Discussion in 'Boston Bruins' started by Fenway, Jul 6, 2018.
Let’s start this out on a good note.
Is Charlie McAvoy a future Norris caliber Dman? Yes/No? Give your reasons and if you think he is, how long before he gets there? If you want, feel free to comment on what his next contract looks like and when it gets done.
I can see him being a Norris contender. Think he showed this past year prior to his heart condition then his knee (and with his name being tossed into the Calder conversation) that he is going to be a terrific D-man. Now, if I were a betting man (I`m not) or a well respected evaluator of talent (again, I am not), I would say realistically I could see him contending for a Norris in about 2 years. There are still a few aspects of his game he needs to improve upon and I`m a believer they are areas where it`s more a case of experience.
Picking the spot to pinch and not get flat footed as we saw a few times this year, consistently being the man in the corner or front of the net who has the superior body position on the opponent. He did those well for a kid but work to be done. Then you toss in the offensive potential. I haven`t a clue if he`ll be a guy like Krug who becomes THE offensive focal point on the back end but there`s a chance he could be.
As for next contract? Good lord, no clue, I suppose what he does this season will dictate much of that, he`ll get paid but how much we`ll see
His only real flaw that I can see is he either isn't a good enough shooter as a point threat, or is simply reluctant to shoot (or a combination of A and B).
I'm not sure if he ever wins a Norris, but like guys like Pietrangelo, he'll likely be in the conversation for the next decade or more. A legitimate No.1 D-man among the top 10-15 D in the game eventually.
I'd extend him at 8 years x 7 million yesterday. That's less than Ekblad signed for 2 years ago when he re-upped his deal a year from the end of his ELC.
If you compare Mcavoy’s stats his first 63 game season to Karlsson’s first 60 game season, Mcavoy has more goals and assists than Karlsson had. Sure Karlsson played on a worse team but I don’t think you can write off Mcavoy’s goal scoring potential just yet.
He’s already great at sneaking into weak coverage and capitalizing, so he doesn’t need to rely on a Johnny Rocket to score goals. He’ll also score off the rush like his first NHL goal.
His playmaking is his strongest asset. He’ll put up a lot of assists on the power play.
Do I think he can win the Norris? Absolutely. Not only does he have the offensive potential, but the physicality and defensive game are all tops. Highlight reel hits will score him some Norris votes I think.
I think a better question would be what young defenseman (18-24) has as complete of a game. Werenski?
As good as Sergachev is I don’t think he was as impressive as Mcavoy when they played each other during the regular season. Sergachev played around 14 minutes while Mcavoy played 25+ and controlled the game.
I think sky's the limit for McAvoy . He needs to have more confidence in his shot if he's eventually gonna be our #1 PP quarterback . I think he has a great shot, just needs to use it more.
I definitely think a Norris is in the cards for Charlie and I think the upcoming season we'll see a big improvement in his play and he'll keep getting better with experience.
It really tough to predict but I say Norris nominee's beginning in 2019-20 and will win his first Norris in 3-5 years from now and will consistantly in the conversation as one of the few elite defensemen in the league..
Agree with others that McAvoy needs to shoot more. A rookie top-pairing d-man playing tough assignments shooting 9.1% is pretty darn impressive. Compare that with Norris caliber d-men in the NHL. Then throw in his defensive prowess. And he's only a rookie. It would be asinine to suggest this kid cannot become a regular Norris candidate at some point. The only thing standing in McAvoy's way is injury. If he stays healthy he is going to be something else.
We pray that he's not another Gord Kluzak
Starting sometime this year or maybe not until next year, McAvoy will be the best Bruin defenseman since Bourque. I fully expect him to put up more points this year than Chara's best season. Last year's defensive even strength numbers during the regular season had McAvoy in the top 5 of the league. He's also big enough and fast enough to engage physically with any forward--and is willing to do so.
I think the only thing holding him back from 'best defenseman' award would be PK responsibilities and I would expect to see those rise over the next couple of years. They really should use him a lot more on the PK this year so Chara doesn't have as massive a workload.
My guess would be age 24/25 is when he gets legit consideration for awards.
I don't feel comfortable answering the Norris question. He's played all of 63 games. I just think it's too soon to make that judgement.
However, I do have an answer on his contract. When you look at the second contracts of the top young defensemen of the past 5 years or so, outside of Ekblad, the cap hit % has been in the 7-8% range for. They've also mostly signed for 6 years. Using the current $79.5 million salary cap, that would give McAvoy somewhere between $5.565 and $6.36.
My prediction would be something like $6.0 for 6 years, though I don't expect it to get done anytime soon. I think both sides would probably prefer to wait. I think the Bruins want to see him replicate his rookie season, and McAvoy's agent wants to see if he can get something closer to the Ekblad contract, not to mention all of RFAs that are still unsigned. I just hope they don't wait as long as they did for Pastrnak.
