I think you have reasonable arguments, but I mustn't have got my point across. I'm not against picking up those guys at the deadline, it's wasting draft picks in terms of making the actual picks on guys who have that as their ceiling. I'd rather draft two flawed high skill guys and have one bust completely and the other "only" end up a 2nd/3rd liner rather than draft two guys that are never going to be more than 4th liners if they make it at all.
There are just as many cases of goalies coming from other teams or from low picks as there are of 1st rounders. Far more than any other position. That's not to mention the guys on teams that haven't won the cup. I'd be intrigued to know how many starters in the league were drafted in the 1st round and are still playing on the team that drafted them. It's a fair point though, I'd soften my position in hindsight to say definitely no goalies in the first 2 or 3 rounds.
I get your points, I think, I just have partial disagreements.
Goalies first - I agree they pretty much shouldn't be taken in the 1st (although how many 1st rounders are still with the team that drafted them full stop?) but 2nd/3rd? By the time we hit pick 50, we've mostly exhausted the sure fire guys and really good gambles, so we're hitting about the same level of uncertainty as goalies and most drafts, the ten best players from 2nd + 3rd rounds is going to include a few goalies. Also, while you can find good goalies later on, the amount available dwindles after round 3. Here's the guys who played NHL last season who were starters at some point in their career by round
1 - Vasilevskiy, Price, Fleury, Rask, Varlamov, Dubynk, Schneider, Bernier
2 - Hart, Markstrom, Blackwood, Gibson, Lehner, Crawford, Allen, Howard
3 - Binnington, Andersen, Bishop, Murray, Quick, Anderson,
4 - Holtby
5 - Hellebuyck, Smith, Miller
6 - Kuemper
7 - Lundqvist
I haven't included the undrafted or 8th rounders, but there's a very obvious tilt to drafting early if you want a starter. Right now there's only been one goalie starter drafted after the 3rd in the last 10 years.
Tbh, I started as "No goalies in the first 100 picks" but now I've examined it, I think that's when you need to strike and given how advantageous it is to have a constant stream of good goalies, that teams should strike often there.
As for picking high skill vs high other qualities late on... I'd rather swing high skill, but I'd rather have two 4th liners who top out at Brandon Tanev types than two busts. If the scouts say the high skill guys left are busts - which the vast majority are in the 5th/6th - and that the high other qualities can become Tanev-esque guys, then I'll follow them. I'm not gonna go mad against them going this way. I might if they always did that, but it's not like this scouting staff are afraid to recommend the high skill guys at this stage if they believe in them (Drozg, Almeida, Puustinen).
