CBJ trade assets

[koteka]

I tried to put the assets that could be used in a trade in tiers. If we are discussing trades, how would other teams value the CBJ’s assets? Not how we value them.


Bjork - leading scorer, 26, 5 x $5.4 million
Jones - not top 5 D, but next group, 26, 1 x $5.4 million then UFA
Werenski - good young scoring D, 23, 1 x $5 million then RFA

————— big gap

2021 first - likely around 5OA
Laine - RFA, teams will try to get him cheap

————— big gap

Marchenko - promising
Chinakhov - promising
Gavrikov - solid D, 2 x $2.8
Boone Jenner - grit, 1 x $3.75 million, guy will traded at deadline for a late 1st

————— small gap, maybe no gap

Texier - promising, but not established yet
Foudy - promising but not established yet
2022 first - probably a decent pick in a decent draft
2023 first - probably a decent pick in a decent draft

————— small to medium gap

Tampa 2021 first
Toronto 2021 first

————— big gap

2022 second
Elvis - 1 x $4 million then UFA
Robinson
Bemstrom
Voronkov

Hard to rate, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but probably less than the CBJ fans think:

Domi - inconsistent, UFA in one year
Cam - out years of his contract hurt his value
Roslovic - if he has a good season he will get paid
Tarasov - promising goalies aren’t worth much

Might get a mid round pick or reclamation project:

Korpi - good backup goalies aren’t worth a whole lot in the trade market

Could get exposed and not even picked by Seattle:

Nyquist
Kukan
Stenlund

Click to read more...

 

[koteka]

I think we have 5 really good assets. Bjork, Jones, Werenski, Laine, and our likely 5OA pick. Jones extended has more value than Jones for one year, obviously. Bjork has a good contract and he will be 30 in the last year - that contract will age very well. Laine’s value is probably all over the place, but I am not trading him based in last season no matter what people say on the HF trade board (see Josh Anderson).

Then we have another 10 assets - 3 Russians, 4 future first round picks, Tex, Foudy, and Jenner - that have pretty good value.

Some people like Roslovic and Domi are really hard to value, but they do have good value.

Elvis is a UFA in a year and goalies usually don’t bring much. He is probably worth more to us than other teams.

 

[VT]

I tried to put the assets that could be used in a trade in tiers. If we are discussing trades, how would other teams value the CBJ’s assets? Not how we value them.


Bjork - leading scorer, 26, 5 x $5.4 million
Jones - not top 5 D, but next group, 26, 1 x $5.4 million then UFA
Werenski - good young scoring D, 23, 1 x $5 million then RFA

————— big gap

2021 first - likely around 5OA
Laine - RFA, teams will try to get him cheap

————— big gap

Marchenko - promising
Chinakhov - promising
Gavrikov - solid D, 2 x $2.8
Boone Jenner - grit, 1 x $3.75 million, guy will traded at deadline for a late 1st

————— small gap, maybe no gap

Texier - promising, but not established yet
Foudy - promising but not established yet
2022 first - probably a decent pick in a decent draft
2023 first - probably a decent pick in a decent draft

————— small to medium gap

Tampa 2021 first
Toronto 2021 first

————— big gap

2022 second
Elvis - 1 x $4 million then UFA
Robinson
Bemstrom
Voronkov

Hard to rate, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but probably less than the CBJ fans think:

Domi - inconsistent, UFA in one year
Cam - out years of his contract hurt his value
Roslovic - if he has a good season he will get paid
Tarasov - promising goalies aren’t worth much

Might get a mid round pick or reclamation project:

Korpi - good backup goalies aren’t worth a whole lot in the trade market

Could get exposed and not even picked by Seattle:

Nyquist
Kukan
Stenlund

Voronkov has minumum as value as Marchenko/Chinakhov, maybe even better. Bemstrom and Texier are underrated.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I think there are a lot of players with decent value, and a lot of flexibility. I look at what Foligno and Savard returned and some of the UFAs we have coming up next year. I think if we are sellers at next year’s deadline we would return quite a bit more in picks than we got this year. As for immediate moves, I wouldn’t be surprised if any player except Jones got moved.

