How did Aho get in before O’Rielly?
O’Rielly is better defensively while putting up the same offensive numbers.
Last 3 years Aho 1.0 ppg, 92 goals 206 points +51. votes for Selke too, finishing 12th and 25th.
Last 3 years Oreilly 0.92 ppg, 192 points in 209 games, only 64 goals, +59. Selke finishes 1, 3 & 5
Playoffs is same offensive edge last 3 years:
Aho 35 points in 34 games + 14, 1.03 ppg
Oreilly 37 points in 39 games, -2, 0.95 ppg
If you do last 2 years only, the advantage is even more pronounced for playoffs:
Aho 23 points in 19 games, +11 1.21 PPG
Oreilly 14 points in 13 games, -4 1.08 ppg
Regular season:
Aho 123 points in 124 games, +26, 0.99 ppg, 62 goals
Oreilly 115 points in 127 games, + 37, .091 ppg 36 goals
So Aho has an edge of .08 ppg in the regular season, which is roughly 7 points in 82 games. But also scores a lot more goals (pace of 36 goals vs 25 goals). So 11 more goals, 7 more points - and I'm not sure how good Aho is defensively, but as far as I know he's pretty decent, and even got some Selke votes. Not saying he's as good as Oreilly - but he's not useless. I think this offensive edge to Aho is enough to favor him.
Also - despite Oreilly's very strong conn smythe - overall numbers again tend to favor Aho in playoffs, by an even bigger gap. So he doesn't exactly lose ground there.
Considering Aho is only 24 and likely improving, and Oreilly is now 30 and likely starting to decline soon - I think it's a no brainer to rank Aho ahead going into this season. Clear but not huge gap.
They both should be behind Malkin though