CBJ Board Summer 2019 Prospect Rankings: #19/20
- Thread starter Double-Shift Lasse
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So I was thinking about next year's list, given how much of a drop off there is after the top 10-12.
Aging out, regardless of time spent in the NHL: Robinson and Scott
Likely graduating due to time in the NHL: Texier
Probably graduating due to time in the NHL: Gavrikov
Injuries or surprise camps could force majority of season in NHL: Bemstrom, Vehvilainen, Foudy, Peeke
I mean, realistically 4 guys will be out of the prospect pool, 3 probably from the top 12 and likely the top 2. The team only has 5 picks as of now in the 2020 draft - and none in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Obviously a lot can happen, but next summer we might be looking at two top goalie prospects, Foudy/Bemstrom/TFW, Peeke….and then that's maybe where the drop off starts.
Aging out, regardless of time spent in the NHL: Robinson and Scott
Likely graduating due to time in the NHL: Texier
Probably graduating due to time in the NHL: Gavrikov
Injuries or surprise camps could force majority of season in NHL: Bemstrom, Vehvilainen, Foudy, Peeke
I mean, realistically 4 guys will be out of the prospect pool, 3 probably from the top 12 and likely the top 2. The team only has 5 picks as of now in the 2020 draft - and none in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Obviously a lot can happen, but next summer we might be looking at two top goalie prospects, Foudy/Bemstrom/TFW, Peeke….and then that's maybe where the drop off starts.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
I'm not dismissing what you're saying, because I believe your numbers assessment is accurate, and it's interesting to add to the discussion at this point in our polling, but to add a little bit of context...
Last year Bemstrom was 14 in this same exercise. I'm sure someone will have an obvious explanation for this, but nonetheless.
Also, given where your dropoff (I tend to agree) is, there's only 2-3 gone from above it. One could be replaced with a 2020 first rounder. Another could be replaced if someone pulls a Bemstrom. I think there's some legit concern, though, about Marchenko.
I'm going to add that, while the "team is young" thing has been around for what seems like a long while now, it's still true. The legit counter that the pool lacks likely top-end production is a work in progress this season courtesy Tex and maybe Bemstrom. Even still, lack of top-end skill isn't a depth thing anyway, at least not in and of itself. Even given the mass exodus, the team is replacing 3 guys from last year's opening night squad. And per CapFriendly, there's only one UFA after this coming season, and that's Hannikainen. It's the following year there's a big UFA class to replace, but many of us are non-plussed about the guys who are up that season - Nick, Dubi and Nash at forward, and Murray, Savard and Clendening at D.
Yes, the pool could break badly, and suffer as a result of last season's trade deadline. But I think there are reasons to believe/hope/expect it won't be catastrophic and perhaps only negligible.
I did say a lot could happen in a year - you don't know who might take off. Heck, multiple guys could.
It just seems like it'll be a thinner and thinner group of players we might say has a realistic chance to make the NHL.
It just seems like it'll be a thinner and thinner group of players we might say has a realistic chance to make the NHL.
Yes, we'll see the gap starting in a year or so. But we also aren't projected to have the roster space to add anyone after this year. Things are likely to get crowded at forward and are already crowded on the back end. Where the heck is Peeke supposed to play if he's NHL ready?
I'm surprised Thurkauf is winning a poll. Was he better than his numbers last year?
We know why Meyer's career hit a rough patch. With Thurkauf it seems we're still scratching our heads.
We know why Meyer's career hit a rough patch. With Thurkauf it seems we're still scratching our heads.
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Theo Von
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I'm surprised Thurkauf is winning a poll. Was he better than his numbers last year?
We know why Meyer's career hit a rough patch. With Thurkauf it seems we're still scratching our heads.
I voted Calvin simply because he is playing at a pro level while Carson is not (yet).
I'm surprised Thurkauf is winning a poll. Was he better than his numbers last year?
We know why Meyer's career hit a rough patch. With Thurkauf it seems we're still scratching our heads.
Thurkauf dealt with injuries last year while Meyer adjusted to a new team/system/teammates after his tape worm bout.
Well, much has been made of a possible "D for F" trade. That remains a possibility - especially if they want to get Gavrikov regular time. I'd imagine they'll utilize a buyout next summer with the Tyutin buyout coming off the books - either Wennberg or Dubinsky, depending on which one underperforms the most. I'd also have to guess that a few of the RFAs in the AHL won't get qualified - basically pick from "the rest" in this exercise, plus some 25+ guys like Somerby, Simpson, Gerbe, Lilja, Dano, etc. I am also expecting a deal or two at the TDL if we're out of contention and trying to unload some cap/contracts.
