Prospect Info: Chase Stillman (#29 overall)

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Someone mentioned Gallagher as a comp. I’m ok with that.

 

[Lou is God]

The best part of Stevens retiring was we slowly moved away from having every defensive prospect inexplicably compared to him.

Stevens was a full-time NHL player who scored 25 points in his D+1 year. Santini was a junior at Boston College in his D+3 season, Stevens scored 65 points in his third season in the NHL.

I know you know this about Stevens and I guess people mean the comparison in terms of late stage Stevens but it never made sense to me to compare a prospect with the end stages of a NHL player’s career.

My dislike for the comparison (which is probably is irrationally strong, but it’s still burns) came from particularly from people making it with David Hale (who turned 40! in June) who got drafted in the 1st round by scoring somewhat more than Santini did in the USHL but then preceded to never do that sort of thing again. (Merrill noticeably outperformed Santini in terms of scoring, he was predicted to go in second half of the 1st round but fell to us at #35 due to character questions after he was suspended at high school for an hazing/harassment incident.)

Santini Fun Fact: In his last season in Boston College, 2015-16, Santini played with Miles Woods (who had his big single NCAA season w/ 35 pts in 37 games at age 20), two of Tom Fitzgerald’s kids (lead scorer Ryan and Casey), and Chris Shero (yep).

Chris Shero sort of played, his Rudy-esque stats were 1GP 0 points that year and he had 3GP 0 points in his next, final season in 2016-17. Apparently that’s all you need to be amateur scout for NHL team because he became one on the Devils staff in 2017-18. (I NHL nepotism.) Looks like Chris is hanging in there as a scout with the team, he was with the team in 2020-21 and he’d still listed on the team directory.

Honestly, I think I just liked that they shared the same initials

 

[HyperX]

The best part of Stevens retiring was we slowly moved away from having every defensive prospect inexplicably compared to him.

Stevens was a full-time NHL player who scored 25 points in his D+1 year. Santini was a junior at Boston College in his D+3 season, Stevens scored 65 points in his third season in the NHL.

I know you know this about Stevens and I guess people mean the comparison in terms of late stage Stevens but it never made sense to me to compare a prospect with the end stages of a NHL player’s career.

My dislike for the comparison (which is probably is irrationally strong, but it’s still burns) came from particularly from people making it with David Hale (who turned 40! in June) who got drafted in the 1st round by scoring somewhat more than Santini did in the USHL but then preceded to never do that sort of thing again. (Merrill noticeably outperformed Santini in terms of scoring, he was predicted to go in second half of the 1st round but fell to us at #35 due to character questions after he was suspended at high school for an hazing/harassment incident.)

Santini Fun Fact: In his last season in Boston College, 2015-16, Santini played with Miles Woods (who had his big single NCAA season w/ 35 pts in 37 games at age 20), two of Tom Fitzgerald’s kids (lead scorer Ryan and Casey), and Chris Shero (yep).

Chris Shero sort of played, his Rudy-esque stats were 1GP 0 points that year and he had 3GP 0 points in his next, final season in 2016-17. Apparently that’s all you need to be amateur scout for NHL team because he became one on the Devils staff in 2017-18. (I NHL nepotism.) Looks like Chris is hanging in there as a scout with the team, he was with the team in 2020-21 and he’d still listed on the team directory.

I dont think you need high level hockey experience to scout hockey talent

with the world being so interconnected, and information coming in troves, I think if one has the right sense and takes the time they can scout hockey talent, especially amateur.

I could see the argument for pro hockey scouts likely requiring some pro hockey time. But come on, youre ruining my chances of becoming Devils GM one day (I stopped playing competitive in Bantam) lmao

 

[NJ Fan 12]

During an interview Fitzgerald said there were discussion to trade up from the 29th pick and target someone or trade back but said their guy wasn’t available anymore so they just sat back and took the pick. I believe Lysell, Othman, or Boucher would have been one of the players they would have traded up for if the opportunity was there.

I took that to mean Wallstedt but who knows?

