Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

[joshjull]

I can't decide if its more of an indictment on casey or the sabres organization as a whole that going from the NHL club to the AHL club as seen as "a lot different", needing an adapting period.

Neither. It’s not unusual.

 

[Buffaloed]

Let the kid brew for the rest of this year and next in Rochester... perhaps a primary call-up next year.

Or he’s part of a trade now... because if you go through the first option... his trade value would likely be less than it is now.

perhaps Bowman is wanting to get fleeced again.

We used to cook prospects. Now we brew them. That's progress.

 

[joshjull]

We used to cook prospects. Now we brew them. That's progress.

It’s certainly better than eating them raw.

 

[Chainshot]

What’s the adjustment been like for you to play here? I always ask guys about the step up from the AHL to the NHL, but what’s this been like?
It’s a little bit different. I think more than anything, it’s just a little more chaotic down here. More times than not you have two guys coming at you rather than one and things like that. I think it’s just more chaotic. After a few games I got used to it and feel pretty good now.

They didn’t have any specific checklist to work on?
No, not really. It was just come down and play. It’s more minutes, it’s more touches and that was pretty much it.

 

[Samsonite23]

He has nothing specific to work on?...

 

[Chainshot]

He has nothing specific to work on?...

I think they wanted him to just go and play first. He's getting reps, he's getting practice time - a more structured development plan likely doesn't get through to him at the time of his assignment anyway, he was so off. I'm sure the places to look at working on his game will be part of what the staff is working on with him just in the day-to-day running of practices and games at first, then a more comprehensive direction will follow.

 

[Buffaloed]

He has nothing specific to work on?...

I thought the idea was to get him away from Dahlin so they wouldn't stay up all night playing video games.

 

[Icicle]

He has nothing specific to work on?...

Confidence

 

[OkimLom]

wow. I didn’t think this organization can get more amateurish than what they are already. I’m really hoping they did tell him what he needed to work on and he’s just not willing to share it, or maybe he just didn’t listen to them (which is an issue that is easy to fix). Otherwise, this organization is in more trouble than I thought.

 

[Buffaloed]

wow. I didn’t think this organization can get more amateurish than what they are already. I’m really hoping they did tell him what he needed to work on and he’s just not willing to share it, or maybe he just didn’t listen to them (which is an issue that is easy to fix). Otherwise, this organization is in more trouble than I thought.

He needs to learn to play without the puck. Krueger discussed it. He talked about how Mittelstadt always had the puck on his stick in high school, college, and at the WJC. When it wasn't happening in the pros he didn't know what to do.

 

[BananaSquad]

wow. I didn’t think this organization can get more amateurish than what they are already. I’m really hoping they did tell him what he needed to work on and he’s just not willing to share it, or maybe he just didn’t listen to them (which is an issue that is easy to fix). Otherwise, this organization is in more trouble than I thought.

Haha what?

 

[explore]

wow. I didn’t think this organization can get more amateurish than what they are already. I’m really hoping they did tell him what he needed to work on and he’s just not willing to share it, or maybe he just didn’t listen to them (which is an issue that is easy to fix). Otherwise, this organization is in more trouble than I thought.

Haha what?

In the article, Mittelstadt is asked whether the Sabres gave him a list of things to work on when he was sent down and he said no, they just sent him down to get him more ice time.

I agree that if the Sabres didn't give him things to work on, then it looks bad on the team, but my impression of Mittelstadt is waning and I'm beginning to think he may never be a competent NHLer. He's young, but he doesn't seem to have a fire in him and he sounds like he's taking his AHL stint for granted, instead of looking at it as an opportunity to become a better NH.

I'm of the opinion that he should be left unprotected in the expansion draft if it comes between choosing him or someone like Montour or Ristolainen.

(Yes, I know his stats after his first three games are ok--7 points in 12 games total, but 7 points in 9 games after the first three, but that's par for course what guys like Lazar and Asplund have put up. Heck, Pilut put up similar numbers, it isn't impressive.)

 

[Bendium]

Just used Mittelstadt as an example in a stat discussion, but by the time I was done I thought the analysis should go here.

