GDT: CAR @ PHI: Lining up for the Extra Point

[tarheelhockey]

Now the counter is they aren't that good and things will even out,

That’s where I’m coming from here. In no way does Florida look like a team that’s going to win 77% of their games on a continuing basis. At some point they’ll be due for a hard skid.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That’s where I’m coming from here. In no way does Florida look like a team that’s going to win 77% of their games on a continuing basis. At some point they’ll be due for a hard skid.

That could be true. The flipside is that I don't see any way the Canes put together a streak like they need to either so it's a catch 22.

In reality, for their games in hand, we're talking the difference between 1 game (of the 3). It's not unreasonable that they win 2 / 3 of those games in hand. It wouldn't be unreasonable for them to win 1 /3 either, but no matter what they are gaining points IMO.

 

[Joe McGrath]

That could be true. The flipside is that I don't see any way the Canes put together a streak like they need to either so it's a catch 22.

In reality, for their games in hand, we're talking the difference between 1 game (of the 3). It's not unreasonable that they win 2 / 3 of those games in hand. It wouldn't be unreasonable for them to win 1 /3 either, but no matter what they are gaining points IMO.

The interesting thing is that they keep 2 games in hand until April 3rd. They play 5 games in 7 days to end the season. Do they keep rolling and collect a bunch of points in those games or do they gas out?

 

[tarheelhockey]

That could be true. The flipside is that I don't see any way the Canes put together a streak like they need to either so it's a catch 22.

In reality, for their games in hand, we're talking the difference between 1 game (of the 3). It's not unreasonable that they win 2 / 3 of those games in hand. It wouldn't be unreasonable for them to win 1 /3 either, but no matter what they are gaining points IMO.

I don’t necessarily expect the Canes to put a streak together either, but the opportunity is staring them right in the face. They have a bunch of games left against tank teams and against teams who are in the race with them.

Meanwhile Florida has 3 games against Boston in the final 9 days of the season... with 3 other games in between... one of which is against us.

As always, it comes down to “if you can’t win the games then you don’t deserve to make it”, but I think the Canes still have an extremely real chance. If they fall short, it won’t be because they didn’t have a wide open window in the final month-plus of the season.

 

[JCLA]

If this comes down to the last game, we have to beat tampa. Hopefully Tampa is in rest mode

 

[Tryamw]

If this comes down to the last game, we have to beat tampa. Hopefully Tampa is in rest mode

Ouch.. This is why I shouldn't look at the schedule.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Florida also has 2 games against Buffalo, 2 against MTL, 3 against OTT, 1 against AZ, NYI, EDM, on the schedule as well.

No doubt though, the Canes need to win and not worry about anyone else, I just don't see it as likely.

 

[GoldiFox]

Canes need to go 11-5-2 for a 50/50 shot at the Playoffs. That ain’t happening. The only reason the Canes are even sniffing the Playoffs right now is because nobody appears to want that last WC spot. Every one of Columbus, NYI, and Carolina is losing constantly with it all on the line. Florida is charging up from behind. I wouldn’t be shocked if any of those 4 took that last spot, but the Canes are the least likely IMO.

 

[Bub]

WTF was that, Canes? Here I am trying to get to my spring of golfing and baseball, and you go and stuff another team 4-1. DON'T MAKE ME CARE ABOUT YOU AGAIN, DAMMIT.

 

[CandyCanes]

WTF was that, Canes? Here I am trying to get to my spring of golfing and baseball, and you go and stuff another team 4-1. DON'T MAKE ME CARE ABOUT YOU AGAIN, DAMMIT.

That's what they love to do. Make you care just enough, only for them to go on a suck streak so you can contemplate why the hell you've ever been a fan of this team.

 

[CandyCanes]

Let's hope the Panthers are pulling a classic Cane. Aka dig yourself in a hole the beginning of the season, become one of the hottest teams in the league for a months time or so, get nice and close to that last wildcard spot, and then crap the bed right near the end.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Say the Canes need at least 11 wins to make it (OTLs just make the math complicated otherwise).

