Chances of 05-06 Season Happening

[NewBreed19]

100% Chance.

You guys have to be nuts to think that the NHLPA will go another season saying "no" to deals. This is the same union that preached the cap for over a year and has finally moved off of it. They're weakening.

I thought that you said a deal would be done for this season.I guess you were off by a long shot.

 

[sundstrom]

i actually think we'll see a deal sometime in May/June and in order to mend fences, you'll see the players taking a heavy role in rules changes (mostly from the Shanahan conference). the NHLPA is definately weakening and they can't give up two years of salary

 

[mr gib]

Goodenow's exit strategy is waiting until 1/2006 to see if the owners collapse.Hope Mike Modano likes Russia next fall if he wants to make money

goodenow told these guys to put half their wages away at the beginning of last season - so modano at 9 mil means he saved 4.5 - 4.5 times a conservative estimate of 10 percent return on investment = no need to play at all - they can wait this out -

 

[Jaded-Fan]

goodenow told these guys to put half their wages away at the beginning of last season - so modano at 9 mil means he saved 4.5 - 4.5 times a conservative estimate of 10 percent return on investment = no need to play at all - they can wait this out -

Good, so Madona can wait as can 4 or 5 of his friends. What about the half the league that has lost a quarter of their lifetime earnings (which are far less than Modano's btw) and counting?

 

[Chileiceman]

50/50 chance they'll play

 

[mr gib]

Good, so Madona can wait as can 4 or 5 of his friends. What about the half the league that has lost a quarter of their lifetime earnings (which are far less than Modano's btw) and counting?

hopefully they heeded bobs warning and saved some jack - most of them are in europe getting their 10 k from the union and 5 to 10 k from wages - not too bad - they can wait it out too -

 

[Jaysfanatic*]

The players are in a winning situation right now, because of ESPN's pressure on the owners, and the fact that sponsorship deals are made in May, so, the NHL will be under tremendous financial pressure, they need to get it done, the owners cannot afford to let this thing drag on much longer.

 

[Lowetide]

I'll say 20% chance they start on time, 10% they go with replacements 10% the PA implodes and they agree in summer.

By January, I would say there is a 100% chance there is a season simply because at some point the owners in every city need to know there is still a market for their product. Who occupies those uniforms is an open question.

Scott Ferguson's NHL career may not be over. :lol

 

[mr gib]

The players are in a winning situation right now, because of ESPN's pressure on the owners, and the fact that sponsorship deals are made in May, so, the NHL will be under tremendous financial pressure, they need to get it done, the owners cannot afford to let this thing drag on much longer.

i agree - just wait it out - whatever and whenever -

 

[Jaded-Fan]

The players are in a winning situation right now, because of ESPN's pressure on the owners, and the fact that sponsorship deals are made in May, so, the NHL will be under tremendous financial pressure, they need to get it done, the owners cannot afford to let this thing drag on much longer.

Why is that? True, it is some pressure but not how you are painting it. The league is at the bottom right now, once they settle they will get back sponsers, and at the same levels. How much further down can they go from $$$ like $60 million from ESPN? I think that at this point getting the right deal matters more to the owners, if they did not feel that way they would have caved before losing the season.

 

[Mountain Dude]

The players are in a winning situation right now, because of ESPN's pressure on the owners, and the fact that sponsorship deals are made in May, so, the NHL will be under tremendous financial pressure, they need to get it done, the owners cannot afford to let this thing drag on much longer.

Are you kidding? The owners have no financial pressure on them. If the NHL folds the owners walk away with massive losses, however, they walk away millionaires and successful business man, and will continue to be successful with new businesses, what exactly do the players walk away with?

 

[mr gib]

Why is that? True, it is some pressure but not how you are painting it. The league is at the bottom right now, once they settle they will get back sponsers, and at the same levels. How much further down can they go from $$$ like $60 million from ESPN? I think that at this point getting the right deal matters more to the owners, if they did not feel that way they would have caved before losing the season.

from the owners perspective i think they're gonna take a crack at replacements - they have nothing to lose not to try it -

 

[mr gib]

Are you kidding? The owners have no financial pressure on them. If the NHL folds the owners walk away with massive losses, however, they walk away millionaires and successful business man, and will continue to be successful with new businesses, what exactly do the players walk away with?

the big boys - leafs avs rangers etc - they are not going anywhere - it will be bettman if this gets much worse

 

[Thornton97]

I say it is 100% certain that we will see the "NHL" return next season. Not a chance they lose a second year. Whether that includes all of the NHLPA....I'm sceptical. I don't see us starting on time...maybe a 25% chance; I see a deal getting struck in November and finally underway right around Christmas time. There will be signifcant talks right before the draft, but nothing will come out of it. I also see talks getting stated after the BoG meeting, but those will be short. Just another opportunity to express their philosophical differences.

 

[Tb0ne]

It all depends if they try and get an impasse declared this summer, if they do, and they win, then obviously there will be a season.

I think specific teams rosters will cross the lines to work.