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Guys, he’s not Gallagher. Gallagher is a bonafide first liner. If we’re lucky, we get a Josh Anderson type who’s a top 9 power forward. I’ll be happy with a third liner who can play with some skill

 

[NJ Fan 12]

Can guarantee I've seen him play more than Pronman. Pronman is wrong. Case closed.

Me when Pronman or The Athletic is cited as a "source".

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Guys, he’s not Gallagher. Gallagher is a bonafide first liner. If we’re lucky, we get a Josh Anderson type who’s a top 9 power forward. I’ll be happy with a third liner who can play with some skill

He is?

Hes been a 45-50 point player his entire career

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I absolutely love this pick for the Devils. Could end up being a part of a 3rd/4th line for us in a few years playing the role that the Gourde Coleman Goodrow line played for Tampa the past two years.

 

[Hisch13r]

He is?

Hes been a 45-50 point player his entire career

20th in 5v5 P/60 and 75th in all situations P/60 over the last 3 years. Consistently great underlying numbers. Yes, Gallagher is a first liner.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Gallagher was a 5th round pick. Who the hell knows how Stillman’s career will progress? That isn’t the likely outcome but that’s true of almost everyone selected outside of the top 5.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm going to complete my post-draft write up hopefully today or tomorrow, but I will give a word to the wise about Chase Stillman for the Chase Stillman critics, many of whom have never watched Chase Stillman play hockey.

Players with higher compete levels have higher development arcs.

Say it again. Repeat it like a mantra. Because, year in and year out, it's proven true.

Let's take the 2009 draft. Forwards Kyle Palmieri (#26) and Ryan O'Reilly (#33) were taken in the Stillman range, well after forwards Scott Glennie (#7), Peter Holland (#15) and Louis LeBlanc (#18). Were O'Reilly and Palmieri more skilled than those three sub-par draft-day disappointments? No. Were they bigger? Also no. Were they faster? Again, no. So, why did Palmieri and O'Reilly go on to outstanding careers, while three players drafted ahead of them washed out?

The answer is compete level and intelligence. Quite simply, Palmieri and O'Reilly are high-intensity, high-event, hard-working forwards who bust their butt to be better players every shift on the ice and certainly off the ice, as well. None of the trio of Glennie/Holland/LeBlanc were above-average in terms of compete and none played with particularly high anticipation/awareness, except for occasionally LeBlanc.

Chase Stillman has one of the best compete levels of any player in the entire 2021 draft class, the kid is an absolute animal out there, every second of every shift. He broke into the OHL in 2019-20, and was one of the three or four most impactful rookies in the entire league. Then, he worked his ass off all off-season to improve his skating from average, where it was in 2019, to a good to very good attribute, where it is now. It does not hurt that he's also physically grown a lot, but Stillman is a very smart, high-event, elite compete forward who has a development curve which I feel is quite steep in comparison to forwards who play with less ferocity and consistency.

And let's not make the mistake of thinking that Stillman is a player without skill. While no one is mistaking him for Kucherov in terms of puckhandling or passing vision, he is not weak in either area. But he's also a terrific shooter who is extremely adept at finding the soft areas of the ice to score. Combining that with his diligence and courage around the net, this is certainly a kid capable of being a complimentary player on an NHL 2nd line -- a player who stands up for his teammates, forechecks like a demon, crashes creases and bangs home rebounds which the Devils have seemingly scored off as scarcely as any team in the NHL over the past few seasons.

Again, we need to stress that the 2021 draft was not 2019. The Devils were not exactly passing on Pastrnak and Point level talents to draft Chase Stillman. Sure, I love Stankoven and Pinelli and Chibrikov -- but Stillman also has an intriguing upside and -- say it again for the folks in the back --

Players with higher compete levels have higher development curves.

Last year, the Devils drafted Dawson Mercer, who had one of the highest compete levels in the entire draft class. The year before, they drafted Patrick Moynihan, who had one of the highest compete levels in the entire draft class. This year, they drafted Chase Stillman, who has one of the highest compete levels in the entire draft. On an individual level, these are the types of players who routinely exceed expectation. On a team level, it's even better -- because these are the types of players you win with.

