GDT: Caps vs Habs 7:00PM EST

[Hivemind]

Hagelin - and HDH - are the least of our problems. We have a very strong 4th line (one of the best in the league) and has been our most consistent group all year. I get that people would like to see them play less and see the lines "above" them play more - but whether it's coaching, injuries, chemistry, individual performance, or some combo thereof, the takeaway from this season so far is that we have 6 forwards that provide a reasonably consistent performance from night to night (HDH and Kuzy, Ovie, and Wilson - though 43 has had several off nights), and 9 other forwards for 6 positions whose composition and performance oscillate pretty significantly. How Carl Hagelin ends up as being seen as the problem, when he delivers what he's there for almost every night, is bizarre to me. And whatever the problems with those 9 forwards for 6 positions, it's not HDH's fault that the inconsistent performance of who's ever in the middle 6 results in more HDH ice time. That's a reason to be thankful for them, not pissed off.

I don't think any part of this paragraph is particularly accurate.

HDH has been a solid but unspectacular line this year, not one of the best 4th lines in the league. Hatheway's raw totals are impressive, but that's also in large part because of the tons of minutes (borderline 2nd line minuets) that HDH gets. But most importantly, HDH's performance oscillates just as much as the rest of the line-up, yet their ice time never seems to fall because of it. Among Capitals forwards, only Tom Wilson and Lars Eller take as many or more penalties than each of the HDH trio this season, and many of HDH's have been offensive zone and/or 3rd period back breakers. Yet, HDH is still regularly deployed in the 3rd period and in offensive zone situations. They don't find themselves stapled to the bench for the bulk of close games like other players on the roster (even if those other players have scored goals or made other positive plays in that very game). When HDH slips up, and they do slip up as much as any other line on this team, they are still trotted right back out on the ice their next shift.

Isolating on Hagelin specifically, even if he was the player you claim he is, he would still be a $2.75M PK specialist providing zero offense. That's not a good use of his cap hits or the even strength minutes he receives. But, even more importantly, he's not the consistent player you claim he is. Hagelin's defensive play has been poor this season. Among regular Capitals forwards (16GP or more to include Backstrom), Hagelin ranks 3rd worst in xGA/60, 4th worst in Scoring Chances Against/60, 4th worst in High Danger Chances Against/60, and 3rd worst is xGF%. And he's doing this while simultaneously suppressing the Caps Goals For rate more than any other Capitals forward outside of Brett Leason. Plus there's this fun fact, in the 32 minutes Dowd and Hatheway have played together without Hagelin on their line, they've scored 3 goals for and had 0 scored against them, had an xGF rate of 58.88% and a HDCF% rate of 88.89%. It's a very limited and noisy sample, but it also matches up with past data from prior seasons. Dating back to Dowd and Hatheway's arrival, they have over 400 minutes of 5on5 time without Hagelin. In that time their CF% is ~3% better, FF% is ~3.5% better, SF% is about ~1.6% better, GF% is nearly 4% better, and xGF is almost 6% better without Hagelin than with him. It fully appears that the 4th line chemistry is between Dowd and Hatheway, and Hagelin is just along for the ride (and in some cases is dragging them down).

 

[Blitzkrieg365]

I didn't get to catch the game, but I was reading the thread to see what I missed. I'm not seeing a lot of people talking about how well Sammy played. Infact, most of the Sammy mentions were about how bad he was playing. What gives? 42 saves on 44 shots, .955 sv%, you can't ask for much more than that.

 

[Rayquaza64]

hello. connor mcmichael didnt even get 8 mins in a game he scored a goal. i am eternally confused. have a great day.

 

[caps4cup]

I don't think any part of this paragraph is particularly accurate.

HDH has been a solid but unspectacular line this year, not one of the best 4th lines in the league. Hatheway's raw totals are impressive, but that's also in large part because of the tons of minutes (borderline 2nd line minuets) that HDH gets. But most importantly, HDH's performance oscillates just as much as the rest of the line-up, yet their ice time never seems to fall because of it. Among Capitals forwards, only Tom Wilson and Lars Eller take as many or more penalties than each of the HDH trio this season, and many of HDH's have been offensive zone and/or 3rd period back breakers. Yet, HDH is still regularly deployed in the 3rd period and in offensive zone situations. They don't find themselves stapled to the bench for the bulk of close games like other players on the roster (even if those other players have scored goals or made other positive plays in that very game). When HDH slips up, and they do slip up as much as any other line on this team, they are still trotted right back out on the ice their next shift.

