Here we go. My long overdue (sorry, got involved with work, the election, got COVID, other stuff) top 20 prospects POST draft is here.
Here was my list posted pre draft. If you want to read those explanations on why people are where they are, open that and read up! I'll be doing that here too, but I'll be adding my "potential riser" that I've started doing.
Here was the list pre-draft:
1. Liam Foudy
2. Emil Bemstrom
3. Kirill Marchenko
4. Andrew Peeke
5. Daniil Tarasov
6. Dmitri Voronkov
7. Kevin Stenlund
8. Veini Vehvilainen
9. Eric Hjorth
10. Gabriel Carlsson
11. Trey Fix-Wolansky
12. Mattis Kivlenieks
13. Kole Sherwood
14. Tim Berni
15. Markus Karlberg
16. Ryan MacInnis
17. Peter Thome
18. Tyler Angle
19. Kale Howarth
20. Robbie Stucker
As always, I use the same criteria. How good they are now, how good they can be, and the likelihood they get there. These are all, of course, in my opinion.
*Keep in mind my criteria to be a prospect might be different than others. My criteria is you are considered a prospect if you have less than 82 games played in the NHL as a skater, a full season, or 30 starts as a goalie. Also anyone at or over the age of 25 will either be considered graduated or not a true prospect anymore.*
1. Emil Bemstrom
2. Liam Foudy
3. Yegor Chinakhov
4. Kirill Marchenko
5. Andrew Peeke
6. Dmitri Voronkov
7. Daniil Tarasov
8. Veini Vehvilainen
9. Kevin Stenlund
10. Mikael Pyyhtia
11. Samuel Knazko
12. Eric Hjorth
13. Gabriel Carlsson
14. Trey Fix-Wolansky
15. Samuel Johannesson
16. Matiss Kivlenieks
17. Ole Julian Bjorkvik Holm
18. Kole Sherwood
19. Tim Berni
20. Ryan MacInnis
In: Chinakhov, Pyyhtia, Knazko, Johannesson, Bjorkvik-Holm
Out: Karlberg, Thome, Angle, Howarth, Stucker
Biggest Potential Riser: Knazko
As I explained in my pre-draft post where Foudy BARELY edged out Bemstrom, it is now reversed. Bemstrom is my new top dog at #1 in our draft boards...just barely. His play in the SHL during this down time is the reason why. He has re-sparked his offensive upside and is still playing Torts-brand hockey. Will it net results over in the US? Who knows. I think he has high end upside offensively (25-30 goals) while potential to grow more in his own end. Foudy meanwhile is still the safer pick to be an effective NHL player. Had he been able to play at all during this pandemic, maybe he could have held onto his spot as #1. It's not really his fault that he lost it, as I recall his contributions to the team in the playoff run as well as his season as a whole last year. It really was a true toss up, with recency bias tilting ever so slightly to Bemstrom.
3-6 are really hard to judge as you can make arguments for each player to be at the top of this group. I think the safest bet out of all these players is Andrew Peeke, who I think will be a nice 2nd pairing defenseman when he fills out and is ready. He's a good skater, sound both ways, and has room to grow. Marchenko has the highest upside, but I am worried about his skating stride and if he will be able to make the transition to NHL hockey, especially defensively. Chinakhov seems like a massive boom/bust pick, and his play has seemed to teeter both ways at times this year. Starting off hot, getting drafted, and then cooling off. He has high end upside as well, but not the same as Marchenko. Voronkov has the smallest upside of all of them, but he also has a relatively high chance of reaching that upside if he's interested in coming over. I think he's got 3rd liner written all over him.
Tarasov drops a spot in this due to his lack of playing time. I still believe in his upside, and in his likelihood to get there, but he's got to prove it. When he plays, he's usually fine, but he's got to get minutes. Vehvilainen is a solid goalie prospect in his own right, but Tarasov clearly has the higher end potential of the two. But both could be very good NHL goalies.
Going to skip over Stenlund a bit. He's fine, a tweener player with potential to carve out a 4th line scoring role, but not much better than that.
Pyythia and Knazko were hard to research on. Both have very high end upsides in their game, I slightly preferred Pyythia's more, but I am also more concerned with his game than Knazko's. I see a lot of Wennberg in Pyythia, with the unwillingness to take shots and the reliable playmaking ability. I think what Wennberg was to us in his last two/three years might be near Pyythia's ceiling, but depending how he rounds out his game it could be more than that. Knazko I think has second pairing upside. Has a very good skating stride and seems to be creative with moving the puck. I prefer both player to Hjorth, who has a lower upside and lower chance of hitting it than Knazo, and Carlsson, who has a lower upside but higher end chance of hitting it. I will be interested to watch their developments.
I nearly picked Johannesson over Knazko for biggest riser. I think he's got something to his game. Just need to watch him play more and see if its just new toy hype or if its genuine belief out of him. But for now, I place him below likely career AHLers in Hjorth, Carlsson, and TFW with the caveat that I do like what I see.
Our top 10 prospects are either really safe reliable contributors (Foudy, Peeke, Voronkov), high end boom or bust potential guys (Chinakhov, Marchenko, Vehvilainen) or somewhere in between (Bemstrom, Tarasov). Everyone after that is a roll of the dice.
I think the health of our prospect pool is relatively decent considering we have traded two first round picks in the last few years, a boatload of 2nd/3rd rounders as well as other picks, trades, and had a ton of young/early graduates. However, it is clearly still not a "top" prospect pool either. It's probably in the lower-middle tier of pools. But considering the lack of picks it could be a lot worse.