 

[The 29th Pick]

I'm going to complete my post-draft write up hopefully today or tomorrow, but I will give a word to the wise about Chase Stillman for the Chase Stillman critics, many of whom have never watched Chase Stillman play hockey.

Players with higher compete levels have higher development arcs.

Say it again. Repeat it like a mantra. Because, year in and year out, it's proven true.

Let's take the 2009 draft. Forwards Kyle Palmieri (#26) and Ryan O'Reilly (#33) were taken in the Stillman range, well after forwards Scott Glennie (#7), Peter Holland (#15) and Louis LeBlanc (#18). Were O'Reilly and Palmieri more skilled than those three sub-par draft-day disappointments? No. Were they bigger? Also no. Were they faster? Again, no. So, why did Palmieri and O'Reilly go on to outstanding careers, while three players drafted ahead of them washed out?

The answer is compete level and intelligence. Quite simply, Palmieri and O'Reilly are high-intensity, high-event, hard-working forwards who bust their butt to be better players every shift on the ice and certainly off the ice, as well. None of the trio of Glennie/Holland/LeBlanc were above-average in terms of compete and none played with particularly high anticipation/awareness, except for occasionally LeBlanc.

Chase Stillman has one of the best compete levels of any player in the entire 2021 draft class, the kid is an absolute animal out there, every second of every shift. He broke into the OHL in 2019-20, and was one of the three or four most impactful rookies in the entire league. Then, he worked his ass off all off-season to improve his skating from average, where it was in 2019, to a good to very good attribute, where it is now. It does not hurt that he's also physically grown a lot, but Stillman is a very smart, high-event, elite compete forward who has a development curve which I feel is quite steep in comparison to forwards who play with less ferocity and consistency.

And let's not make the mistake of thinking that Stillman is a player without skill. While no one is mistaking him for Kucherov in terms of puckhandling or passing vision, he is not weak in either area. But he's also a terrific shooter who is extremely adept at finding the soft areas of the ice to score. Combining that with his diligence and courage around the net, this is certainly a kid capable of being a complimentary player on an NHL 2nd line -- a player who stands up for his teammates, forechecks like a demon, crashes creases and bangs home rebounds which the Devils have seemingly scored off as scarcely as any team in the NHL over the past few seasons.

Again, we need to stress that the 2021 draft was not 2019. The Devils were not exactly passing on Pastrnak and Point level talents to draft Chase Stillman. Sure, I love Stankoven and Pinelli and Chibrikov -- but Stillman also has an intriguing upside and -- say it again for the folks in the back --

Players with higher compete levels have higher development curves.

Last year, the Devils drafted Dawson Mercer, who had one of the highest compete levels in the entire draft class. The year before, they drafted Patrick Moynihan, who had one of the highest compete levels in the entire draft class. This year, they drafted Chase Stillman, who has one of the highest compete levels in the entire draft. On an individual level, these are the types of players who routinely exceed expectation. On a team level, it's even better -- because these are the types of players you win with.

nice write up but I have 2 questions
1) How is compete level measured exactly?
2) How were so many professional scouts "wrong" about his draft position considering he's a son of a former NHLer and what you know about him? (how was he overlooked so badly in other words)

 

[Mike27Devils]

I took that to mean Wallstedt but who knows?

Possibly I wish we could find out who that player was.

 

[Guttersniped]

Draft position at the end of the first round is hardly set in stone. There is a reason Bob MacKenzie was nailing the draft and then peaced out at #15.

Pronman had Stillman at #51 on his “Consensus Big Board” but he had Shia Buium at #55 and us taking him at #29 instead in his mock draft. [Bob MacKenzie had him #42 and Buium #49.]

Wyatt Johnson was #44 on that Big Board and Dallas took him #23. [MacKenzie had him #40.]
Pronman had him going #25 in his mock draft to the Minnesota Wild, saying “Johnston’s stock shot up following the U18s and he’s now being talked about among scouts as a probable first-round pick”.

