Carolina looking very good so far this season

[SoundAndFury]

Ferland scored 20 goals last year so assume he can do the same and that leaves the Canes 41 goals short from last year. I don't think it's unreasonable AT ALL to assume that Svech, Necas, Foegele, Wallmark, Zykov, and Martinook are going to exceed that 41 goals, not to mention being better defensively. Heck, they already have 8 goals between them in just 4 games.

I do agree with you that they are by no means a sure thing when it comes to the playoffs, but I do think they are much improved at forward compared to last year's team.

Thank you, these calculations are actually very useful to get the bigger picture.

So basically Carolina needs ~83 goals out of their new guys to make the PO unless they get Vezina-level goaltending. Even if we pencil in Ferland for 25 that leaves 58 to the other guys. That seems like a lot, doesn't it?

So like I said, I agree this forward group is better but really there is plenty of reasons to be skeptical about it.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I have been one of Skinner's most ardent defenders in the past because I don't think he is bad defensively as people seem to believe, but yeah, other people are right here. He would stick out like a sore thumb on this team. They definitely did the right thing shipping him out, it would be a terrible fit.

It's not all just, subtracting the goals of the guys who left and adding in goals of the new guys. You have to account for philosophical changes.

He's not bad defensively exactly he just lacks awareness I think. He has a great active stick and can strip people of the puck and I wouldn't call him lazy or anything like that it's just he doesn't mesh with anyone and isn't really ever in the right place defensively to do anything. If he doesn't have the puck then he's just not really sure what to do with himself and he doesn't make others around him better.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Thank you, these calculations are actually very useful to get the bigger picture.

So basically Carolina needs ~83 goals out of their new guys to make the PO unless they get Vezina-level goaltending. Even if we pencil in Ferland for 25 that leaves 58 to the other guys. That seems like a lot, doesn't it?

So like I said, I agree this forward group is better but really there is plenty of reasons to be skeptical about it.

I was using a simple in/out to point out that the forward group could easily be better than it was last year, even without Skinner and Lindholm (based on your comment). I didn't even account for Hamilton's scoring for instance. Still, there are other factors at play.

1) The Defense (on paper) is much better this year with the addition of Hamilton and CDH replacing Hanifin and Dahlbeck.
2) I do think the goaltending will be improved over last year, which isn't hard even though it won't be elite by any means.
3) I expect a lot more scoring from the blueline with the addition of Hamilton and I expect Faulk to bounce back, so not all those goals you mention need to come from the forwards.
4) Brindy has them playing a much more aggressive, up tempo style which is conducive to creating more scoring chances vs. what Peters had them playing.

Are there reasons to still be skeptical? Without a doubt. They have 11 new players on the team, still aren't proven at center, 5 rookies in the line-up, questionable goaltending, one of the youngest teams in the NHL, the lowest payroll in the NHL, and a brand new head coach. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.

 

[bluedevil58]

I hold reservations until the 20 game mark unless the team is like 8-1-1 after 10 games or something of the sort. For far too long I have wanted to give up in the team 5 to 10 games in knowing the season was going to be a total train wreck. But gave it until Turkey day to make the verdict on the team.

Now the team is winning so I am even more cautious and skeptical.

 

[Roboturner913]

Even if we pencil in Ferland for 25 that leaves 58 to the other guys. That seems like a lot, doesn't it?

Not if they keep averaging 4.25 goals per game

Seriously, the philosophical difference is so drastic from last year's team to this one, simply adding and subtracting goals from last year's team is pointless. It's like comparing apples to dump trucks.

 

[bluedevil58]

He's not bad defensively exactly he just lacks awareness I think. He has a great active stick and can strip people of the puck and I wouldn't call him lazy or anything like that it's just he doesn't mesh with anyone and isn't really ever in the right place defensively to do anything. If he doesn't have the puck then he's just not really sure what to do with himself and he doesn't make others around him better.

Not bad defensively but lacks awareness. Leading to turn overs and goals against. He was historic for not being able to have chemistry with anyone. Not a bad player. Canes got fleeced on the trade.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Thank you, these calculations are actually very useful to get the bigger picture.

So basically Carolina needs ~83 goals out of their new guys to make the PO unless they get Vezina-level goaltending. Even if we pencil in Ferland for 25 that leaves 58 to the other guys. That seems like a lot, doesn't it?

So like I said, I agree this forward group is better but really there is plenty of reasons to be skeptical about it.