But as you said, hardly any UFAs next year (Hannikainen, Gerbe, Simpson). Even if they're all gone and simply all the RFAs are retained, that's 45 contracts. There are nine prospects by my count (if you count Thome, which I wouldn't personally) who don't have contracts, plus probably next year's 1st rounder. So depending on how the seasons go both for Columbus and Cleveland, I could see some of the RFA guys traded for late round picks or whatnot, depending on how the FO wants to manage their unsigned players next year.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Because it's been made clear who my choice is and the smart folks don't want to get on my bad side.I'm surprised Thurkauf is winning a poll. Was he better than his numbers last year?
We know why Meyer's career hit a rough patch. With Thurkauf it seems we're still scratching our heads.
Honestly, tho?
* * *
This.
I'd feel comfortable with any of our top 7 D (including Kukan and Gavrikov) playing in the #4D spot. It wouldn't be the plan but that's just to indicate the strength of the unit. So if Peeke hits that level we'd have 8 top 4 capable D. A "D for F" trade wouldn't even be enough to get all of them in the lineup. I think the ideal is to have guys like Harrington and Clendening in the #7 and #8 slots, not Kukan and Gavrikov.
I had already factored in Wennberg and Dubinsky being outside of the top 9. Assuming Texier is in that top 9, and if a D for F trade happens, then there are zero spots for any of Bemstrom, Milano, Foudy, etc.. and none opening up next year.
TL;DR - we'd need to pull off a very big quantity for quality trade for the gap in the prospect pool to matter in regards to filling the lineup.
I mean, this glut of "pretty good players" with no one really that great (Seth Jones excepted) is borne out in all the contracts - not a single guy above $6m. The issue up front is Dubinsky, Wennberg, Foligno, Nash, and even Jenner not really producing that much. They haven't been overtaken completely by the Texier/Foudy/Bemstrom prospects - and probably can't be totally because of cap issues. So at the NHL level, like you mention, there's too much quantity of at least NHL-level players but no superstar. My fear is for the prospect pool in 2-3 years -> we've forgone so many picks that I think it'll catch up to us eventually.
neelynugs
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halfway through the season, how's the top 10 looking now?
biggest riser? biggest disappointment?
Not sure there would be a ton of movement. The 2 Russian forwards Marchenko and Voronkov would move up a bit and Berni just keeps doing his thing. Im not sure there is any major disappointments because there isnt many on that list with huge expectations. I think a little more was expected for Texier but hes been fine
CBJWerenski8
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pled
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EspenK
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I agree but but I think Marchenko needs a + also. Of course I had him higher than the poll to begin with.
Hello Johnny
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Hard to say who moves where, but Robinson seems like a riser, same with Marchenko and Voronkov. It's not an overwhelming prospect pool but it's chock full of NHL depth. Just needs some beefing up at the top end. I think Angle and MacInnis replace Meyer and Thurkauf, but it doesn't seem like many (if any) listed are having "bad" years.
Nitpicks, but I'd swap Gavrikov and Texier at the top, though I understand a defensive Dman isn't likely to top a center prospect. Peeke should move up at least one spot. I'd probably drop TFW below Marchenko and Stenlund, maybe even further. Robinson should be around 9/10. Bottom 6 or so I couldn't tell you.
Cowumbus
Registered User
My Updated Rankings:
1. Alex Texier (LW/C)
2. Vlad Gavrikov (D)
3. Kirill Marchenko (RW/LW)
4. Emil Bemstrom (LW)
5. Liam Foudy (C)
6. Andrew Peeke (D)
7. Daniil Tarasov (G)
8. Veini Vehviläinen (G)
9. Tim Berni (D)
10. Eric Robinson (LW)
11. Dmitri Voronkov (LW)
12. Kevin Stenlund (C/RW)
13. Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW)
14. Tyler Angle (C)
15. Eric Hjorth (D)
16. Gabe Carlsson (D)
17. Kole Sherwood (RW)
18. Marcus Karlberg (LW/RW) Haven’t Sean much of him tbh
19. Paul Bittner (LW)
1. Alex Texier (LW/C)
2. Vlad Gavrikov (D)
3. Kirill Marchenko (RW/LW)
4. Emil Bemstrom (LW)
5. Liam Foudy (C)
6. Andrew Peeke (D)
7. Daniil Tarasov (G)
8. Veini Vehviläinen (G)
9. Tim Berni (D)
10. Eric Robinson (LW)
11. Dmitri Voronkov (LW)
12. Kevin Stenlund (C/RW)
13. Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW)
14. Tyler Angle (C)
15. Eric Hjorth (D)
16. Gabe Carlsson (D)
17. Kole Sherwood (RW)
18. Marcus Karlberg (LW/RW) Haven’t Sean much of him tbh
19. Paul Bittner (LW)
neelynugs
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he was a beast in the WJC. i'd consider him #1 on this list (gavrikov seems like a regular
at this point)
CBJWerenski8
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Cowumbus
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I watched almost every game he played in, if he had better luck he would be on the scoreboard much more. Very excited for him.
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