Friedman: Ceci awarded 4.3M AAV in Arbitration

[garce]

Ceci was more of an offensive D when he came in and then played RD behind Karlsson.. Boucher tried to have a shut down pair with Ceci and Phaneuf... he was deployed like that in big minutes for 2 years. His offense suffered and he never quite caught on... but He was playing with one of the slowest skaters in the NHL. As a D , particularly playing against the other team's top lines you will need a relief valve every once in a while.. Ceci would put the puck in Phaneuf's corner and he couldn't get there or wouldn't venture over there for fear that he would not make it back to the net on time.. Chalk up another giveaway., It was a terribly conceived concept for the personnel that the Sens had and Ceci did not fair well in it.

Seen this line of thinking before, blame Dion. Phaneuf was and is a decent second to third pair d with tons of heart. Dumbbell Nonis gave him a terrible contract and saint Brian Murray made a terrible trade for him. Ceci has been God awful when not protected and likely can top out as a 3rd pairing decent offensive type.

 

[garce]

Ceci was more of an offensive D when he came in and then played RD behind Karlsson.. Boucher tried to have a shut down pair with Ceci and Phaneuf... he was deployed like that in big minutes for 2 years. His offense suffered and he never quite caught on... but He was playing with one of the slowest skaters in the NHL. As a D , particularly playing against the other team's top lines you will need a relief valve every once in a while.. Ceci would put the puck in Phaneuf's corner and he couldn't get there or wouldn't venture over there for fear that he would not make it back to the net on time.. Chalk up another giveaway., It was a terribly conceived concept for the personnel that the Sens had and Ceci did not fair well in it.

Seen this line of thinking before, blame Dion. Phaneuf was and is a decent second to third pair d with tons of heart. Dumbbell Nonis gave him a terrible contract and saint Brian Murray made a terrible trade for him. Ceci has been God awful when not protected and likely can top out as a 3rd pairinf

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Seen this line of thinking before, blame Dion. Phaneuf was and is a decent second to third pair d with tons of heart. Dumbbell Nonis gave him a terrible contract and saint Brian Murray made a terrible trade for him. Ceci has been God awful when not protected and likely can top out as a 3rd pairinf

Good extrapolation .. but just missed the mark.. Point was he was miss cast and really so was Phaneuf.. not blaming Phaneuf.. describing how it was.. He should not be cast as a shut down D.. was the point... If there are any words here that even when put together with some others you don't quite get .. please don't be shy

 

[garce]

Cody got exposed because he played with slow Dion what did I miss?

 

[justafan22]

Cap friendly says he's signed it, but no announcement from the team yet

 

[ottawah]

Whether people like it or not, he's a solid 2nd pairing D man and getting paid like one.


Offense:

His offensive numbers are solid 2nd pairing, in the 4 seasons he has been a full time player he is 38th in points for a RHD despite getting minimal PP time. Even last year he was 42nd. Up to 62nd would be the rough cut off for teams 2nd pairing D man. In 2016 he put up close to #1 D numbers (20th overall) when he was sheltered more and did not play the role he has the last two years, but less than 20 minutes and no PP time. In fact ESP/60 he was 12th for RHD in the league. So yes he has offense, he just does not produce top 15 numbers that some posters seemed to believe defines a second pairing D man.

Advanced stats:

Sure his corsi sucks, but its simply a matter of deployment. When you look at the number of minutes he is asked to play in the deployment pattern he gets, its extremely rare that a D man does this (1900+ minutes, > 65%D zone starts). In fact since the lockout this has only been done 5 times (and only 2 other times in the past 10 years) and Cecis corsi number favor quite comparably to those players.

Andy Greene (2015), 22 points , 40 corsi.
Eric Brewer (2011), 16 points , 41 corsi
Kim Johnsson (2008) 27 points (but 10 PP), 43 corsi
Barret Jackman (2008) 16 points , 42 corsi
Cody Ceci (2018), 19 points, 41 corsi.

So his advanced stats suck. No surprise. No D man has ever had great advanced stats in that type of deployment.

Defense:

While it may leave some to be desired for his deployment it is certainly adequate. He has been a far better player defending than much of what Ottawa has had for years down the right hand side. But overall he faced the worst deployment in the league on a terrible team, so you have to expect a large number of highlight defensive gaffs. It happens to all players.



And he's a RHD, hardest position to fill at the moment in hockey. So if people think any team would walk away from 4.3M for that, shake your heads. Does not mean he is a star, just means he is a sold second pairing D man who can be leaned on like few D can, and he is getting paid like one.

 

[Melkor]

His second name means "boobs" in Russian so I guess that was the deciding factor in a ultimate decision to give him such a massive amount of money.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The one year term is really interesting.