Maybe I'm reading his math wrong, but I could swear BBA said we need 61 goals to replace the ones we lost. Given Ferland at 20 and we already have 5 from Svechnikov and Foegele, we're talking 36 more goals over the rest of the season from Svechnikov, Foegele, Necas, Wallmark, Zykov, and Martinook. Even each of those guys scores only 5 goals, we're basically there already -- anything over that is gravy.

That would replace last year's offense. I believe someone did the math this summer and found that the Canes would have made the playoffs last year with .910 goaltending. Not exactly Vezina-level. Not even average.

Of course they're going to cool off offensively. Everyone including Canes fans expects that. But again, I really do think you're underestimating how different this team looks from last year. They have 11 new players and a new coach. Almost every single player who underachieved last year is gone.

 

[Ole Gil]

Forwards Out: Skinner (24 goals; -27), Lindholm (16G, -8); Ryan (15G, -15), Stempniak (3G, -8), Nordstrom (2G, -11), Kruger (1G, -6) = 61 goals, - 75 (out of a team total of -143).

Ferland scored 20 goals last year so assume he can do the same and that leaves the Canes 41 goals short from last year. I don't think it's unreasonable AT ALL to assume that Svech, Necas, Foegele, Wallmark, Zykov, and Martinook are going to exceed that 41 goals, not to mention being better defensively. Heck, they already have 8 goals between them in just 4 games.

I do agree with you that they are by no means a sure thing when it comes to the playoffs, but I do think they are much improved at forward compared to last year's team.

With the Brindamour style of hockey (vs. Peters), I think there's a good chance we see some improvements statistically from guys who were already on the team as well.

It's early, but Jordan Staal, I think, is going to benefit the most from the new HC, as Rod Brindamour wants Jordan to be the new Rod Brindamour. That involves trying to score 30 goals instead of just playing keep away 20 minutes a night like he's historically been used in Carolina.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maybe I'm reading his math wrong, but I could swear BBA said we need 61 goals to replace the ones we lost. Given Ferland at 20 and we already have 5 from Svechnikov and Foegele, we're talking 36 more goals over the rest of the season from Svechnikov, Foegele, Necas, Wallmark, Zykov, and Martinook. Even each of those guys scores only 5 goals, we're basically there already -- anything over that is gravy.

That would replace last year's offense. I believe someone did the math this summer and found that the Canes would have made the playoffs last year with .910 goaltending. Not exactly Vezina-level. Not even average.

Of course they're going to cool off offensively. Everyone including Canes fans expects that. But again, I really do think you're underestimating how different this team looks from last year. They have 11 new players and a new coach. Almost every single player who underachieved last year is gone.

I assumed he meant that the Canes would need to score MORE than last year so that's where the 83 game from?

To be fair though, I only looked at most of the forwards. When I look at even the fringe players and include the D (Hanifin, Dahlbeck), the Canes "lost" 75 goals last year. Hamilton and Ferland should be able to account for about 35 of those, still leaving 40 to go just to match last year.

Through 4 games, the new players (including Ferland and Hamilton) have already scored 10. Like I alluded to earlier though and Ole Gil added, the style Brindy plays could very well cause an overall increase even with returning players. Only time will tell.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

The best part of last night was when Svechnikov scored a goal while simultaneously shoving Pettersson to the ice.



Better angle

 

[tarheelhockey]

The best part of last night was when Svechnikov scored a goal while simultaneously shoving Pettersson to the ice.

This is the most hypnotic thing. Just keep watching it.

 

[Curufinwe]

I wish Brindy was our coach.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Seriously, the philosophical difference is so drastic from last year's team to this one, simply adding and subtracting goals from last year's team is pointless. It's like comparing apples to dump trucks.

Well without any adding or subtracting the goal is to score about 250 times in the season to make the PO. And that's with adequate goaltending. So as you can see, if you pencil in realistic projections next to the players' names, it probably means guys like Foegele or Svechnikov can do some pretty heavy lifting offensively. Because the team isn't going to keep averaging 4.25 goals per game, believe me. That was kinda how this conversation started in the first place.

Maybe I'm reading his math wrong, but I could swear BBA said we need 61 goals to replace the ones we lost. Given Ferland at 20 and we already have 5 from Svechnikov and Foegele, we're talking 36 more goals over the rest of the season from Svechnikov, Foegele, Necas, Wallmark, Zykov, and Martinook. Even each of those guys scores only 5 goals, we're basically there already -- anything over that is gravy.

I assumed he meant that the Canes would need to score MORE than last year so that's where the 83 game from?