NHLE: NHLE is an equivalency formula designed to give us an idea of how a player would perform at the NHL level using counting numbers (points). Each major NHL feeder league has it's own NHLE value, which is based on a series of calculations outlined by Gabe Desjardins here. NHLE is also a nice way to compare counting numbers between players in different leagues. Currently, the NHLE values are as follows:

To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:
[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

Example: Casey Mittelstadt in the USHL had 32 pts in 26 games. He had 30 pts in 34 games in the NCAA. So far in the AHL he has 7pts in 13 games. He has 29 pts in 114 NHL games.

((32/26)x82)x.27 = 27.2 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((30/34)x82)x.41 = 29.7 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((7/13)x82)x.44 = 19.4 pts per season expected in the NHL
((29/114)x82)x1 = 20.8 pts per season in the NHL

This really shows why there was never any legitimate reason beyond hope for bringing Casey up to the NHL. Worse, is he shows below average response to the increase in competition. The only thing that can get him from where he is as a 21 pt/yr player to a say 50-60 pt second line player is a ton of development of skills, skating, strength, confidence, hockey sense, defensive prowess, etc. This should always be done working from the lowest rung up. At this point his only option is the AHL, so he needs to sit there and work on his game until he is producing at a 1.2 or better pt/gm clip for at least half a season before he ever sniffs the NHL again. Apologies to Mittelstadt fans, but I do not think he has the work ethic, desire, heart, etc, to focus on himself in a way that get it done. This analysis puts me in the "trade him while he has value club".​

 

[HaNotsri]

Just used Mittelstadt as an example in a stat discussion, but by the time I was done I thought the analysis should go here.

NHLE: NHLE is an equivalency formula designed to give us an idea of how a player would perform at the NHL level using counting numbers (points). Each major NHL feeder league has it's own NHLE value, which is based on a series of calculations outlined by Gabe Desjardins here. NHLE is also a nice way to compare counting numbers between players in different leagues. Currently, the NHLE values are as follows:

To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:
[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

Example: Casey Mittelstadt in the OHL had 32 pts in 26 games. He had 30 pts in 34 games in the NCAA. So far in the AHL he has 7pts in 13 games. He has 29 pts in 114 NHL games.

((32/26)x82)x.3 = 30.3 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((30/34)x82)x.41 = 29.7 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((7/13)x82)x.44 = 19.4 pts per season expected in the NHL
((29/114)x82)x1 = 20.8 pts per season in the NHL

This really shows why there was never any legitimate reason beyond hope for bringing Casey up to the NHL. Worse, is he shows below average response to the increase in competition. The only thing that can get him from where he is as a 21 pt/yr player to a say 50-60 pt second line player is a ton of development of skills, skating, strength, confidence, hockey sense, defensive prowess, etc. This should always be done working from the lowest rung up. At this point his only option is the AHL, so he needs to sit there and work on his game until he is producing at a 1.2 or better pt/gm clip for at least half a season before he ever sniffs the NHL again. Apologies to Mittelstadt fans, but I do not think he has the work ethic, desire, heart, etc, to focus on himself in a way that get it done. This analysis puts me in the "trade him while he has value club".​

He doesn't really have any value. Too late for a trade unless he's an add on the same level as a 3rd round pick. I think we could see improvement if he plays as a winger over time, could see him become a Tyler Ennis level of player in the end (he's at 0.51 ppg in the NHL now). A cuddly guy we can use to fill a slot in the top 6 when we have injuries and the rest of the year he's watching the games from the side, eating popcorn.

 

[wnysupport]

Just used Mittelstadt as an example in a stat discussion, but by the time I was done I thought the analysis should go here.

NHLE: NHLE is an equivalency formula designed to give us an idea of how a player would perform at the NHL level using counting numbers (points). Each major NHL feeder league has it's own NHLE value, which is based on a series of calculations outlined by Gabe Desjardins here. NHLE is also a nice way to compare counting numbers between players in different leagues. Currently, the NHLE values are as follows:

To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:
[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

Example: Casey Mittelstadt in the OHL had 32 pts in 26 games. He had 30 pts in 34 games in the NCAA. So far in the AHL he has 7pts in 13 games. He has 29 pts in 114 NHL games.