If Mario crosses in Pittsburg then I think many of his teammates will follow.
I get the feeling players will cross in Phoenix if Gretzky convinces them. Dayrl Sutter aparantly said the majority of Calgary Flames players would cross and I'm sure there are many other teams where a portion of the team would cross.

They just have to get the snow ball rolling down the hill, cause at some point it'll become too big and fall apart.

If they loose the impasse to the players and are ordered to pay them back wages, then the league will probably have to fold. Then either the players or owners will have to start a new league.

To me, it all depends on when and if they win the Impasse..

If they win in the summer, 100% there will be a season and by the end of it only the most stubborn players wil not have joined.

If they loose in the summer, then the NHL will probably cease to exist when they ordered to pay back wages to the players.

If they don't try and get an impasse in the summer, then it will probably drag on to either the start of the next season.. which will probably then pass, then at the half way point I think they would come to an agreement as they realise fans will probably murder them if they don't.

 

[Egil]

My Guess is that the owners don't try to declare impasse until Dec. of next year. By waiting through the start of next season, he puts even MORE pressure on the players when he finally implements a CBA. By waiting until the maximum presusre is applied, he stands a better chance of having a large % of NHLPA members cross the picket line and play, which is why the NHL would declare impasse anyways. If you do it in September, their is a large risk of the PA holding out long enough to maybe win in court. If you do it later, the Union should be splintered so that what happens in court doesn't really matter.

 

[Scoogs]

Whether its the full season, or half... I say 100%... There is absolutely no way that they NHL can survive 2 full seasons locked out. And both sides know this.

I mean... they aren't stupid, are they?

 

[Levitate]

i think both sides are eventually gonna crack...or i'd like to think so anyways

cuz frankly both sides can't really afford to let this drag on forever. i wouldn't dismiss the financial pressure on the owners...there are bills to pay and they have no revenue, and they'll be losing all of their revenue streams for the future as well, and it's not so simple as to say "they'll just get that right back". the NHL is not at the bottom of the barrel financially yet, but it can get there if it's not careful

and of course there is pressure on the players...they're all getting paid through the NHLPA some money per month and that will continue till 2006 i believe, but it's still a hit over what they were getting before.

idealy both sides will bend on some issues and a decent compromise will be reached...if not, i dunno, it's gonna get even more ugly. i think it's in the best interest of the league in general to get something in place for next year...you don't want to start another locked out season cuz it just compounds the problems even more.

 

[Tb0ne]

I think they only need maybe 30-50% of players (especially older/respected players) to cross the lines and play with the replacement players.

When/If they win the impasse, before the start of next season, I think they will reach those sorts of numbers.

If the fans show up and specific teams cross on mass (like I said the majority of Calgary Flames aparantly will cross according to Daryl Sutter).. then I think many players will take a month or two and join over the course of the season.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

I think, 100% the CBA will be resolved by this summer.

There is plenty of pressure eventhough games aren't set to start until the Fall.

Both sides are getting absolutely murdered on the PR front. Sponsors will be killing owners. ESPN and the TV situation. Season tickets will come due soon. Players are pushing one year of not getting paid. I think that if the draft that is not reasonably close to being "on time" there will be some nasty legal issues to deal with, which they don't want on top of all the other crap, not to mention needing some time to sort out the free agent mess that is on the leagues hands once play resumes.

This league needs to get on its feet ASAP and start working on damage repair -- immediately.

I know I'll regret saying this, but -- the owners and players are dumb, but they aren't THAT dumb.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I know I'll regret saying this, but -- the owners and players are dumb, but they aren't THAT dumb.

I have absolute faith in the stupidity of both sides.

 

[CarlRacki]

I think they only need maybe 30-50% of players (especially older/respected players) to cross the lines and play with the replacement players.

It may not take even that many. In the 1987 NFL strike, only about 100 players (roughly 7 percent of the union) crossed before the union caved.

That said, I'd be surprised if that many players crossed immediately, But give it a month or so, and they'll start trickling in.

 

[arnie]

I also expect Jan 2006. No way will they have the league going in the fall.

I vote with you. The owners have no reason to make further concessions until them. The regular season is basically a loss leader for the NHL. They make their real money during the playoffs. Until there is pressue for them to save the 06 playoffs, they will do nothing.

The players on the other hand will continue to lose salary in the fall while watching minor leaguers develop more and more. The pressue on the will become enormous.

The game is now the NHL's to lose.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Tell us your chances of the 05-06 season happening, and why you think that. Also, assume there will be no scabs for the purposes of this thread.

I give it a 1/20 chance of happening. The only way its gonna happen, is if the players cave hard, really hard, because the offer on the owners side is just gonna get worse.

Zero, zilch, nada...

 

[nyrmessier011]

I would honestly say 50-50...and Im pessimistic through this entire lockout...without going into detailed explination...

I believe that the NHL's declaration of an impasse can not be recognized by the labor board because of how close they really are. I think the NLRB will not allow it...the owners do not want to miss another puck drop, or atleast dont want to miss a full season...I think it all comes down to an impasse...if they can use replacements, id say to expect it in either Jan or in Oct 2006...if they can't I would say to expect it by Oct or definetly by January