Isolating on Hagelin specifically, even if he was the player you claim he is, he would still be a $2.75M PK specialist providing zero offense. That's not a good use of his cap hits or the even strength minutes he receives. But, even more importantly, he's not the consistent player you claim he is. Hagelin's defensive play has been poor this season. Among regular Capitals forwards (16GP or more to include Backstrom), Hagelin ranks 3rd worst in xGA/60, 4th worst in Scoring Chances Against/60, 4th worst in High Danger Chances Against/60, and 3rd worst is xGF%. And he's doing this while simultaneously suppressing the Caps Goals For rate more than any other Capitals forward outside of Brett Leason. Plus there's this fun fact, in the 32 minutes Dowd and Hatheway have played together without Hagelin on their line, they've scored 3 goals for and had 0 scored against them, had an xGF rate of 58.88% and a HDCF% rate of 88.89%. It's a very limited and noisy sample, but it also matches up with past data from prior seasons. Dating back to Dowd and Hatheway's arrival, they have over 400 minutes of 5on5 time without Hagelin. In that time their CF% is ~3% better, FF% is ~3.5% better, SF% is about ~1.6% better, GF% is nearly 4% better, and xGF is almost 6% better without Hagelin than with him. It fully appears that the 4th line chemistry is between Dowd and Hatheway, and Hagelin is just along for the ride (and in some cases is dragging them down).

I’m not arguing that they’ve been great but:

1. They are 8/9/10 in terms of 5v5 TOI/game among forwards. That’s including Mantha’s SSS of playing 4 minutes less per game than he did last year, which would push them down to 9/10/11. They are not playing 2nd line minutes.

3. You use Hagelin’s actual GF rates because it’s worse than his xGF rate, and you use his xGA rate because his actual GA rate is outstanding. His xG% isn’t great. But his xGF/60 isn’t bad and is ahead of Backstrom, Sheary, Kuznetsov, and Wilson. His actual GF/60 is only better than Leason’s (as you said) but his actual GA/60 is 2nd to Hathaway’s. Among all forwards with 400+ minutes played, his GA/60 rate is 7th in the league. Again, his analytics aren’t great. But picking and choosing certain stats to use expected or actual rates to better fit your narrative doesn’t paint a perfect picture either.

 

[g00n]

It’s been two games. The consistent take is to take the evidence in totality.

Complaining post-game and long-term analysis are not the same thing.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I didn't get to catch the game, but I was reading the thread to see what I missed. I'm not seeing a lot of people talking about how well Sammy played. Infact, most of the Sammy mentions were about how bad he was playing. What gives? 42 saves on 44 shots, .955 sv%, you can't ask for much more than that.

shakey as hell early, flopping, crashing into his own posts, out of position….he came on strong late.

ups and downs like is typical….


He did his job last night and that’s all I can ask.

 

[Hivemind]

I’m not arguing that they’ve been great but:

1. They are 8/9/10 in terms of 5v5 TOI/game among forwards. That’s including Mantha’s SSS of playing 4 minutes less per game than he did last year, which would push them down to 9/10/11. They are not playing 2nd line minutes.

3. You use Hagelin’s actual GF rates because it’s worse than his xGF rate, and you use his xGA rate because his actual GA rate is outstanding. His xG% isn’t great. But his xGF/60 isn’t bad and is ahead of Backstrom, Sheary, Kuznetsov, and Wilson. His actual GF/60 is only better than Leason’s (as you said) but his actual GA/60 is 2nd to Hathaway’s. Among all forwards with 400+ minutes played, his GA/60 rate is 7th in the league. Again, his analytics aren’t great. But picking and choosing certain stats to use expected or actual rates to better fit your narrative doesn’t paint a perfect picture either.

1. Among the 392 forwards who have skated 25+ games (ie full regulars, not the typical 4th line rotational guy), Hatheway ranks 222 in EVTOI/GP. They're in the higher end of 3rd line or lower end of 2nd line range for TOI. The point being their aggregate stats shouldn't be measured against other 4th liners given their ice time is significantly higher.

2. Agreed

3. I wasn't using singular stats in a vacuum. Rather than cherry picking individual numbers, I presented multiple metrics when I was making an assertion. I gave four numbers regarding Hagelin's defensive play, for instance, not just xGA. I did leave out the numbers that pointed the other way, but that's because those numbers are the outliers that disagree with the rest.