Tyler Boucher was #45 on that Big Board and Ottawa took him #10. [MacKenzie had him #29.]

Nolan Allen was #70 on that Big Board and Chicago took him #32. [MacKenzie had him #59.]

Pronman also had Matthew Knies going #28, to the Habs, in his mock draft, saying “saying teams expect he will for sure go in the second round, but I’ve heard some late first-round discussions about him recently”. The teams expected right, he went #57 to the Leafs, after being rated #60 in the Big Board and #62 by MacKenzie.

Yeah, I was intrigued by Francesco Pinelli, #22 on the BB and #23 by Bob, but much less so by Zach Dean, #32 on the BB and #31 by Bob. Dean went to Vegas right after us and Pinelli went #42.

Hello, even Shia Buium, Pronman’s mock draft pick for us at #29, went #36 to Detroit before Pinelli. Go Figure.

GM only have so many picks and they’ll have there reasons for picking prospects. There is actually no strict right or wrong answers for ranking prospects. I don’t know what people expect, exactly, flawless seers who know exactly what teams will do? Some sort of amazing scouting system that can perfectly foretell how these humans will perform years from now?

I feel like I’m plenty critical of Fitz’s approach, for example, nothing can convince that 100th pick on an obscure goalie wasn’t terrible value and that something went wrong there. I’m ok with the Stillman pick.

 

[Devil made me do it]

Having Mercer and Stillman in your team is a formula for something potentially special down the road. These two guys seem like the playoff types. Grinders and competitors. Difference makers. The Langenbrunners and Maddens of the world.

 

[njdevils1982]

Me when Pronman or The Athletic is cited as a "source".

View attachment 456311

 

[brakeyawself]

Guys, he’s not Gallagher. Gallagher is a bonafide first liner. If we’re lucky, we get a Josh Anderson type who’s a top 9 power forward. I’ll be happy with a third liner who can play with some skill

I think there were so many other players still on the board who would have been better selections at that point. Stillman certainly was not the BPA at least. They could have taken Chibrikov there, who ended up falling to the 2nd, and I would have thought it a much much better pick than Stillman.

Even if all they get out of this draft is a Luke Hughes reaching his full potential, overall I would say it's still a win. But it could have been so much better.

 

[BurntToast]

Draft position at the end of the first round is hardly set in stone. There is a reason Bob MacKenzie was nailing the draft and then peaced out at #15.

Pronman had Stillman at #51 on his “Consensus Big Board” but he had Shia Buium at #55 and us taking him at #29 instead in his mock draft. [Bob MacKenzie had him #42 and Buium #49.]

Wyatt Johnson was #44 on that Big Board and Dallas took him #23. [MacKenzie had him #40.]
Pronman had him going #25 in his mock draft to the Minnesota Wild, saying “Johnston’s stock shot up following the U18s and he’s now being talked about among scouts as a probable first-round pick”.

Tyler Boucher was #45 on that Big Board and Ottawa took him #10. [MacKenzie had him #29.]

Nolan Allen was #70 on that Big Board and Chicago took him #32. [MacKenzie had him #59.]

Pronman also had Matthew Knies going #28, to the Habs, in his mock draft, saying “saying teams expect he will for sure go in the second round, but I’ve heard some late first-round discussions about him recently”. The teams expected right, he went #57 to the Leafs, after being rated #60 in the Big Board and #62 by MacKenzie.

Yeah, I was intrigued by Francesco Pinelli, #22 on the BB and #23 by Bob, but much less so by Zach Dean, #32 on the BB and #31 by Bob. Dean went to Vegas right after us and Pinelli went #42.

Hello, even Shia Buium, Pronman’s mock draft pick for us at #29, went #36 to Detroit before Pinelli. Go Figure.

GM only have so many picks and they’ll have there reasons for picking prospects. There is actually no strict right or wrong answers for ranking prospects. I don’t know what people expect, exactly, flawless seers who know exactly what teams will do? Some sort of amazing scouting system that can perfectly foretell how these humans will perform years from now?

