gwh
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2013
- 3,688
- 622
We are discussing in the Laine 5 goal game thread about the probability of Laine repeating the 5 goal effort during his career. Nobody has done this since Lemiux in the turn of the 90s.
However long time since high school and can't do this simple math anymore:
This year he has
5 shots in 5 games. (18.6 games per 82 season)
6 shots in 3 games (11.2 games per 82 season)
7 shots in 2 games (7.5 games per 82 season)
Most likely his production drops off after 15 seasons. He has been playing in 95.1% of the available games, making his season length 78 games. His maximum productive games available is 1170 assuming no major injuries.
5 shots in 269 career games
6 shots in 162 career games
7 shots in 108 career games
His career shooting is 18.3% so far.
What is Laine's chance to score 5 or more goals in his career? I am getting 5.5% for 5 shots, 16.9% for 6 shots and a whopping 31.1% for 7 shots.
This totals the chance to repeat during 15 year career at 53%. (which i am quite sure is incorrectly high, due 20 years departure from the math classes)
Anyone with actual math skills willing to give Laine's repeat chance a proper go?
However long time since high school and can't do this simple math anymore:
This year he has
5 shots in 5 games. (18.6 games per 82 season)
6 shots in 3 games (11.2 games per 82 season)
7 shots in 2 games (7.5 games per 82 season)
Most likely his production drops off after 15 seasons. He has been playing in 95.1% of the available games, making his season length 78 games. His maximum productive games available is 1170 assuming no major injuries.
5 shots in 269 career games
6 shots in 162 career games
7 shots in 108 career games
His career shooting is 18.3% so far.
What is Laine's chance to score 5 or more goals in his career? I am getting 5.5% for 5 shots, 16.9% for 6 shots and a whopping 31.1% for 7 shots.
This totals the chance to repeat during 15 year career at 53%. (which i am quite sure is incorrectly high, due 20 years departure from the math classes)
Anyone with actual math skills willing to give Laine's repeat chance a proper go?