 

[koteka]

Voronkov has minumum as value as Marchenko/Chinakhov, maybe even better. Bemstrom and Texier are underrated.

I think the only people who feel this way are CBJ fans.

Voronkov was a 4th round pick who has looked really good. But he wouldn’t return much now. Maybe a 2nd. Nobody is thinking “I’ll trade my late first for the Russian kid averaging 1/3 point per game in the KHL. The hope is that in a couple of years he’ll be a middle 6 NHLer. Marchenko and Chinakhov have higher value. That does not mean they’ll be better players.

Bemstrom and Texier are from a less than stellar draft year. They may be having more success than many of their peers, but is that because they are good hockey players or their class was pretty bad? The both will be 22 before next season starts. They are forwards. It is time for them to show what they are. Texier already has had back issues. Bemstrom seems very one dimensional. I really don’t think they have the value of Foudy, Marchenko, and Chinakhov who are all younger and all were relatively the same or higher draft picks.

If we are going to talk about rebuild or reload, it is time to stop talking about the guys we hope will develop and start looking at them for what they are.

 

[VT]

I think the only people who feel this way are CBJ fans.

Voronkov was a 4th round pick who has looked really good. But he wouldn’t return much now. Maybe a 2nd. Nobody is thinking “I’ll trade my late first for the Russian kid averaging 1/3 point per game in the KHL. The hope is that in a couple of years he’ll be a middle 6 NHLer. Marchenko and Chinakhov have higher value. That does not mean they’ll be better players.

Bemstrom and Texier are from a less than stellar draft year. They may be having more success than many of their peers, but is that because they are good hockey players or their class was pretty bad? The both will be 22 before next season starts. They are forwards. It is time for them to show what they are. Texier already has had back issues. Bemstrom seems very one dimensional. I really don’t think they have the value of Foudy, Marchenko, and Chinakhov who are all younger and all were relatively the same or higher draft picks.

If we are going to talk about rebuild or reload, it is time to stop talking about the guys we hope will develop and start looking at them for what they are.

I saw Marchenko, Chinakhov and Voronkov in KHL, not only in regular season. Voronkov was great in PO. The best player in Ak Bars in the serie against Avangard Omsk the foremr winner Gagarin Cup. He`s a variable player can be the center, the winger, play in PP, PK.
Texier and especially Bemstron didn`t so many minutes. IMHO they`ll be good players.
Foudy, Voronkov and Marchenko are one year younger than Texier and Bemstrom. And Bemmer played very good in SHL what is no whorse AHL. Btw Bemmer can learn be on only one dimensional

P.S. Vasilevsky was draftet in the draft where 1. Yakupov 3. Galchenyuk.

 

[majormajor]

My re-ordering, with my changes in italics.
@koteka


Bjork - leading scorer, 26, 5 x $5.4 million
Jones - not top 5 D, but next group, 26, 1 x $5.4 million then UFA
Werenski - good young scoring D, 23, 1 x $5 million then RFA

————— big gap

2021 first - likely around 5OA

--------there's another big gap here. Perhaps Laine is equivalent to 8-12th OA, but the Laine market is super thin.

Laine - RFA, teams will try to get him cheap

————— gap
These are all worth mid-1sts.

Gavrikov - solid D, 2 x $2.8 established top 4D at this point, always a big market.

Roslovic - if he has a good season he will get paid. I think plenty of teams would love to have a 2C with his offensive tools. His stock just doubled.

Texier - promising, but not established yet. I think pro scouts drool over this sort of raw talent. He'd fetch at least a mid-first.

2022 first - probably a decent pick in a decent draft. It will be hard for the Jackets to get clear of 15th in that draft, given one look at the Metro, maybe top ten pick.

