Confirmed Trade: [CGY/EDM] James Neal for Milan Lucic (12.5% retained) and a 2020 conditional 3rd round pick Part 2

[McFlyingV]

I guess it gives hope for a better shot.

But you have to admit it was a hellish year for Neal in Calgary and they are taking more money(cap wise) than what Lucic was bringing them.
At 32y the odds at longterm improvements aren't at the highest.

500k is pretty minor so that is not a huge deal. You can make up most of that difference having a league minimum player on your roster with Neal sent to the minors if you really wanted to.

It's impossible to know if Neal has fully fallen off a cliff or if a shooting % that was half his career norm, and playing a bottom 6 role for the first time in his career (which he reportedly wasn't happy about) are the reasons why he dropped from a 25 goal scorer in 71 games the previous year. Either way, I like his chances of bouncing back a hell of a lot more than Lucic who spent half his season in the top 6 and still only put up 6 goals and 20P despite not missing time due to injury like Neal had.

 

[Wewillrise]

Neal>Brower>>Lucic

 

[McFlyingV]

Imo, it will be close.

Either way, it’s funny because all of last year oilers fans laughed at the Flames for having Neal and how bad he was. And Flames fans/HF in general laughed at Lucic for being bad and useless. Just goes to show.

As a Flames fans, I don’t think it’s as bad as some people say it is for either team. The “what these players used to be” factor is making people think that each will magically be what they were or close to it.

I actually thought Neal was a solid signing for you guys that was a year or 2 too long when the deal was signed. I don't think many people expected him to struggle and not fit in Calgary the way he did, but obviously as rival fans we enjoyed seeing it happen. If Neal's a mess this year I'll concede he's done, but one bad year with reduced opportunity compared to 10 good ones with good opportunity leads me to believe there's at least a chance he bounces back and contributes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maybe this has been answered so I apologize if it has. If Lucic refuses to waive for the expansion draft in 2021, what would it cost to buy him out at that point? Looks like he has $2.5M bonus+$2.5M salary (not counting retention) in 21/22 and $3M/$1M in 22/23.

2021-22	Modified NTC, NMC	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$0	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$5,000,000	$5,000,000
2022-23	Modified NTC, NMC	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$0	$3,000,000	$1,000,000	$4,000,000	$4,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ManofSteel55]

If this exact trade was proposed prior to the trade, Flames fans would have laughed their asses off and expected a first round pick added, at least. Now there's some Flames fans trying to justify it. Face it, Calgary got bent over.

It was discussed and Flames fans were disgusted by the thought of it, ha ha.

I think every fanbase does it though. Try to see how it can work out for your team. Not every fanbase is as cynical as Oiler fans can be. They aren't used to just assuming their trades will backfire like some Oiler fans are, ha ha.

 

[McFlyingV]

Maybe this has been answered so I apologize if it has. If Lucic refuses to waive for the expansion draft in 2021, what would it cost to buy him out at that point? Looks like he has $2.5M bonus+$2.5M salary (not counting retention) in 21/22 and $3M/$1M in 22/23.

2021-22	Modified NTC, NMC	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$0	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	$5,000,000	$5,000,000
2022-23	Modified NTC, NMC	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	$0	$3,000,000	$1,000,000	$4,000,000	$4,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Cap hit for Calgary
2021/22: 3.57M
2022/23: 4.89M
2023/24: 0.51M
2024/25: 0.51M

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Cap hit for Calgary
2021/22: 3.57M
2022/23: 4.89M
2023/24: 0.51M
2024/25: 0.51M

Thanks. And what would the real money cost of a buyout be?

 

[HenrikW]

I think this is a good trade.

For Oilers this is a big win. If Neal can score 15 goals on the 2nd line thats a big uppgrade over Lucic. Its possible to buy out Neal if need be and there is not longer a looming NMC threat

For Calgary, given where he’ll play on the roster, Lucic wont be much of a downgrade. They replace someone pouting over icetime for someone eager to prove himself to himself.

 

[Sam Spade]

The next time someone criticizes someone on this board with the old "Yeah sure YOU could do a better job than an NHL GM, ".........

 

[McFlyingV]

Thanks. And what would the real money cost of a buyout be?

2.33M cost on 9M owed. So 6.66M saved. Not sure how it works with Edmonton retaining on real dollars though.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

2.33M cost on 9M owed. So 6.66M saved. Not sure how it works with Edmonton retaining on real dollars though.

thanks. I think that the signing bonuses get paid regardless of the buy-out so that's another $5.5M on top of the $2.33M, not accounting for retention.