Further still, I'd argue that Hagelin's xGF isn't particularly accurate given his unique ability to turn a scoring chance into a muffin shot into the goalie's crest. xGF is based on aggregate shooting statistics to determine the relative danger of various scoring chances, and it's been argued before that the Capitals (particularly in the Trotz-era) could outshoot their metrics given their exceptional scoring talent. Well, Hagelin is the opposite there. He's a guy who has demonstrated a repeatable knack to turn high and medium danger scoring chances into nothing burger shots that present no danger to the goaltender. The scoring chance still gets logged, which helps his xGF, but in reality there was never an expected goal there because the shooter wasn't a viable threat.

 

[caps4cup]

1. Among the 392 forwards who have skated 25+ games (ie full regulars, not the typical 4th line rotational guy), Hatheway ranks 222 in EVTOI/GP. They're in the higher end of 3rd line or lower end of 2nd line range for TOI. The point being their aggregate stats shouldn't be measured against other 4th liners given their ice time is significantly higher.

2. Agreed

3. I wasn't using singular stats in a vacuum. Rather than cherry picking individual numbers, I presented multiple metrics when I was making an assertion. I gave four numbers regarding Hagelin's defensive play, for instance, not just xGA. I did leave out the numbers that pointed the other way, but that's because those numbers are the outliers that disagree with the rest.

Further still, I'd argue that Hagelin's xGF isn't particularly accurate given his unique ability to turn a scoring chance into a muffin shot into the goalie's crest. xGF is based on aggregate shooting statistics to determine the relative danger of various scoring chances, and it's been argued before that the Capitals (particularly in the Trotz-era) could outshoot their metrics given their exceptional scoring talent. Well, Hagelin is the opposite there. He's a guy who has demonstrated a repeatable knack to turn high and medium danger scoring chances into nothing burger shots that present no danger to the goaltender. The scoring chance still gets logged, which helps his xGF, but in reality there was never an expected goal there because the shooter wasn't a viable threat.

I think it would be better to compare HDH’s TOI/GP to the other Caps forwards versus the league as a whole, no? I completely agree that they’re probably playing about a minute more per game at 5v5 than they should be, but I think it’s also greatly exaggerated on this board just how much they’re actually playing.

I also agree about Hagelin’s lack of finishing too. But his on ice xGF/60 would be more what the team is creating when he’s on the ice, so not affected (as much) by his poor finishing ability. I would say he’s still decent at generating offense through the forecheck and pressuring the puck, as that’s about the only way he can do so. That’s why he’s been able to play with higher end players and be successful, even if he isn’t the same player he was then. He did a good job of getting pucks back and getting them to more skilled players who did a better job of creating and finishing chances.

He’s not as good as he has been the prior seasons and he’s not worth his price tag, but I also don’t really think he’s a problem on his own. I would like to see his defensive analytics improve back to prior years’s numbers but we will see. I would also be completely down with getting rid of him and bringing up AJF (which is unlikely) but I do think the HDH hand wringing is overblown. They’re a good 4th line that is being slightly over played, likely due to the fact that the Caps have been without 2 or 3 top 9 forwards at a time for most of the season.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

hello. connor mcmichael didnt even get 8 mins in a game he scored a goal. i am eternally confused. have a great day.

If you score a goal Lavi will sit you on the bench. Makes perfect sense...because reasons!

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

I think the problem most folks have with Hagelin is his cap number, no? It doesn’t look bad when you compare him to similar players BUT Hershey does have a number of prospects who seem like they could fill his shoes, albeit maybe not as great on the PK (even though the PK is dogsh*t right now so maybe that doesn’t even matter). That’s just my two cents. I’d rather spend that cash somewhere else.

 

[YippieKaey]

I don't think any part of this paragraph is particularly accurate.

HDH has been a solid but unspectacular line this year, not one of the best 4th lines in the league. Hatheway's raw totals are impressive, but that's also in large part because of the tons of minutes (borderline 2nd line minuets) that HDH gets. But most importantly, HDH's performance oscillates just as much as the rest of the line-up, yet their ice time never seems to fall because of it. Among Capitals forwards, only Tom Wilson and Lars Eller take as many or more penalties than each of the HDH trio this season, and many of HDH's have been offensive zone and/or 3rd period back breakers. Yet, HDH is still regularly deployed in the 3rd period and in offensive zone situations. They don't find themselves stapled to the bench for the bulk of close games like other players on the roster (even if those other players have scored goals or made other positive plays in that very game). When HDH slips up, and they do slip up as much as any other line on this team, they are still trotted right back out on the ice their next shift.