-------------- small gap here

Marchenko - promising
Chinakhov - promising
( no gap )
Foudy - promising but not established yet
2023 first - probably a decent pick in a decent draft

————— small to medium gap

Tampa 2021 first
Toronto 2021 first
Boone Jenner - grit, 1 x $3.75 million, guy will traded at deadline for a late 1st. But the market might be worse before then, he's not good contract value.

Elvis - 1 x $4 million then UFA. I know the market but I think Elvis would be highly sought after by teams that can extend him.

Peeke is right about here, potential 2nd pair RHD

————— big gap

2022 second
Robinson
Bemstrom
Voronkov

These are thinner situational markets but probably same tier as 2nd rounder:
Domi - inconsistent, UFA in one year
Nyquist - Half the term compared to Cam, could be needed if a team strikes out in UFA.


Hard to rate, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but probably less than the CBJ fans think:

Tarasov - promising goalies aren’t worth much

Might get a mid round pick or reclamation project:

Korpi - good backup goalies aren’t worth a whole lot in the trade market
Kukan
Stenlund

Untouchable

Cam - out years of his contract hurt his value

 

[koteka]

Peeke is right about here, potential 2nd pair RHD

Dang. You always miss someone. I forgot Peeke. I was so high on Peeke until this season. I had him penciled in a 2RD for years to come. Now I am hoping he’ll be a good 3RD who can play up if needed. He still has 2D potential. I am just thinking it is less likely than it appeared last year. Maybe I was too high on him last season. I’d put him in Robinson/Bemstrom range, partially because playing RD adds a little to his value.

If we draft 5th, and we don’t get Beniers there, I really hope Clarke is still there. Right D could flip from what looked like our deepest position to weaker than center.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

S Tier

Bjorkstrand - Top line complete winger who does everything you need. Improving and young. Long term contract at fair value

Jones - Top pairing defenseman. Potentially one of the best in the league when playing well. Contract is cheap right now but pending UFA.

Werenski - Top pairing offensive D with some holes in his game but nothing his strengths don't cover up. RFA.

A tier

Laine - Elite potential. Game breaking shot. Lots of holes in his game but has a mindset and skillset of improving. Teams will try to get him cheap and the Jackets can't sell him for anything less than fair value. RFA and a gamble.

CBJ 1st - top 5 pick potentially top 3. high end prospect.

B Tier

Roslovic - teams would see how he played here and maybe be interested in going after him. Jackets have no reason to deal him though, unless in a package for a better center.

Chikahov/Marchenko/Foudy/Voronkov - I lumped all these guys together because they're our top prospects. They'd likely be the 2nd or third best prospects on half of the teams in the league but still some of these guys have high end potential/very good chances of making the NHL in some capacity.

Jenner - character guy, gritty guy. A player other teams would covet hard in the event of a CBJ rebuild.

Gavrikov - solid 2nd pairing guy on a good contract and young.

Tampa/Toronto 1sts - nice add on pieces even in a wild card draft.

C Tier

Texier/Bemstrom/Peeke - flailing prospects with some injury history. They have high end potential but at this point they'd be sweeteners for teams. Almost put them in B tier.

Korpisalo/Merzlikins - goalies don't go for much, even if a team wants one.

Domi - selling low but has 2nd line upside. Given his contract is up soon he could have lots of interest from contenders in cap trouble.

Robinson - good energy guy with maybe potential for more. intriguing player but not a main piece of any trade.

CBJ 2nd/3rd round picks - nice add ons to any deals but won't move any needles.

Kukan - 3rd pairing guy with some potential to play higher if needed. but has settled into that role and hasn't played well enough to consider him higher.

D tier

Carlsson - younger defenseman with 1st round pedigree but little production. Someone would likely sell a low pick for him if we wanted to move him

Nyquist/Atkinson - older guys with bigger contracts. Nyquist probably has more potential to get a return but given he missed a whole season it could impact his potential going forward. Jackets would have to bite the bullet hard for any team to give Atkinson a look.