Obviously you never win every game you're supposed to win, but:
@ CHI
@ NYR
vs NYI
vs EDM
vs ARI
@ OTT
vs OTT
vs NYR

^ Of those 8 games against the dregs of the league, there would be absolutely no excuse for failing to win 5+. Bad luck, injuries, doesn't matter. That's a winning-record slate of games, full stop.

vs WPG
@ MIN
vs BOS
vs PHI
@ WAS
@ PHI
vs TBL

^ 7 tough games. A winning record is a tough sell, but say we win 3 of those 7. That doesn't seem crazy or beyond expectations for this group.

So with conservative expectations, we can pretty easily see 8 wins in the 15 games above, correct?

vs NJD
@ NJD
@ FLA

^ There are the teams we're chasing. 3 games. We need 3 wins. That's it. That's your season, right there.

If we lose one of those last 3, we need to steal an extra one somewhere. That's what bites teams in the ass every year, but it's not completely insane to say we might lose to NJD but steal an extra win against the weak teams (go 6-2) or manage to go 4-3 against the hard teams. So again, very much an achievable goal any which way you cut it.

What we cannot do, is **** the bed and end up 3-5 against the worst teams in the league. Or go winless against the teams we're chasing. Or some other B.S. like that. We can't just go out and play like ass, we have to keep that slow and steady trickle of .500 hockey happening and win those 3 games against the teams clustered around us.

If you squint, it's actually quite feasible that they still somehow make it in. We need them to show up and actually make it happen.

 

[GoldiFox]

What we cannot do, is **** the bed and end up 3-5 against the worst teams in the league.

Like losing against Detroit? Or a Bergeron-less Bruins after securing a 3-1 lead?

Or go winless against the teams we're chasing. Or some other B.S. like that. We can't just go out and play like ass, we have to keep that slow and steady trickle of .500 hockey happening and win those 3 games against the teams clustered around us.

Like going 0-3 over the span of 3 days against NJD, NYI, an NJD?

If they weren't already playing like ass and losing the easy/important games then they would easily be in a Playoff spot right now. Nobody needs to get excited by a win where Philly looked bad and was missing one of their key top-6 guys.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Like losing against Detroit? Or a Bergeron-less Bruins after securing a 3-1 lead?



Like going 0-3 over the span of 3 days against NJD, NYI, an NJD?

If they weren't already playing like ass and losing the easy/important games then they would easily be in a Playoff spot right now. Nobody needs to get excited by a win where Philly looked bad and was missing one of their key top-6 guys.

Yes, those are exactly the kinds of things we can't do if we're going to make it.

So the challenge here is, stop doing that. Get through a dang month without facepalm-worthy blunders. Just find a way to show up and beat the Detroits of the league more often than not, and find a way to close out even a reasonable number of games against the Bostons. If we do that -- no hijinks, no nonsense -- then it basically comes down to a 5-game play-in series against the teams we are competing with directly.

We can get all depressed about the history of the team and decide that we won't do it, but the fact remains that we still can do it with even a modest amount of improvement over the utter nonsense of the past 3 weeks. The opportunity is there, it's now just a matter of execution.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I've seen nothing from this team that says they'll do better the final 18 games than they have at any month long stretch during the season to date, which is what it would take.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Ryan still sucks.

About time you finally realized that... smh that's what you get for not listening.

Given that it's Chia we can probably do it for Fleury and Rask.

I’d make that deal.

I wouldn't. I still need to see Poolparty wasn't entirely a by product of Laine and Aho before I move an asset like Fleury (unless we're saying Rask is negative value at this point).