((32/26)x82)x.3 = 30.3 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((30/34)x82)x.41 = 29.7 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((7/13)x82)x.44 = 19.4 pts per season expected in the NHL
((29/114)x82)x1 = 20.8 pts per season in the NHL

This really shows why there was never any legitimate reason beyond hope for bringing Casey up to the NHL. Worse, is he shows below average response to the increase in competition. The only thing that can get him from where he is as a 21 pt/yr player to a say 50-60 pt second line player is a ton of development of skills, skating, strength, confidence, hockey sense, defensive prowess, etc. This should always be done working from the lowest rung up. At this point his only option is the AHL, so he needs to sit there and work on his game until he is producing at a 1.2 or better pt/gm clip for at least half a season before he ever sniffs the NHL again. Apologies to Mittelstadt fans, but I do not think he has the work ethic, desire, heart, etc, to focus on himself in a way that get it done. This analysis puts me in the "trade him while he has value club".​

Sweet, that means Connor McDavid should only be averaging 63 points per year....sounds like just a bit flawed of a calculation to me. Using his last year in the OHL when he had 120 points in 47 games.
((120/47)x82)x.3 = 63 points per season expected in the NHL

 

[coastal]

I agree that trading Mitts now is the way to go...

 

[mechaworm]

Sweet, that means Connor McDavid should only be averaging 63 points per year....sounds like just a bit flawed of a calculation to me. Using his last year in the OHL when he had 120 points in 47 games.
((120/47)x82)x.3 = 63 points per season expected in the NHL

NHL-e isn't about the player you could become one day, or even in your fifth NHL season. It's about what you would probably do immediately if you made the jump from league X to the NHL from one year to the next. It's also averaging all players who make the jump, so it should have plenty of outliers -- especially a guy like McDavid.

It's hard to argue it's a biased rubric, it's really just a mathematical analysis of everybody who did the same thing before you. If you thought Casey's hands and vision were better predictive of his immediate NHL success than his production at lower levels, you know, that would've been a scouting judgment. And sometimes you'd have been right. Not this time.

 

[explore]

Sweet, that means Connor McDavid should only be averaging 63 points per year....sounds like just a bit flawed of a calculation to me. Using his last year in the OHL when he had 120 points in 47 games.
((120/47)x82)x.3 = 63 points per season expected in the NHL

Those numbers are meant to be used as a general rule of thumb for typical players than it is for players like McDavid or Eichel. Even Eichel, who had 72 points in the NCAA, would've been expected to put up ~30 points in his first year.

I don't think those ratios have much real value other than to temper unrealistic expectations of typical draft picks.

 

[wnysupport]

NHL-e isn't about the player you could become one day, or even in your fifth NHL season. It's about what you would probably do immediately if you made the jump from league X to the NHL from one year to the next. It's also averaging all players who make the jump, so it should have plenty of outliers -- especially a guy like McDavid.

It's hard to argue it's a biased rubric, it's really just a mathematical analysis of everybody who did the same thing before you. If you thought Casey's hands and vision were better predictive of his immediate NHL success than his production at lower levels, you know, that would've been a scouting judgment. And sometimes you'd have been right. Not this time.

I just think it's one of those tools that people use to fit their narrative. If it has plenty of outliers, it shouldn't be used to prove one way or the other if someone is ready for the NHL.

Personally, I think Casey's career is going to succeed or fail based on him, and him alone. All the talent in the world (not saying he's got all the talent in the world, lol) is a waste if he doesn't have the drive to succeed.

 

[joshjull]

Just used Mittelstadt as an example in a stat discussion, but by the time I was done I thought the analysis should go here.

NHLE: NHLE is an equivalency formula designed to give us an idea of how a player would perform at the NHL level using counting numbers (points). Each major NHL feeder league has it's own NHLE value, which is based on a series of calculations outlined by Gabe Desjardins here. NHLE is also a nice way to compare counting numbers between players in different leagues. Currently, the NHLE values are as follows:

To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:
[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

Example: Casey Mittelstadt in the OHL had 32 pts in 26 games. He had 30 pts in 34 games in the NCAA. So far in the AHL he has 7pts in 13 games. He has 29 pts in 114 NHL games.