Norris idk, the NHL has showed that they haves moved on to pick guys that score the most points while also playing good defense but not necessarily great defense
Based on what I’ve seen from Charlie so far, I’m not sure he’s a guy that will ever break 50 points, and that likely won’t be enough. He has electric offensive skills, but he strikes me more as someone who will always be far more concerned with the defensive side of the game and to me that’s a good thing.
I’d rather have Duncan Keith than Brent Burns, that sort of thing.
What id like to see him become a guy that makes no mistakes and skates the pick up effortlessly and turns on the offense hard when the team needs a lift, much like chara does
The kid has had one full season. Meh season due to injuries. I think he can play better and hopefully he will. To put a price on his contract at this point is nonsense. This year will be telling and I’m not sure he gets that type of money. Everyone thought Pasternak was in the 8 mil range. How that work out. The Bruins don’t have to be like the Jones’ our there throwing money. Let’s also see where he does before anointing this kid a Norris contender. Too much pedestal talk here.
He seems to get a lot of media love, which is a big part of the equation.
Hes a good player and should be a first pairing guy for a while but the Norris is an offense first award. Hes good in transition so his offensive contributions aren't solely determined by point total. I'd rather him be able to play 25 a night vs top lines than flirt with 70 points taking a lot of risks to be in contention for a Norris.
Also lets see how his shot looks in a couple years. Hes young and that is something he can get significantly better at.
Him and Pasta both passed the eye test from the get go for me. I don’t care if he wins the Norris at all as long as he is a member of this team for a long time.
Off the ice he’s also everything you want from a player
Spinners are running a deal for "Bruins Night" on August 31st: $50 for game ticket, home plate BBQ entry, VIP meet and greet with McAvoy and signed baseball. Good deal IMO.
Lowell Spinners Charlie McAvoy Package
I think he wins it at least once, but perhaps not more than that? At this point we really can't say. After next season I think we will have a much better idea of how far he can go. He could turn out to be a Dougie Hamilton, who many of us hoped would be a generational D-man but has since not really broken the "good" barrier. (fine with me as he is no longer a Bruin) Charlie could be another Hamilton but I hope he proves to be more than that.
He's a 1/2 point per game player, as a rookie, with a corrected medical condition and then serious knee injury, and only getting 2nd PP duty while playing excellent defense.
To think he is limited to 50 points in the NHL seems wrong to me. With the current Bruins system of activating D, he should hit 60-70 points for a year or two at his peak, especially when he eventually becomes the #1 PP option.
If he gets 55-60 points this year with the same or better defense, he'll probably get the same contract as Pastrnak and we will all be happy with that outcome.
I would like to see him shoot the puck a lot more. He's got a decent shot, and is smart and skilled enough to get it through traffic, but he looks for the pass too oftern. He averaged less than a shot per game in the playoffs an barely over a shot per game during the regular season. I'd like to see him up towards 2 shots per game.
I'm not sure who thought Pastrnak was getting $8 million. The recent history of top young wingers second contracts shows that they get 8-9% of the cap, which is right where Pastrnak ended up (8.89%).
As I said in my post, my estimate is purely based on the recent history of top young defensemen, which I think most of us would agree McAvoy is. For the past 5+ years, those top young defensemen have been on average getting something like 7.27% of the salary cap with a 6 year contract. $6 million is 7.55% of the cap, so I'm being a little aggressive there. Maybe a better estimate is $5.75 million, but that's what the standard second contract has been for top young defensemen.
CapFriendly was a great resource for this. I was looking at guys like Justin Faulk, Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Rasmus Ristolainen, Seth Jones, Dougie Hamilton, Colton Parayko, and Jaccob Slavin. They basically all got 5/6 years at 7%+ of the salary cap for their second contracts. Assuming he doesn't significantly regress next year, that's what we can expect McAvoy to get.
jones is very good but not fair to compare McAvoy to other teams we are bias
better to compare him to ex bruins. other than bourque hes the best kid dman ive seen in 45 years following the team
that includes a couple legitimate first pair studs.... and kluzak before his injuries
agreed. When he does shoot, from the games I watched, he does a very good job of getting it through traffic and it`s usually a shot that enables forwards to potentially tip in.
Seen this a lot with rookies (deferring), Bjork was doing it quite a bit prior to the injury, missed out on a few golden opportunities to pass. I have no idea if this is true but wonder if it has to do a bit with playing with established players and they don`t want to be deemed selfish despite my belief those vets would be fully endorsing the shot when it`s there?
110% different level but in my first year of Bantam, I was an underage kid who was brought up with loads of injuries to the team which enabled them to allow for someone not in that age group to dress. I wound up finishing the year there as two of the kids never returned from injury, took me about 10 games to not do the same, consistently giving the puck up to one of the older kids until my coach and captain of the team insisted I shoot
Yeah he really hasn't been a goal scorer at any level.
Would be nice to get about 10 goals a year from him but I don't expect him to be much more than that.
As long as he is getting the puck to the net for tips, deflections and things that might not count as goals then his shot is good enough.
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