 

[majormajor]

I tend to rate Texier higher than others. That's one thing I've learned with this fun exercise.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I tend to rate Texier higher than others. That's one thing I've learned with this fun exercise.

i think he has second line upside but 10 points and 1 goal in the last 40 games or whatever it was is pretty inexcusable. Plus he has an injury history. He’s got the frame and talent makeup of a top 6 forward but until the results come he’s just a guy.

 

[EspenK]

When reading through these responses the thing that comes across to me is that Jarmo's job to re-tool this team is extremely difficult if not impossible. To get an impact player he has to trade one of the top tier guys which immediately creates a big hole left by the traded player. With only Bjorkstrand offering long term team control the value of Jones & Zach is diminished.

Packaging any of the remaining assets is not likely to produce an impact player.

Free agency seems to be the most likely route to add guys who can help but none will make the Jackets strong Cup contenders imo.

Jones refuses/delays a decision on an extension then its rebuild by default or suffer the beginning of the next 20 years.

 

[koteka]

When reading through these responses the thing that comes across to me is that Jarmo's job to re-tool this team is extremely difficult if not impossible. To get an impact player he has to trade one of the top tier guys which immediately creates a big hole left by the traded player. With only Bjorkstrand offering long term team control the value of Jones & Zach is diminished.

Packaging any of the remaining assets is not likely to produce an impact player.

Free agency seems to be the most likely route to add guys who can help but none will make the Jackets strong Cup contenders imo.

Jones refuses/delays a decision on an extension then its rebuild by default or suffer the beginning of the next 20 years.

The good news is the lack of long term contracts means we are in the position for a quicker rebuild than a team like Nashville if they decide they need a rebuild in a couple of years.

I think there is a path for a retool, but it has to go perfect. Like we sign Danault and he plays well and Roslovic and Tex develop and Jones and Werenski resign and we land a great pick in the top 5 of the draft this year. But there is a path for a retool that could fail and set this team back. Like we sign Danault and the contract looks really bad almost immediately. Unfortunately when you go through free agency, a lot of times you get “oh, that is a bad contract” scenario.

Jones and Werenski are young enough that they could go through the rebuild, but would they want to? 2022 has some promising centers and 2023 has some (what appear to be) amazing players. with Bedard and Mitchkov leading the way.

Standing pat and sucking for two years could yield us a trio like Brandt Clarke, Juraj Slafkovsky (or pick another top 2022 forward) and Bedard or Mitchkov as the core of the franchise. Plus two more first rounders in the upcoming draft and maybe a late first rounder in 2022 if we make some deadline trade next year. Pair those guys with Tex and Roslovic and Gavrikov and Foudy and Peek and maybe a resigned Werenski and a haul of prospects from trading Jones plus the better of Elvis / Tarasov and you have a very promising team in 2024-2025 looking like a Cup threat for the future. And the worst contract is aging veteran and good mentor Cam at less than $6 million/ year or maybe a slight overpay on Werenski which we can handle.

 

[stevo61]

I wonder if the whole covid thing hit some players pretty hard. Namely Tex. He went from a high energy, all over the ice guy to someone who looked drained real quick. Could have been his own conditioning failure in the offseason and maybe didnt even have covid but seeing what it did to Vancouver after that break makes a person a little nervous to think about dealing some of the young talented players after this year.
Unless its for Jack Eichel. If you have a chance to get Jack Eichel then you get Jack Eichel

 

[stevo61]

The good news is the lack of long term contracts means we are in the position for a quicker rebuild than a team like Nashville if they decide they need a rebuild in a couple of years.

I think there is a path for a retool, but it has to go perfect. Like we sign Danault and he plays well and Roslovic and Tex develop and Jones and Werenski resign and we land a great pick in the top 5 of the draft this year. But there is a path for a retool that could fail and set this team back. Like we sign Danault and the contract looks really bad almost immediately. Unfortunately when you go through free agency, a lot of times you get “oh, that is a bad contract” scenario.