 

[TheBigKahuna]

I've seen this movie before. The Canes will finish out just good enough to draft outside of the real talent, and still miss the playoffs. Just a hunch.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The product of Laine/Aho part was a WJC statement only though. IIRC, he was viewed as a top pick (top 3? 5?) even before the WJC and my understanding is that he didn't really play that much with Aho in Karpat (our Finland friends will have to comment on that).

I've watched Jesse a few times in EDM. There are moments where his speed and size is just unreal and he looks dominant. There is also a lot of time where he just looks lost out there. I have read some on the Oiler's board (specifically about him, not the board in general) and there are comments where people are concerned a bit about hockey sense, that he hasn't learned English, etc..but more about how the Oiler's are screwing up with him in how they are using him / jerking him around. Frankly, sounds a lot like some of the complaints in the past with Pitkanen when he was in Edm.

I'd do that trade in a heartbeat, but the Oiler's wouldn't (barring another brain fart by Chia). I think in the right environment, with a couple other Finns on the team and a huge hole in the line-up for a guy of his size, speed and ability, he'd be phenomenal here. His size, speed and shot are remarkable, but he' will take some time to reach full potential. I understand your point about Fleury and he is just starting to make his way, but with Slavin, Hanifin (and Bean), he's the most expendable. Sign someone like Kane or JVR in the offseason as well.

JVR/Kane/Neal-Staal-Williams
TT-Aho-Puljujarvi
Skinner-Necas-Lindholm (or if Aho struggles at C, move Lindy there)
McGinn-Wallmark-Foegele
Zykov

Slavin-Pesce
Hanifin-Faulk
Bean/Dhalbeck-TVR
Dhalbeck/Bean

Still need to solve the goalie issue, but that would be the most potent line-up the Canes have had upfront since shortly around the cup timeframe.

 

[NotOpie]

If this comes down to the last game, we have to beat tampa. Hopefully Tampa is in rest mode

Florida plays Boston in Boston on their last game of the season....with Boston doing the same that Tampa chooses to do.

 

[DaveG]

About time you finally realized that... smh that's what you get for not listening.





I wouldn't. I still need to see Poolparty wasn't entirely a by product of Laine and Aho before I move an asset like Fleury (unless we're saying Rask is negative value at this point).

I don't think it's negative value at all, but if Lindholm (who's looked excellent in the middle IMHO) stays where he is we're stuck with a 4 million dollar guy centering the 4th line. I can see Chia as the type that would trade a bluechip prospect for a guy that tops out as a top 4 dman and a #3 centerman, shit he's already done it before with Seguin.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I wouldn't. I still need to see Poolparty wasn't entirely a by product of Laine and Aho before I move an asset like Fleury (unless we're saying Rask is negative value at this point).

That's what scouts are for. The whole point of making a trade is buying low. If we wait for Poolparty to establish himself, his price goes way, way up.

 

[A Star is Burns]

So, we trust the scouts that you and others have been complaining about missing on McAvoy, missing on the players taken after Fleury, and picking Hanifin over others?

 

[tarheelhockey]

So, we trust the scouts that you and others have been complaining about missing on McAvoy, missing on the players taken after Fleury, and picking Hanifin over others?

Technically it’s a different group — the pro scouts would be the ones providing this intel.

Of course, this is the same group that got us Darling and Kruger, and have never convinced Francis to make an NHL player trade. So.

 

[geehaad]

Technically it’s a different group — the pro scouts would be the ones providing this intel.

Of course, this is the same group that got us Darling and Kruger, and have never convinced Francis to make an NHL player trade. So.

I always thought JR's NHL deals were mostly solid, respective to what he gave up and received...I wonder how different this group is compared to that group.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Technically it’s a different group — the pro scouts would be the ones providing this intel.

Of course, this is the same group that got us Darling and Kruger, and have never convinced Francis to make an NHL player trade. So.

I have to imagine they'd want some input from the guys that scouted JP not that long ago, or at least have that input on hand. Especially in a case where our amateur scouts would have seen plenty of him while playing with Aho at various times. But true enough otherwise.