I feel like I’m plenty critical of Fitz’s approach, for example, nothing can convince that 100th pick on an obscure goalie wasn’t terrible value and that something went wrong there. I’m ok with the Stillman pick.

Just to piggyback back off your point; Pastujov… was a “1st round talent” and I don’t even know when he was finally picked. 3/4 round. Players simply didn’t drop the way media scouts had them ranked. Even in the top ten; Eklund was rumored at #1 and fell to 7, The Chad and both goalies were passed up a bunch of times..

 

[Unknown Caller]

Me when Pronman or The Athletic is cited as a "source".

View attachment 456311

What is he being cited as a "source" of? It's his professional evaluation. Attacking the veracity of a source rather than the substance of the evaluation/facts being presented isn't even an argument.

It's literally Pronman's only job to watch and evaluate prospects. He was in person in Dallas for the U18s. You can disagree with his opinion, but it's an interesting take to completely write off anything Pronman or the Athletic says as if they're Eklund. Mind blowing that people here claim that Pronman is uninformed.

Again, it's reasonable to disagree with his opinion on the merits of his substantive evaluation. But to act like he doesn't watch the prospects or is unreliable is a horrendous argument.

 

[Offseason Champs]

It’s a good point and also important to note different scouts value different aspects of play style and rank them accordingly.

also to the person wondering about compete level and how it’s calculated my personal opinion is that you can gauge a player’s compete level by looking at their work on and off the ice. On the ice it’s like how many shifts do they take off, do they sag when the game is lopsided in either direction? How do they react when there’s a small chance of being successful on a puck retrieval on the forecheck or giving up if they lose a step on the backcheck. Intangibles I guess.

off the ice do they look to improve weakness areas, how do they spend their time away from the rink and other stuff like that. Steven said in the summary thread that stillman worked his ass off on skating when it was his weakness and improved it. He could have coasted and doubled down on his current play style but instead he wanted to shore up deficiencies in his game. I think all of that goes into compete level. It’s a nebulous and hard to define thing, but I feel it’s similar to someone’s character.

 

[StevenToddIves]

nice write up but I have 2 questions
1) How is compete level measured exactly?
2) How were so many professional scouts "wrong" about his draft position considering he's a son of a former NHLer and what you know about him? (how was he overlooked so badly in other words)

1) No way to measure, you just have to watch the kids. This is why draft analysts who slant too much towards the statistical and not enough towards the scouting tend to be weaker than the guys like Robinson and Kournianos etc. who factor in intangibles. For example, if you watch Dawson Mercer, you are immediately blown away by the amount of ferocity he plays with every second of every shift. It's just obvious. He changes the energy every time he's out there. Matt Beniers is the same way. Then there are players like William Stromgren who had all the physical tools to be a top 15 pick, but he fell far below this because he does not always look engaged on the ice at all.

2) I feel NHL scouts agree with me in weighing towards intangibles. I rank compete level and hockey IQ among the most important traits of a player -- it's why I love players like Beniers and Eklund early in the first round, and why I love players like Stillman and Stankoven later in the draft. Many draft writers can be a bit guilty of just following the kids statistically and watching their highlights, which do not tell the story about intangible qualities. I'm just guessing here, but that's my best hypothesis.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think there were so many other players still on the board who would have been better selections at that point. Stillman certainly was not the BPA at least. They could have taken Chibrikov there, who ended up falling to the 2nd, and I would have thought it a much much better pick than Stillman.

Even if all they get out of this draft is a Luke Hughes reaching his full potential, overall I would say it's still a win. But it could have been so much better.

Like you I am a big fan of Chibrikov. I also was hugely high on Stankoven and Pinelli. But this does not mean I was unhappy with Chase Stillman, because he is not only a very good prospect, but he also adds a dimension of physicality and high-compete ferocity which the Devils have lacked up front in their top 9 for several seasons. But the idea that Stillman is just a hard-hitter is simply not true, he's much, much more:

 

[StevenToddIves]

What is he being cited as a "source" of? It's his professional evaluation. Attacking the veracity of a source rather than the substance of the evaluation/facts being presented isn't even an argument.