Jones and Werenski are young enough that they could go through the rebuild, but would they want to? 2022 has some promising centers and 2023 has some (what appear to be) amazing players. with Bedard and Mitchkov leading the way.

Standing pat and sucking for two years could yield us a trio like Brandt Clarke, Juraj Slafkovsky (or pick another top 2022 forward) and Bedard or Mitchkov as the core of the franchise. Plus two more first rounders in the upcoming draft and maybe a late first rounder in 2022 if we make some deadline trade next year. Pair those guys with Tex and Roslovic and Gavrikov and Foudy and Peek and maybe a resigned Werenski and a haul of prospects from trading Jones plus the better of Elvis / Tarasov and you have a very promising team in 2024-2025 looking like a Cup threat for the future. And the worst contract is aging veteran and good mentor Cam at less than $6 million/ year or maybe a slight overpay on Werenski which we can handle.

If we could luck into 1 of Wright, Bedard or Michkov in the next couple years it would be franchise changing

 

[rotsbu]

Dang. You always miss someone. I forgot Peeke. I was so high on Peeke until this season. I had him penciled in a 2RD for years to come. Now I am hoping he’ll be a good 3RD who can play up if needed. He still has 2D potential. I am just thinking it is less likely than it appeared last year. Maybe I was too high on him last season. I’d put him in Robinson/Bemstrom range, partially because playing RD adds a little to his value.

If we draft 5th, and we don’t get Beniers there, I really hope Clarke is still there. Right D could flip from what looked like our deepest position to weaker than center.

Peeke played 18 games between the NHL and AHL this year!! Am I naïve in discounting this season entirely when evaluating this future?

 

[majormajor]

Peeke played 18 games between the NHL and AHL this year!! Am I naïve in discounting this season entirely when evaluating this future?

By the same token he might have permanently lost a bit of his potential because he played so little in a key development year.

He's worse now than he was a year ago. I'm sure he'll bounce back next year but it's not clear whether he'll end up as a second pair guy or more of a bottom pair option. All the physical tools are still there but the decision making is key for D-men and that didn't look good this year.

By the way, he lost a bit of value but I'd still value him at around a late 1st. A guy with a 50% shot of becoming a 2nd pair RHD has value. That's a tough vacancy to fill.

 

[LoneFunyan]

When reading through these responses the thing that comes across to me is that Jarmo's job to re-tool this team is extremely difficult if not impossible. To get an impact player he has to trade one of the top tier guys which immediately creates a big hole left by the traded player. With only Bjorkstrand offering long term team control the value of Jones & Zach is diminished.

Packaging any of the remaining assets is not likely to produce an impact player.

Exactly. We don't have the quality of non-roster assets to acquire difference-making roster players. I don't see any way we're not in a rebuild.

There's a hope that "cap strapped" teams will have to sell off fancy assets for pennies on the dollar, but it seems like we hear that every off-season and somehow, some way, teams always manage to keep their best players.

 

[majormajor]

Exactly. We don't have the quality of non-roster assets to acquire difference-making roster players. I don't see any way we're not in a rebuild.

I don't think that's literally true.

The 5th OA could return a really good player. That more than gets you a Reinhart, Hertl, or Miller.

It doesn't get you an Eichel, but if the Jackets wanted to put 4 1sts a top prospect and some players into a package to get him they could get him. The question is more whether that is a good trade for us.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I don't think that's literally true.

The 5th OA could return a really good player. That more than gets you a Reinhart, Hertl, or Miller.

It doesn't get you an Eichel, but if the Jackets wanted to put 4 1sts a top prospect and some players into a package to get him they could get him. The question is more whether that is a good trade for us.

Do you send stupid amounts of futures for Jack Eichel if it gets Jones and Werenski’s names on a contract as well? I think I do it. Our prospect pool would suffer for it for a fairly long time, but that instantly blows open your window again. We’d have to get creative and entice college/European FA’s to play here to bolster our prospect base and hit on mid to later round picks.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Exactly. We don't have the quality of non-roster assets to acquire difference-making roster players. I don't see any way we're not in a rebuild.

