself was also effective with his sneaky little snipes.

Jets PP1 has the potential to be the best PP on whole league, but they just have to start moving that puck. Concept is not exactly hard. I know that Wheeler happens to have wrong handedness to be optimal for his role, as if he had his stick left, he could fire one-timers as well and Laine & Scheifele would be able to feed him when the opponent is faking too much on them.

In 3-5 years, who knows if Vesalainen, who is kind of lesser version of Wheeler could be just that optimal guy for the job. At least he has the correct handedness and pretty good slap shot.

But as next season Wheeler will be that playmaker on PP1, they just need to start moving that puck. There are couple of examples visible on those highlight videos about how effective it is when the puck is moved around quickly like from Laine to Buff, Buff to Wheeler and as because of those quick passes the lane to Laine is open, Wheeler makes a perfect pass to Laine who puts it into the net.

The principle of quick puck movement is really easy. Somehow it has been pretty non-existent on typical Jets PP1 play, so it's just Wheeler keeping the puck and occasionally passing it to Buff just to get it back quickly. In those cases it's pretty easy to keep the lane lane for Laine, and also it's harder to pass Scheif too.

 

[DRW204]

Sure a player of Barkovs or Couts caliber would require alot. But ok, we can look at lesser pieces and still end up better longterm. How about Trochek or Rickard Rackell, +70 point scorers for years to come at a lesser cap hit on long nice contracts filling in our need of a good young proven 2c. With all our young core players turning into stars pretty much at the same time we are going to need every extra dollar come resigning time. Yes Wheeler may (or may not) hold more value next season or even the one after that, but eventually sooner or later the tide turns. Wheeler is fantastic but it would be wise to consider the options out there.

Put yourself in FLA or ANH position. Assuming Wheeler extends following a trade, which is another inherent risk for an acquiring team on it's own.

Rakell - coming of 69 pts in 77GP is 25 years old signed for 3.8M for another 5 years. He is signed throughout his prime at likely what will be roughly half of what Wheeler get from 33 years old onwards .

Trochek - coming off 75 pt in 82 gp, is 25 years old, plays a more valuable position for FLA and is signed for 4.75M for 4 years throughout his prime years. Again, likely 3ishM less than what Wheeler makes from 33 years old onwards

Is Wheeler, from 33 years old onwards worth the extra 3-4M over these guys? It's tough to say. Add in the fact he will likely be declining and while those guys are in their prime years.

Would love to get one of these guys in a deal for Wheeler, but I dont think the acquiring teams would consider it from their POV.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Put yourself in FLA or ANH position. Assuming Wheeler extends following a trade, which is another inherent risk for an acquiring team on it's own.

Rakell - coming of 69 pts in 77GP is 25 years old signed for 3.8M for another 5 years. He is signed throughout his prime at likely what will be roughly half of what Wheeler get from 33 years old onwards .

Trochek - coming off 75 pt in 82 gp, is 25 years old, plays a more valuable position for FLA and is signed for 4.75M for 4 years throughout his prime years. Again, likely 3ishM less than what Wheeler makes from 33 years old onwards

Is Wheeler, from 33 years old onwards worth the extra 3-4M over these guys? It's tough to say. Add in the fact he will likely be declining and while those guys are in their prime years.

Would love to get one of these guys in a deal for Wheeler, but I dont think the acquiring teams would consider it from their POV.

Yet. Its the exact same smartness the Jets would be doing if they let a Connor or Ehlers go in order to resign Wheeler.

 

[DRW204]

Yet. Its the exact same smartness the Jets would be doing if they let a Connor or Ehlers go in order to resign Wheeler.

Why would they let Connor or Ehlers go? Cap space can be trimmed elsewhere like Perreault or Kulikov