Isolating on Hagelin specifically, even if he was the player you claim he is, he would still be a $2.75M PK specialist providing zero offense. That's not a good use of his cap hits or the even strength minutes he receives. But, even more importantly, he's not the consistent player you claim he is. Hagelin's defensive play has been poor this season. Among regular Capitals forwards (16GP or more to include Backstrom), Hagelin ranks 3rd worst in xGA/60, 4th worst in Scoring Chances Against/60, 4th worst in High Danger Chances Against/60, and 3rd worst is xGF%. And he's doing this while simultaneously suppressing the Caps Goals For rate more than any other Capitals forward outside of Brett Leason. Plus there's this fun fact, in the 32 minutes Dowd and Hatheway have played together without Hagelin on their line, they've scored 3 goals for and had 0 scored against them, had an xGF rate of 58.88% and a HDCF% rate of 88.89%. It's a very limited and noisy sample, but it also matches up with past data from prior seasons. Dating back to Dowd and Hatheway's arrival, they have over 400 minutes of 5on5 time without Hagelin. In that time their CF% is ~3% better, FF% is ~3.5% better, SF% is about ~1.6% better, GF% is nearly 4% better, and xGF is almost 6% better without Hagelin than with him. It fully appears that the 4th line chemistry is between Dowd and Hatheway, and Hagelin is just along for the ride (and in some cases is dragging them down).

I would love to see Hathaway & Dowd play with someone with similar speed but more finish, like Connor Sheary. That would make them a really good 3rd line that would be very difficult to match up with.

 

[Hivemind]

I think it would be better to compare HDH’s TOI/GP to the other Caps forwards versus the league as a whole, no? I completely agree that they’re probably playing about a minute more per game at 5v5 than they should be, but I think it’s also greatly exaggerated on this board just how much they’re actually playing.

Keep in mind you're posting this in a GDT in which the Capitals even-strength ice time leaders among forwards were Hatheway, Hagelin, and Dowd. When Ovie was missing, they became the default top line.

HDH's deployment has been trending this direction for a while as well. See this graphic posted by twabby in another thread:

It's not just 1 game, it's been a trend:

View attachment 505467

McMichael has been given less and less ice time as the season has gone on, while the 4th line has been given more time (Hagelin is used as a proxy).

I also agree about Hagelin’s lack of finishing too. But his on ice xGF/60 would be more what the team is creating when he’s on the ice, so not affected (as much) by his poor finishing ability. I would say he’s still decent at generating offense through the forecheck and pressuring the puck, as that’s about the only way he can do so. That’s why he’s been able to play with higher end players and be successful, even if he isn’t the same player he was then. He did a good job of getting pucks back and getting them to more skilled players who did a better job of creating and finishing chances.

When he's one of the only three forwards on the ice, his poor finishing ability also does impact the vast difference between his xGF/60 and GF/60. To put it another way, since they've joined Washington, the HDH trio has a GF/60 of 2.19 at 5v5. Dowd and Hatheway on the ice together without Hagelin have a GF/60 of 2.81. Dowd and Hatheway xGF/60's also jump without Hagelin (2.59 vs 2.33), but the difference is much smaller. It's pretty clear that Hagelin has a measurable net negative effect on the finishing ability of that line, and that it has become even more prominent this season. And, as noted, he's also not a positive influence on their chance generation as a whole, and I think the eye test matches that with the amount of times he's stymied a rush or offensive possession with a poor turnover, wasted shot, or errant pass. He's a guy who hustles and tries hard, but he's not a particularly great fore checker. He gets deep, but he rarely actually causes a change in possession or forces a dump out.

He’s not as good as he has been the prior seasons and he’s not worth his price tag, but I also don’t really think he’s a problem on his own. I would like to see his defensive analytics improve back to prior years’s numbers but we will see. I would also be completely down with getting rid of him and bringing up AJF (which is unlikely) but I do think the HDH hand wringing is overblown. They’re a good 4th line that is being slightly over played, likely due to the fact that the Caps have been without 2 or 3 top 9 forwards at a time for most of the season.

I genuinely think he's a boat anchor dragging down a lot of this line-up, both in terms of the cap resources invested in him and the ice time he sees. His lack of offensive production is a legitimate issue (and every comment about a "200 ft game" I see makes my eyes roll back in my head because he's completely lacking the forward part of that 200 ft game) in its own right, but it's also been a cause for decline in his overall effectiveness. His poor offensive zone plays have directly led to goals against (and not just the own goal). Even his value as a PKer is diminishing, with the PKs struggles over the past ~2months. If HDH was paid and played like a 4th line, I don't think there would be this much scrutiny. But they aren't.