Sorry for the confusion, the threshold for making the PO seems to be ~250 goals, 22 more than Canes scored last year. That's where 83 came from.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Well without any adding or subtracting the goal is to score about 250 times in the season to make the PO. And that's with adequate goaltending. So as you can see, if you pencil in realistic projections next to the players' names, it probably means guys like Foegele or Svechnikov can do some pretty heavy lifting offensively. Because the team isn't going to keep averaging 4.25 goals per game, believe me. That was kinda how this conversation started in the first place.

Yep, so the Canes need to score 233 goals in the next 78 games, or a 2.98 G/GP rate for the rest of the season. Last year, they scored at a 2.74 G/GP rate.

With the factors I mentioned above (uptempo style, new players, more scoring from D, etc...), it's not a given, but it's also not hard to see it happening either (injuries notwithstanding). As you showed, it's about 20 more goals over the next 78 games.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Well without any adding or subtracting the goal is to score about 250 times in the season to make the PO. And that's with adequate goaltending. So as you can see, if you pencil in realistic projections next to the players' names, it probably means guys like Foegele or Svechnikov can do some pretty heavy lifting offensively. Because the team isn't going to keep averaging 4.25 goals per game, believe me. That was kinda how this conversation started in the first place.

Aho - 30
Teravainen - 20
Williams - 20
Staal - 20
Ferland - 20
Svechnikov - 20
McGinn - 15
Foegele - 15
Necas - 15
Rask - 10 (out for another month or two)
Martinook - 5
Wallmark - 5
di Giuseppe - 5
scrubs/callups - 5
FORWARD TOTAL - 205

Hamilton - 15
Faulk - 12
Slavin - 8
de Haan - 3
Pesce - 2
TVR - 4
Fleury - 1
DEFENSE TOTAL - 45


That's 250 and I don't think any of these are wild projections based on past performance and what's already on the scoreboard.

Bear in mind that New Jersey made it in last season with 248 and a .910 in net.

 

[Pens x]

This team would be dangerous if they spent to the cap (still $15 mill under cap max) and hadn’t donated Skinner to Buffalo.

But I’m happy to see they are playing well. Maybe they can draw some interest from the fans in NC again.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

And there's Pens x once again commenting on a the team he publicly said he didn't care about. Like a moth to a flame.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

This team would be dangerous if they spent to the cap (still $15 mill under cap max) and hadn’t donated Skinner to Buffalo.

But I’m happy to see they are playing well. Maybe they can draw some interest from the fans in NC.

I’m not at all convinced they would be a better team with Skinner.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Have them as a playoff team this year. Think they beat out NJ and CBJ

 

[Tryamw]

Have them as a playoff team this year. Think they beat out NJ and CBJ

I'll stick with my out of the playoffs bubble projection But I KNOW I'll have fun this year watching them. That's what I like the most.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I saw them against the Isles in the season opener. I thought they were okay, but looking very good as the title of the OP suggests and Mcbackup didn't play, not sure I would agree with the huge addition or the very good part at this point.

 

[Roboturner913]

Because the team isn't going to keep averaging 4.25 goals per game, believe me.

No kidding.

My point was, your argument depends on a baseline of getting x number of goals from new players that replaced the old players without accounting for (for lack of a better word) "upgrades" to existing players via changes in team philosophy and/or player development.

Jordan Staal, for instance, has 3 goals in 4 games and has shown more offense at this point than he has at any point since he joined the team in 2012. Do I think he's going to keep up that pace and score 61 goals, no. Do I think he could score 30, as opposed to the 19 he had last year, or the 16 he had the year before? Yeah, I think that's a pretty good bet, based on what I've seen so far and assuming they continue to play the same style of attacking on offense. That's 11 goals you're not accounting for.

On a different note, Sebastian Aho is better this year than he was last year. It's highly likely he scores more points than last year even if Peters was still the coach and not accounting for the change I mentioned above.

But again, I don't think that extrapolating goal totals from last year to this year is a good line of reasoning. Maybe it would be if the coaching and overall team strategies/philosophies were the same, but they're not. They're drastically different.

So far Rod's approach to game coaching appears to be something akin to Peter Laviolette's style, so take that into consideration and understand the stats from a Bill Peters team to a Peter Laviolette team just aren't going to translate straight across the board.

 

[Fire Benning]

HF jinx incoming.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

I know this is gonna sound ridiculous, but I wouldn’t be suprised if McBackup was this years Tim Thomas ...

 

[dogbazinho]

"Division not great." Get the heck outta here.