There's a hope that "cap strapped" teams will have to sell off fancy assets for pennies on the dollar, but it seems like we hear that every off-season and somehow, some way, teams always manage to keep their best players.

How is that any different than the last 20 years though?
IMO us as fans (probably like every other team) overvalue what we have. I don't think we've every had a loaded roster for a full season (now the deadline deal for Duchene certainly gave us more talent than ever). Seems like most years we have one really good winger (Sanderson, Whitney, Nash, Panarin, PLD) and recently a good blue line and goaltending.

Now I do think if we're going to acquire a true 1C it has to be via trade to a team against the cap or just wanting to rid itself of a long contract. In that type of situation the other team would likely want futures (picks, prospects or guys like Tex who are still inexpensive with upside).

Edit - Now I do think our farm system is probably in as bad as shape as it has ever been, but honestly I think when the system was loaded it was because of depth/quantity more so than super elite prospects.

 

[majormajor]

Do you send stupid amounts of futures for Jack Eichel if it gets Jones and Werenski’s names on a contract as well? I think I do it. Our prospect pool would suffer for it for a fairly long time, but that instantly blows open your window again. We’d have to get creative and entice college/European FA’s to play here to bolster our prospect base and hit on mid to later round picks.

- If it gets Werenski and Jones on board.
- If Eichel gets back to health.

Then yes I agree it would be worth it. I really don't know one way or the other about Eichel's neck though.

 

[Jan]

I wonder if the whole covid thing hit some players pretty hard. Namely Tex. He went from a high energy, all over the ice guy to someone who looked drained real quick. Could have been his own conditioning failure in the offseason and maybe didnt even have covid but seeing what it did to Vancouver after that break makes a person a little nervous to think about dealing some of the young talented players after this year.
Unless its for Jack Eichel. If you have a chance to get Jack Eichel then you get Jack Eichel

Now I do not know if Tex had COVID at all.

I had...
I can tell that it have a long time negative effect on your lung system, it is now a year ago I was ill. Still not 100%
another long term effect, is less energy, but that could in the end be like to your reduced lung capacity.

 

[majormajor]

Now I do not know if Tex had COVID at all.

I had...
I can tell that it have a long time negative effect on your lung system, it is now a year ago I was ill. Still not 100%
another long term effect, is less energy, but that could in the end be like to your reduced lung capacity.

We've seen Texier's energy go from incredibly high for weeks at a time to flat this year, with no illness/injury break in between. Doesn't seem like long covid.

He got worn out and lost his confidence. I don't know exactly why but there are some factors that could have done him in. He just put a lot of muscle onto his frame in the last couple years, came off a bad stress fracture in his back last year, directly into the pandemic, where he spent most of his time in Grenoble not playing because others in his family were sick. He also has a jerky skating motion, a lot of fast twitch power, which is great, but there's something inefficient about his stride and it looks like he might still be compensating for some weakness in his core. That will tire you out in a hurry.

 

[LoneFunyan]

Do you send stupid amounts of futures for Jack Eichel if it gets Jones and Werenski’s names on a contract as well? I think I do it. Our prospect pool would suffer for it for a fairly long time, but that instantly blows open your window again. We’d have to get creative and entice college/European FA’s to play here to bolster our prospect base and hit on mid to later round picks.

I think where we're at loggerheads is that we have different opinions on how good the team is / how many players away we are. I think we are what we saw this year - which is a pretty bad team. I know there are craptons of factors that made this a weird year, but I just look at the roster and very little of it inspires confidence that we're better than what we showed. Based on you thinking that Eichel would re-open our Cup window, you are probably in the opposite camp.

That difference in vision means completely different outlooks on how you fix things and I don't think the perspectives can be squared against each other. Which is to say: we'll have to agree to disagree and see how things play out.