So worse case, if Lucic refuses to waive, rather than lose an asset they want to keep, the Flames can pay $7.8M in real money and have a cap hit of:

2021/22: 3.57M
2022/23: 4.89M
2023/24: 0.51M
2024/25: 0.51M

Not pretty, but depending on the asset that they might lose, something they might do.

 

[Vitto79]

The worst part is Lucic has to be protected in expansion

 

[Holymakinaw]

Congrats to Edmonton on a big win here. Moving that terrible Lucic contract will be huge for them, going forward.

Ultimately, it won't really help them win anything, as the rest of the roster is still mostly garbage, but they've saved some serious face.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The worst part is Lucic has to be protected in expansion

Unless he chooses to waive or they buy him out before the exp. draft, which isn't pretty but might be worth it depending on who they'd lose.

Carolina paid $3.4M ($6.25M cap hit) for a late 1st round pick in the Marleau deal, so it's not unreasonable.

 

[Siignal]

I honestly think this is good for the Flames, but my logic is a bit of a reach

Lucic has played awfully for Edmonton, but he was there for years. Neal was awful for us, but he was here for 1 year.

I don't know if Lucic's issue was related to the locker room, effort levels, or whatnot, but if he can put up the same numbers as Neal be a physical presence on a lower line, then so be it.

Neal is soft as butter, can barely hit an empty net, and ruined our lineup dynamics.

I think we sent someone who was still trending down and received someone who has been at rock bottom and can only go up. Lucic is being given an opportunity on one of the more promising teams in the league, rather than being the poster boy for failure in an organization that can't put it together.

It's risky for both teams, but I think it ends up being a win-win.

Tear me apart fam

 

[Mr Sakich]

One of the more interesting stories to come out about this is that Edmonton turned down lucic for Ericsson. There was no retention or picks involved, just one for one.

Nhl gm still seem to value toughness despite howls from the analytics guys

Kurt leavins wrote about it this morning. He is probably the most connected oiler beat writer.

 

[Wewillrise]

H

It's weird that it happened in less than a week. He was tied for 16th amongst LWers in scoring at Christmas and a few days later looked like an AHL player.

Best wishes to the guy, he was a big help getting the team to the playoffs in 2017. Maybe the trade will help him out.

He can only produce in short spurts. He will come out blazing in Calgary and be out of gas by game 10.

 

[Siignal]

H

He can only produce in short spurts. He will come out blazing in Calgary and be out of gas by game 10.

If he shows up for 10 playoff games this trade is a win for Calgary

Neal showing up in the playoffs is a matter of them making it in the first place

 

[CupInSIX]

50/50 on whether Neal will bounce back. He had a short offseason last year and he seemed to be in a fog after getting his bell rung by Byfuglien. He also had a nagging hand injury that bothered him in the 2nd half of 2017-2018.

Maybe a long offseason will help him heal up properly.

 

[Baxterman]

One of the more interesting stories to come out about this is that Edmonton turned down lucic for Ericsson. There was no retention or picks involved, just one for one.

Nhl gm still seem to value toughness despite howls from the analytics guys

Kurt leavins wrote about it this morning. He is probably the most connected oiler beat writer.

If true that is crazy. Ericksson is better than Neal, if motivated, so Edmonton definitely should have taken that move but I guess they want to risk it being a one for Neal, it isn't.

Why would Vancouver think of doing that as that is awful for them.

 

[HenrikW]

Imo, it will be close.

Either way, it’s funny because all of last year oilers fans laughed at the Flames for having Neal and how bad he was. And Flames fans/HF in general laughed at Lucic for being bad and useless. Just goes to show.

As a Flames fans, I don’t think it’s as bad as some people say it is for either team. The “what these players used to be” factor is making people think that each will magically be what they were or close to it.

I dont think Oilers fans had any reason to laugh at any other teams players last season. Outside top five forwards, Oilers had the worst Forward scoring depth of any team in the last 40 years. With a 20% margain. Close to half of League average. It was a historic season, in the worst way possible.

Neal has been a 20 goal scorer for a decade.

 

[ottomaddox]

I declare:

Nobody wins this deal.

 

[justafan22]

Cap hit for Calgary
2021/22: 3.57M
2022/23: 4.89M
2023/24: 0.51M
2024/25: 0.51M

A Lucic buyout only makes sense in 2022, when it's a 4.667 cap hit for one year.

Seems hefty, but the Ducks bought out Perry with 2 years left who had similar structure.

 

[justafan22]

The worst part is Lucic has to be protected in expansion

That's not a given.

He can waive his NMC. He doesn't have to, but he can.

 

[Fighter]

Can't believe Calgary got fleeced so badly.