A 2 year term makes more sense if the Senators see Ceci as part of their long term plan, because his qualifying offer will be 4.3M next year. Meaning there's no real benefit in terms of salary to not locking Ceci in at 2 years because if the Senators qualify him, he potentially makes more than 4.3M if they go to arbitration again.

That tells me, the Sens want to explore trading Ceci to someone who'll be willing to sign him long term at the earliest mid season, at the latest next off season. Having Ceci on a 1 year deal (then RFA) instead of 2 makes him a much more marketable trade piece because a team can trade with an extension in place, where as on a two year deal they'd have to wait until July 1st 2019 to officially sign an extension. It also means if Ceci is not living up to this contract, at the deadline he could be traded as a rental. Even know the return would not be very good with Ceci as a rental, a team is more likely to take Ceci for the prorated remainder of 4.3M and then let him go than they'd be to take him with an extra year on his deal if he isn't living up to his cap hit.

Yes, the Senators could try to sign him for less than 4.3M next season without qualifying him, but if he doesn't agree, he can then become a UFA and walk.

 

[93LEAFS]

Whether people like it or not, he's a solid 2nd pairing D man and getting paid like one.


Offense:

His offensive numbers are solid 2nd pairing, in the 4 seasons he has been a full time player he is 38th in points for a RHD despite getting minimal PP time. Even last year he was 42nd. Up to 62nd would be the rough cut off for teams 2nd pairing D man. In 2016 he put up close to #1 D numbers (20th overall) when he was sheltered more and did not play the role he has the last two years, but less than 20 minutes and no PP time. In fact ESP/60 he was 12th for RHD in the league. So yes he has offense, he just does not produce top 15 numbers that some posters seemed to believe defines a second pairing D man.

Advanced stats:

Sure his corsi sucks, but its simply a matter of deployment. When you look at the number of minutes he is asked to play in the deployment pattern he gets, its extremely rare that a D man does this (1900+ minutes, > 65%D zone starts). In fact since the lockout this has only been done 5 times (and only 2 other times in the past 10 years) and Cecis corsi number favor quite comparably to those players.

Andy Greene (2015), 22 points , 40 corsi.
Eric Brewer (2011), 16 points , 41 corsi
Kim Johnsson (2008) 27 points (but 10 PP), 43 corsi
Barret Jackman (2008) 16 points , 42 corsi
Cody Ceci (2018), 19 points, 41 corsi.

So his advanced stats suck. No surprise. No D man has ever had great advanced stats in that type of deployment.

Defense:

While it may leave some to be desired for his deployment it is certainly adequate. He has been a far better player defending than much of what Ottawa has had for years down the right hand side. But overall he faced the worst deployment in the league on a terrible team, so you have to expect a large number of highlight defensive gaffs. It happens to all players.



And he's a RHD, hardest position to fill at the moment in hockey. So if people think any team would walk away from 4.3M for that, shake your heads. Does not mean he is a star, just means he is a sold second pairing D man who can be leaned on like few D can, and he is getting paid like one.

Why are you using all-situations corsi? No one uses that for anything, and you also only used the raw numbers. How about we make the criteria players who played over 65 games, starting less than 43.5% in offensive zone start ratio (Ceci was 42.4), and since I can't use total minutes I'll use 18.5 minutes a game played at 5v5 (Ceci played 19.2). Other defenceman have been able to be positives for their team or tread water with that usage. Brodie somehow excelled one year like that, and was a positive relative to his team. McDongah and Pietrangelo held the fort down. Bouwmeester wasn't great, and Kim Johnsson got slaughtered. Out of these examples, Ceci had the worst raw possession numbers, and had the worst relative to teammates outside of Johnsson who he tied in CF rel and was better in FF% rel.

Player Advanced Stats Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

You make the criteria slightly less stringent by lowering the minimum 5v5 minutes per game to 18, and then the zone starts to less than 44%, you get this, where quite a few more guys were able to excel or atleast not end up with as bad raw possession or relative possession numbers as Ceci.

Player Advanced Stats Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[justafan22]

As I said before, even if a player is terrible in advanced stats, team place an emphasis on staying healthy and eating minutes.

 

[Liferleafer]

His second name means "boobs" in Russian so I guess that was the deciding factor in a ultimate decision to give him such a massive amount of money.

Here's hoping he signs in the KHL....at least Russians will have the pleasure of hearing announcers call him Cody Boobs.

 

[ottawah]

Why are you using all-situations corsi?

To show how he was deployed. It was not a measure of anything specific only to show that he is consistently on the ice in defensive only positions and not offensive positions, and that alone easily explain his numbers on points and corsi. It shows just how much he is used to shelter the other RHD on the Sens from tough assignments and workload. Exactly what you ask for in a defensive minded D.