Okay, there might be a case for Lafleur if Jagr doesn't play after the lockout. If his career spans from 1990-2004 that is. The reason being is that Jagr had a couple years where he declined and had he retired then we would view him a little differently because it looked like he was never going to hit that elite level again.
Then a whole new situation arises post lockout. Jagr almost wins the Hart and Art Ross. He has another elite season (not quite as good) next year and then is still good in 2008 with a great playoff too.
With all this added, there is no way Lafleur beats him in career value. All Lafleur has going for him is possibly the peak (which would be a close match anyway) and the Cups and being the most important part of the Cups. Jagr of course was no slouch in the playoffs either though.
But even with the 1990-2004 comparison you still might lean towards Jagr, maybe
I was thinking the same thing, that it would be a lot closer if Jagr didn't return after the lockout.
Your summary of his Rangers years is basically accurate, but I would say there was a substantial difference between his first and second seasons in NY, more than is shown by his points.
In 2006, Jagr had a dominating season. If Thornton wasn't traded (or probably if no Olympics), Jagr likely wins the Ross/Richard and Hart/Pearson. There were very few who watched a good portion of his season and didn't conclude he was the best skater in the league that season, although perhaps the same could be said of Thornton (I'm not counting the media, i.e. Hart votes, here... I mean core fans, players, coaches, GMs, etc.).
While his 2006 season is still not fully appreciated by some, he was not close to the same player in 2007 (due to injury, not age). As unfortunate as he was in 2006 to not win other awards besides the Pearson, he was fortunate in 2007 to finish top 10 in scoring (the breaks went his way more, weird as it may sound).
It's sort of similar to how his 1996 season is not given its full credit (because he finished second to Lemieux in scoring), while his 2001 season was not nearly as good and yet he won a Ross that year.
It's actually a bit strange that his last three seasons in the NHL added so much not only to his career value, but to his legacy and overall impression on many people. I say this, because as great as he was in 2006, he had several seasons of similar or greater value, his 2007 season is barely among his top ten, and his 2008 regular season was obviously one of his worst.
Just goes to show the importance of perception and his years after 2004 helped change this perception in some important ways:
- Played elite hockey well into his 30s. Not just in 2006, but to a much lesser extent in 2007, in the playoffs, in the KHL in 2005 (would have led league in scoring if didn't also play in Czech league), and in international play (world cup and world champ. during lockout, two Olympics, other world championships). Also continued to play elite hockey in the playoffs, helping Nylander to be the playoff point/game leader in 2007, while Jagr was leader in playoff points after being ousted in round two in 2008.
- More team success. During lockout he was a world cup medalist, won a championship tournament in Omsk, and an unusually high quality world championships. He led the Rangers to three straight playoffs, after they had failed to make it several years with the likes of Messier, Leetch, Richter, Gretzky, Lindros, etc, (they were older, but so was Jagr during his tenure there). He also was an Olympic medalist and won a world championship on a team where only he and Vokoun were known.
- Re-evaluation of his pre-lockout seasons. First, his 2.5 seasons with Caps were shown to be more of an aberration than reflective of the player he was. It was far from an ideal situation, one he probably could have handled better, but ultimately not his choosing. Also, the increased acceptance of adjusted points (whether de facto or conceptually) and new evidence such as adjusted even strength data and the compilation of Hart shares put Jagr's peak and career in an even better light historically, showing him to be one of the very best scorers and players in history.
It's surprising how lopsided this poll is, not because Jagr's career value was not substantially more than Lafleur's (obviously most believe it was), but because of what a great player Lafleur was and how great he was perceived to be. The change is in the perception of Jagr, not in that of Lafleur. Four years ago, many considered it an outrage that in polls of best all-time forwards, Jagr finished higher (or finished behind but received great support) than forwards such as Lafleur, Esposito, Mikita, Messier, Clarke, Bossy, etc. Now, while there is a wide variety of opinion on most of those players (probably the least variance would be in the cases of Lafleur and Mikita), more and more the burden of proof is on those contesting Jagr's legacy rather than on those who believe he was one of the all-time greats.