((32/26)x82)x.3 = 30.3 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((30/34)x82)x.41 = 29.7 pts per season expected in the NHL.
((7/13)x82)x.44 = 19.4 pts per season expected in the NHL
((29/114)x82)x1 = 20.8 pts per season in the NHL

This really shows why there was never any legitimate reason beyond hope for bringing Casey up to the NHL. Worse, is he shows below average response to the increase in competition. The only thing that can get him from where he is as a 21 pt/yr player to a say 50-60 pt second line player is a ton of development of skills, skating, strength, confidence, hockey sense, defensive prowess, etc. This should always be done working from the lowest rung up. At this point his only option is the AHL, so he needs to sit there and work on his game until he is producing at a 1.2 or better pt/gm clip for at least half a season before he ever sniffs the NHL again. Apologies to Mittelstadt fans, but I do not think he has the work ethic, desire, heart, etc, to focus on himself in a way that get it done. This analysis puts me in the "trade him while he has value club".​

Just a FYI Casey never played in the OHL. He split his draft year between HS hockey and the USHL.

 

[mechaworm]

I just think it's one of those tools that people use to fit their narrative. If it has plenty of outliers, it shouldn't be used to prove one way or the other if someone is ready for the NHL.

Personally, I think Casey's career is going to succeed or fail based on him, and him alone. All the talent in the world (not saying he's got all the talent in the world, lol) is a waste if he doesn't have the drive to succeed.

Yeah, it seems it's worth repeating nobody would suggest that NHL-e tells you anything about a player's full NHL career. Casey went from being a pretty good scorer in the NCAA to doing about what that production would indicate in the NHL. So he's not an outlier there, and the analysis is over.

What he develops into in 3-5 years really has no bearing on his NHL-e for that college season. The analysis was of limited ambition, and it's done with.

If Casey gets 80-some AHL games and then and they bring him up again, you'd probably have another reasonable test for NHL-e. But I would still say, at that point, if he's tacking along at 0.5 PPG in the A, it would be foolish to bring him up expecting him to score big points in the NHL immediately. He probably won't. Maybe he's a more complete player and kills penalties or something, but I'd still bet on NHL-e telling me something about point production.

 

[mechaworm]

Even Eichel, who had 72 points in the NCAA, would've been expected to put up ~30 points in his first year.

Eichel had 71 points in 40 games in the NCAA. You divide 71/40, multiply by how many games the guy will play in the NHL, and then multiply that number by the NHL-e value (0.41) for the NCAA.

Eichel scored 56 points in 81 games in his rookie year. If you told NHL-e he'd miss one game due to injury, the prediction would've been ((71/40)*81)*0.41 = 58.9 points.

So actually, Eichel was not an outlier at all.

 

[explore]

Eichel had 71 points in 40 games in the NCAA. You divide 71/40, multiply by how many games the guy will play in the NHL, and then multiply that number by the NHL-e value (0.41) for the NCAA.

Eichel scored 56 points in 81 games in his rookie year. If you told NHL-e he'd miss one game due to injury, the prediction would've been ((71/40)*81)*0.41 = 58.9 points.

So actually, Eichel was not an outlier at all.

Good catch. I thought it was a straight multiplying of their point totals, but the way you described makes more sense.

 

[Bendium]

Just a FYI Casey never played in the OHL. He split his draft year between HS hockey and the USHL.

Your correct. Edit made....and it makes it worse. Blah.

 

[joshjull]

I just think it's one of those tools that people use to fit their narrative. If it has plenty of outliers, it shouldn't be used to prove one way or the other if someone is ready for the NHL.

Personally, I think Casey's career is going to succeed or fail based on him, and him alone. All the talent in the world (not saying he's got all the talent in the world, lol) is a waste if he doesn't have the drive to succeed.

It can certainly be misused or misrepresented. The same could be said of a lot of stats used on here.

As @mechaworm pointed out, its just a predictive model for what to expect from a player if they jumped from their league to the NHL. It doesn’t tell us much of anything beyond that.

Its a good tool to use as a starting point to determine if a player is ready to make the jump or not. Or to get a rough idea what to expect from them in the first NHL season. Its not the end all be all but its pretty helpful. Plus its a nice tool to use to compare prospects from different leagues, like Cozens in WHL and R2 in Liiga.


I agree Mitts career going forward is entirely in his hands. How hard he works and grows in the AHL right now and next offseason will have an enormous impact on his chances of success.