It's literally Pronman's only job to watch and evaluate prospects. He was in person in Dallas for the U18s. You can disagree with his opinion, but it's an interesting take to completely write off anything Pronman or the Athletic says as if they're Eklund. Mind blowing that people here claim that Pronman is uninformed.

Again, it's reasonable to disagree with his opinion on the merits of his substantive evaluation. But to act like he doesn't watch the prospects or is unreliable is a horrendous argument.

I agree that Corey Pronman is a terrific prospect writer. I disagree with him often, but he is a terrific writer and diligent researcher. He knows the prospects. I feel where he fails a bit is when he tries to be a draft-day insider, because although he talks to scouts I do not feel he has the high-level contacts of a McKenzie or LeBrun.

 

[brakeyawself]

It’s a good point and also important to note different scouts value different aspects of play style and rank them accordingly.

also to the person wondering about compete level and how it’s calculated my personal opinion is that you can gauge a player’s compete level by looking at their work on and off the ice. On the ice it’s like how many shifts do they take off, do they sag when the game is lopsided in either direction? How do they react when there’s a small chance of being successful on a puck retrieval on the forecheck or giving up if they lose a step on the backcheck. Intangibles I guess.

off the ice do they look to improve weakness areas, how do they spend their time away from the rink and other stuff like that. Steven said in the summary thread that stillman worked his ass off on skating when it was his weakness and improved it. He could have coasted and doubled down on his current play style but instead he wanted to shore up deficiencies in his game. I think all of that goes into compete level. It’s a nebulous and hard to define thing, but I feel it’s similar to someone’s character.

Yea to an extent. All though I tend to think that scouting is such an imperfect "science" or imperfect "skill". It's more so, any scout can get it right and any scout can get it wrong. Sometimes their personal criteria measures out and sometimes it doesn't. This is why drafting players is such a gamble, a high risk/high reward process in general.

And for every "steal" a scout pulls out of their hat, there are probably 10 "misses" of the same magnitude. Even in the first round. On average, how many players in the 1st round generally completely bust? At least a quarter I would think, in some drafts as much or even more than half. So that means ALL the scouts got it wrong about those players. Everyone who predicted those players to be first rounders or even just NHL players got it wrong. And there are bound to be players in rounds 2-7 that teams passed up on for those busts, that turn out to be great NHLers. It's not that the scouts don't know what they are doing, even if they do all have there individual perspective. It's that scouting is simply not something you are going to get right much of the time. And even NHL scouts have to aggregate rankings and probably weigh the opinions of their peers to a large extent. If I love a prospect but 20 of my peers are telling me I am wrong, I am going to question and further investigate why that difference of opinion exists. And maybe some scouts don't do this and aren't self aware or reflective about their opinion. But then I would say those people probably shouldn't be scouts in the first place.

 

[brakeyawself]

Like you I am a big fan of Chibrikov. I also was hugely high on Stankoven and Pinelli. But this does not mean I was unhappy with Chase Stillman, because he is not only a very good prospect, but he also adds a dimension of physicality and high-compete ferocity which the Devils have lacked up front in their top 9 for several seasons. But the idea that Stillman is just a hard-hitter is simply not true, he's much, much more:

That's fair. I am feeling similarly about the Rangers Othmann pick. Like I really do like Othmann. But not at the cost of passing up on Lucius. And not without trading into the 2nd to grab one of Stankoven or Pinelli.

It's more an asset management concern than a knock against the specific player. The players are what they are. They can't control if some GM takes them ahead of where they probably should go. Or think of it like this, in 2004 the Caps could have taken Malkin instead of Ovechkin. And I am sure they would be very happy with having Malkin. But they passed up on Ovechkin. And for the rest of his career, people would be saying, I can't believe we passed up Ovechkin for Malkin.