Cheer for the Islander tank or not?

[Gabrielor]

If they're 6th or better, they'll likely keep it, given the projected talent available there. Ambiguity after that.

I'd prefer they're 6th or better.

 

[Gabrielor]

Internal pressure also a possible factor. It's been proven that they think they can win now, maybe they opt to keep the selection and make it, and trade it for defense/goaltender.

 

[Paxon]

The Devils deferred because they expected to be good the following year. They were wrong.

If the Isles defer, it's because they expect to be good the following year.

The only way you can relate these two very different situations is by reducing them to overly an overly simplistic state. In each case there's much more to it than you're presenting.

The Devils obviously knew there was zero chance they'd be giving up a worse pick than the one they did, yet they deferred anyways. Why? Who knows, because it was idiotic.

If they finish, say, 5th, your reasoning as it relates to the Devils holds no water. If the Islanders defer, it doesn't mean they think they'll be as bad or worse next year. It has everything to do with McDavid. Your reasoning only holds weight if the risk runs one way: finishing 5th or better next year, in a draft you'd prefer to finish 5th or better in. There's obviously a counter risk, which is finishing 10th or 14th or 19th and or 22nd.

When the Devils chose not to defer, everyone knew it was the wrong decision, because the odds of them going to the Finals again were slim. The worst case scenario was that they draft 30th or 29th in a draft with superior depth (2013) instead. There was simply no risk. The situation isn't nearly as simple for the Islanders. More importantly, the obviously poor choice the Devils made turning out poorly gives no indication as to what the Islanders should do.

 

[Jame]

The only way you can relate these two very different situations is by reducing them to overly an overly simplistic state.

correct

More importantly, the obviously poor choice the Devils made turning out poorly gives no indication as to what the Islanders should do.

correct

 

[flashsabre]

McDavid is a super talent but next year's draft is about the top end. Eichel and Barzal look like fantastic prospects too. By next year, might not be just about #1 but being top 3 or even top 5. It is still November, have to see where the NYI sit in June but it will be a tough choice if they are bottom 5 come the draft.

 

[couture23]

McDavid is a super talent but next year's draft is about the top end. Eichel and Barzal look like fantastic prospects too. By next year, might not be just about #1 but being top 3 or even top 5. It is still November, have to see where the NYI sit in June but it will be a tough choice if they are bottom 5 come the draft.

Aim for 1st overall.

Settle, and cry if you get another pick.

 

[Husko]

Questions like this need game-theory analysis to solve them.

Should we root for the Islanders tank?

As seen by the attachment, I would argue, no matter what the Islands do, we are either the same off or better off if the Islands have tanked.

Root for them to tank.

 

[Paxon]

Questions like this need game-theory analysis to solve them.

Should we root for the Islanders tank?

As seen by the attachment, I would argue, no matter what the Islands do, we are either the same off or better off if the Islands have tanked.

Root for them to tank.

Right, strictly from Buffalo's perspective, we need the Islanders to fail this season. If they defer, we need them to fail again next season. It's pretty simple. The only counterpoint is simply if someone wants to see Vanek and the Isles succeed.

 

[allsilverdreams]

ill take the 1st overall pick in 14 and the 11th pick as well.what happens if they do really good next year and it becomes a late pick??

 

[Beerz]

ill take the 1st overall pick in 14 and the 11th pick as well.what happens if they do really good next year and it becomes a late pick??

I'll take that risk considering there are no indications that they will improve a whole lot next year.

 

[Ron C.]

I have to root for an Islanders tank. If the pick is top 7, Snow will likely keep the pick. An extra pick in the McDavid draft would be my top choice.

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Right. We want a complete Islander franchise implosion. Something like this:

 

[Sean McG]

The impatient fan in me wants to see something tangible in return for Vanek - a prospect attached to the pick instead of 'just' a first round pick. But, whoever Buffalo drafts with the Isles pick isn't going to immediately come in and save the franchise... the rebuild is a multi-year thing. In the long run, getting another pick in the McDavid draft (not to mention Strome, Barzal, Eichel) is definitely more ideal.

 

[Paxon]

ill take the 1st overall pick in 14 and the 11th pick as well.what happens if they do really good next year and it becomes a late pick??

It won't become a late pick because the Islanders are not going deep in the playoffs next year, if they even make the playoffs. The 11th overall pick isn't so great most years. If they suck enough to defer the pick to next year, any non-playoff slot is a chance at McDavid. If they finish in the bottom 5 teams (which is realistic), it's a great chance at McDavid or another gamebreaking talent. Fearing missing out on an 11th overall pick because the NY Islanders might somehow be a great team next year seems kinda silly.

 

[haseoke39]

This morning, the Islanders pick is top 4.

I'm just letting this all add to the fantasy that we end up trading Vanek for McDavid, Moulson, and a 2nd.

Letting Snow have the opportunity to defer that pick til the McDavid draft might have been the most brilliant thing Darcy ever did.

 

[1972]

This morning, the Islanders pick is top 4.

I'm just letting this all add to the fantasy that we end up trading Vanek for McDavid, Moulson, and a 2nd.

Letting Snow have the opportunity to defer that pick til the McDavid draft might have been the most brilliant thing Darcy ever did.

Pierre Lebrun seems to think the Isles would give the Sabres the 2014 pick even if it were top 10.

 

[haseoke39]

Pierre Lebrun seems to think the Isles would give the Sabres the 2014 pick even if it were top 10.

I could see that at 9 or even 8. I have a much harder time seeing that at 3 (fingers crossed).

 

[Ethan Edwards]

Pierre Lebrun seems to think the Isles would give the Sabres the 2014 pick even if it were top 10.

Yeah, comparing the next two drafts at this point, they'd be hard-pressed to defer. I'd guess there would have to be a serious internal discussion to decide at what point you defer, if at all. Top 10? Give it up, no question. Top 6? Probably give it up. Top 4? It starts to get dicier and dicier the lower they finish in the standings. Defer and you run the serious risk of having another bad season and losing a lottery pick in what is so far a highly regarded 2015 draft. So many things to weigh for them, which they clearly didn't anticipate, thinking it was playoffs or bust. Still early, but the unlikely scenario is they defer, though who knows what else happens to influence things?

 

[1972]

I could see that at 9 or even 8. I have a much harder time seeing that at 3 (fingers crossed).

I think it would be pretty tough to defer a pick from a "weak" draft to an "elite" draft class. Especially if they pick up a 2014 1st if Vanek moves on. The season is still early and I doubt the end up below the top 6 picks.

 

[AirBriere48]

Yeah, comparing the next two drafts at this point, they'd be hard-pressed to defer. I'd guess there would have to be a serious internal discussion to decide at what point you defer, if at all. Top 10? Give it up, no question. Top 6? Probably give it up. Top 4? It starts to get dicier and dicier the lower they finish in the standings. Defer and you run the serious risk of having another bad season and losing a lottery pick in what is so far a highly regarded 2015 draft. So many things to weigh for them, which they clearly didn't anticipate, thinking it was playoffs or bust. Still early, but the unlikely scenario is they defer, though who knows what else happens to influence things?

It's not going to come down to the pick # so much as the particular player available at their spot. I'm guessing that they will have a draft board (just like everyone else) and they will make their decision to defer or not based on if one of their top guys is available when they are called to make the pick. I think that will be the process, though I do agree with the comments above that the perceived strength of next years draft will make it difficult for them to justify deferring.

 

[Deevo]

If the isles are a bottom dweller for the majority of the year, I could see a situation in which they trade Vanek at the deadline for enough assets (a 2014 first?) to allow them to justify against deferral.

As elite as the 2015 draft class is, can you imagine two top 5 picks this year? Holy Moses.

Reinhart+Bennett
Ekblad+Bennett

*drool*

 

[Zip15]

If the isles are a bottom dweller for the majority of the year, I could see a situation in which they trade Vanek at the deadline for enough assets (a 2014 first?) to allow them to justify against deferral.

As elite as the 2015 draft class is, can you imagine two top 5 picks this year? Holy Moses.

Reinhart+Bennett
Ekblad+Bennett

*drool*

I agree with you that if the Isles are out of it at the deadline, they'll trade him for a 1st and possibly be more likely to not defer to 2015. Especially if they acquire a pick in the top-20.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

It's not going to come down to the pick # so much as the particular player available at their spot.

Of course you don't base it solely on the position #. It comes down to the player, best available and/or needs, but as they continue to plummet in the standings (we hope), it makes the decision more and more interesting. Lots of season left (games and GM maneuvers), but I would love to see an actual dilemma here, where Garth-Wang have to decide between an excellent, high-end 2014 or a 2015.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

It's bull **** that the pick is even top 10 protected, if anything Buffalo should have got the option to defer it to 2015. If the Isles do end up keeping the pick this year I hope they are terrible like every year and finish even worse next year.I don't see why Regier agreed to that stipulation. I would have held fast for an unprotected 1st.

 

[Mit Yarrum]

It's bull **** that the pick is even top 10 protected, if anything Buffalo should have got the option to defer it to 2015. If the Isles do end up keeping the pick this year I hope they are terrible like every year and finish even worse next year.I don't see why Regier agreed to that stipulation. I would have held fast for an unprotected 1st.

That protected pick could be really good for us.